David Part ??? - I've Lost Count, and I'm Tired...Oaks Final Thoughts

So, we have a defection as Stanford has officially dropped out of the Kentucky Derby.

It's kind of a big scratch in that he was one of the horses figuring to vie for the early lead. Him being out seems to help favorites like American Pharoah, Dortmund, and Materiality who have speed and will be close.

On your Value Line, nothing is too out of whack with where I am thinking. Here would be my few main changes:

• I would have Pharoah on top, with Materiality and Dortmund co-2nd choices.
• I'd have Mubtaahij in the 10/1 or 12/1 range
• I would drop Firing Line to 15/1 or 20/1.

Also, really bold stance on Carpe Diem. You're essentially giving him a 4% chance or so? That seems too low, even though I dislike him, I think there is a somewhat reasonable chance that my opinion is blatantly wrong, I think he skew more in the 8-10% range.

But, it's tough, you have to drop horses somewhere and in a 20 horse field, it's hard to give out big percentages to too many runners.

I haven't really jumped into the Derby card too deeply, but it definitely seems to be a card with more horses I like than the Oaks card.

Oaks day feels weird to me. Typically there are some really nice horses in the maiden and allowance fields on the undercard that seem like standouts. This year, I don't really see any of those. In every race I'm plucking out a few horses above 10/1 and thinking they have really legit shots. I'm not that kind of handicapper usually, I'm not my crazy dad that just bets 20/1 closers all the time. 

If I was forced to pick one winner in the stakes I may go Honor Code in the Alysheba, but only because the other races are so tough...I think he's the safest of them. This really looks like a card that should produce a couple of $30+ type winners, hopefully we can catch them.

I literally have no idea who I like in the Oaks. Just none. It's like a Chinese riddle box. I am completely confused by it. I tried looking at it for an hour, my head started hurting, I had a nosebleed, my saliva started tasting like purple. In the end, I think I'm A Chatterbox seems like the safest horse in here, and we probably try to get some prices around her.

Derby Discussion - Phil Part 7 "The Value Line"

I know you love to rail against the post draw every year.  So now time for my yearly rant: the Morning Line.  For those not in the know, the morning line odds are the odds you see listed in the program.  These aren't the real odds - mainly the oddsmaker's approximation of the odds.  The odds ultimately represent what percentage of the pool is bet on each horse, and then adjust for the portion of the betting the track keeps so they can turn a profit (called the "takeout").  So the takeout at Churchill Downs is 17.5%, meaning the odds, when converted to a percentage, should add up to around 120%.  Battaglia's morning line, converted to a percentage, adds up to 133%.  In other words, he created an impossible line.  There are several reasons for this, mostly rounding and not wanting to piss off owners by putting their horses at the 99/1 they should be, but it still annoys the shit out of me every year.

Now, without further ado, here's the real morning line and my "value line."  The value line represents what I think each horse's odds should be in a world where there is no takeout, so the odds actually add up to 100%...

I might be a little high on Firing Line and a little low on Carpe Diem, but that's the only adjustments I could be talked into.

Ok, back to your points David.  I think I agree with all your thoughts on the odds.  Frosted under 10/1 would not surprise me in the least.

As for the undercard, it's really damn tough.  Bayern feels a lot safer than Judy The Beauty if you ask me, but yes both are vulnerable.  Every race is hard.  I'm terrified.

David Part 6 - Derby's Absurdities

Ahhhhh yes, the post draw. The most ridiculous thing ever. First off, televising this is completely inane. At least back in the day owners got to pick the spot they wanted, now it's just two nerds pouring some little pills out of some type of old leather gunpowder holder. Then reaction shots of 60 year old men nodding to each other. This makes women's tennis seem like entertainment by comparison.

I've always felt the post draw is MOSTLY overrated. At the end of the day you can get a great trip or a crappy trip from any post. It's a 20 horse field, I don't think we have sufficient evidence to safely declare one spot as being truly terrible. In gambling, relying on conventional wisdom and taking it as fact is a surefire way to lose in the long run, so while the inside posts are probably not ideal, the real question is this: Does public perception and general bias against inside Derby posts actually create positive value on horses that draw those posts? In 2013 second place finisher Golden Soul broke from post 3 and third place finisher Revolutionary had post 4. Most years there is a horse or two in the first five posts that hits the board, or even wins. I think it's overly scrutinized.

That said, the 1 is probably a kiss of death for Ocho Ocho Ocho....he's tiny, a little guy like that is probably screwed being inside of everything else.

That said, my thoughts on the morning line:

• American Pharoah is the 5/2 morning line favorite...that seems a bit low to me, but most people I'm talking to seem to think he's a lock. Could a horse really be 5/2ish vs this field???
• Dortmund at 3/1 seems too low too. Again, just too many options for him to be 3/1 I think. Though, people love that he is the 8 and the AP v Dortmund talk will dominate headlines while Pletcher's bad draws will cool talk on them.
• I really hope Carpe Diem does go off third choice. Don't like him much.
• Mubtaahij is too high at 20/1, way too many people talking about him, he'll be lower.
• Ditto on Frosted at 15/1, I think he might be third choice, especially with the dream 15 post draw.
• Does International Star feel too big of a price at 20/1 also? Seems like a horse people might jump on a bit since he's the only really proven American closer.

Great undercard for Derby day as well, Bayern and Judy the Beauty should both be big favorites on the undercard, and both seem pretty vulnerable to me.

Derby Discussion - Phil Part 6 "Oaks Reactions and Early Post Draw Thoughts"

First off, nice The Soup reference... did you know I went and saw Joel McHale do standup at the Horseshoe this past Saturday?

