NFL Survivor Pool Week 8

Lost one more this week after San Diego actually made a comeback to win a game for once.  Seven remain with 10 weeks left...

Leaderboard

NFL Survivor Pool Week 7

As a Steelers fan, I have to admit I saw that loss coming from a mile away.  We lay one of those eggs every year.  To the six of you that they knocked out... Heed this warning for next year.

Leaderboard

NFL Survivor Pool Week 6

What a week!  We did it, as we lost.... NOBODY!!  What the hell?!  Can some of you people start messing up?!

Leaderboard

NFL Survivor Pool Week 5

Seven more out (thanks Zona), 15 remain.  Congrats to the 15 remaining for making it as far as EVERYONE last year!

Week 5 Pick
Scoreboard

NFL Survivor Pool Week 4 & Payouts

Pretty much a blank this week after Miami just escaped from the vaunted Cleveland Browns.  If you used em this week, you're probably glad you can't use Miami again.  If you didn't use em, after that performance, they might as well be dead to you.

22 warriors of light remain as we enter October, which is always a treat as we see what pink gear the NFL has dreamt up this year.  Here's everything you all need:

Leaderboard
Week 4 Pick Form

Keep in mind that in addition to a Thursday game, we also have a London game between the Colts & Jags starting at 9:30 AM, so if you want to pick that mess, plan accordingly.

Lastly, payouts!  We'll keep the 60/30/10 from last year:

1st: $700
2nd: $350
3rd: $130

NFL Survivor Pool Week 3

Two weeks in and we've already weeded out half the pool.  Last year, no one even made it to week 6... I don't know if we'll beat that this year either!

Week 3 Pick Form
Leaderboard

Week 2 Pick Form

Here's your Week 2 pick form:

Week 2 Pick

Also, here's the leaderboard once again.  Please use your display name when entering picks.  16 out, 43 remain.

Leaderboard

NFL Survivor Pool Leaderboard & Week 1 Picks

Alright, the moment you've been waiting for - Here's the season leaderboard!

Leaderboard

Picks remain open until the last game of the weekend (so tell your friends or hell, just re-enter when Seattle blows it against Miami).  Here's the pick breakdown as of 1 PM if you're curious who to root against.  Good luck this season everyone!

Week 1 Selection

Arizona	3
Atlanta	1
Baltimore	2
Buffalo	0
Chicago	0
Cincinnati	2
Cleveland	0
Dallas	0
Detroit	0
Green Bay	2
Houston	6
Indianapolis	3
Jacksonville	0
Kansas City	8
Los Angelas	1
Miami	0
Minnesota	1
New England	0
New Orleans	0
NY Giants	1
NY Jets	0
Oakland	0
Philadelphia	3
Pittsburgh	3
San Diego	0
Seattle	10
San Francisco	0
Tampa Bay	0
Tennessee	1
Washington	0

Arizona	3	6.4%
Atlanta	1	2.1%
Baltimore	2	4.3%
Buffalo	0	0%
Chicago	0	0%
Cincinnati	2	4.3%
Cleveland	0	0%
Dallas	0	0%
Detroit	0	0%
Green Bay	2	4.3%
Houston	6	12.8%
Indianapolis	3	6.4%
Jacksonville	0	0%
Kansas City	8	17%
Los Angelas	1	2.1%
Miami	0	0%
Minnesota	1	2.1%
New England	0	0%
New Orleans	0	0%
NY Giants	1	2.1%
NY Jets	0	0%
Oakland	0	0%
Philadelphia	3	6.4%
Pittsburgh	3	6.4%
San Diego	0	0%
Seattle	10	21.3%
San Francisco	0	0%
Tampa Bay	0	0%
Tennessee	1	2.1%
Washington	0	0%

2016 NFL Survivor Pool

Summer is winding down.  That sucks b/c it’s going to get cold soon.  However, it’s great because we can all stop pretending we care about baseball and focus on entertaining sports, like football.  That means it's time for the time honored tradition of a good ol’ Survivor Pool.  Yep, no terribly fancy bells or whistles here… Except the tiebreaker of course.

Rules

• Pick one team a week to win their game outright.  If you choose correctly, congrats!  You live to fight another week.  Choose wrong, and it’s GAME OVER MAN. 
• You may only choose a team ONCE throughout the season.  Look, any idiot could pick against the 49ers every week (except their bye) and laugh all the way to the bank.  Sorry, you can’t use the other NFC West teams twice each.
• Picks will be submitted via a Google Form I post to our world famous blog (tourneypools.blogspot.com) as well as emailed out once I have wrangled up all the email addresses for participants.  The first week form will have a lot of questions (name, email, blood type, the usual stuff) so I know who to pay and how to contact you.  Subsequent weeks will just ask for your Entry Name and your pick.  Here is the Week 1 Form.
• Entries will be $20 each & multiple entries are allowed.  As usual, the easiest way to pay me is PayPal to tourneypools@gmail.com or Venmo to tourneypools@gmail.com.  If that is a bridge too far, find me and give me money/a check.
• Entry deadline each week will be prior to the kickoff of the Sunday 1 PM ET games.  Picking any Thursday/Saturday games is fine, but those picks must be in prior to their actual kickoff for them to count.
• It is YOUR RESPONSIBILITY to know which entries have which teams still alive & to submit entries on time.  I will not babysit you.  If you submit an entry using a team that you have previously used, or you fail to submit an entry prior the 1 PM ET kickoff of Sunday games, you’ll get the biggest favorite for the Sunday/Monday games based on the lines at http://www.bovada.lv, which is the website I use to check lines.
• I will be maintaining a leaderboard with all selections that you will be able to find a link to on our world famous blog (tourneypools.blogspot.com) once I have put it up.
• Just to cut this question off at the pass, if everyone is out prior to Week 8, I'll more than likely start another pool with the same rules, so be on the lookout for that.  Last year, everyone was knocked out by Week 4, so this is very possible.

Payouts

• 100% of the pool will be paid out & we will pay out the number of entries based on the number of participants.
• Payout structure will be announced sometime between week 1 and week 2 & will be posted on our world famous blog (tourneypools.blogspot.com).
• There are no ties at TourneyPools, if we can help it.  Here’s the tiebreaking procedure in the event that we have multiple people go out the same week and have finished high enough to get paid…

1. Margin of victory for your picks.
2. Margin of yards from scrimmage for your picks.  (Offense only, no special teams or turnover returns or whatever else you can think of.)  If this is somehow negative for a week, it will be rounded up to 0.

