Yes, selfishly shepherding another life into this world has really limited my ability to put, well, any foot forward on this. Normally, by the time we have post positions, we're about five posts deep. That said, brevity is the soul of wit, and it's probably better for everyone that we didn't spend 10,000 words talking about the field when we didn't even have post positions. So, for my first post, we have post positions, morning line odds, workout hype, etc etc etc, and...
I have no idea what to do.
It's an odd feeling to be sitting less than 100 hours from post time with absolutely no agenda. To be fair though, that's how horse players should handicap every race - let the odds dictate your strategy. The Derby is no ordinary race though, so the odds don't matter quite as much. To say they're useless would be folly.
With that said, I'm going to avoid making a pick even now. Instead, I'm going to posit what I feel are the key questions in this race that you need to answer, and answering those will ultimately determine how I feel about the race...
1) What is Maximum Security going to do?
Pace makes the race, and with Maximum Security as the clear pace setter, what he does will lead to a lot of your strategy. There's an interesting twist to Maximum Security, and that twist is that his owners also own one of the favorites, Game Winner. Game Winner is an impeccably bred champion 2yo with the potential to be worth millions. Maximum Security is a homebred of questionable pedigree that owners Gary & Mary West risked to lose for a mere $16,000 in his debut. For Game Winner to have his best chance, he'll need a pace to fire at... a pace that Maximum Security can ensure. If Maximum Security goes nuts and throws out a sub :45 half mile, I think we'll be wanting to structure bets around closers.
That said, Maximum Security is also the only early speed horse left in a Derby with a bunch of stalkers that may not see him as a legitimate threat. 17 years ago, we saw what happens when you underestimate a horse that can control the pace and is the fastest horse on paper when War Emblem went wire-to-wire at 20/1 over a pretty suspect field. Maximum Security certainly has the credentials that he can do the same.
Normally, I always feel that you take the most talented horse in the Derby, pace be damned, because talent, like life, uh, finds a way when it comes to the Derby. As David mentioned, there isn't a Justify or American Pharoah this year. Hell, there isn't even a Nyquist. There's a bunch of honest horses who have mostly run either good or ok races, but nothing that will knock your socks off. Evaluating who has the best opportunity to make their run looks to be the way to play this Derby.
2) When will we see the real Improbable?
That said, there is a very good chance the most talented horse in this race is Improbable, and we just haven't seen it this year. Improbable has run twice this year. His debut in the first division of the Rebel was one of the most criminally awful rides I've ever seen. Unsurprisingly, for his next start in the Arkansas Derby, we had a jockey change. We also had a sloppy track and an equipment change with blinkers on. Improbable never looked right in that Arkansas Derby, running with an odd gait known as "climbing" the whole way and not properly adjusting his gait down the stretch. Despite all of this, he still only finished a length behind Omaha Beach, your Derby favorite on the morning line.
The big question is what caused the odd race - the blinkers or the slop. Improbable is by City Zip out of an A.P. Indy mare - if a horse was ever bred to swim, it would be Improbable. Therefore, part of me believes that it was the blinkers that confused him and made him run in a wonky manner. There's definitely a question regarding whether a son of City Zip can get the Derby distance - City Zip did his best running in races about half the distance of the Derby, and his progeny have mostly proven to be the same - but if you're looking for the horse with the most talent on his day, he may be it.
3) What do you make of the Santa Anita Derby?
The Santa Anita Derby is giving us two of the favorites here in Roadster and Game Winner, but if you watch the race, you might ask why. Visually, both appeared to be staggering down the stretch in a battle of attrition. However, this could be attributed to the overhaul Santa Anita underwent after 22 horses died on the track over the course of the first few months of this year. The surface is now incredibly deep, yielding races where world-class runners appear to be moving in quicksand. If you're willing to assume this race is solid and the form will transfer, both Roadster and Game Winner rate a good shot on Saturday. If not, there's value to be found.
4) How cocky will Mike Smith be on Omaha Beach?
We've seen Mike Smith do some crazy stuff in the Derby, especially when he believes he's on the best horse. Omaha Beach has a habit of making strong middle moves, advancing his position in a portion of the race where everyone is running their fastest. Smith has a habit of letting horses do what they want, but I don't know if that strategy works on a horse like Omaha Beach, who hasn't really created enough separation to "justify" being penciled in to the trifecta. (That pun was not intended, but I'm gonna own it.)
Those are the questions I'm trying to answer right now, as I don't think you can frame up a decent strategy in this Derby without tackling them. Maybe you have some answers. You let me go free form - I'm going to demand in your next post to at least a quick answer on these questions.
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