NFL Survivor Pool 2019/2020

Hey everyone, did you realize the NFL started TONIGHT?!  Crazy huh?  Labor Day being early made it sneak up on me, so I’m just now getting to letting you all know the NFL Survivor Pool is back with a small difference this year.  Rather than running everything through Google Forms and causing hysteria, I’ve farmed the whole thing out to RunYourPool.com.  So, to join this year, go on over there, sign up for an account, then use the “Find Pool” feature to find us.  Here are the credentials you’ll need to join:

Pool ID: 122142

Password: IGotLazy

The pool over there is set up to manage everything the same way I did, with exception to whatever tiebreakers, which I’ll compile manually still.  I do have admin powers over the league, so if something does get screwed up or you’re a little late on a pick, just shoot an email to tourneypools@gmail.com, and I’ll get it all sorted out.  The only downside here is that I do have to pay for their services, and that amount will just come out of the prize pool.

And with that, onto the rules proper…

Rules

●                 Pick one team a week to win their game outright.  If you choose correctly, congrats!  You live to fight another week.  Choose wrong, and it’s GAME OVER MAN. 

●                 You may only choose a team ONCE throughout the season.  Look, any idiot could pick against the Jets every week (except their bye) and laugh all the way to the bank.  Sorry, you can’t use the other NFC West teams twice each.

●                 Picks will be submitted via runyourpool.com, which is outlined above. 

●                 Entries will be $20 each & multiple entries are allowed.  As usual, the easiest way to pay me is PayPal to tourneypools@gmail.com or Venmo to tourneypools@gmail.com.  If that is a bridge too far, find me and give me money/a check.

●                 Entry deadline each week will be prior to the kickoff of the Sunday 1 PM ET games. Picking any Thursday/Saturday games is fine, but those picks must be in prior to their actual kickoff for them to count.

●                 It is YOUR RESPONSIBILITY to know which entries have which teams still alive & to submit entries on time.  I will not babysit you.  If you submit an entry using a team that you have previously used, or you fail to submit an entry prior the 1 PM ET kickoff of Sunday games, you’ll get the biggest favorite for the Sunday/Monday games based on the lines at http://www.bovada.lv, which is the website I use to check lines.

●                 I will be maintaining a leaderboard with all selections that you will be able to find a link to on our world famous blog (tourneypools.blogspot.com) once I have put it up.

●                 Just to cut this question off at the pass, if everyone is out prior to Week 8, I'll more than likely start another pool with the same rules, so be on the lookout for that.  Last year, everyone was knocked out by Week 4, so this is very possible.

Payouts

●                 100% of the pool remaining after admin fees to runyourpool.com will be paid out & we will pay out the number of entries based on the number of participants.

●                 Payout structure will be announced sometime between week 1 and week 2 & will be posted on our world famous blog (tourneypools.blogspot.com).

●                 There are no ties at TourneyPools, if we can help it.  Here’s the tiebreaking procedure in the event that we have multiple people go out the same week and have finished high enough to get paid…

1.                Margin of victory for your picks.

2.                Margin of yards from scrimmage for your picks.  (Offense only, no special teams or turnover returns or whatever else you can think of.)  If this is somehow negative for a week, it will be rounded up to 0.

●                 If the tiebreaker rules are confusing, no worries, I’ll be tracking them on a separate sheet that will be posted here at a later date.

Questions/Comments

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2019 Derby Discussion Master Thread

If you're looking for any post we've made in relation to the Derby, we go you covered right here!

David - So It Begins
Phil - My Year With No Agenda
David - More Like Nomaha
Phil - A Marvel-ous Affair

My Derby Tears, I mean Tiers, and Some Oaks Picks

Bro, good for you doing quotes...but it's 10 pm on Thursday night and it's too late this year for me to go through the last four seasons of a tv show finding hilarious quotes for our reader (Hi again mom!). Plus if it was Big Bang Theory or Cincinnati Reds quotes mom wouldn't even get them.

So, instead, it's time I just do this old school and throw out my Derby Tiers.

Tier 4 AKA I don't like them, not at all. (post position order)

Gray Magician - More like gray slowician.
Plus Que Parfait - Named after a lame dessert I guess
Cutting Humor - Cutting isn't funny, and neither is this horse
Master Fencer - I don't think a second tier Japanese runner can win the Derby

Tier 3 AKA I don't like them, but I don't completely hate them. (post position order)

War of Will - Bad draw, awful last race, not particularly fast in his good races
Tax - Bad draw, dream set-up last, pedigree to run all day so maybe stumbles into third with a dream trip.
Vekoma - Don't buy him going 10 furlongs
Haikal - He's probably a tier 4 horse with his hoof issues, but I'll leave him here.
Long Range Toddy - Tier 4 in the slop, if the track comes up fast somehow he can maybe bounce back off the Arkansas Derby debacle
Spinoff - Philip like him some, but I just can't see it.
Country House - His maiden win is the only time he's looked good all year, has just been a total plodder in stakes races
Bodexpress - Probably my favorite of this group, but can't put a maiden any higher.

