Yup, this race is freaking loaded on paper. I think you pretty much said everything in the overview that needs to be said in an overview on the race. This year's preps were basically all won by convincing favorites. Thus far, those favorites haven't disappointed and they've all gotten to this point (nine days out from Derby day) avoiding any major injuries knocking out top contenders.
Seriously, it's incredible how talented this field looks on paper. You have to go back to at least 2007 to find a group that had this type of potential...and honestly, you might need to reach back even further.
Dammit, I hate that I feel like this about this group. I was saying the same thing early this year about the older horses only to see California Chrome's crazy owners send him to Britain, Shared Belief get injured running at Charles Town, and Bayern yet to run (though that changes Derby weekend).
That said, the horse I want to rant and rave about is the same horse you want to rant and rave about: MATERIALITY.
Seriously, how is this horse getting so little love? I thought maybe I was making it up, maybe I just hadn't seen enough people's picks, and actually Materiality was being picked by a lot of people...but, no. No one I've seen thus far picks Materiality, a lot of picks haven't been posted yet, but here's what I found quickly:
On Kentuckyderby.com no one has him above 8.
On ESPN he checks in at 7.
Fan voting on Horse Racing Nation places Materiality at 14!!
Sports Illustrated has him 6th.
Daily Racing Form has him as a co-4th choice at 12/1, so that's some love I guess...
I know that people for some reason like to discount Beyer Speed Figures...but Materiality is the fastest horse in the race. He already has two wins at the 1 1/8 distance, which is the longest race any American based Derby contender has the chance to run before Derby day, so I'm willing to forgive him for not having the absolute best 10 furlong pedigree. Plus, I think pedigree is generally overrated in picking the Derby.
I have three theories to possibly explain why people aren't focusing on Materiality.
1. People in the media or racing industry are obsessed with making Derby lists 6 months ahead of time...before Materiality had ever even run. At that time they had a horse, or horses, that they liked and since nothing has fallen by the wayside all year, people's early picks are still top contenders and they're doggedly standing by their initial pick.
2. People are just getting way too caught up in the fact that Materiality has only run three times and never raced at 2. Like you said, I think this is stupid. The horses that have run in the Derby before have no bearing on the current race. These events are completely independent of one another.
3. People are too worried about being visually impressed. Dortmund, Carpe Diem, American Pharoah, Frosted, and Firing Line all crushed their most recent fields. Materiality actually had to work. BUT, what if Upstart had decided to ship to Aqueduct and run in the Wood instead of the Florida Derby? If that were the case Materiality would have won the Florida Derby by 12 lengths, Upstart would have won the Wood by about 3 lengths over Frosted assuming they ran the same speed figures. In that scenario I think Materiality and Upstart would both be perceived as being much better than they currently are.
On point 3, let me use a college basketball analogy: Materiality is like Duke and American Pharoah is like UK. Pharoah is perceived as being unstoppable, but like UK in the SEC, he was crushing overmatched opponents in Arkansas. Meanwhile Materiality faced another very legitimate contender (Upstart) in his final real prep, and he beat him solidly, but not spectacularly.
Personally, I think if horses with the exact same speed figures as this field were to line up on a Thursday at Belmont, the horse with the 110 in his last start that was undefeated would probably be favored. But, this is the Derby, people overanalyze the hell out of it, people make cute picks based on elaborate theories.
I'm getting most of my Materiality thoughts out of the way here, and I don't want to say I think he's a definite winner, or anything crazy like that. This is a REALLY good field. There's a number of excellent horses. But, Materiality is the fastest horse in the race, and he's only had three starts. If he runs back to his last race something has to take a major step forward to beat him. If the betting public is going to give me the fastest horse in the race as the fifth or sixth choice, as a bettor I am absolutely forced to bet that horse.
Any other Materiality thoughts to add, or have I basically echoed your same thoughts here? Is it good that we're so on the same page with this horse? Part of me kind of thinks it's good...but another part of me is really worried that we literally have no sense of checks and balances to rein in our enthusiasm here....
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