• If the tiebreaker rules are confusing, no worries, I’ll be tracking them on the leaderboard.

Questions/Comments

Email: tourneypools@gmail.com

PayPal ID: tourneypools@gmail.com

Our World Famous Blog: tourneypools.blogspot.com

2016 Derby Discussion

If you are in our Derby betting pool, all bets will be tracked on this spreadsheet...

Betting Spreadsheet 

Hey all,

Tired of trying to find all of our amazing Derby posts?  Well, now you don't have to!  Just bookmark this post and we'll update it each time we post.  First, here's our betting pool if you want to join in...

2016 Derby/Oaks Betting Pool

And now, our thread...
The "Way Too Early" Pre-Postposition Draw Banter That Probably Means Nothing


Part 1 - Phil - The Overview
Part 2 - David - Embrace the Madness
Part 3 - Phil - How Mad is the Madness?
Part 4 - David - Why Mad is the Madness Mad Mad
Part 5 - Phil - Odds And Exaggerator
Part 6 - David - One Week Out Thoughts
Part 7 - Phil - Freaking Shagaf?!
Part 8 - David - Shagaf The Chain!
Part 9 - Phil - History Repeats Itself
Part 10 - David - How Bad Is Cheap Speed In The Derby?
Part 11 - Phil - Who I Actually Like
Part 14 - David - The Derby Card is Posted


Oaks Talk

Part 12 - David - Oaks You Glad I Didn't Say Shagaf?
Part 13 - Phil - Let's Be Careful Out There



Derby Field Comprehesive Analysis With Stupid TV Quotes


Part 15 - Phil - Two Minutes in the Valley
Part 16 - David - It's Always Sunny In The Derby



Final Thoughts

Coming soon!

Derby 2016 - Part 16 (David) - It's Always Sunny In The Derby

Ok, Philip did a pretty good job on these Silicon Valley quotes...so now it's time for my entry in:

The Great Crone Brothers Derby Horse Pop Culture Reference Comparison Game

That's a working title....but it's pretty God damn good, huh? Basically, this works as follows: I pick a quote that I think fits a horse and give a quick explanation on why it makes sense it my twisted brain. This year, I've chosen to use quotes from It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia to describe the runners in the Derby field, without further ado, here they are you jabroni's....

Mac: Don't you get it dude? They'll always be "At Capacity" for us.

Charlie: I don't get it at all, is that what he said?

Mac: Don't you get it? We got big timed dude. He called us lower class!

Not everyone can get into the Derby field. Some of them are being Big Timed and being told the Derby is "At Capacity." This year that distinction falls to LAOBAN and CHERRY WINE who find themselves on the Also Eligible list and will only get in the race if another horse scratches.

Dennis: Frank don't be a moron! You start cutting bonuses and you'll lose your top guys. You gotta separate the wheat from the chaff somehow.

Mac: Yeah, and these guys are all chaff!

Separating the wheat from the chaff is hard in a race that seems so full of chaff...I mean, unless your Mac who thinks the chaff is what you want to be...to be clear, the chaff is the portion of the field that is unusable, and in this field that designation goes to OSCAR NOMINATED and TOM'S READY. I can make some case for virtually every other horse in the field to potentially at least have a reason to hit the board. I can find no reason at all to suggest OSCAR NOMINATED or TOM'S READY can get a piece.

Dennis: Let me explain to you guys a little something about how class works.You're born into class, it's about pedigree, it's about upbringing, it has nothing to do with your present circumstances.

LANI and TROJAN NATION are two of the best bred runners in the Derby field. Sired by Tapit and Street Cry respectively, they have the pedigree and upbringing to be truly high class. However, their present circumstances leave much to be desired...

Dennis: As I tried to explain before, you cannot get honey from a hornet's nest.
Charlie: I just don't think there's any science to support that, buddy.

GUN RUNNER and BRODY'S CAUSE each won major Derby preps, the Louisiana Derby and Blue Grass Stakes respectively. So, a lot of people think they're legit contenders. Just like they seem kind of legit, hornet seem kind of like bees...but, they aren't going to be making any honey on Saturday.

Dennis: Open a leather shop in Arizona? Are you serious? There are far too many leather shops in Arizona as it is! Why, you would be out of business in a week's time!

There are too many leather shops in Arizona, and there are too many dead closers in this freaking Derby field. I don't like any of them, because there is no real valid way to distinguish between them. They all look exactly the same to me. So, SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS, CREATOR, WHITMORE, and MY MAN SAM are all horses I want to play against.


Charlie: In Scooby Doo secret tunnels are always behind shelves, there's gotta be one.
Dennis: Could we not base our decisions on what does or does not happen in episodes of Scooby Doo!?

Philip I feel like you're basing your liking DANZING CANDY on what happens in 8 horse maiden fields. There I love to bet cheapish speed horses. In the Derby I do not.

Mac: We're not men who get a lot of opportunities. Every one we've had, we've squandered,

It is highly unusual for a maiden, a horse that's never won a race, to make it into the Derby field, but this year TROJAN NATION has done just that. Every chance he's had so far he has squandered, and now he has another chance, and he has a very high probability of squandering this one as well.

Charlie: Pears weird me out, dude. Where do you start with a pear? The bottom? The top?

The two horses in this field I have the absolute worst reads on are MO TOM and MAJESTO. I don't know what to make of them. One minute I think they're complete tosses, the next I'm trying to talk myself into thinking they're usable. At the end of the day, I just don't know what to do with them.


Dennis: I don't think he has a point. I'm a stallion.
Mac: Oh, uh, ooohhh, this is messy. Look buddy, 2003 Dennis was a Grade A prime beefcake, no one is disputing that, but 2008 Dennis is in decline...

No one is disputing that NYQUIST was the best two-year-old colt in the country last year. But, three-year-old NYQUIST seems to be in decline to me. The distance isn't ideal, he doesn't seem to be improving. Let's beat a Derby favorite for a change.


Mac: I'm gonna go out there and take a wicked slap shot, ya know, really make a name for myself. Otherwise, I go out there, I look like a jabroni.

OUTWORK isn't going to be some jabroni and let some other horse beat him early. He's gonna go out there and take a wicked slap shot, or in racing terms, be a part of the pace. He just needs to hope it works out better for him than it did for Mac.


