Derby Discussion - Phil Part 4 "GoT Fallout and Betting Strategy"

Well the Game of Thrones thing was fun and surprisingly enlightening.  Based on our posts, I think we found out a couple interesting things...

• I think we both like Dortmund more than either of us are willing to admit.  Is he our 2nd favorite horse?  I get the American Pharoah hype, but Dortmund is a touch faster on paper, he's beaten better fields, and he appears to be more versatile in terms of running style.  How much of this American Pharoah love is strictly based off that early perception stuff we touched on last week? 
• I think you like International Star and Mubtaahij more than I do.  I get liking IStar in that he's a closer who has some talent, but these kind of horses don't necessarily win the Derby.  Mubtaahij is the same thing I think.  Yes, he's destroying fields in Dubai.  I don't know if I care.  His UAE Derby didn't necessarily have a speed figure attached to it, but it was estimated to be somewhere around a 95.  That puts him a full second slower than the top tier of this field.  I generally only tend to buy into Dubai horses on weak years.  This is a strong year.  I don't see it.
• We both hate Carpe Diem.  We usually have a solid "bullshit radar" for horses like this so I'm feeling ok about this one.  He feels a little reminiscent of Bandini.  Remember Bandini?  He won the Blue Grass, wasn't particularly fast, still went off 2nd choice, and finished 19th.
• We both kinda like Bolo as a weird outsider that could get into the trifecta, but I think I'm a little higher on him than you.
• We're gonna talk way more than necessary about Tencendur, who I like and you hate.

Did I miss anyone?

Also, since our last post, another Derby contender list comes out that excludes the horse we both came up with independently as our top horse, Materiality.  I think I need Mugatu to weigh in at this point...

Now, normally we go through a pretty intense hour before the Derby putting together our bets.  How does that session look when Materiality is on the board at 18/1?  At this point, I'm predicting he's 7th choice behind Pharoah, Dortmund, Carpe Diem, Frosted, Mubtaahij, and Upstart in that order (and you could talk me into International Star being a shorter price as well).  If it works out that way, he's probably 18/1 minimum.  (And, btw, it won't work out this one.  There's a good shot one of these eight horses draws the rail on when they draw post positions on Wednesday; that would basically be a death sentence for Frosted, Mubtaahij, Upstart, or IStar.)  I don't know if we've ever definitively agreed on a horse with those kind of odds.  I know it's the Derby and pools are so big that win betting is sacrilige, but betting like $300 to win just to guarantee $5k if he crosses the line first doesn't seem like the world's worst strategy, does it?