$1 superfecta 3,8,18 / 3,8,18,19 / 3,8,15,18,19 / ALL
$0.50 trifecta: 3,8,18 / 2,3,4,6,8,9,10,15,18,19 / ALL
$0.50 trifecta: 3,8,18 / 3,8,18 / 2,3,4,6,8,9,10,15,18,19
$0.50 trifecta: 3,8,18 / 3,8,18 / 3,8,15,18,19
$0.50 trifecta: 2,4,6,9,10,15,19 / 3,8,18 / 2,4,6,10,15,19
$0.50 trifecta: 2,4,6,9,10,15,19 / 2,4,6,9,10,15,19 / 3,8,18
$0.50 trifecta: 2,15,19 / 3,8,18 / 2,15,19
$0.50 trifecta: 2,15,19 / 2,15,19 / 3,8,13
$1 Super High Five: 3 / 8,15,18,19 / 8,15,18,19 / 8,10,15,18,19 / 8,10,15,18,19
$1 Super High Five: 3 / 10 / 8,18 / 8,18 / 15,19
Saturday, May 2, 2015
Derby Betting Pool Pick 4
Well good news, we started a Pick 4 in the 8th where we singled Private Zone, so with two races to go, we have 9-12 in the next and 3,8,18,19 in the Derby
Derby Betting Pool - Pick 5
One pick 5 ticket alive currently starting in race 7....
1,3,6 - 1,3,4,5,8 - 2,5 - 9,10,11,12 - 3,8,18,19
1,3,6 - 1,3,4,5,8 - 2,5 - 9,10,11,12 - 3,8,18,19
Friday, May 1, 2015
The Derby Discussion
Hi Friends,
As some of you may know, every year Dave and I spend a few days and have a back-and-forth email exchange for the Derby. It's always absurdly long and only semi-informative... I'm not sure how well anyone who doesn't follow horse racing can even understand what language we are speaking by the middle of the week. We used to publish the entire email chain only on Facebook. Then we migrated over to gradedstakes.com for a year (now Unbridled Stride - check it out, there's good stuff over there). Then we remembered we had a blog we had control of. So our discussion will be here. We'll each just post whenever we see fit, so only God knows how long it will be. If you don't want to read the whole thing, that's fine - there will be a summary around 48 hours before the Derby.
We'll be updating this post with each entry in chronological order semi-regularly. Feel free to bookmark this specific post and you'll be able to find everything else in one quick spot so you don't have to hunt through the blog. Also, we're starting really early this year. It'll make sense why when you read my initial post. Happy Derby 2015 to all!
Phil Part 1 (Posted 4/23 2:45 PM) - The Overview
David Part 1 (Posted 4/23 3:45 PM) - Rambling About Materiality
Phil Part 2 (Posted 4/23 8:45 PM) - Materiality, Carpe Diem, and The Chasm
David Part 2 (Posted 4/24 10:00 PM) - Best of the Worst
David Part 3 (Posted 4/25 2:30 PM) - Game of Run for the Roses
Phil Part 3 (Posted 4/25 3:30 PM) - Taking Back the Iron Throne
Phil Part 4 (Posted 4/27 10:30 AM) - GoT Fallout and Betting Strategies
David Pt. 4 (Posted 4/27 4:00 PM) - The Tiers Begin
Phil Part 5 (Posted 4/28 8:00 AM) - Frosted, Mubtaahij, and Other Quick Hits
David Part 5 (Posted 4/28 9:30 PM) - Let's Talk About Chicks Man
Phil Part 6 (Posted 4/29 8:00 PM) - Oaks Reactions and Early Post Draw Thoughts
David Part 6 (Posted 4/29 11:30 PM) - Derby's Absurdities
Phil Part 7 (Posted 4/30 2:00 AM) - The Value Line
David Part 7 (Posted 5/1 1:00 AM) - Final Oaks Thoughts and some Derby Stuff I think maybe?
Phil Part 8 (Posted 5/1 4:45 PM) - Another One Bites the Dust and My Final Thoughts
David Part 8 (Posted 5/1 7:27 PM) - This is the End
As some of you may know, every year Dave and I spend a few days and have a back-and-forth email exchange for the Derby. It's always absurdly long and only semi-informative... I'm not sure how well anyone who doesn't follow horse racing can even understand what language we are speaking by the middle of the week. We used to publish the entire email chain only on Facebook. Then we migrated over to gradedstakes.com for a year (now Unbridled Stride - check it out, there's good stuff over there). Then we remembered we had a blog we had control of. So our discussion will be here. We'll each just post whenever we see fit, so only God knows how long it will be. If you don't want to read the whole thing, that's fine - there will be a summary around 48 hours before the Derby.