Charlie: I'm getting sick of this shit! I really am. You keep treating me like a dumb-dumb and a grunt. I have potential ya know. I could go places. I could do things. Who knows? I might even rule the world some day.

I think MOR SPIRIT and DESTIN seem to be trending towards being two horses that are overlooked a bit, but have as good a chance as any to win on Saturday. They're not exactly longshots, but they should both be top four choices, and I'm not sure either will be in the betting public's top 6.


Dennis: I swallowed some apple seeds today.
Mac: Did you make yourself throw up?
Dennis: I tried...but, I couldn't.
Mac: Smoke some cigarettes. The smoke will suffocate the bacteria in your stomach.

This comparison is a bit of a stretch, but I wasn't not going to use this quote. MOHAYMEN ran bad in the Florida Derby, it was like he had a belly full of toxic apple seeds or something. But, he was five for five heading to that race, and I think in a field this bad, I'm willing to forgive that effort if the price is ok.


Mac: Maybe this whole thing isn't about meeting girls. Maybe it's about having an adventure, you know, an open ocean adventure. Take a look at this guy. How'd he lose that hand? I betcha it was some kind of crazy adventure, right? Let's find out...Hey bro, how'd you lose that hand?
Guy: Diabetes
Dennis: Oh....
Mac: Uh, that's not much of an adventure is it? Kind of tragic actually....

I really struggled to find a quote I thought fit my feelings on EXAGGERATOR. On one hand, I think he has a shot versus this group, on another I think he's overrated off a dream trip over a surface he loved in the Santa Anita Derby. I think you look at his speed figure and think, "Wow, this horse must be amazing!", but the real story is probably more likely that it was just a dream set-up. I think the quote works, because the the story you expect isn't really the story you get.


Mac: I'm not gonna stand here and present some egghead, scientific argument based on fact. I'm just a regular dude. I like to drink beer. I love my family. Rock, flag, and eagle, right Charlie?
Charlie: He's got a point.

SHAGAF is still one of my top picks. I've already made the arguments, so I'm not going to here.

Derby 2016 Discussion - Part 15 - Phil - Two Minutes in the Valley

Just to quickly hit on your thoughts on the card… We agree too much on the stakes races.  This is never good.  For the Humana Distaff, we’ll end up talking ourselves into Wavell Avenue, which is likely the correct move.  CD Handicap I agree there too, but Holy Boss could steal it on the lead.  And yes, the Turf Classic looks like the exact type of race where we go all out against the two favorites b/c they have a ton of legitimate questions, and then one of them wins.  Bolo was the one I was looking at as well – 1-1/8 miles hits him right in the head.

Ok, now the Derby itself.  The main event.  The post you all really came to read.  As usual, we’ll steal liberally from Bill Simmons and each compare the field to quotes or characters from a popular TV show.  I’ve stared at the race probably longer than I needed to, and my witty weapon of choice this year involves these guys….

Also, for each horse, I’ll include in parentheses what I think are the fair odds for each horse.  In effect, those are the odds I think the horse should be in.  Ok, let’s get to it!

Richard: Since when do we have an intern program?

Erlich: We don’t.  And when Keith finds that out, it’s going to be a very valuable business lesson to him.

For Laoban (999,999/1) & Cherry Wine (999,999/1), who are stuck on the also eligible list. Guys, no horse draws in off the also eligible list.  Just pack it up and head to Baltimore for the Preakness now and save yourself the extra van ride.

Richard: Am I not dressed formally enough?  Should I zip up the hoodie before the meeting?

For Trojan Nation (199/1), Oscar Nominated (199/1), Lani (199/1), & Majesto (199/1).  You all do not belong, and we knew it the moment we laid eyes on you.  There’s the door.  Good luck running through it in under 2 minutes 10 seconds.

Jared: If I use you as references, can I count on you to say nice things about me?  Be honest.

Guilfoyle: Do you want me to be honest or nice?

For Tom’s Ready (99/1), who I really want to just throw on the trashpile.  However, he’s trained by Dallas Stewart, who has an uncanny ability to have bad closers run 2^nd in the Derby.  Tom’s Ready has run 9 times – 1 win, 4 second place finishes.  It’s almost destiny.

Erlich: Richard, I know that you look at me and see a guy who has it all figured out.

Erlich does not have it all figured out, and neither does Brody’s Cause (99/1).  Sure he won the Blue Grass, but I remain unimpressed by his lack of talent.

Guilfoyle: He’s not gonna do shit.  He’s a coder.  By definition, we’re all pussies.

For both Mo Tom (99/1) and Whitmore (49/1), both closers on the slow-ish side that look like they could take some money just b/c people aren’t totally sure who to bet.  I don’t see it ending well for either of them.

Attorney: Do you have any skill at all, other that magically failing your way to the top?

Big Head: I have a boat.

For Gun Runner (49/1), who is 2-for-2 in Louisiana and somehow ended the prep season earning more Derby qualifying points than any other horse.  He’s just slow though.  His top Beyer is a 91, slower than even Trojan Nation’s top.  He’s had a far better prep season than he’s ever deserved, and I don’t see the magic continuing.

Erlich: Ask me what 9 times F is.  It’s Fleventy-Five.

For Shagaf (33/1), but really more for David thinking he’s answered the big question of who to bet in the Derby with his answer being this horse.  It’s pretty much nonsense.

Erlich: What?  Revenue?  No, no, no, no, no.  No.  If you show revenue, people will ask “How much?”  But if you have no revenue, you can say you’re pre-revenue.  You’re a pure potential play.  It’s not about how much you earn, it’s about what you’re worth.  And who’s worth the most?  Companies that lose money.  Pinterest, Snapchat… No revenue.  Amazon has lost money every f**king quarter for the last 20 f**king years, and that Bezos mother**ker is the king.

For Creator (19/1), who was way more interesting until he actually got a good ride from Ricardo Santana and won the Arkansas Derby with a solid but not great 96 Beyer.  I feel like I know what his ceiling is now, and it isn’t enough to win the Derby.

Richard: I always knew I was missing something, and then when someone explained the concept of “game,” I remember very distinctly thinking “That’s what I don’t have.”

