Derby Discussion - Phil Pt 5 "Frosted, Mubtaahij, and Other Quick Hits"

Well I guess the good news here is that we agree on Tier 1 and Tier 7, so there's that.  Let's hit a few of the horses we don't see eye-to-eye on, but I have to start with the one I'm not gonna talk you put of...

I have no issue with Frosted that high up.  I'd advocate for it in fact.  I know he's going to be an underlay in the Derby, but that's just the nature of the beast.  The interesting thing about Frosted is that there's this sort of revisionist history that he came out of nowhere to win the Wood Memorial, but he's been one of those horses people have been waiting to break through for the entire Derby trail.  I think the Wood performance is totally explainable in that he has clear talent and he made an important equipment change two starts back by putting blinkers on.  Now, sometimes, when a horse first gets blinkers, they freak out a little bit and go way to fast early in the race.  That's precisely what happened to Frosted in the Fountain of Youth.  Easy enough to toss that race.  In the Wood, he relaxed better and ran a really good race.  There's a possibility he's always been this good.  I wish you could get a solid price on that possibility, but too many other people have put this together as well, so it ain't gonna happen. 

Ok, let's get back to Mubtaahij.  I think the analogy with Street Sense is somewhat fair.  One of the inherent flaws with any speed figures is that they assume at least one or two horses is exerting maximum effort at all points in a race.  This is why speed figures don't work as well on turf where everyone will just hold their horse for the final quarter mile.  So you're working off the theory that Mubtaahij could not run any faster b/c no one was fully exerted in the early stages.  He's my two bullets of concern there...

• His start before the UAE Derby was also at 1 3/16 miles, and he actually ran nearly a full second slower.
• Like we mentioned before, his speed figure in the UAE Derby translates to around a 95, which places his as an outsider at best.

So, my point here is... maybe we can't look at internal fractions on that track.  Maybe it's just a slow track and that's what you're going to get.  People who take times at face value have struggled for weeks dealing with how Materialty's FL Derby win was around four seconds slower than Dortmund's Santa Anita Derby win at the same distance, yet Material ran four points (or two lengths) faster just due to the difference of the surface.  So I think you're getting hung up on these internal times when the track might just be slow.  I'm not going to pretend like I bet enough Dubai racing to know that surface.

Few more quick hits b/c those went longer than I expected:

Not worried about Carpe Diem looking like Super Saver as Super Saver beat a crap field.  This is a good field.

How do you not name tier 4 "Friggin Todd" a la Last Man on Earth?  Anyway, I think you're a smidge high on Itsaknockout given that he's the slowest horse in the race.

I'd love to hear your insane Ocho Ocho Ocho reasoning, b/c I don't see it at all.

You're a little low on El Kabier given The Witch is in the saddle and he was as fast as anything a few months ago, but maybe he's just a fan of that weird Aqueduct Inner track.

And finally, we're probably going to have to blow this list up to an extent when the post positions are drawn.  I don't think any horses move up thanks to a good post, but I do believe horses can be dropped thanks to a bad draw.  I'll always contend that frontrunners make their own luck at the break, so a bad draw doesn't necessarily affect Pharoah, Dortmund, or Materiality.  But getting buried on the rail could make a horse like Frosted go from a secondary horse to not being used in first on any bets.

Man, I don't know what else we can talk about until the post draw really.  Have the Oaks past performances come out yet?