The Oaks is not much of a field, we agree there.  The Oaks feels like it's turning into the Derby lately in that people just enter to enter.  So, uh, no idea what you're talking about with rabbits as Baffert doesn't even have a horse in the race and Pletcher has a couple rank outsiders.  I really like Condo Commando in this race - I don't think anything goes with her early and she rolls.  I'm A Chatterbox is probably a safer bet in that if I had to bet my life on one horse hitting the board in that race, it's her.  Stellar Wind is gonna be favored, but yeah, looks like she got a dream trip last out.  She's worth trying to beat.  I'm not buying your Princess of Sylmar comparison for Pletcher's bad duo - Sylmar was running her 2nd race of the year and had reason to improve.  Eskenformoney is on her 4th start of the year and is what she is - a horse that's probably five lengths slower than the favorites.  Angela Renee has been a punching bag for better horses in her two starts this year as well.  If you wanna just gamble on a horse at double digit prices, I think Puca is a stupid one with a shot.  Her last race was just chasing Condo Commando, who got the easiest of early leads in a five horse field.  Maybe Commando has some pressure this time around and Puca picks up the pieces.  For whatever reason, the connections haven't given up on her yet.

Now, quick thoughts on the remainder of the card...

• Yes, we could get in serious trouble in that early pick 4.  I hope our betting syndicate wants some early action.
• Frivolous is a big price b/c she's not fast enough to win this race.  The La Troienne isn't a great field by grade one standards, but there are a couple nice horses there.
• Protonico and Honor Code can lose - Pro had a dream trip last out and I just don't trust a horse like Honor Code who needs 6 months between each race.  Neck 'n Neck likes Churchill and must be considered, and I really like Midnight Cello who is as fast as anything in here as long as you just ignore his last race.

Ok back to your regularly scheduled programming.  Thoughts on the post position draw?  I got a couple...

• We  probably need to temper expectations on Materiality after drawing the 3 post.  That's definitely a borderline spot and I don't think it significantly hurts his chances, but it doesn't enhance them either.  I didn't feel like the post draw was a major deal with him since he needs to be near the lead anyway.
• Carpe Diem in the 2 post is trouble.  He wants to stalk and could very easily get buried inside.
• Dortmund in the 8 post is probably the biggest winner of the draw.  He's drawn in a great spot to stalk.
• American Pharoah in the 18 post could be trouble.  I wouldn't be shocked if he got hung a little wide in the first turn.  Same can be said for Upstart in the 19 post.
• We can officially stop talking about Ocho Ocho Ocho, who drew the rail.

Derby (Oaks) Discussion - David Part 5 Let's Talk About Chicks Man....

I'm going to back off the Derby discussion for this one. We have a lot we're in agreement on there anyway, so I think we're mostly just going to be fine tuning our thoughts from here out. Basically, the most important thing is we're in agreement at the top, and those are the most important horses from a betting standpoint by far. If any of them win we'll hit something probably. I'm just glad there isn't some crappy sprinter that won a mile race at Gulfstream with a 104 and then ran three 92s in a row for you to get obsessed with like there usually is.

Let's talk about fillies for a bit, the Oaks card just came out...and it looks pretty solid.

First off the race 2 - 5 pick 4 is insane. Three races with 12 runners and one race with 10. We need to figure out how much budget we want to use here considering no one in our betting syndicate will give a damn about these races...but, this thing could produce a huge payout.

Quick impression in the La Troienne, how about Frivolous at a huge price?? Seriously, go back and watch her last race at Keeneland, ssssoooooo much trouble. This isn't really a great field she's facing here either.

Is the Alysheba as simple as a match race between Protonico and Honor Code? If you beat them it's huge for the pick 4 or pick 5.

The most lazily named stake ever, The Turf Sprint, is a crapshoot.

The Oaks is interesting. It's funny how this field seems pretty average when the Derby field seems to be so good this year. Some quick thoughts on the Oaks:

• Does anything put pressure on Condo Commando early? She's had easy leads in five wins and ran off the board when something pressed her. Baffert or Pletcher will send something with her as a rabbit, right?
• I'm a Chatterbox has been awesome in Louisiana and I love her versatility...
• Stellar Wind got a dream trip last out.
• The Fantasy was a sham of a race right? Just absolutely collapsed and all these closers got inflated numbers out of it.
• We have to leave in Eskenformoney and Angela Renee, right? They're pretty Princess of Sylmar-ish.

Good card. Anything jump out at you?

Derby Discussion - Phil Pt 5 "Frosted, Mubtaahij, and Other Quick Hits"

Well I guess the good news here is that we agree on Tier 1 and Tier 7, so there's that.  Let's hit a few of the horses we don't see eye-to-eye on, but I have to start with the one I'm not gonna talk you put of...

I have no issue with Frosted that high up.  I'd advocate for it in fact.  I know he's going to be an underlay in the Derby, but that's just the nature of the beast.  The interesting thing about Frosted is that there's this sort of revisionist history that he came out of nowhere to win the Wood Memorial, but he's been one of those horses people have been waiting to break through for the entire Derby trail.  I think the Wood performance is totally explainable in that he has clear talent and he made an important equipment change two starts back by putting blinkers on.  Now, sometimes, when a horse first gets blinkers, they freak out a little bit and go way to fast early in the race.  That's precisely what happened to Frosted in the Fountain of Youth.  Easy enough to toss that race.  In the Wood, he relaxed better and ran a really good race.  There's a possibility he's always been this good.  I wish you could get a solid price on that possibility, but too many other people have put this together as well, so it ain't gonna happen. 