Tier 2 AKA Maybe there's a chance (order of preference last to first)

Tacitus - He's done nothing wrong. He won the Tampa Bay Derby and the Wood Memorial. He's gone from Mott's third best Derby shot, to his best Derby shot. His daddy won the Wood before finishing ninth in the Derby as the second choice, and I don't think the apple fell far from the tree.
Improbable - I am much less bullish on him than my brother is. I think he's Baffert's third best entry in this race and seriously question his ability to go 10 furlongs, oh and Country House is the best horse he's beaten.....
Roadster - Another of the Baffert trio. I think he's talented, but like Improbable, I don't think 10 furlongs is going to be his wheelhouse.
By My Standards - The talk of the backstretch with his AM workouts and easily the best horse out of the Louisiana Derby IMO. Serious pedigree questions, but have to use some.
Win Win Win - Tons of trouble last out in the Blue Grass, I think he was the best horse in there. He got hung super wide in the Tampa Bay Derby or he might've threatened Tacitus that day. He'll be a big price, he can hit the board.


Tier 1 AKA I'm tired and these are my picks (order of preference last to first)

Code of Honor - Quite simply, no horse in this field would have caught Maximum Security after he went a half mile in 48 and 4. Not a single damn one of them. And, I think CoH's Fountain of Youth is even better than it looks, he hit the lead early and kind of pulled himself up a bit. He's the best closer in this race, IMO. He's better than Tacitus, and I think he's better than Win Win Win. My only reservation is how quick the pace will be and if he will get much of a set-up.

Game Winner - I'm convinced this horse is Baffert's best chance at this year's Derby. He's bred to love the distance. Last out, he went way wide at Santa Anita or he probably beats Roadster there. He was hands down the best two-year-old in the country last year, talent is not an issue. Honestly, I'm not sure why you think Improbable possibly has more talent than Game Winner, at no point in Improbable's career has he been faster than Game Winner. Of my top three picks, Code of Honor needs a hot pace to win, Maximum Security needs a slower pace to win, with Game Winner it doesn't matter how the pace sets up.

Maximum Security - Regardless of my praises of Game Winner, Maximum Security is my top pick in this year's Derby. No horse has ever been within 3 1/2 lengths of him at the finish and he has the top two speed figures in the race...oh, and he's gonna be like the fifth or sixth choice. You can't let the fastest horse in the Derby go off sixth choice and not bet them. Yes, if Vekoma, War of Will, and Tax are all hell bent on making the lead and end up going 46 and 3, he'll almost certainly lose. But, I don't expect that to happen. I think he's going to offer the best value in the race.

With all that said, it doesn't seem like we're really on the same page this year (Outside of Maximum Security, somehow). That can't be a good thing. I still can't believe Improbable is your top pick...wow. The next couple days are gonna be interesting...



Oh, and since it's almost Friday, a few quick thoughts about the Oaks card, going to keep them quick.

1. Newspaperofrecord in the sixth race might be the most talented horse running at Churchill Downs this weekend, she could be an absolute superstar. Her two year old season was ridiculous. She should be a very short priced winner.

2. McKinzie is another likely winner, and another likely very short price in the seventh race.

3. A couple of more decently priced runners I think will be tough are Valdolobo, the 9 horse in race 4 if they're on the turf, and Queen of Beas, the 4 horse in race 5.

4. The Oaks is wide open. Horses like Choclate Kisses (20/1), Lady Apple (20/1), and Jeltrin (15/1) all have a shot at being close at the finish.

2019 Derby - A Marvel-ous Affair

…. That was a pretty good burn on Improbable.  Touche.

Despite the late start, we've already done a deep dive into pace, key questions, and... Other things maybe... So now it's time for the quote-en-ing!  After your little crack about me seeing Endgame twice (which is true - the movie is so much damn fun), I'm opting to lean into it and use Marvel Cinematic Universe quotes to pair with each horse.  Fun!  (Is this a bit we shameless steal from Bill Simmons every year?  You betcha!)  As usual, I'll include my fair value odds in parentheses.

"I look around at us and you know what I see?  Losers..... But not today.  Today it's giving us something.  It's giving us a chance." - Star-Lord

To this entire God forsaken field.  By hook or by crook, one of these 20 (or 19 depending on Haikal's status) is going to be crown a Derby champion.  God help us.

"Before we get started, does anyone want to get out?"  - Captain America

To my "very little hope" 200/1 shots War of Will, Gray Magician, Plus Que Parfait, Master Fencer, Country House, and Bodexpress.  I cannot forsee any of these horses hitting the board except maaaaaaybe Country House if the pace is just insane.  As David alluded to though, I don't think that's going to happen with Omaha Beach out.  I'm also throwing my lone 99/1 shot, Cutting Humor, in here as well.

"I don't recall killing your family.  I doubt I'll remember killing you either."  - Ronan The Accuser

I really cannot think of anything interesting to say about Haikal (33/1) or Long Range Toddy (33/1), a couple horses I doubt we'll remember being in this field.

"I can do this all day." - Captain America

I don't know if Win Win Win (33/1) has the talent to win the Derby, but you can bet he'll be advancing at the end of the race. Of all the deep DEEP closers, I think he's the best. He's the type that sneaks into the exacta/trifecta, so don't leave him off your exotics.