For My Man Sam (19/1), who I do kind of like, but I can’t totally explain why I can’t get on board him even finishing in the top half of this group.  He ran a sneaky good race two back in an allowance field against eventual Wood Memorial 2^nd choice Matt King Coal when he had no pace to run at.  Then he ran a really good 2^nd in the Blue Grass, probably running better than Brody’s Cause.  But he just doesn’t quite look fast enough, and that big number he ran in the allowance two back was in no way validated by his or Matt King Coal’s next starts.

Erlich: You just brought piss to a shit fight!

The greatest scene ever committed to television is for Mor Spirit (19/1).  I think he’s ok, but I really have trouble seeing how this ends well for him.  He feels like the type of horse we use more heavily than we should b/c he feels like a “safe” play.  Has one of those really ever worked out?  You’re really only betting him off his solid San Felipe effort, which was just a bizarre race given how Exaggerator rushed up early and Danzing Candy just somehow ran ‘em off their feet.  We’ll probably use him, but I don’t feel great about it.

Gavin: F**k!

Audious: Invalid Command.

Gavin: F**k!

For Suddenbreakingnews (19/1), who I think has some talent.  However, you can just tell he’s going to try and do what he’s tried to do every start of this Derby season – sit dead last and try to circle the entire field.  That doesn’t work, especially in a Derby without much early speed.

Erlich: If you’re not an asshole, this company dies.

For Danzing Candy (19/1), who breaks from post 20 and only has one plan in this race – break quickly, immediately veer over to the rail as fast as possible, and hang on.  I could see him messing something up early, but he has no choice.  He must be used by virtue of being the only real early speed horse in the entire race, but man it’s tough to feel good about it.

Gavin: I don’t know about you people, but I don’t want to live in a world where someone else makes the world a better place better than we do.

For Outwork (19/1), who I think would really want to do what Danzing Candy is going to do, but can’t quite do it well enough.  Outwork feels like a horse that needs the lead, but I doubt his connections are going to be willing to commit to it.  I don’t think it ends particularly well for him, but he must be considered if he can all the sudden prove he can sit off the pace.

Richard: Jobs was a poser.  He didn’t even code.

Could this be for anyone but Nyquist (15/1)?  We’ve talked our Nyquist hatred to death at this point, but just to put a bow on it.  Nyquist is a nice horse, but he’s not a Derby horse.  He’s going to have a good season when he finally drops back to running sprint to mile races and not pretending he’s a 1-1/4 mile horse. 

Russ Hanneman: I’m that much closer to re-billionizing!

For Mohaymen (12/1), who is far too similar to the accidental billionaire Russ Hanneman.  Mohaymen always struck as the type horse that was a Derby favorite by proxy.  I know you can spin the case for him that had he run “his race” in the Florida Derby, he wins it.  But, the Florida Derby wasn’t much of a field.  “His race” can win the Florida Derby, but I don’t know if it can win the Kentucky Derby.  He needs a big step forward Saturday, and others just seem more likely to take that step.

Richard: I have a meeting with Gavin Belson.  He wants to talk about Pied Piper.

Erlich: I own 10% of Pied Piper.

Richard: You said it was a shitty idea.

Erlich: It WAS a shitty idea.  I don’t know what it is now.

For Destin (5/1), who remains one of the biggest puzzles in this race.  On the plus side, he’s run two of the fastest preps so far this season and he has a running style that looks to set him up perfectly for this race.  On the other hand, he’s never really run a step outside of his two races at Tampa and he’s off an eight week layoff, which is about three weeks longer than you’d probably like.  There’s so much value here at his 15/1 morning line that I think you just have to say he’s a horse getting more talented more quickly than the rest of the field and use him heavily in any bets.

Erlich: We are trending up, boys!  We are trending up!

For Exaggerator (9/2), who looks to be peaking at the right time.  There’s definitely questions abound given that he’s going to likely try to close from far back, but he’s just faster than this group on paper.  It’s really hard for me to believe that he doesn’t figure in to the finish barring some horrendous trouble, which is unfortunately possible for a horse like him.  I also think Battaglia’s 8/1 morning line isn’t happening here.  I’m thinking he’s closer to 5/1 by post time.

Derby 2016 - Part 14 (David) -The Derby Card is Posted

Well, it actually sounds like we're pretty much on the same page for much of the Oaks card. That's either a really good sign or a really bad sign...

Really, the more I look at the Oaks, the more I think it could end up being mayhem. If Rachel's Valentina take a big step forward in her second three-year-old start, she will probably win. If she doesn't, something crazy could happen. There's a lot of speed in here, and if the race falls apart some would it be that crazy to see Mokat or Royal Obsession get first run on the leaders and hang on? I'd love to be alive to a bunch here in the pick 5, and think we actually like some horses in the pick 5 races so maybe that's an actual possibility.

Shifting gears back to the Derby...post positions were drawn and the whole card is out now. Some quick thoughts:

3rd Race - The Derby Day Maiden Special Weight is one of my favorite races of the year. It gave us Masochistic before. This year I don't see any roided up freaks like him, but I do see a very interesting runner that some people might miss.....the 10 horse, Jimbo Fallon, has only made one start and it came one year ago at Santa Anita. He hasn't run since and Baffert has what looks to be a second tier jockey on him while Baffert's other runner in the race, Jazzy Times, has top jockey Javier Castellano aboard. But, Jimbo is the horse that has been OUTWORKING Derby horse Mor Spirit for the last two weeks. Obviously, the afternoon is different than the AM, but this could end up being a very interesting betting race.

5th Race - I've only glanced at this race so far, but Salengo at 20/1 on the morning line seems absurd. He won his debut by 6 beating What's Your Thesis who was VERY impressive at Churchill yesterday. Last time out he ran into freakish sprinter Limousine Liberal. The distance is a question mark, but if he's close to 20/1 it's an absurd overlay.

6th Race (The Distaff Turf Mile) - Tepin is probably a lock, but she's fun to watch at least I guess. Sucks betting wise though.

7th Race (The Churchill Downs) - I've always hated Kobe's Back. Not really sold on Calculator or Salutos Amigos being top class sprinters either. Disliking those leaves you with some enticing prices on others. If Speighster can come off the lay-off in top form I don't know if any sprinter in America can beat him.

8th Race (The Humana Distaff) - Tons of speed in here. I think Taris prefers two turns. Not a bad race, but I don't love anything yet.

11th Race (The Turf Classic) - Bolo REALLY intrigues me at first blush. The two favorites in here, Big Blue Kitten and Slumber, are both 8 years old, and they both made their last starts 6 months ago in the Breeders' Cup. They're both really solid, but if they've lost a half step off the shelf and at 8 it makes this a race that could produce a price. There's a number of intriguing price plays here.