Ok, let's get back to Mubtaahij.  I think the analogy with Street Sense is somewhat fair.  One of the inherent flaws with any speed figures is that they assume at least one or two horses is exerting maximum effort at all points in a race.  This is why speed figures don't work as well on turf where everyone will just hold their horse for the final quarter mile.  So you're working off the theory that Mubtaahij could not run any faster b/c no one was fully exerted in the early stages.  He's my two bullets of concern there...

• His start before the UAE Derby was also at 1 3/16 miles, and he actually ran nearly a full second slower.
• Like we mentioned before, his speed figure in the UAE Derby translates to around a 95, which places his as an outsider at best.

So, my point here is... maybe we can't look at internal fractions on that track.  Maybe it's just a slow track and that's what you're going to get.  People who take times at face value have struggled for weeks dealing with how Materialty's FL Derby win was around four seconds slower than Dortmund's Santa Anita Derby win at the same distance, yet Material ran four points (or two lengths) faster just due to the difference of the surface.  So I think you're getting hung up on these internal times when the track might just be slow.  I'm not going to pretend like I bet enough Dubai racing to know that surface.

Few more quick hits b/c those went longer than I expected:

Not worried about Carpe Diem looking like Super Saver as Super Saver beat a crap field.  This is a good field.

How do you not name tier 4 "Friggin Todd" a la Last Man on Earth?  Anyway, I think you're a smidge high on Itsaknockout given that he's the slowest horse in the race.

I'd love to hear your insane Ocho Ocho Ocho reasoning, b/c I don't see it at all.

You're a little low on El Kabier given The Witch is in the saddle and he was as fast as anything a few months ago, but maybe he's just a fan of that weird Aqueduct Inner track.

And finally, we're probably going to have to blow this list up to an extent when the post positions are drawn.  I don't think any horses move up thanks to a good post, but I do believe horses can be dropped thanks to a bad draw.  I'll always contend that frontrunners make their own luck at the break, so a bad draw doesn't necessarily affect Pharoah, Dortmund, or Materiality.  But getting buried on the rail could make a horse like Frosted go from a secondary horse to not being used in first on any bets.

Man, I don't know what else we can talk about until the post draw really.  Have the Oaks past performances come out yet?

David Pt. 4 - The Tiers Begin

So much agreement with Mugatu on this one. I just don't understand it at all. Materiality is so fast, and everyone dislikes him. It's astounding. I'm still not getting my hopes up for the 15/1 price that I think is possible though. It just seems way too good to be true.

I want to move onto where I tier these things, this is my start, some of these need moved around, so let's see where we agree/disagree on these...

Tier One - Probable Winners Contained Here

AMERICAN PHAROAH - There's nothing to knock here. This horse seems super talented. I know we're not huge workout guys, but he looks amazing. I think, right now, I'd probably peg him as the most likely winner of the Derby.

DORTMUND - Not sure he'd be my second choice, I probably have him slotted at third choice. But, he belongs with the top tier for now. He could potentially drop to second tier for me.

MATERIALITY - Yeah, still have him for sure. His combination of talent and probable odds is ridiculous, he is almost a lock to stay tier one barring a rail draw...and even then...

Tier Two - Knock Knock Knockin' On Top Tier's Door

FROSTED - I don't want to do this. I don't want to do this. I don't want to do this.....does Frosted rate a serious chance and need to be used as a second tier horse? I don't want him to be, I REALLY don't want him to be. But, he did run pretty fast in the Wood, and I know the Ragozin Number is going to be big since he had such a wide trip....are you going to try to talk me out of this? Will you please?

MUBTAAHIJ - I get it, you don't like this horse. I also completely understand why, he's not fast. So, let me try to very briefly explain why I like Mubtaahij who is visually impressive but slow, and I dislike a horse like Carpe Diem who is also visually impressive but slow. Let me start with the very obvious, Mubtaahij has never run in America, I know, that's stupidly simple. But, my point is the races he has run in don't play out like US races. Carpe Diem sat just off of a front runner that ran a half mile in 48 seconds flat, and 6 furlongs in 1:12. Mub was sitting behind front runners that went just 50:04 for the first half mile, and covered 6 furlongs in a much slower 1:14.31. There weren't many dirt races to compare the UAE Derby too on Dubai World Cup day, the main one being the Dubai World Cup where the pace was a much snappier 1:12.77 work the opening 6 furlongs. That 1 1/2 second difference to that point in the race can easily explain why Mub ended up with just an OK final time. If he had been sitting with faster early splits his final time could be far more impressive.

I hate to use a Street Sense comparison, because we didn't like Street Sense. But, Mubtaahij's UAE Derby is extremely similar to Street Sense's final Derby prep in the Blue Grass. That polytrack Blue Grass had a dawdling opening 6 furlongs and Street Sense closed to win with a mid 90's Beyer. The same exact thing happened with Mub's UAE Derby. I can excuse his soft final time because the fractions were ridiculously slow. I won't excuse Carpe Diem's weak speed figure since a 1:12 pace gave him ample opportunity to run a bigger number.

UPSTART - Our love of Materiality forces us to use Upstart prominently, as has been discussed. Still, I think it's laughable that more people are picking Upstart for the Derby than Materiality. People just overthink things sometimes.

Tier Three - Horses I Want To Hate and I Want To Like

BOLO - I kind of want to like this horse. But the rational part of me says he has not shot. Best finish on dirt is third, are we getting too caught up in one solid speed figure?

CARPE DIEM - One I want to hate. He's just slow, right? He does feel kind of Super Saver-y though...and that has me unsettled.

FIRING LINE - I don't think I like this horse. His pedigree isn't good, he beat a terrible field at Sunland, his trainer lacks Derby experience.

INTERNATIONAL STAR - Not sure why you think I like this horse some, I really don't. He seems too slow, he's gotten amazing rail trips in his wins, and that never works in the Derby unless Calvin Borel's voodoo blessed ass is riding your horse.