"Now, this is important. Once the battery is removed, everything is gonna slam into emergency mode. Once we have it, we gotta move quickly, so you definitely need to get that last. Or we could just get it first and improvise."  - Rocket

I feel like Tax (24/1) had a decent plan and shot until he drew the two hole.  The break is gonna determine if he has a shot.  He'll be a great price, so I think we'll use him a little.

"I'm made of rocks, as you can see, but don't let that intimidate you.  You don't need to be afraid, unless you're made of scissors!  Just a little rock-paper-scissors joke for you!"  - Korg

All we really know about Code of Honor (19/1) is that he can win when he has a crazy pace to fire at.  I can say the same for half the closers in here.  I know you like him, but he doesn't scare me.

"Don't do anything I would do.  And don't do anything I wouldn't do.  There's a little gray area in there.  That's where you operate." - Tony Stark

I'm putting both Spinoff (19/1) and By My Standards (15/1) here, as both look to sit similar trips, both are coming out of the Louisiana Derby, and both should probably figure into our bets somehow, but I haven't figured out yet.

"Just because something works doesn't mean it can't be improved" - Shuri

I do want to like Vekoma (15/1), who looks like he can sit a perfect trip... if it weren't for that insane stride of his down the lane winning the Blue Grass.  Not sure he wants an extra furlong.

"I do what he does, just slower."  - Falcon

I don't see the logic in betting Roadster (9/1) when he looks like a poor man's Game Winner and figures to be similar odds.  Yes, he beat Game Winner last out, but he had a perfect trip while Game Winner opted to go four wide on both turns.

"Dormammu, I've come to bargain" - Dr. Strange

Game Winner (8/1) just can't catch a break, running second in both his preps this year.  First, he loses by a nose to Omaha Beach.  Then he gets caught after Roadster has a perfect trip.  It feels like he should get the W one of these times, but a repeat "close but no cigar" performance would not be shocking.

"On your left." - Captain America

If any horse is gonna close on Saturday, I think it's Tacitus (7/1).  He's had two solid setups to run into for sure.  At this point though, he feels like one of the horses with the least questions, now being the only horse in the race with a two prep wins with one of those coming in the key final round of preps.

Ant-Man: My days of breaking into places and stealing shit are over.  What do you want me to do?
Hank Pym: I want you to break into some place and steal some shit.

Like we've mentioned already, Maximum Security (7/1) may not need to think too hard beyond "just do what you did before and it might work again." Now, he won't get away with a :49 half mile, but does he have the talent to take a 1-1/2 length lead and a :47 half mile to Derby victory?  Against this group, it wouldn't shock me.

"Anybody on our side hiding any shocking and fantastic abilities they'd like to disclose?  I'm open to suggestions."  - Iron Man

Despite your cracks, Improbable (5/1) is the only horse left in this race that could be a special horse.  Both of his 2019 races are just bizarre, and if Omaha Beach wasn't in the Arkansas Derby, he wins that race by six lengths and is your heavy favorite.

2019 Derby More Like Nomaha

Normally the Wednesday of Derby week is pretty uneventful. Horses have finished their real training, so there's not much activity there. The post draw is over, so that's all done. It's kind of just the calm before the storm (figuratively most years, literally this year). But, just when you relax....BOOM, the Derby favorite scratches.

Look Omaha Beach was going to be a major contender. He was the morning line favorite, the likely post time favorite, and a horse that had the tactical speed to be involved early in the race along with the talent and stamina to be tough to run down late....and now he'll be watching from the sidelines.

This really does change the complexion of the whole race, and it drastically alters my answers to the questions you posed fair brother...

1) What is Maximum Security going to do? 

Well, I thought Omaha Beach would put pressure to him 6-8 furlongs in, now, the horse's pressing probably aren't as talented as the horse expected to go. We discussed this a bit earlier tonight IRL, but this scratch moves Maximum Security up the list more than any other horse in the race, IMO. He's now potential lone speed, and the only horse as fast as him on paper has scratched. Lone speed and possibly most talented is a pretty scary combination, especially when he might be 10/1....

2) When will we see the real Improbable?

When he cuts back to 7 furlongs and wins the King's Bishop in a few months? (for the non racing fans, this is a sick burn, trust me).

3) What do you make of the Santa Anita Derby?

Honestly, it's just like all these preps to me. I don't think it was special or terrible. The top two are solid runners, and there wasn't a whole lot behind them. But, there wasn't really a great and deep prep all year. I do think Game Winner is the more talented runner out of this race, remember he was 1 to 2 against Omaha Beach a couple months ago. At that point in time he was everyone's Derby favorite, he's a nose and a half length away from being a 2/1 favorite Saturday.

4) How cocky will Mike Smith be on Omaha Beach?

Well.

OK, now that I've completed my homework assignment and answered all your questions. As the saying goes, pace makes the race. And, the pace in this Derby isn't all that clear cut. Or maybe it is?

I am going on one real assumption here: Maximum Security will be sent for the lead. I think there are legitimately 10 to 12 other runners in this race that want to be close to the pace, one or two of them may decide to go for the lead. But, I think Maximum Security is the only horse in the race that virtually has to send early and try to make the front.