The Derby - Been discussing it for days, the post draw happened yesterday. I don't think anything really occurred that changed my thoughts much. Danzing Candy drawing the 20 probably ensured a somewhat solid pace as he'll have to hustle some to try and clear everything and get closer to the rail. We'll finish Derby thoughts soon I'm sure, right brother?

Derby 2016 Discussion - Part 13 - Phil - Let's Be Careful Out There

So it sounds like you think the Oaks card could produce some weirdness late in the card but not sure where it's coming from?  Hmmm... I think I agree, something stupid could happen - especially in the Oaks itself - but this isn't a card that's really screaming at me to bet it.  Really, let's just be careful not to go nuts, especially if the Saturday card looks good.  Compared to our usual Oaks betting goes, I think we back off this one a little bit save a bit of a shot at the late pick 4 & maaaaaybe a small pick 5 singling Carina Mia.

Quick hits on the five other stakes races...

La Troienne - I don't buy Curlina as a real two turn horse and think Sheer Drama crushes this field; could be some value underneath.
Eight Belles - Yeah, Carina Mia all day.
Turf Sprint - Always a stupid race, but I say go deep in a pick 4 and take anything that looks like it can get the lead early.  Churchill turf sprints are generally dominated by speed.  Latent Revenge is a super dumb one that could forget to stop on the lead at 20/1.
Alysheba - If Noble Bird loves Churchill as much as he appeared to last year, he should beat these.  I wouldn't sleep on Majestic Affair, a Chad Brown improving four year-old that is 2-for-2 going two turns.
Edgewood - It's a mess if you don't like Catch a Glimpse.  Luckily, she should air.

Ok, now the Oaks itself.  It's a little easier to talk about some of these together, but I'll get the easy ones out of the way first.

Instant tosses - Dream Dance, Mo d'Amour, Venus Valentine, Taxable
Pretty easy tosses after those - Terra Promessa, Mokat, Paola Queen

Now, the others I'm not a big fan of....

Weep No More - I really just don't trust that race was as fast as the Beyers say, and Weep was running down a horse who has done her best running at one turn and one off a six month layoff.  Pass.
Cathryn Sophia - Like I said above, she looks like a one turn horse to me.  Just not a lot of value here.
Land Over Sea - She'll take money just for constantly finishing second to Songbird, but that Cali group was sooooooo bad.  Her FG Oaks win last out was over nothing.  Not a fan.
Lewis Bay/Royal Obsession - I wanted to like Lewis Bay, but I'm not sure why.  This isn't a "me" horse.  She won the Demoiselle last year, but it was pretty slow.  Then she ran second to Cathryn Sophia by seven lengths bc, well, something had to run 2nd.  And the Gazelle was a good effort, but I really don't think much of Royal Obsession, who was second there.  RO was handily beaten by Venus Valentine prior to the Gazelle.  Venus was an instant toss for me, so that's not good.  Just not sure there's a lot of talent here.

So that leaves me with Rachel Valentina & Go Maggie Go.  Rachel should be favored and ran a good race in the Ashland, outdueling Cathryn Sophia before being run down by Weep No More.  But I have questions about that race in general and the price isn't going to be great on Rachel.  So why not Go Maggie Go?  She's 2-for-2 and ran just as fast as anything else in the GP Oaks.  There's also the possibility her debut race is much better than it looks on paper.  Second place runner there Conquest Serenade came back to win her 2nd start at Keeneland, running 14 Beyer points faster than in that race.  She runs in the 2nd race on the Oaks undercard in a solid allowance race, so we'll see if she flatters Maggie there.  Either way, at 12/1 in a race that's pretty underwhelming if you don't buy the three from Keeneland... I'll take a flyer on that.

Derby 2016 Discussion - Part 12 (David) - Oaks You Glad I Didn't Say Shagaf?

Yeah, we can take a little reprieve from the Derby until post positions get drawn tomorrow evening. That gives you some time to realize how amazing Shagaf truly is.

The Oaks card is posted and boy is it a doozy! Actually, I just wanted to write that because it sounded funny in my head. But, really, it's a pretty good card. It looks fairly chalky to me early (i.e. favorites gon' win), but later in the day there's some real chances for big prices.

The lock of the weekend? Carina Mia in The Eight Belles (7th race). This filly is a freak of nature. She would have been my Oaks pick. She may have been my Derby pick. I would be astounded if she lost this race. On a fair track she wins easily, on a speed favoring track she wins by a dozen. If she somehow loses avoid every other speed horse at all costs for the rest of the weekend.

The Pick 4 ending in the Oaks will be tough. The Turf Sprint (race 8) is crazy competitive. Power Alert won this race last year and may be a little price after running bad at Keeneland, but he ran bad at Keeneland last year too. Hootenany is back in the US and has serious talent, he can be a major factor. So can about 5 others in here. This looks like a race where we go deep and hope to get lucky and catch a price.

The Alysheba features Cat Burglar, a horse Victor Espinoza (you know, the Triple Crown winning jockey) told me was a lock last year on the Derby undercard....he lost by 7 lengths that day. That was fun. This is another fairly wide open race, I'll be interested to see morning line's, but Eagle and Noble Bird kind of stand out to me as the two horses that could sit just off the pace and run down the speed late.

The Edgewood goes off right before the Oaks and Catch a Glimpse figures to be tough to beat.

The Oaks itself is a solid race. But, it definitely lost a lot of it's luster when Songbird was scratched. She would have been an obvious favorite not only in the Oaks, but would have been in the Derby as well if they had pointed her there. That leaves Rachel's Valentina as the morning line favorite, and I guess she's the horse to beat. She got caught late by Weep No More in the Ashland, but that was her first start since October 31st and she may have needed one. If she improves off that she will be tough. But, there are a few other usable horses in here.

Go Maggie Go is intriguing anywhere near her 12/1 ML, she's 2 for 2 and has won both starts easily. I think a lot of people will discount Weep No More's Ashland, but she is undefeated around 2 turns and I expect her to be a longer price than her 9/2 ML. She looks like a horse people will possibly dismiss calling the Ashland a fluke, I think she might be legit, but the pace might not be quick enough to set up her run.

Maybe there aren't that many usable horses in the Oaks. Anyone standing out at all to you?  Overall, I'm not seeing too many big prices to love on the card after my initial glance through.