Tier Four - The Other Pletchers

ITSAKNOCKOUT - There is nothing to like about this horse. Nothing. Well, nothing except how he worked with Materiality and looked as good as Materiality...we love Materiality...so do we have to find a spot for this horse?

STANFORD - Ridiculous pedigree, should love more distance, and may not have wanted to be on the lead in his last couple of starts? He kind of just ended up on the lead in his last two starts. He's run a 98 Beyer too. He's as fast as Carpe Diem...

Tier Five - These Two Jerks

OCHO OCHO OCHO - We can't really play this horse. I mean part of me is trying to make an insane reason for him to hit the board, but I'm wrong.

TENCENDUR - I don't particularly like how this horse has one decent race that came under ideal circumstances. I was also set to make fun of his name, until I found out it's the name of King Freaking Charlemagne's Freaking WARHORSE in the freaking epic freaking poem The Song of Roland, a poem which happened to be the freaking inspiration for Stephen King's Dark Tower series....Now I'm just turning into your everyday idiot that's going to bet a horse because of it's name...this is what I've become.


Tier Six - The Rest

Look, I can't distinguish these horses. They're all virtually the same. Every one of them is a closer that runs in the high 80s to low 90s. They are all too slow on paper. None of them seem to have any reason to expect dramatic jumps in form. One of them will probably get to the top four, I just have absolutely no idea how you decide which one it might be.

DANZIG MOON
EL KABEIR
FAR RIGHT
KEEN ICE
WAR STORY

Tier Seven - Mr. Irrelevant

mr. z.

Derby Discussion - Phil Part 4 "GoT Fallout and Betting Strategy"

Well the Game of Thrones thing was fun and surprisingly enlightening.  Based on our posts, I think we found out a couple interesting things...

• I think we both like Dortmund more than either of us are willing to admit.  Is he our 2nd favorite horse?  I get the American Pharoah hype, but Dortmund is a touch faster on paper, he's beaten better fields, and he appears to be more versatile in terms of running style.  How much of this American Pharoah love is strictly based off that early perception stuff we touched on last week? 
• I think you like International Star and Mubtaahij more than I do.  I get liking IStar in that he's a closer who has some talent, but these kind of horses don't necessarily win the Derby.  Mubtaahij is the same thing I think.  Yes, he's destroying fields in Dubai.  I don't know if I care.  His UAE Derby didn't necessarily have a speed figure attached to it, but it was estimated to be somewhere around a 95.  That puts him a full second slower than the top tier of this field.  I generally only tend to buy into Dubai horses on weak years.  This is a strong year.  I don't see it.
• We both hate Carpe Diem.  We usually have a solid "bullshit radar" for horses like this so I'm feeling ok about this one.  He feels a little reminiscent of Bandini.  Remember Bandini?  He won the Blue Grass, wasn't particularly fast, still went off 2nd choice, and finished 19th.
• We both kinda like Bolo as a weird outsider that could get into the trifecta, but I think I'm a little higher on him than you.
• We're gonna talk way more than necessary about Tencendur, who I like and you hate.

Did I miss anyone?

Also, since our last post, another Derby contender list comes out that excludes the horse we both came up with independently as our top horse, Materiality.  I think I need Mugatu to weigh in at this point...

Now, normally we go through a pretty intense hour before the Derby putting together our bets.  How does that session look when Materiality is on the board at 18/1?  At this point, I'm predicting he's 7th choice behind Pharoah, Dortmund, Carpe Diem, Frosted, Mubtaahij, and Upstart in that order (and you could talk me into International Star being a shorter price as well).  If it works out that way, he's probably 18/1 minimum.  (And, btw, it won't work out this one.  There's a good shot one of these eight horses draws the rail on when they draw post positions on Wednesday; that would basically be a death sentence for Frosted, Mubtaahij, Upstart, or IStar.)  I don't know if we've ever definitively agreed on a horse with those kind of odds.  I know it's the Derby and pools are so big that win betting is sacrilige, but betting like $300 to win just to guarantee $5k if he crosses the line first doesn't seem like the world's worst strategy, does it?

Derby Discussion - Phil 3 "Taking Back the Iron Throne"

We're still a week out and we're already resorting to gimmicks and click-bait.  I shudder to think what sort of things we're going to start doing by Wednesday.  What's next?  "Which horse is most like Grumpy Cat?!"  or "Which horse would eat bacon the fastest?!"  Shit... I'd read both those articles.

Anyway, since we had talked about this beforehand, we came up with some we agreed upon early on.  So no need to rehash Frosted, Materiality, or War Story.  It'd just be piling on the same comparison.  Everyone else though, different.  HERE WE GO!  DUH DUH duhduh DUH DUH duhduh DUH DUH duhduh DUH DUH duhduh DUUUUUUH DUUUUUHHHH DUHduhDUH DUUUUUH duhduhduh!!!!  (That's opening credits song to Game of Thrones for those not in the know.)

International Star is Ramsey Bolton: First, the obvious reason why.  He's faced War Story (Theon) three times, he's beaten him three times.  I don't think IStar was the one who gelded War Story... but I can't prove he didn't either.  Much like Bolton, IStar has dominated a fairly weak area (Bolton conquering The North while everyone was gone; IStar dominating a weak Louisiana group) and that feels like his ceiling.  Do you actually like this horse for a win chance?  We might need to evaluate that.

Dortmund is Tywin Lannister: Tywin spent four years being the true power in Westeros; Dortmund feels that way here.  I think he's a versatile horse in terms of pace.  He can either go straight to the lead and run em off their feet, or he can stalk and wait for his moment to pounce.  Everyone had to be reactionary to Tywin, and everyone must be reactionary to the tactics Dortmund uses. 