With that assumption made, it seems like there are three real possibilities that exist regarding how the pace of this Derby shapes up:

1) Everyone decides Maximum Security is the pace of the race, and they decide he isn't a superstar and it isn't worth ruining their horse's chances by trying to beat him to the lead....in this scenario Maximum Security gets an easy lead and has a real chance to lead the whole way.

2) A couple of other jockeys/trainers decide they need to gun early, that even if it could backfire, it's their best chance. In this scenario the pace still might not be that fast, and it could work out for the jockeys that try this.

3) Everyone decides Maximum Security is a threat and they can't let him go early, three or four others really gun with him, and the pace gets out of hand.

Honestly, it's hard for me to feel strongly one way or the other on this. But, I actually kind of lean to option 1. The 7 post is ideal for a front runner like Maximum Security. He's also drawn outside of the other horses I consider to be his main pace competition, War of Will, Gray Magician, and Vekoma. I think that leaves Maximum Security with a tactical advantage, along with a talent advantage, over those rivals. 

But, while I think Maximum Security is on the lead, what happens behind him is way murkier...here's how I see the field.

Front Runner: Maximum Security

Could Try to Make Lead: War of Will, Gray Magician, Vekoma

Willing to Sit Just off the Leader(s): Tax, By My Standards, Improbable, Game Winner, Roadster, Long Range Toddy, Spinoff, Bodexpress

Midpack or Further Back: Tacitus, Cutting Humor, Code of Honor

Want to Be Way Back: Plus Que Parfait, Haikal, Win Win Win, Master Fencer(?), Country House

So, while I don't think there's a lot of pure speed, it seems like most of the field wants to be close to the early pace. 

I think both of us basically have decided that the potential to be lone speed makes Maximum Security a real threat to steal this race. So, I've discussed the case for him, he's talented and could be alone up front. But, who are our other main contenders? I don't want this to come across like he's a horse I consider a lock...I think this is a year where you have to spread out a bit and not get completely married to one runner. Right?

2019 Derby - My Year With No Agenda

Yes, selfishly shepherding another life into this world has really limited my ability to put, well, any foot forward on this.  Normally, by the time we have post positions, we're about five posts deep.  That said, brevity is the soul of wit, and it's probably better for everyone that we didn't spend 10,000 words talking about the field when we didn't even have post positions.  So, for my first post, we have post positions, morning line odds, workout hype, etc etc etc, and...

I have no idea what to do.

It's an odd feeling to be sitting less than 100 hours from post time with absolutely no agenda.  To be fair though, that's how horse players should handicap every race - let the odds dictate your strategy.  The Derby is no ordinary race though, so the odds don't matter quite as much.  To say they're useless would be folly.

With that said, I'm going to avoid making a pick even now.  Instead, I'm going to posit what I feel are the key questions in this race that you need to answer, and answering those will ultimately determine how I feel about the race...

1) What is Maximum Security going to do?

Pace makes the race, and with Maximum Security as the clear pace setter, what he does will lead to a lot of your strategy.  There's an interesting twist to Maximum Security, and that twist is that his owners also own one of the favorites, Game Winner.  Game Winner is an impeccably bred champion 2yo with the potential to be worth millions.  Maximum Security is a homebred of questionable pedigree that owners Gary & Mary West risked to lose for a mere $16,000 in his debut.  For Game Winner to have his best chance, he'll need a pace to fire at... a pace that Maximum Security can ensure.  If Maximum Security goes nuts and throws out a sub :45 half mile, I think we'll be wanting to structure bets around closers.

That said, Maximum Security is also the only early speed horse left in a Derby with a bunch of stalkers that may not see him as a legitimate threat.  17 years ago, we saw what happens when you underestimate a horse that can control the pace and is the fastest horse on paper when War Emblem went wire-to-wire at 20/1 over a pretty suspect field.  Maximum Security certainly has the credentials that he can do the same.

Normally, I always feel that you take the most talented horse in the Derby, pace be damned, because talent, like life, uh, finds a way when it comes to the Derby.  As David mentioned, there isn't a Justify or American Pharoah this year.  Hell, there isn't even a Nyquist.  There's a bunch of honest horses who have mostly run either good or ok races, but nothing that will knock your socks off.  Evaluating who has the best opportunity to make their run looks to be the way to play this Derby.

2) When will we see the real Improbable?

That said, there is a very good chance the most talented horse in this race is Improbable, and we just haven't seen it this year.  Improbable has run twice this year.  His debut in the first division of the Rebel was one of the most criminally awful rides I've ever seen.  Unsurprisingly, for his next start in the Arkansas Derby, we had a jockey change.  We also had a sloppy track and an equipment change with blinkers on.  Improbable never looked right in that Arkansas Derby, running with an odd gait known as "climbing" the whole way and not properly adjusting his gait down the stretch.  Despite all of this, he still only finished a length behind Omaha Beach, your Derby favorite on the morning line.

The big question is what caused the odd race - the blinkers or the slop.  Improbable is by City Zip out of an A.P. Indy mare - if a horse was ever bred to swim, it would be Improbable.  Therefore, part of me believes that it was the blinkers that confused him and made him run in a wonky manner.  There's definitely a question regarding whether a son of City Zip can get the Derby distance - City Zip did his best running in races about half the distance of the Derby, and his progeny have mostly proven to be the same - but if you're looking for the horse with the most talent on his day, he may be it.