Derby 2016 Discussion - Phil - Part 11 - Who I Actually Like

To quickly return to Danzing Candy, I only used War Emblem and California Chrome to blow up the idea that horses with sprint pedigrees can't win the Derby.  That was the main similarity I was trying to get across.  But you made my point for me regarding DC... if there was ever a year for a speed horse with distance questions to to lull them to sleep and steal a spot in the trifecta, it's this year.  (I hesitate to call him "cheap" speed as it wouldn't shock me if he proves to be one of the better horses in this crop, but just at shorter distances.)  To me, the only difference between Danzing Candy & Nyquist is we know DC has distance limitations.  Nyquist does too, but people don't want to admit it quite yet.

So, I guess you asked a fair question: Who do I like?  Well, I'll list em off...

Destin - I haven't talked about him in a while b/c I haven't seen a reason to.  He's still either my #1 or #2 choice until we get post positions.

Exaggerator - I'm actually surprised you like Exaggerator as much as I do.  He seems like an obvious horse to use in almost all bets.

Danzing Candy - Like I said, I can't toss lone speed when I'm getting 20/1.

Mor Spirit - I'm going to slap a big BEGRUDGINGLY on here.  He feels like he could be this year's safe-ish horse that just never picks up his feet and runs 15th, but that horse is never "obvious" until after the fact.  I think you just have to use him.

Suddenbreakingnews - He seems like the best of all these stupid closers from east of California.  I watched his three preps in Arkansas a day or two ago.  The Southwest was great, the Rebel was a pretty good effort, and he had some trouble in the Arkansas Derby where he didn't get to start his run soon enough.  I think he's going to end up being one of the faster horses on The Sheets when we get a look at those.

Outwork - I'm just tossing him on here b/c we always talk ourselves into one horse on the day of, and Outwork is gonna be that horse.  He's got speed, he's only lost to one horse in his career at two turns - Destin - and he just won the Wood Memorial in a race whe all the other horses near the lead collapsed.  I'll just get out ahead of this one now.

Ok, let's close the book on the pre-race talk.  Oaks card should be up soon.

Derby 2016 Discussion - David - Part 10 - How Bad Is Cheap Speed in the Derby?

Yes, I think Shagaf's Gotham was probably as good as a 92-95 type Beyer race. If he gets that number he is on par with most of this field....and that was his third start. Plus, he's one of the few in here bred to get better going longer. I think he has potential to run a new top, and if he runs a new top off a 93 type number he's good enough to win.

With Danzing Candy it really feels like you're just getting angry and picking a horse you don't really like because you want to like a crazy horse too. Sorry that I have all these awesome reasons to like Shagaf that you didn't think of. Shh bby is ok. Take some deep breaths and relax.

This is a very unsurprising pick because Danzing Candy looks exactly like every other horrible cheap speed horse you've ever wanted to bet on Derby day. He looks like Wildcat Red did (18th in 2014), like Itsmyluckyday did (15th in 2013), and like Trinniberg did (17th in 2012). Should I go back further? Note - I'm not sure if you liked Trinniberg, but I think you made sure we used him.

Comparing Danzing to War Emblem and California Chrome is definitely a huge stretch. War Emblem had just run a 110+ Beyer winning the Illinois Derby (RIP) by 10 or so. California Chrome was coming off a 107 & 106 or something in his final two starts which were both wins by open lengths, and he didn't need the lead. Meanwhile, in Danzing Candy's final prep he got beat by 13 1/4 lengths and was crawling in the last quarter mile.

There is no valid comparison you can use to cast this horse in a positive light, every horse that has ever been a need the lead type that got much slower in their final prep has run awful on Derby day. There are all sorts of years where you can find a bad closer that hits the board in the Derby (Commanding Curve, Golden Soul, Dullahan, Ice Box, Mine That Bird, etc.), but name the last bad speed horse to hit the board...it was probably 2002 when the race ran War Emblem - Proud Citizen who were 1-2 the entire way. Since then here's all the speed that's hit the board:

2015 - AP, Firing Line, and Dortmund were 1-2-3 the whole way. Firing Line may have been cheapish speed.
2014 - California Chrome sat 3rd
2012 - Bodemeister, a freak, couldn't hang on.
2007 - Hard Spun, also freaky, couldn't hang on
2004 - Lion Heart
2003 - Peace Rules (sat 2nd)

I'm pretty sure every one of those horses won their final prep race. And every single one except for Firing Line was under 8/1.

Now, with all that said, if there has EVER been a year for a cheap speed horse to get a piece, this could be it. I don't think he should be a B tier horse, but I could definitely see him as a C.

Ok, so now I know you like Exaggerator and Danzing Candy. It seems like you've kind of locked yourself into liking Mor Spirit as well, because it would make no sense at all for you not to since he has beaten one of those two in his last two preps. You also still seem to like Destin despite not mentioning him in your last 2,000 words or so. Aside from them I feel like you hate everything.

Once again, I like Shagaf and maybe Exaggerator as A's. Mohaymen and Destin I could MAYBE be talked into. But, I was really unimpressed with Destin's last work and I don't buy that he can run back to his TB Derby off the lay-off.

Who else can we like some? Should we go ahead and accept that Mor Spirit is a B that neither of us like making a B? Is one of these closers better than the others for some reason I'm not seeing? Is Majesto maybe improving? Could we like Outwork at all?

Derby 2016 Discussion - Phil - Part 9 - History Repeats Itself

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oomCIXGzsR0


Anyway...


I do get the positives with Shagaf.  There was an obvious track bias on Gotham day.  How many lengths was that worth?  Two?  Three?  It's extremely tough to quantify this stuff.  Let's say he airs in the Gotham on an unbiased day and runs something like a 93.  That feels reasonable, right?  Now, the Wood.  Really, I think he was at the better part of the pace for the Wood.  The Wood fractions were faster than advertised given that the track was slower that day (typical for a sloppy track) and the speed - a horse with the great name of Matt King Coal - totally fell apart as the 3/1 second choice.  Had Shagaf been where he usually was, I don't know if he fires that day.


This feels like a horse that's outclassed and, if you try to correct for all the "trouble" he's had, still ends up right around the Gun Runners of the world in terms of speed.