We'll be updating this post with each entry in chronological order semi-regularly. Feel free to bookmark this specific post and you'll be able to find everything else in one quick spot so you don't have to hunt through the blog. Also, we're starting really early this year. It'll make sense why when you read my initial post. Happy Derby 2015 to all!
Phil Part 1 (Posted 4/23 2:45 PM) - The Overview
David Part 1 (Posted 4/23 3:45 PM) - Rambling About Materiality
Phil Part 2 (Posted 4/23 8:45 PM) - Materiality, Carpe Diem, and The Chasm
David Part 2 (Posted 4/24 10:00 PM) - Best of the Worst
David Part 3 (Posted 4/25 2:30 PM) - Game of Run for the Roses
Phil Part 3 (Posted 4/25 3:30 PM) - Taking Back the Iron Throne
Phil Part 4 (Posted 4/27 10:30 AM) - GoT Fallout and Betting Strategies
David Pt. 4 (Posted 4/27 4:00 PM) - The Tiers Begin
Phil Part 5 (Posted 4/28 8:00 AM) - Frosted, Mubtaahij, and Other Quick Hits
David Part 5 (Posted 4/28 9:30 PM) - Let's Talk About Chicks Man
Phil Part 6 (Posted 4/29 8:00 PM) - Oaks Reactions and Early Post Draw Thoughts
David Part 6 (Posted 4/29 11:30 PM) - Derby's Absurdities
Phil Part 7 (Posted 4/30 2:00 AM) - The Value Line
David Part 7 (Posted 5/1 1:00 AM) - Final Oaks Thoughts and some Derby Stuff I think maybe?
Phil Part 8 (Posted 5/1 4:45 PM) - Another One Bites the Dust and My Final Thoughts
David Part 8 (Posted 5/1 7:27 PM) - This is the End
Derby Preview Conclusion
The good news is, tomorrow can't be worse than today.
The bad part about it is today there were some chances to really make some scores, and I feel like we missed a few of those opportunities. But, we live to fight another day.
Mubtaahij will be used. I'm not worried about continuing the argument on him because we're using him in the second tier, I'm making an executive decision on that one.
Upstart is definitely a ridiculous price right now, but there's so little money in that I think we should wait a bit longer before thinking these are super accurate, we should have a clear idea early tomorrow. Still, hard to envision Upstart being much below 20/1, which still seems way too high. Mubtaahij has taken less early money than I expected as he seemed to be on a lot of radars. As usual, we were right in spotting Frosted as the horse people would jump on.
Yeah, we can definitely provide Twitter updates throughout the day, we have like 178 minutes between races to think of witty comments.
I just hope we hit something early in the card so we aren't desperately trying to hit something in the Derby...that never ends well.
Dammit, this is all so long, I feel like I need some brilliant closing to tie this baby up. But you know what, that's not how life works. Life doesn't just give you perfect cues and impeccably timed endings. Leave that crap for Hollywood. I'm just a regular American, rock, flag, and eagle.
The bad part about it is today there were some chances to really make some scores, and I feel like we missed a few of those opportunities. But, we live to fight another day.
Mubtaahij will be used. I'm not worried about continuing the argument on him because we're using him in the second tier, I'm making an executive decision on that one.
Upstart is definitely a ridiculous price right now, but there's so little money in that I think we should wait a bit longer before thinking these are super accurate, we should have a clear idea early tomorrow. Still, hard to envision Upstart being much below 20/1, which still seems way too high. Mubtaahij has taken less early money than I expected as he seemed to be on a lot of radars. As usual, we were right in spotting Frosted as the horse people would jump on.
Yeah, we can definitely provide Twitter updates throughout the day, we have like 178 minutes between races to think of witty comments.
I just hope we hit something early in the card so we aren't desperately trying to hit something in the Derby...that never ends well.
Dammit, this is all so long, I feel like I need some brilliant closing to tie this baby up. But you know what, that's not how life works. Life doesn't just give you perfect cues and impeccably timed endings. Leave that crap for Hollywood. I'm just a regular American, rock, flag, and eagle.
Derby Discussion - Phil Part 8 "Another One Bites the Dust and Final Thoughts"
Add El Kabeir to the scratch list. Bye bye Calvin Borel too....
Anyway....
I grow weary of this debate, so let's end this. First off, your additions to my value line fall on deaf ears. Everything you mentioned would lower the odds, so I'd have to make concessions somewhere that you didn't offer.
Second, early Derby betting is going almost exactly how I figured. Frosted currently way too low at 9/1, Materiality way too high at 17/1, and we'll have to keep an eye on Upstart at 33/1 currently. That's just absurd.
I think we agree for the most part on the major points of the Derby, but we never really came to a conclusion on Mubtaahij or some other middling horses. I guess you'll just have to follow us on twitter @TourneyPools where we'll be posting our bets for everyone who decided to bought into our Derby betting.