3) What do you make of the Santa Anita Derby?

The Santa Anita Derby is giving us two of the favorites here in Roadster and Game Winner, but if you watch the race, you might ask why.  Visually, both appeared to be staggering down the stretch in a battle of attrition.  However, this could be attributed to the overhaul Santa Anita underwent after 22 horses died on the track over the course of the first few months of this year.  The surface is now incredibly deep, yielding races where world-class runners appear to be moving in quicksand.  If you're willing to assume this race is solid and the form will transfer, both Roadster and Game Winner rate a good shot on Saturday.  If not, there's value to be found.

4) How cocky will Mike Smith be on Omaha Beach?

We've seen Mike Smith do some crazy stuff in the Derby, especially when he believes he's on the best horse.  Omaha Beach has a habit of making strong middle moves, advancing his position in a portion of the race where everyone is running their fastest.  Smith has a habit of letting horses do what they want, but I don't know if that strategy works on a horse like Omaha Beach, who hasn't really created enough separation to "justify" being penciled in to the trifecta.  (That pun was not intended, but I'm gonna own it.)

Those are the questions I'm trying to answer right now, as I don't think you can frame up a decent strategy in this Derby without tackling them.  Maybe you have some answers.  You let me go free form - I'm going to demand in your next post to at least a quick answer on these questions.

2019 Derby Discussion...So It Begins

Ok, ok, ok, to all of our loyal blog readers (hi mom! jk, my mom doesn't read this crap) we are starting a little later with our Derby discussion than usual this year. Philip, selfishly, became a father a few months back and has less time than the past to spend on writing a blog that two people read. He also had to go see Avengers Endgame like 27 times in theaters on its opening weekend, and between that and the Battle of Winterfell, time has been tight.

But, fear not, we are here to discuss the 2019 Derby despite this myriad of distractions. And, for a change, it's actually a pretty interesting Derby this year! To recap, last year we thought Justify was a lock...he was. Here were my exact words on our Derby blog last year:

Let me make this clear: I'm hammering Justify. It will be the biggest bet I've ever made on a Derby horse (Philip is cringing at these words).

So, that was ok. In 2017, Always Dreaming was one of our two top tier horses along with Irish War Cry...so not bad. But, 2016 we weren't as good, Philip liked Exaggerator who ran second, I liked Shagaf who literally didn't finish...oh well. But, Shagaf's horribleness aside, all those horses were first or second choice that we picked basically. Will this year be different? Will our hero's come up with something other than what literally anyone could come up with? Well....maybe. I'll get this started with my general thoughts on the race...

On the surface, there isn't a horse in this field like Justify. He towered over last year's group. But, it's not exactly like 2017 either where a handful of horses were under 7/1 and then most horses in the field were over 20/1. It feels like this group is similar to 2013 when Orb won as a tepid 5/1 favorite, but there were six runners under 10/1 in the field.

In this year's renewal it SEEMS like Omaha Beach is an obvious pick for favoritism after beating Game Winner in one of the Rebels and beating Improbable in the Arkansas Derby...but, I am still of the opinion that Tacitus is going to take a lot of money after his roughly run win in the Wood Memorial, By My Standards (Louisiana Derby winner) is getting all the AM workout hype, Roadster is undefeated this season and trained by Bob Baffert, and Game Winner is also trained by Baffert and won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Churchill six months ago, his losses this season were by a nose to Omaha Beach and a half length to Roadster...both mentioned already. I could see all six of those runners being in the under 10/1 neighborhood.

The crazy thing is that I didn't even mention Maximum Security, the horse that won the Florida Derby by 3 1/2 lengths and won his other three starts by more than 6 lengths each. I know Philip is chomping at the bit to make cases for this horse. He's going to try and tell us Maximum Security is possibly the most talented runner in the field. He'll whsiper to us sweet nothings about how Maximum Security is going to be on the lead. I'll just say that, right now, I don't love Maximum Security, he feels like a second or third tier runner to me, so I'm going to have to be convinced.

Back to the betting discussion, unlike a lot of recent years, the middle of this field seems to be capable of running with the top group. War of Will got tons of hype before his horrible Louisiana Derby, some will be willing to toss that race and he'll have backers. Long Range Toddy beat Improbable in a Rebel before an Arkansas Derby flop in the slop and could rebound on faster ground. Tax and Haikal were right behind Tacitus in the Wood and both have reasons to improve. Code of Honor won the Fountain of Youth before running third in the Florida Derby when there wasn't much speed to set up his late rally. Vekoma won the Blue Grass, which is kind of ok I guess, I mean it was a bad race, but he won. And, after listing all those horses I haven't even listed either of Todd Pletcher's runners or Win Win Win who I think ran the best race in the Blue Grass.

The point I'm driving at, is this is a race that could really offer value. And, it's really damn tough to pick. Coming up with horses to key our bets around isn't as clear cut as it usually seems to be. There are 13 runners in here with top Beyer Speed Figures falling between 95 and 99. There are two horses (Omaha Beach 101 and Maximum Security 102) with figures slightly above that group.That's 15 runners that have, on their best day, been within a few lengths of one another.

I'll finish this up with where I'm at right now...