Carpe Diem is Bran Stark: I get all the reasons I'm supposed to care about Bran - he's from the ruling family of The North and he's on some weird quest to some tree for something.  Ok.  Why should I care?  Why should I think he figures into this in any meaningful way? 

American Pharoah is Daenerys Targaryen: She's been a favorite for a long time to eventually take the Iron Throne.  However, what long appeared to be her greatest strengths - her sense of justice and the command of dragons - are looking more and more like liabilities these days.  The Pharoah has long been running fields off their feet with his brilliant front-running speed, but is he, quite literally, a one-trick pony?

Mubtaahij is Mance Rayder: Here's the difference between me and you here.  We both paired Mubtaahij with a foreign leader/invader - that was bound to happen.  However, I went a little stronger by going with a guy who we have seen the result of his invasion... namely, utter defeat and an invitation to a barbeque where he was the "guest of honor."  I get why people like the horse, but he seems slow to me.  He can maybe clunk up into 2nd or something, but that's about as far as I'm willing to go on this one.

El Kabier is Eddard Stark:  Ned?!  He's been dead since season one!  El Kabier might as well have been knocked off the Derby trail around mid-February.  We thought he was going to be a major player and he was easy to root for, but man we were wrong.  I like your comparison here FWIW, but you more just related that to Calvin Borel.

Upstart is Tyrion Lannister: Much like in season two when Tyrion was basically running Westeros, Upstart spent around three weeks in late January/early February atop many Derby standings lists.  Times were good.  Then Tyrion had the Battle of the Blackwater, where he was looking at a shot at victory before being betrayed.  Similarly, Upstart actually WON the Fountain of Youth, only to be disqualified.  Not helping matters, the Fountain of Youth was a slow race, so Upstart went by the wayside.  Upstart's FL Derby 2nd is kind of like Tyrion's flight from Westeros - there was a lot to like there, and now it's just a matter of whether or not everything can fall into place according to plan.  You wish you had thought of all this David.  I know you do.

Far Right is Renly Baratheon: Renly had a big role in seasons one & two before being taken out by a witch shadow or something, but you never expected him to develop into any more than a bit player.  Same with Far Right.  He won a couple weak races in Arkansas early in the season, and once the heat was turned up in the form of American Pharoah showing up, he was exposed for what he is - a second tier competitior.

Itsaknockout is "That kid The Mountain killed while jousting in season one:"  I guess that kid did something worthwhile enough at some point to get invited to this great tournament only to get massacred.  Itsaknockout is only here b/c he won via the DQ of Upstart in the Fountain of Youth.  Fine, he can be here, but that doesn't mean we have to take him seriously.

Firing Line is Petyr Baelish: I could almost copy-and-paste your Upstart/Littlefinger comparison right here.  Firing Line hung around the big players at Cali and held his own, but wasn't going to rule there.  Very similar to Petyr's time in King's Landing, working his way up but never quite to the top.  Then Firing Line went to New Mexico and become a king and power player overnight, also like Littlefinger's trip to the Eyrie.  As icing on the cake - Littlefinger is not from a noble house, and Firing Line has a pedigree that could only be described as "pauper-like" by Derby standards.  Man, I'm way better at this than you David, and this was your idea.

Danzig Moon is Jojen: Jojen hangs around Bran.  Danzig Moon hangs around Carpe Diem.  That's it.

Tencendur is Daario Naharis: The warrior leader of the Second Sons came out of nowhere at the end of season three to gain a place of prominent power and spot in Dany's bed to boot.  Tencendur feels that way to me.  No one was talking about him until he ran 2nd in the Wood Memorial running a 100 Beyer, all the sudden showing some dangerous tactical speed in his first start not on the Aqueduct inner dirt course, which is one of the weirdest surfaces in America since it has a heated bottom to prevent freezing - some horses just hate that surface.  I like that we both went merc route with Tencendur, but you're clearly not as much of a fan as I am.

Stanford is Drogon, Dany's missing dragon: Drogon just kind of shows up, screws things up, and leaves everyone to deal with it.  Stanford is a front-runner who looks overmatched, but he's got a real shot at just screwing things up for someone, especially American Pharoah, who I paired with Dany.  I am SO good at this game.

Mr. Z is Maester Aemon Targaryen: The oldest character in the show from a family who hasn't ruled Westeros in decades would of course be paired with the horse with the most starts (12) and trained by D. Wayne Lukas, who you have to go back to 1998 to find his last Derby winner.

Ocho Ocho Ocho is Viserys Targaryen: Viserys was around for about half of season one, thinking he would rule Westeros, and then that ended damn quickly.  Ole 888 was considered a contender until about November, now he's just kind of here.

Bolo is Arya Stark: Arya is plucky, tough, and defying expectation by playing warrior when everyone thinks she should be working on being a proper lady.  Bolo is supposed to be a turf horse, but he's doing a damn good job playing the role of Derby contender for now.  There are years where horses like Bolo could win the Derby, but like Arya, he's a fun distraction and nothing more.

Keen Ice is Hot Pie: I have no reason why.  I just wanted to work Hot Pie into this thing.

Ok, that happened.  Who do we need to figure out now?

Derby Discussion - David Part 3 "Game of Run for the Roses"

My brother and I grew up doing a few main things: playing videogames, watching basketball, horse racing, and a lot of TV, and arguing. That’s about it. Now, as you obviously know, we write these Derby discussions because this pertains to two of our main interests: horse racing and arguing. But, we like to bring in some pop culture while we’re at it because:

 A) We’re bored and like TV

 B) It has a very small chance of being interesting to the two people reading this

C) We want to, screw you for judging me.

