We're still a week out and we're already resorting to gimmicks and click-bait. I shudder to think what sort of things we're going to start doing by Wednesday. What's next? "Which horse is most like Grumpy Cat?!" or "Which horse would eat bacon the fastest?!" Shit... I'd read both those articles.
Anyway, since we had talked about this beforehand, we came up with some we agreed upon early on. So no need to rehash Frosted, Materiality, or War Story. It'd just be piling on the same comparison. Everyone else though, different. HERE WE GO! DUH DUH duhduh DUH DUH duhduh DUH DUH duhduh DUH DUH duhduh DUUUUUUH DUUUUUHHHH DUHduhDUH DUUUUUH duhduhduh!!!! (That's opening credits song to Game of Thrones for those not in the know.)
International Star is Ramsey Bolton: First, the obvious reason why. He's faced War Story (Theon) three times, he's beaten him three times. I don't think IStar was the one who gelded War Story... but I can't prove he didn't either. Much like Bolton, IStar has dominated a fairly weak area (Bolton conquering The North while everyone was gone; IStar dominating a weak Louisiana group) and that feels like his ceiling. Do you actually like this horse for a win chance? We might need to evaluate that.
Dortmund is Tywin Lannister: Tywin spent four years being the true power in Westeros; Dortmund feels that way here. I think he's a versatile horse in terms of pace. He can either go straight to the lead and run em off their feet, or he can stalk and wait for his moment to pounce. Everyone had to be reactionary to Tywin, and everyone must be reactionary to the tactics Dortmund uses.
Carpe Diem is Bran Stark: I get all the reasons I'm supposed to care about Bran - he's from the ruling family of The North and he's on some weird quest to some tree for something. Ok. Why should I care? Why should I think he figures into this in any meaningful way?
American Pharoah is Daenerys Targaryen: She's been a favorite for a long time to eventually take the Iron Throne. However, what long appeared to be her greatest strengths - her sense of justice and the command of dragons - are looking more and more like liabilities these days. The Pharoah has long been running fields off their feet with his brilliant front-running speed, but is he, quite literally, a one-trick pony?
Mubtaahij is Mance Rayder: Here's the difference between me and you here. We both paired Mubtaahij with a foreign leader/invader - that was bound to happen. However, I went a little stronger by going with a guy who we have seen the result of his invasion... namely, utter defeat and an invitation to a barbeque where he was the "guest of honor." I get why people like the horse, but he seems slow to me. He can maybe clunk up into 2nd or something, but that's about as far as I'm willing to go on this one.
El Kabier is Eddard Stark: Ned?! He's been dead since season one! El Kabier might as well have been knocked off the Derby trail around mid-February. We thought he was going to be a major player and he was easy to root for, but man we were wrong. I like your comparison here FWIW, but you more just related that to Calvin Borel.
Upstart is Tyrion Lannister: Much like in season two when Tyrion was basically running Westeros, Upstart spent around three weeks in late January/early February atop many Derby standings lists. Times were good. Then Tyrion had the Battle of the Blackwater, where he was looking at a shot at victory before being betrayed. Similarly, Upstart actually WON the Fountain of Youth, only to be disqualified. Not helping matters, the Fountain of Youth was a slow race, so Upstart went by the wayside. Upstart's FL Derby 2nd is kind of like Tyrion's flight from Westeros - there was a lot to like there, and now it's just a matter of whether or not everything can fall into place according to plan. You wish you had thought of all this David. I know you do.
Far Right is Renly Baratheon: Renly had a big role in seasons one & two before being taken out by a witch shadow or something, but you never expected him to develop into any more than a bit player. Same with Far Right. He won a couple weak races in Arkansas early in the season, and once the heat was turned up in the form of American Pharoah showing up, he was exposed for what he is - a second tier competitior.
Itsaknockout is "That kid The Mountain killed while jousting in season one:" I guess that kid did something worthwhile enough at some point to get invited to this great tournament only to get massacred. Itsaknockout is only here b/c he won via the DQ of Upstart in the Fountain of Youth. Fine, he can be here, but that doesn't mean we have to take him seriously.
Firing Line is Petyr Baelish: I could almost copy-and-paste your Upstart/Littlefinger comparison right here. Firing Line hung around the big players at Cali and held his own, but wasn't going to rule there. Very similar to Petyr's time in King's Landing, working his way up but never quite to the top. Then Firing Line went to New Mexico and become a king and power player overnight, also like Littlefinger's trip to the Eyrie. As icing on the cake - Littlefinger is not from a noble house, and Firing Line has a pedigree that could only be described as "pauper-like" by Derby standards. Man, I'm way better at this than you David, and this was your idea.
Danzig Moon is Jojen: Jojen hangs around Bran. Danzig Moon hangs around Carpe Diem. That's it.
Tencendur is Daario Naharis: The warrior leader of the Second Sons came out of nowhere at the end of season three to gain a place of prominent power and spot in Dany's bed to boot. Tencendur feels that way to me. No one was talking about him until he ran 2nd in the Wood Memorial running a 100 Beyer, all the sudden showing some dangerous tactical speed in his first start not on the Aqueduct inner dirt course, which is one of the weirdest surfaces in America since it has a heated bottom to prevent freezing - some horses just hate that surface. I like that we both went merc route with Tencendur, but you're clearly not as much of a fan as I am.
Stanford is Drogon, Dany's missing dragon: Drogon just kind of shows up, screws things up, and leaves everyone to deal with it. Stanford is a front-runner who looks overmatched, but he's got a real shot at just screwing things up for someone, especially American Pharoah, who I paired with Dany. I am SO good at this game.
Mr. Z is Maester Aemon Targaryen: The oldest character in the show from a family who hasn't ruled Westeros in decades would of course be paired with the horse with the most starts (12) and trained by D. Wayne Lukas, who you have to go back to 1998 to find his last Derby winner.
Ocho Ocho Ocho is Viserys Targaryen: Viserys was around for about half of season one, thinking he would rule Westeros, and then that ended damn quickly. Ole 888 was considered a contender until about November, now he's just kind of here.
Bolo is Arya Stark: Arya is plucky, tough, and defying expectation by playing warrior when everyone thinks she should be working on being a proper lady. Bolo is supposed to be a turf horse, but he's doing a damn good job playing the role of Derby contender for now. There are years where horses like Bolo could win the Derby, but like Arya, he's a fun distraction and nothing more.
Keen Ice is Hot Pie: I have no reason why. I just wanted to work Hot Pie into this thing.
Ok, that happened. Who do we need to figure out now?
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