The more I look at this race, the more it seems to me that Omaha Beach is the safest horse. I'm not saying he's a star, and it sucks that he'll probably be favored, but with a gun to my head picking one horse to finish in the tri, it's probably him. He has the highest floor in the race, IMO.

I thought the Wood Memorial was the deepest prep, so Tacitus and Tax, even Haikal, should be horses I like..but, right now I'm struggling to really like them. I think I like Game Winner more than Roadster, who just beat him, to me Game Winner just seems like more of a ten furlong Derby horse. 

And a final thought: Code of Honor is a really legit contender to win this race. Here's a look at the opening half miles of the six major Derby preps:

Wood Memorial: 46 and 4/5 seconds
Blue Grass: 47 flat
Arkansas Derby: 47 2/5
Louisiana Derby: 47 3/5
Santa Anita Derby: 47 4/5
Florida Derby: 48 4/5

Now, I don't want to pretend that all tracks are equal in regards to fractional times. But, Gulfstream Park is not typically considered a slow track that produces slow times. The 3yo fillies earlier on the card went their opening half mile over a second faster than this Florida Derby half. For the first half mile to be a full second slower than fillies on the same card and a full second slower than any of the other major preps really points to how difficult it would be for a closer to win under those circumstances. Code of Honor was left with a lot of work to do and the pace scenario made that basically impossible.

Most of the horses in this field look like stalkers. There's only a few true closers that will come from way back. For me, that group looks like Haikal, maybe Tacitus, Win Win Win, Country House, and Code of Honor. I think Code of Honor had the most unfavorable pace set-up of that group in his final prep. He seems live to me.

OK, take it away Philip. Talk about the pace, or the preps, or the odds you expect...or whatever, I'm not your boss.

2019 NCAA Survivor Day 8 Pick Form

The Day 8 Pick Form is live below.  Good luck!

2019 NCAA Survivor Day 7 Pick Form

The Day 7 Pick Form is live below.  Good luck!

2019 NCAA Tournament Survivor Pool Day 6 Pick Form

The Day 6 Pick Form is live below.  Good Luck!

2019 NCAA Survivor Pool Day 5 Pick Form

Ok, time to get down to the real business at hand.  Sweet 16 Thursday is live!

Also, remember, PICKS ARE DUE BY TIP OF THE FIRST GAME!! Good luck!

2019 NCAA Tournament Survivor Pool Day 3 Recap

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Day 4 Pick Sheet

Well, once again Day 3 started with a bang. LSU, once again playing while being coached by a mascot Tiger, pulled out a victory with a layup with just 1 second left on the clock. That layup moved 23 brave geniuses on to day 4 while sending a mere two entries home. So, we only lost two people to start the day. But, it's early, and there's a lot of great games left. Clearly, this was going to be the first of many great games on the third day of the Tournament! It's not like the rest of the day would be incredibly boring with every favorite winning. This is the NCAA Tournament. THIS. IS. MADNESS! Right?

Wrong.

The rest of the day was basically too boring to recap. Really, the only game that did any real damage to the Survivor Pool was Florida State dismantling Murray State. Unsurprisingly the actual state State was able to upend the fake state of Murray. But, this game did knock out 20 believers in the hype of Ja, so, for that reason alone, it was by far the most interesting game of the day. It was a low bar.

Look, it's late, and I've done literally no research to back this up. But, I'm just going to go ahead and say that this is the first time in NCAA Tournament history that every 2nd Round game in a day was won by 1-4 seeds. It's never happened before. Don't fact check it...I didn't...just roll with it.

Remember last year? We had nuns coaching 11 seeds to Final Fours. We had 9s and 7s beating 1s and 2s. We had FUN. This year...what do ya got? Nothing. Just a bunch of 1s and 2 seeds winning by 50 and moving everyone on to the next day.

Basically I should've just made THIS VIDEO the recap of today and been done with it.

We started the day with 251 live entries, we ended the day with 209 entries as just 42 people were unable to pick favorites and advance. That means that we still have 33% of our pool alive heading into Day 4.

2019 NCAA Survivor Pool Day 4 Pick Form

The Sunday Round 2 Pick Form is below.  Good luck!

2019 NCAA Tournament Survivor Pool Day 2 Recap

Links for the lazy:

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Day 3 Pick Form

Well, day 2 began in much the same way day 1 began...a lot of people losing. Fifty of our lovely participants decided that Cincinnati would surely have gotten over blowing a 22 point lead to lose in the 2nd round last year. Obviously, they would be able to handle Iowa. Those 50 people were very wrong. Cincinnati did do a little better, this season they only blew a 13 point lead...progress! Iowa was only picked by THREE people, and in the next game Oklahoma losing sent 7 people packing while only three move on with Ole Miss...I'm starting to think the hive mind might be broken.

The wisdom of crowds finally got back on track with Texas Tech beating Northern Kentucky in a match up that didn't knock out a single competitor and 37 chalk eaters move on to pick another day.

The match-up between UC Irvine and Kansas State was one I expected to draw some interest from people looking for those sweet tie breaker points, but only 12 people jumped on the Ant Eater bandwagon that rolls on to Saturday, while nine losers got sent packing after trusting K State. Five geniuses strung together Murray State and UC Irvine and are sitting at a lofty 25 point tie breaker score through two days. Will they start chalking out, or keep trying to fly close to the sun?