So, this year, for our Derby horse comparisons we decided to bring in the pop culture phenomenon that is Game of Thrones. Basically, we’re drawing comparisons between Derby entrants and Game of Thrones characters. This way, if you have no idea who to bet on Derby day, but you really like Jon Snow, problem solved…just bet the Jon Snow comparison and you’re done! We’re doing this for you dammit, why won’t you love me!? Why don’t you look at me like you used to!? Whoa, sorry, going off the rails there…anyway, here we go:

International Star is Tyrion Lannister: All International Star has done in Louisiana is win races. He won all three major Louisiana preps, yet no one really sees him as a prime contender. Meanwhile, in Westeros, Tyrion did everything to help the people around him, and no one ever cared.

Dortmund is Daenerys Targaryen: Dany is an apt comparison for a few horses in here. All she does is win, just like the top three or four contenders for this Derby. But, I went with Dortmund since, like Dany, he’s been nothing but impressive and no one really questions him as a prime contender to the Iron Throne…I mean to the garland of roses.

Carpe Diem is Cersei Lannister: Since the start of GoT Cersei has been right at the top of the pecking order. Plenty of comparisons here. Cersei hails from the great Lannister family and was always meant to be a ruler. Carpe Diem is a son of super stallion Giant’s Causeway and was purchased for $1.6M as a 2YO. Cersei became Queen and then mother to kings. Carpe Diem as a racehorse has won four of his five starts including some of the biggest Derby preps. But, just a Cersei’s power seems like it could collapse at any moment, so does Carpe Diem’s place as potentially the best of his generation. I don’t expect Carpe Diem to be in the top 4 on Derby day, just like I don’t expect Cersei to be at the top much longer.

American Pharoah is Jamie Lannister: Jamie Lannister is GoT’s golden boy. He is the Lannister heir that has the strength and fighting prowess to match his heritage. Sure, now he’s missing a hand, and he was captured for a while. But, Jamie is the one Lannister that seems destined to remain great. Pharoah is a similar golden boy, he’s crushing his opponents, he’s charismatic, he’s a star.

Frosted is Stannis Baratheon: Stannis was just kind of an afterthought on GoT, sure he had a witch on his side, but he’d never really won anything…until he went north and crushed the wildlings. Frosted matches this to a T, he was a contender without a marquee win, until he went north to New York and crushed the Wood Memorial.

Mubtaahij is Khal Drogo: Mubtaahij has been off in a foreign desert (Dubai) dominating everyone that’s crossed his path which makes him an obvious comparison to the great Khal Drogo who dominated the lands beyond the Free Cities. The question is, how will Mubtaahij do in Westeros? No one really knows for sure…

Materiality is Jon Snow: I’ll save you another Materiality rant. But, as Jon Snow is the bastard son of Eddard Stark, so is Materiality the bastard entrant from the Todd Pletcher barn. Everyone is watching his legitimate brother, but Materiality is the horse with a chance to really make waves.

El Kabeir is Melisandre: Calvin Borel has been named to ride El Kabeir, like Melisandre, he is a witch. There is no other way to explain how such an average to below average jockey has had so much Derby success. Don’t be surprised if a shadow man baby pops out of his loins in the middle of the race.

Upstart is Petyr Baelish: No one is talking about Upstart. No one seems to think he really has any real power. As Littlefinger deals in the shadows and behind the backs of his enemies, so is Upstart sneaking into the Derby somewhat unnoticed by the major players. The only horse to cross the wire in front of him this year is Materiality, ignore at your own peril.

Firing Line is Bran Stark: Bran is wandering around God knows where with a giant named Hodor. People like him, but no one really knows what the hell’s going on with him. This is Firing Line-ish. Firing Line won the Sunland Derby by 18 lengths or so, he’s definitely kind of cool, but he’s tough to gauge.

War Story is Theon Greyjoy: Look, this is pretty simple. War Story is the only gelding in the field, Theon is also a gelding, in much more dramatic fashion. That’s it, that’s the whole comparison.

Tencendur is Bronn: Tencendur has been in all of the New York preps, he’s shown ability, but is he really a player on the grand stage? Probably not. This is very similar to Bronn who is always there, but never really a threat to wear a throne.

Bolo is Samwell: You kind of like them, but let’s be real, they’re not actual players.

Itsaknockout is Gilly: Itsaknockout has never crossed the wire first in a stakes race. He’s also never even run a 90+ Beyer number. Much like Gilly, I’m looking at him and wondering why the hell we’re wasting our time thinking about him.

Far Right, Danzig Moon, Ocho Ocho Ocho, and Keen Ice are The Wildlings: None of them have run close enough to possibly be a threat to win this race…they’re just kind of in here messing with things.

David Part 2 - Best of the Worst

Going to keep this pretty brief since our next couple posts will be quite long...

As far as the drop off goes, yes, this year there seems to be a way bigger drop-off than usual between the top group and that next group, and the top group seems deeper than it normally is.

Of the horses outside that top nine or so...and, I think we have a lot more to talk about where those horses fall in our plans...the other 11 entrants are going to be interesting to figure out.

Instead of going through them all, I'll just touch on two of them that I think could be intriguing...

OCHO OCHO OCHO - This horse is super stupid. His two 3YO starts have earned him speed figures that would probably not even make him a favorite in an allowance on the Derby undercard...but, has he had much of a shot in either start this year? He's a son of Street Sense out of a Horse Chestnut mare, that's two serious route influences. He was precocious enough to be an undefeated 2YO. He ran awful in the San Felipe and a dull third in the Blue Grass, but I don't think he got the trip he really wanted there. With pace targets to sit behind he could move forward in his third start at 3, and that could leave him in the 3rd and 4th place discussion.