Once again, you have managed to careen us off a cliff into a maze of absurd logic and crappy horse grandstanding.  And we have this little game every year, where we play chicken with one bad horse each that we want to include heavily in our bets.  You want Shagaf?  Fine, I want Danzing Candy.  Danzing Candy is the controlling speed of this race, and you can make the case for him in his last start that you can for Shagaf - he hated the muddy track in the Santa Anita Derby and he tired far too quickly from it.  He's also one of three horses in this race to run a 100+ Beyer going two turns.  And I get the pedigree issues too.  He's not bred for 1 1/4 miles.  You know who else wasn't bred for this distance?


Him...
or him.


If you're going to force us to add a horse to the bet that probably can't win, how about we include one that we'll at least be able to watch for the first 90 seconds of the race?!

Derby 2016 Discussion - Part 8 (David) - Shagaf The Chain!

I love that this is devolving into a discussion on the merits (or lack thereof) of Shagaf....a horse most people aren't even talking about. And, here he is, the star of the freaking show.

I get that his "bad" Wood Memorial was as fast as his Gotham win. But, that win was pretty good and was only his third start. He got in some tight spots there and ran down a decent lone speed horse on a track that carried everything home on the lead. EIGHT of the ten races on the card were won wire to wire. The other race was won by a horse that was second at the 2nd call. Shagaf was 4th at the second call. He was the only horse on the card that closed all day. That has to count for something.

In his first three starts Shagaf was 1 1/2 lengths off a 46:4 opening half, a neck behind a 46:4 half, and 2 lengths behind a 47 flat half. In the Wood he was 11 lengths off a 46:4 half.......One of these things doesn't seem to fit....Ortiz was pushing him from the word go and getting no response. It's way too bad to believe. How does he suddenly get 2 seconds slower than his previous three starts through the first half mile? I get that his pedigree suggests he should like the mud, but empirical evidence suggests to me that he doesn't. It's Occam's Razor bro, the most logical explanation is that he hated the mud.

So, that's once again my case for Shagaf. Look, I get it, he's not fast. But, against a slow group I think he has much more reason to improve than most. You say Exaggerator only had one real chance to run fast? I would claim that Shagaf has never really had a legit opportunity to run his best.

So, you know where my head is right now. I've basically got the group I could use as top horses narrowed down to Exaggerator, Mohaymen, Destin, and Shagaf. Mor Spirit could sneak into that discussion for me. But, right now, I can't see anything else I'm really wanting to use as an A or B (unless we have to use Nyquist as a B on talent alone...or we decide we like one of these closers more than all the other closers that look exactly alike).

Obviously, I know you disagree on Shagaf. Is there something else you like that I haven't picked up on?

Derby 2016 Discussion - Phil - Part 7 - Freaking Shagaf?!

Oh you would like to lighten things up, but now I have to actually think about Shagaf first.  Freaking crappy ass Shagaf.  DRF has Shagaf listed 18th out of 20 on their watch, and that's... about right.  You can't just toss the Wood Memorial - where he ran 5th with an 87 Beyer, a speed figure that won't even be good enough to win the allowance race carded as the final race by the way - because it was 1) as fast as his "impressive" Gotham win, and 2) he's bred up-and-down to LOVE a sloppy track.  I won't dive into the details of pedigree analysis for the sake of boring people even more then they are already bored, but we both know he has a pedigree to be at least as good in the mud as on a fast track.  Really, I think he's a one turn horse and his connections just haven't admitted it to themselves yet.  I only had one thought when I read your Shagaf take...

Quick hits on some of the others you mentioned...

Danzing Candy - Agreed
Gun Runner - Agreed
Nyquist - Perfect summation of his chances if you ask me
Mohaymen - Mostly agreed; I'm not sure he really does have "potential" though.

Now, let's talk about Mor Spirit a little bit.  Partially, I agree.  I can't stand this horse.  But he at least runs ok every race.  Couldn't he be like Giacomo in that he was knocking on the door for a while, has as much change as any of these horses, and you just know you're going to get a decent race out of him?  I don't know... I struggle to just toss him on the crap pile yet.

And I'll admit that I think you're not wrong about Exaggerator, but he did run a 103 Beyer in the Santa Anita Derby, which is two points faster than Destin in the Tampa Bay Derby and six points faster than anything else.  Six Beyer points is about three lengths in the Derby... which can be the difference between winning and not hitting the board.  They may have been stumbling home too, but on paper, it's tough to deny that anything else has run close to what he's done at two turns.

Derby 2016 Discussion - Part 6 (David) - One Week Out Thoughts

First, I love that you think Exaggerator has only had one chance to run his race and THAT'S why he ran big in the Santa Anita Derby...In the words of our insane father: That race fell apart like a soup sandwich. They went the final quarter mile in 26 and 1/5 seconds....walking home. How much of his visually impressive move was due to the others stumbling through the mud? Also, at this point, have they decided he is at his best as a one run closer? If that's the case he will be back there with Mo Tom, Creator, Suddenbreakingnews, Whitmore, My Man Sam, Brody's Cause, and Trojan Nation trying to weave through a big field. Do you really want to key a one run closer in a race like this?

Exaggerator might be able to be keyed I guess...but if we do key him it will basically be due to a lack of options. Really, I don't want to really key around any of those one run closers, because you just don't know which ones will get miserable trips. A few of them will have nightmare trips and it's guesswork to figure out which ones.

Here's some of the others I don't like right now:

Mor Spirit looks too much like a plodder to me, he hasn't really made an impressive move as those Santa Anita preps fell apart, he just kind of grinds around the track. I don't think those horses win Derbies. Although, again, this isn't a typical Derby in a lot of ways.

Danzing Candy just looks like he's hit his distance limit. Twirling Candy out of a Songandaprayer mare doesn't seem like a Derby pedigree, and the way he stopped in the Santa Anita Derby wasn't inspiring. We'll leave him in a little since we never toss speed, but I can't love him.

Gun Runner just doesn't impress me. He was all over the place weaving in and out down the stretch in the Louisiana Derby and switched to the wrong lead during the stretch as well. I think there are others with more upside.

Nyquist we've covered quite a bit. The price will be too low and he has too many knocks. The lack of much speed in there makes him a threat to hit the board and he COULD win, but he should be 10/1 - 15/1 in my opinion.

So....the horses I feel like I could maybe end up liking are:

Mohaymen - As you've already pointed out, heading into the Florida Derby many people thought he was a stand-out favorite for this race. But, he just didn't look good there at all. He beat six horse fields in the Holy Bull and the Fountain of Youth...and he may be third choice. He's got potential, but there's probably better value elsewhere.