Colgate and Tennessee actually ended up interesting giving the 11 warriors that chose Tennessee some anxious moments. But in the end Tennessee pulled it out and left me coming up blank on a good toothpaste related joke for Colgate. I mean, I know there should be a way to use that in a somewhat humorous way, but it eluded me...oh well.

Virginia v Gardner Webb was actually a pretty fun game in the first half. But, it was like Virginia didn't even care about the meme potential of a second straight 1 v 16 loss. So, instead of doing the noble thing, they killed our fun and advance to Saturday, and they advance Michael Smith along with them as he was the only person...brave?....enough to pick this game. Duke's similar win later in the day over North Dakota State also advanced one person as Devin Cousins decided he didn't need Duke again after today.

The match-up between Buffalo and Arizona State had a little extra twist since Bobby Hurley left Buffalo a few years back to take the Arizona State job. It was a real Aniston v Jolie situation here. And I, for one, was happy to see Aniston score the win today. Also happy were the 31 selectors who believe in a little thing called loyalty. Five entrants lost there spot in the Survivor pool by siding with some harlot from Tempe over a nice, loyal gal from upstate New York.

Oregon's utter destruction of Wisconsin sent another 20 loyal soldiers on to Saturday while sending six dummies packing. Ya know, Manute Bol's son, Bol Bol played for Oregon before he was injured. His name is Bol Bol, here's him signing a bowl thus creating the Bol Bol Bowl, an item that will likely be revered three thousand years from now as one of the most important artifacts from the early 21st century. Washington kept the Pac-12 party rolling as they crushed a Utah St. team that 20 people were silly enough to believe in, just two fair scholars advanced by picking the Huskies.

Houston was today's big, "oh damn, maybe I shouldn't have used them already" pick as the Cougars crushed Georgia State by 31 advancing 45 lovely souls. Georgia State not only lost the game, they could also lose Ron Hunter, their coach, who gets into a lot of wacky situations....a lot of them. The state of Georgia just isn't big enough for a bunch of memes from two coaches.

Big news for Donald Trump today as well, as his buddy Jerry Falwell Jr. got his daddy's school, Liberty to advance to the second round. Why is this big for Trump? Well, Liberty is the only college basketball team likely to accept an invitation to the White House if they win the Championship...fire up the grills McDonald's, might have a big order coming your way. I'm loving it! Also loving it were the two human entrants that threw their faith Liberty's way, the 29 suckers that thought Jesus wouldn't care about basketball today were clearly mistaken. I'm sure somewhere Jerry Falwell himself is smiling...like, definitely not in Heaven...but somewhere maybe.

The biggest game from the night session featured Iowa State and Ohio State, two States that are actually states facing one another to determine which Midwestern State would be crowned the okayest this spring. Thirty-five of us believed the hype after Iowa State's run through the Big 12 Tournament, and 35 of us were mistaken. A mere three entries will move on to Saturday thanks to Ohio State's win, once again proving the hive mind is struggling this season!

Meanwhile Tacko Fall and 11 of his Fall-owers will move on to tomorrow as well after Central Florida knocked out the two suckers that still remembered that one time VCU was good like 10 years ago. Three people moved on with UNC burning a one seed. And Virginia Tech advanced a remarkable 66 survivors who jumped on board that train now that Buzz Williams is sporting a fresh hairdo.

All in all it was another eventful day as we lost 166 of the 417 wonderful entrants that began the day with their hopes and dreams in tact. We have just 251 of the 639 entries still alive to make a pick for Day 3 of the Tournament. For those keeping track, that means we have eliminated over 60% of the original pool in a mere 2 days. Not so easy, is it?

2019 NCAA Survivor Pool Day 3 Pick Form

Day 2 Recap Here

Round 2 Saturday Pick Form is available below.  Good luck everyone!

2019 NCAA Survivor Pool Day 1 Recap

First things first...

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Day 2 Pick Link

Day 1 of the 2019 NCAA Tournament is in the books and we have 636 entries into the Survivor Pool...SIX HUNDRED THIRTY-SIX! That means we have $12,720 in the prize pool this year. When we got to $5K a few years ago I really didn't know how much bigger this could get, last year we fell just short of the $10K mark, and I thought we would have a real shot at breaking it this year, and break it we did. Honestly, early in the day I thought we had a shot at getting to 700 entries after a certain team lost causing many entrants to lose with them...but, you nerds slowed down.

Anyway, the tournament itself started with a pretty uneventful game that I don't want to talk about where 82 people had their hopes and dreams crushed. I feel bad for Carson Jones who really put a ton of faith in my beloved Louisville Cardinals and lost 10 entries just like that. I feel your pain bro, I feel your pain.

As a quick aside, you know what is a lot of fun? Having your favorite team lose in the FIRST FREAKING GAME of the entire Tournament! That's just great, because it makes the next 12 hours of basketball so much fun to watch. It's not like it completely ruins one of my favorite days of the year. It's not like that at all. Because I'm a mature adult that can get over disappointment, I'm fine. It's not like I hate the six of you that picked Minnesota and laughed as the gilded rodents suddenly decided the 50 games they played this season where they couldn't hit a jump shot were all just kind of tom foolery, and today they decided the ruse was over and it was time to make everything. That was great. Congrats you six, the other 82 of us are FINE!