BOLO - Ran a really solid race in the San Felipe and was a good third behind Dortmund that day. He regressed a little speed figure wise in the Santa Anita Derby, but he seems to have some ability and does have that one fast speed figure. Again, I'd be really surprised if he could win, but hitting the board is possible.

Of the others, KEEN ICE, WAR STORY, and FAR RIGHT all fit the profile of deep closer that seems too slow. But, it seems like every year a horse like that runs a big race and gets in the money. So, again, we could probably leave these in the third or fourth spot.

But, right now, eight days out and with just my most general handicapping finished, I would actually be surprised if the winner of this race isn't MATERIALITY, DORTMUND, or AMERICAN PHAROAH.

Derby Discussion - Phil 2 "Materiality, Carpe Diem, and The Chasm"

We're on the same page for the most part with Materiality.  I think the only difference might be that I do think American Pharoah should be favored, just b/c 10f is such a different animal.  But Materiality should be a close 2nd or 3rd choice.  Talent ultimately rules the day for me, and I think the most talented horse here is a tossup between Materiality, American Pharoah, and Dortmund... so why not take the one that's four times the price?  Now, is it a bad thing we agree so much?  Well, for entertainment purposes, yes.  Less name calling and all.  But for betting purposes?  Absolutely not.  The only two times this decade we've been as sympatico were in 2008 with Big Brown and 2012 with Bodemeister... Those worked out alright.

As for why Materiality isn't getting enough respect nationwide, I think being lightly raced is the biggest contributor.  He only has three starts, which is a fair enough knock when you have such a deep field.  It didn't matter back in 2008 with Big Brown only having three career starts b/c he was just miles better then that group.  This year, that could be enough to discount him - but again, value has to be considered.  I'm willing to forgive a minor deficiency like that for a double-digit price.

People solidifying their thoughts early on certainly has to be part of it too.  I'm fairly certain that's part of why Carpe Diem will be third choice (more on him in a second).  I always argue that, when it comes to the Derby, there is no reason to really begin to form any opinion on any horse until mid-February when the major preps really begin.  However, people still consider January and earlier form.  And people's opinions then have only been strengthened b/c of how well this crop has held together throughout the year.  Normally, a horse like Dortmund or Pharoah would have fallen apart by now - this year, the only horse that has noticeably tailed off is El Kabier.

The visual impressiveness plays into this as well.  There have been so many horses that have passed "the eye test" this year that putting too much faith in it is bound to burn you.  Ultimately, this is why I cannot take Carpe Diem seriously.  Carpe Diem had a great 2yo campaign, winning the Breeder's Futurity at Keeneland and running 2nd to Texas Red in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile.  Texas Red is the only horse to ever beat Carpe Diem, and guess who isn't showing up next Saturday.  This year, he's 2-for-2, winning the Tampa Bay Derby and Blue Grass by open lengths.  So everyone who locked into him back in November is still on board, and he's looked damn good.  However, if you just look at him on paper, he isn't fast.  He has yet to post a 100 Beyer Speed Figure in his career.  And in the Juvenile last year, he only beat fellow Derby contender Upstart by a nose, and Upstart ran closer to a punishing pace that day.  But, since Upstart doesn't pass the same eye test, Carpe is probably going to be around 7/1, while Upstart, who you already mentioned has run the second fastest race on paper and has twice run as fast or faster than American Pharoah's top race, is going to be around 18/1 probably.  DOES NOT COMPUTE.

OK, so far, we've talked about basically two horses and only mentioned 10 of the 20 runners.  That's another subplot I'm finding fascinating with this race - the chasm between the top 9 and bottom 11 is basically the size of the Grand Canyon.  We have the eight I ran down plus the clear Wise-Guy horse Frosted.  After that, the drop-off is so staggering I feel like we should just cap the Derby at those top 9 this year, b/c the combined chances of the remaining 11 is probably somewhere around 2%.  If you remember last year, we split the field into five tiers, with tier three basically being the horses we kind of liked and just had to leave in b/c they might be able to run 2nd but probably couldn't win.  Last year, we had maybe 8-10 horses in that, which is the norm.  This year, there might be two horses that fit that tier.  It's just mind-boggling.  Is there any horse outside of that top nine even worth entertaining as having a chance over 1%?  Maybe El Kabier b/c Calvin Borel is a witch?  Maybe Bolo as his biggest sin is just being not as good as Dortmund?  Heck, there are some years I'd try to talk myself into a horse like Bolo (who does have a Beyer Speed Figure over 100, something Carpe Diem cannot claim still), but can you take anyone in that group of 11 even remotely seriously?

Derby Discussion - David 1 "Rambling About Materiality"

Yup, this race is freaking loaded on paper. I think you pretty much said everything in the overview that needs to be said in an overview on the race. This year's preps were basically all won by convincing favorites. Thus far, those favorites haven't disappointed and they've all gotten to this point (nine days out from Derby day) avoiding any major injuries knocking out top contenders.

Seriously, it's incredible how talented this field looks on paper. You have to go back to at least 2007 to find a group that had this type of potential...and honestly, you might need to reach back even further.

Dammit, I hate that I feel like this about this group. I was saying the same thing early this year about the older horses only to see California Chrome's crazy owners send him to Britain, Shared Belief get injured running at Charles Town, and Bayern yet to run (though that changes Derby weekend).

That said, the horse I want to rant and rave about is the same horse you want to rant and rave about: MATERIALITY.

