David Part 6 - Derby's Absurdities

Ahhhhh yes, the post draw. The most ridiculous thing ever. First off, televising this is completely inane. At least back in the day owners got to pick the spot they wanted, now it's just two nerds pouring some little pills out of some type of old leather gunpowder holder. Then reaction shots of 60 year old men nodding to each other. This makes women's tennis seem like entertainment by comparison.

I've always felt the post draw is MOSTLY overrated. At the end of the day you can get a great trip or a crappy trip from any post. It's a 20 horse field, I don't think we have sufficient evidence to safely declare one spot as being truly terrible. In gambling, relying on conventional wisdom and taking it as fact is a surefire way to lose in the long run, so while the inside posts are probably not ideal, the real question is this: Does public perception and general bias against inside Derby posts actually create positive value on horses that draw those posts? In 2013 second place finisher Golden Soul broke from post 3 and third place finisher Revolutionary had post 4. Most years there is a horse or two in the first five posts that hits the board, or even wins. I think it's overly scrutinized.

That said, the 1 is probably a kiss of death for Ocho Ocho Ocho....he's tiny, a little guy like that is probably screwed being inside of everything else.

That said, my thoughts on the morning line:

• American Pharoah is the 5/2 morning line favorite...that seems a bit low to me, but most people I'm talking to seem to think he's a lock. Could a horse really be 5/2ish vs this field???
• Dortmund at 3/1 seems too low too. Again, just too many options for him to be 3/1 I think. Though, people love that he is the 8 and the AP v Dortmund talk will dominate headlines while Pletcher's bad draws will cool talk on them.
• I really hope Carpe Diem does go off third choice. Don't like him much.
• Mubtaahij is too high at 20/1, way too many people talking about him, he'll be lower.
• Ditto on Frosted at 15/1, I think he might be third choice, especially with the dream 15 post draw.
• Does International Star feel too big of a price at 20/1 also? Seems like a horse people might jump on a bit since he's the only really proven American closer.

Great undercard for Derby day as well, Bayern and Judy the Beauty should both be big favorites on the undercard, and both seem pretty vulnerable to me.