Destin - We both like him some, you maybe do more than me at this point. Obviously, there's plenty to like. Pletcher and Castellano. Won his two preps. One of the few stalkers in the race that figures to get a great trip. But, I am worried about the eight week lay-off. Can he run back to those last couple, or might he regress a bit?

Shagaf - This horse is basically Alpha version 2.0 for me, except he might be worse. Of course, Alpha was a horse I liked in the Derby in 2012. He was also on the slowish side and had also just lost the Wood Memorial, and he was also owned by the Maktoum family. Oh, and they're both by Bernardini....so, yeah, pretty damn similar. Alpha ran 12th.........so it's obvious why I'm ready to go back to that well! This horse is going to be a huge price, and I think he has as much upside as anything in the field. He was very impressive in his first two starts and then won the Gotham on the outside on a day when EVERYTHING won on the rail. His Wood is a complete toss in the mud. Plus he should have enough tactical speed to be sitting somewhat close early.

There's a lot of horses we haven't mentioned much, but I think we've covered out basic thoughts one week out. The next few days not a lot will happen, so maybe it's time to lighten things up and try to make this thing a little bit interesting?

Derby 2016 Discussion - Phil - Part 5 - Odds and Exaggerator

Ok, the "Mad" thing was cute, but I'm done with it.  Much like how a child is done with Christmas after that joke... but not quite as done with it as Phoebe Cates in Gremlins.

Tackling your odds predictions one by one....

Nyquist - Man, I get the resume reasons for him to be that slow, but I just can't see people being that dumb.  They're dumb enough to make him favored, but it's really tough for a horse to go off under 3/1 unless they're a bonafide freak like Big Brown or Pharoah.  Too many people bet too many horses in the Derby for a horse with all the questions Nyquist has to go off as short as you're saying.

Exaggerator - I think you're right that he's the clear 2nd choice, maybe even vying for favoritism if enough people see through the Nyquist smokescreen.  Now, there's the obvious reason why Nyquist should be favored over Exaggerator... Nyquist has beaten Exaggerator three times and many people think Exaggerator is better on a sloppy track, given how he crushed the Santa Anita Derby field in the slop.  It's looking like we'll have a fast track come Saturday, so Exaggerator loses his biggest advantage.  However, I'd argue that Exaggerator had some pretty rough trips thus far.  He was bothered by Nyquist TWICE in the stretch in separate races - The BC Juvenile and San Vicente.  And let's not forget his suicidal middle move in the San Felipe.  A horse can't exert that kind of energy mid-race and expect it to work out.  The horse has really only had one race that he got to really run his race, and it was the Santa Anita Derby.  He just sweeps into the picture and GOODBYE!  No other horse in this Derby has proven to have this race in them.  And it's hard to watch that race and not think that there's a possibility he's just getting way better.  And you compare that to how Nyquist stumbled home in the Florida Derby, and it's no wonder people don't buy your 2/1 on him.

3rd choice - Yeah, that could be anything at this point.  Part of me thinks it has to be Destin b/c people just have to wise up eventually.  In reality, I think it ends up being Mohaymen.  He was the Derby favorite until no showing the Florida Derby.  Had Mohaymen just run as well in the FL Derby as he had in his previous two races, he wins by a half length and is your Derby favorite.  I could see people talking themselves into Creator as an improving prospect, even though his Arkansas Derby win felt to me more like a fantastic ride by Ricardo Santana than anything else.  (I have to admit, I like Suddenbreakingnews more and more out of that group of Arkansas horses.)  Overall, I think your more right than wrong that we could just see everything at double digit odds with bettors turning it into a Nyquist vs Exaggerator match race... even though it won't be that shocking if neither hits the board.

I'm curious to see what crazy morning line Battaglia comes up with here.  It's one of the toughest years to peg down odds.  Now, all that being said, once again, something plausible according to the odds is bound to hit the board.  I could be convinced Exaggerator is that horse.  Same goes for Destin.  Anything else?  I'm struggling to find.

Part 4 (David) - Why Mad is the Madness Mad Mad

Am I doing the whole follow the madness themed title thing right? It feels pretty good.

So, in these first few posts we're basically lamenting the group of runners we'll be choosing from next weekend. But, one thing I'm becoming very intrigued by is what the odds are going to look like in this race. Right now, I'm not talking value line or what horses odds SHOULD be, I'm talking about what the odds are going to look like. Some thoughts I have on this:

1. Nyquist will be 5/2 or shorter. Honestly, I think he'll be 2/1 vs this field. It seems like most people I talk to aren't in agreement with me on this. But, Nyquist is the first horse since freaking Seattle Slew in 1977 to enter the Derby undefeated at 3 after being an undefeated champion at 2 as well. I just don't see many other horses people can get excited over in this field. Plus, most people realize there doesn't seem to be a lot of speed in this field, and Nyquist has the speed to be very close to the pace next Saturday. This all adds up to strong favoritism in my mind.

2. Exaggerator will be a strong second choice. I think it will be similar to last year when Pharoah was 5/2 and Dortmund was 4/1. If anything I think Nyquist will be just under Pharoah's odds and that Nyquist will be a little higher than Dortmund was (9/2 or 5/1).

3. I have absolutely no idea who will be third choice. Honestly, when I say I have no idea I'm being absolutely serious. This isn't just some hilarious joke like when you tell your kid you left the fire going on Christmas Eve and burned Santa Claus alive. I could absolutely see any of these horses ending up third choice:

Mor Spirit

Mohaymen

Destin

Whitmore

Gun Runner

Outwork

Brody's Cause

Creator

Mo Tom

You can make legitimate cases for any of them being third choice I think. Will one of these horses clearly emerge from this group as a clear third choice? Can all nine of them end up between 10/1 and 20/1?

4. Everything else will be 20/1+ and Oscar Nominated will take way more money than he should.....because he should take no money at all.

What do you think? In agreement with the Nyquist & Exaggerator odds guesses? Who do you think ends up third choice? Is it crazy to think the bad trips everyone saw on Mo Tom or Victor Espinoza on Whitmore ends up the deciding factor? We have a real chance at seeing a horse be third choice in the Derby with an 88 Beyer as their career high. This is like that year when Anthony Bennett was the number 1 pick.