The Oaks is not much of a field, we agree there. The Oaks feels like it's turning into the Derby lately in that people just enter to enter. So, uh, no idea what you're talking about with rabbits as Baffert doesn't even have a horse in the race and Pletcher has a couple rank outsiders. I really like Condo Commando in this race - I don't think anything goes with her early and she rolls. I'm A Chatterbox is probably a safer bet in that if I had to bet my life on one horse hitting the board in that race, it's her. Stellar Wind is gonna be favored, but yeah, looks like she got a dream trip last out. She's worth trying to beat. I'm not buying your Princess of Sylmar comparison for Pletcher's bad duo - Sylmar was running her 2nd race of the year and had reason to improve. Eskenformoney is on her 4th start of the year and is what she is - a horse that's probably five lengths slower than the favorites. Angela Renee has been a punching bag for better horses in her two starts this year as well. If you wanna just gamble on a horse at double digit prices, I think Puca is a stupid one with a shot. Her last race was just chasing Condo Commando, who got the easiest of early leads in a five horse field. Maybe Commando has some pressure this time around and Puca picks up the pieces. For whatever reason, the connections haven't given up on her yet.
Now, quick thoughts on the remainder of the card...
- Yes, we could get in serious trouble in that early pick 4. I hope our betting syndicate wants some early action.
- Frivolous is a big price b/c she's not fast enough to win this race. The La Troienne isn't a great field by grade one standards, but there are a couple nice horses there.
- Protonico and Honor Code can lose - Pro had a dream trip last out and I just don't trust a horse like Honor Code who needs 6 months between each race. Neck 'n Neck likes Churchill and must be considered, and I really like Midnight Cello who is as fast as anything in here as long as you just ignore his last race.
- We probably need to temper expectations on Materiality after drawing the 3 post. That's definitely a borderline spot and I don't think it significantly hurts his chances, but it doesn't enhance them either. I didn't feel like the post draw was a major deal with him since he needs to be near the lead anyway.
- Carpe Diem in the 2 post is trouble. He wants to stalk and could very easily get buried inside.
- Dortmund in the 8 post is probably the biggest winner of the draw. He's drawn in a great spot to stalk.
- American Pharoah in the 18 post could be trouble. I wouldn't be shocked if he got hung a little wide in the first turn. Same can be said for Upstart in the 19 post.
- We can officially stop talking about Ocho Ocho Ocho, who drew the rail.
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