As is tradition, David, put a bow on this sucker.
Anyway....
I grow weary of this debate, so let's end this. First off, your additions to my value line fall on deaf ears. Everything you mentioned would lower the odds, so I'd have to make concessions somewhere that you didn't offer.
Second, early Derby betting is going almost exactly how I figured. Frosted currently way too low at 9/1, Materiality way too high at 17/1, and we'll have to keep an eye on Upstart at 33/1 currently. That's just absurd.
I think we agree for the most part on the major points of the Derby, but we never really came to a conclusion on Mubtaahij or some other middling horses. I guess you'll just have to follow us on twitter @TourneyPools where we'll be posting our bets for everyone who decided to bought into our Derby betting.
As is tradition, David, put a bow on this sucker.
Kentucky Derby Betting Pool: Oaks Pick 4
ticket 1: 2,3,4,6,7,9 - 2,3,8,9,10,11,12 - 8 - 8
ticket 2: 2,7 - 2,3,8,9,10,11,12 - 1,2,3,7,8,11,12 - 8
ticket 3: 3,4,6,9 - 8 - 1,2,3,7,11,12 - 8
ticket 4: 2,3,4,6,7,9 - 8 - 8 - 1,2,4,5,7,12,13,14
ticket 5: 2,7 - 2,3,9,10,11,12 - 8 - 1,2,4,5,7,12,13,14
ticket 6: 2,7 - 8 - 1,2,3,7,11,12 - 1,2,4,5,7,12,13,14
Follow @tourneypools on twitter for more updates
ticket 2: 2,7 - 2,3,8,9,10,11,12 - 1,2,3,7,8,11,12 - 8
ticket 3: 3,4,6,9 - 8 - 1,2,3,7,11,12 - 8
ticket 4: 2,3,4,6,7,9 - 8 - 8 - 1,2,4,5,7,12,13,14
ticket 5: 2,7 - 2,3,9,10,11,12 - 8 - 1,2,4,5,7,12,13,14
ticket 6: 2,7 - 8 - 1,2,3,7,11,12 - 1,2,4,5,7,12,13,14
Follow @tourneypools on twitter for more updates
Derby weekend betting pool: races 4-7 pick 4 friday
ticket 7: 1,2,3,4,5,7,9,10,11,13 - 3,4,5,7,10,12 - 5 - 7,9
ticket 8: 9 - 3,4,5,7,10,12 - 1,4,6 - 7,9
ticket 9: 1,2,3,4,5,7,10,11,13 - 5 - 1,4,6 - 7,9
ticket 10: 1,2,3,4,5,7,9,10,11,13 - 5 - 5 - 2,5
ticket 11: 9 - 3,4,7,10,12 - 5 - 2,5
ticket 12: 9 - 5 - 1,4,6 - 2,5
Twitter @tourneypools for more updates
ticket 8: 9 - 3,4,5,7,10,12 - 1,4,6 - 7,9
ticket 9: 1,2,3,4,5,7,10,11,13 - 5 - 1,4,6 - 7,9
ticket 10: 1,2,3,4,5,7,9,10,11,13 - 5 - 5 - 2,5
ticket 11: 9 - 3,4,7,10,12 - 5 - 2,5
ticket 12: 9 - 5 - 1,4,6 - 2,5
Twitter @tourneypools for more updates
Derby Weekend Betting Pool: Pick 4 for races 2-5 on Friday
ticket 1: 1,2,3,4,5,6,9,11,12 - 4,5,6,7,8,9 - 9 - 5
ticket 2: 3 - 4,5,6,7,8,9 - 1,2,3,4,5,7,11,13 - 5
ticket 3: 1,2,4,5,6,9,11,12 - 6,8 - 1,2,3,4,5,7,11,13 - 5
ticket 4: 1,2,3,4,5,6,9,11,12 - 6,8 - 9 - 3,4,7,10,12
ticket 5: 3 - 4,5,7,9 - 9 - 3,4,7,10,12
ticket 6: 3 - 6,8 - 1,2,3,4,5,7,11,13 - 3,4,7,10,12
Follow along on twitter @Tourneypools for updates on how this is going b/c I can't read it either.
ticket 2: 3 - 4,5,6,7,8,9 - 1,2,3,4,5,7,11,13 - 5
ticket 3: 1,2,4,5,6,9,11,12 - 6,8 - 1,2,3,4,5,7,11,13 - 5
ticket 4: 1,2,3,4,5,6,9,11,12 - 6,8 - 9 - 3,4,7,10,12
ticket 5: 3 - 4,5,7,9 - 9 - 3,4,7,10,12
ticket 6: 3 - 6,8 - 1,2,3,4,5,7,11,13 - 3,4,7,10,12
Follow along on twitter @Tourneypools for updates on how this is going b/c I can't read it either.
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