Anyway.

The other early games were more interesting and not as terrible. LSU's paid team of mercenaries with no coach knocked of some Ivy League nerds moving 18 entries on to Friday. Yale meanwhile knocked out six entrants as they shot 8/37 from 3 point range. Yale a team that was a very good 3 point shooting team on the year, just needed a few more to spring the upset....meanwhile, a terrible shooting team, MINNESOTA, was 40% today. I'm not bitter, just pointing that out, it's kind of weird though, right? That a great shooting team chokes and loses, and an awful shooting team suddenly makes a bunch of shots? It's kind of stupid even when you think about it. But, I'm not bitter, don't worry about me...totally not upset about this.

The unluckiest people today? The seven of you that picked New Mexico State. Auburn didn't exactly look great for the last four minutes or so, yet somehow held on for the 1 point victory moving on 21 entries that probably deserve to be packing. And, there wasn't a single Vermont pick, so FSU moving on 36 entries didn't knock out anyone.

Bradley hung with Michigan State for a while, but, ultimately a school named Bradley will never win a meaningful basketball game, maybe stick to sports that sound appropriate for Bradley...I'm thinking rowing and water polo maybe? There were 10 people that moved on with Sparty.

Maryland v Belmont was the premiere sexy upset pick of the opening day. A lot of the smart players smelled an opportunity for tie-breaker points and hopped on the Belmont train. But, Maryland showed how stupid they truly were and sent 41 people packing while moving just 9 warriors on to Friday.

Meanwhile 50 lovely contestants were left saying, "Hmmm, maybe I shouldn't have used Kansas already" as they beat Northeastern by 70 or so, proving once again why I always say that Northeast is the worst of the ordinal directions.

The other sexy upset pick of the day was Murray State over Marquette. Despite the fact that Murray isn't a state, 32 geniuses believed the legend of Ja Morant and were justly rewarded. This is the type of pick that I always overthink, everyone liked Murray State, Marquette has looked like a dumpster fire for a month, Ja Morant is everyone's favorite guy not named Zion. It all just seemed too obvious...and, that's why I'm losing, because I overthink crap like this. Oh, what a huge surprise, the second best player in the NCAA Tournament posted a Triple Double and was able to beat 4 white guys from Milwaukee....who could have ever seen that coming? This sent 12 people packing, by the way.

I expected Florida v Nevada to be the most contentious pick of the day, and it was up there. 33 contestants believed in my man Mike White and they were right to do so. Meanwhile 20 losers picked Nevada and aren't picking anyone tomorrow. But, give it up for Nevada, it's really hard for a mid-major team to have the most disappointing season in college basketball, but they pulled off the feat! These guys returned basically everyone from last season's Cinderella run, they were Top 10 pre-season, and they end up going home on Day 1 after not even winning the Mountain West Tournament. I can't think of any other fanbase that could be this disappointed.

Gonzaga didn't give their 7 selectors any anxious moments in an easy win. There were 5 picks on Kentucky from people smart enough to burn them before they lose to Wofford this weekend. UK narrowly avoided the upset eeking out a 35 point win over Abilene Christian in a game that could have gone differently had Abilene been a completely different team that didn't suck at basketball. Turning to the most successful Wildcats over the past 10 years, Villanova also won, moving 40 brave souls on to Friday while knocking out 10 dorks who thought This Guy could beat Jay Wright.

The late games started with another fairly contentious 7 v 10 match-up with Seton Hall drawing 19 suckers and 46 survivor pool geniuses using Wofford a game too soon. It was the kind of great match-up you get in the NCAA Tournament with two teams featuring stars with two last names, Myles Powell vs Fletcher Magee. Seton Hall, a team that lost to Depaul twice this season, couldn't handle Wofford despite the Terriers (that's their mascot, seriously) shooting a pedestrian 13/28 from 3 point range, oh Wofford...what could have been?

Michigan over Montana was uneventful moving on 23 chalk eaters and defeating no one. Purdue knocked off Old Dominion moving on 61 people that either, A - felt like Purdue will definitely choke like they always do, but might get one win (me) or B - lost on a lot of these other games today and just wanted a little more action before bed (also me). Good job Purdue. And, nice try Wildturkeydaughter, the only ODU selector, you probably just expected the annual Purdue choke a game too early. Oh, and Purdue.

Finally, we had Baylor knocking off Syracuse in the last meaningful game of the night. There were 16 Baylor Bear Believers that live to pick tomorrow. Meanwhile, 24 dummies decided Syracuse losing one of the 4 guys that actually plays for them probably wouldn't matter and they could win anyway. Those 24 people were wrong, apparently it helps to have five actual scholarship players on a team after all.

Overall, it was a bloody Day 1 in the Survivor Pool. Out of the 636 entries that began the day full of hopes and dreams, only 413 will make it to Day 2. We've already eliminated 35% of our original entries, last year on Day 1 we lost just 27%, so today was tough for the Survivor Pool Hive Mind. If you're still alive, good luck tomorrow, after all...we've only just begun.