Seriously, how is this horse getting so little love? I thought maybe I was making it up, maybe I just hadn't seen enough people's picks, and actually Materiality was being picked by a lot of people...but, no. No one I've seen thus far picks Materiality, a lot of picks haven't been posted yet, but here's what I found quickly:

On Kentuckyderby.com no one has him above 8.

On ESPN he checks in at 7.

Fan voting on Horse Racing Nation places Materiality at 14!!

Sports Illustrated has him 6th.

Daily Racing Form has him as a co-4th choice at 12/1, so that's some love I guess...

I know that people for some reason like to discount Beyer Speed Figures...but Materiality is the fastest horse in the race. He already has two wins at the 1 1/8 distance, which is the longest race any American based Derby contender has the chance to run before Derby day, so I'm willing to forgive him for not having the absolute best 10 furlong pedigree. Plus, I think pedigree is generally overrated in picking the Derby.

I have three theories to possibly explain why people aren't focusing on Materiality.

1. People in the media or racing industry are obsessed with making Derby lists 6 months ahead of time...before Materiality had ever even run. At that time they had a horse, or horses, that they liked and since nothing has fallen by the wayside all year, people's early picks are still top contenders and they're doggedly standing by their initial pick.

2. People are just getting way too caught up in the fact that Materiality has only run three times and never raced at 2. Like you said, I think this is stupid. The horses that have run in the Derby before have no bearing on the current race. These events are completely independent of one another.

3. People are too worried about being visually impressed. Dortmund, Carpe Diem, American Pharoah, Frosted, and Firing Line all crushed their most recent fields. Materiality actually had to work. BUT, what if Upstart had decided to ship to Aqueduct and run in the Wood instead of the Florida Derby? If that were the case Materiality would have won the Florida Derby by 12 lengths, Upstart would have won the Wood by about 3 lengths over Frosted assuming they ran the same speed figures. In that scenario I think Materiality and Upstart would both be perceived as being much better than they currently are.

On point 3, let me use a college basketball analogy: Materiality is like Duke and American Pharoah  is like UK. Pharoah is perceived as being unstoppable, but like UK in the SEC, he was crushing overmatched opponents in Arkansas. Meanwhile Materiality faced another very legitimate contender (Upstart) in his final real prep, and he beat him solidly, but not spectacularly.

Personally, I think if horses with the exact same speed figures as this field were to line up on a Thursday at Belmont, the horse with the 110 in his last start that was undefeated would probably be favored. But, this is the Derby, people overanalyze the hell out of it, people make cute picks based on elaborate theories.

I'm getting most of my Materiality thoughts out of the way here, and I don't want to say I think he's a definite winner, or anything crazy like that. This is a REALLY good field. There's a number of excellent horses. But, Materiality is the fastest horse in the race, and he's only had three starts. If he runs back to his last race something has to take a major step forward to beat him. If the betting public is going to give me the fastest horse in the race as the fifth or sixth choice, as a bettor I am absolutely forced to bet that horse.

Any other Materiality thoughts to add, or have I basically echoed your same thoughts here? Is it good that we're so on the same page with this horse? Part of me kind of thinks it's good...but another part of me is really worried that we literally have no sense of checks and balances to rein in our enthusiasm here....

The Derby Discussion - Phil Pt 1 "The Overview"

Normally, I start by rehashing last year, but I'm not going to bother.  I'm beyond excited for the Derby this year.

Seriously, this is just a great race and a great field.  Just to give everyone an idea of how strong this field is, we have:

• A horse who swept all three major Louisiana prep races (named International Star),
• A two time Grade 1 winner for Todd Pletcher and ridden by John Velasquez, one of the best trainer/jockey combinations of the last 15 years (Carpe Diem),
• Another Pletcher trainee that just registered one of the fastest major prep Beyer Speed Figure since the Daily Racing Form started publishing them in the early 90's (Materiality),
• A horse widely regarded as the best colt to come out of the powerhouse Maktoum family of stables from Dubai, who has spent the better part of 20 years trying to win the Derby (Mubtaahij),
• A horse that won a major prep 6 weeks ago by more than the length of a basketball court (Firing Line),
• A horse who has broken the magical 100 Beyer Speed Figure mark three times, two of which were above a 105 (Upstart - Here's why this matters), AND...
• A Bob Baffert trainee who is an undefeated 6-for-6 on his career and swept all three major California prep races (Dortmond).

Oh, and you know who that list doesn't include.  THE FREAKING FAVORITE!

Smarty Jones in 2004 is the last horse I can recall that swept an entire prep season in one of the five major Derby prep regions - Southern California, Louisiana, South Florida, New York, & Arkansas.  Smarty Jones was the 7/2 favorite in the Derby and won convincingly.  This year, we have two such horses who pulled off this feat.  And neither is the favorite.  Many years, any of those eight horses I mentioned above would be the favorite or 2nd choice.  You're going to get 15/1 on at least two of them, maybe three.  That's absolutely incredible. 

It's extremely rare for basically every talented horse out there to make it all the way through the prep season to the Derby.  The only horse ever considered a legitimate contender that won an important race this year and fell by the wayside was Calculator, who won a minor SoCal race in Janaury.  Let's all just appreciate this first and foremost.  It's going to be a fun ride.

Now, I always begin this analysis with talking about the favorite.  This year that honor likely belongs to American Pharoah.  (Yes, someone connected to American Pharoah's Egyptian owner spelled "pharaoh" incorrectly.  Moving on.)  He absolutely dominated both major preps in Arkansas this year, winning the Rebel by 6 lengths and the Arkansas Derby by 8 lengths.  He's pretty much been the unquestioned division #1 or #2 since Labor Day, and he's damn fast on paper, breaking a 100 Beyer Speed Figure in every start since his debut.  Most years, his odds would be around 2/1 - he's every bit as good, if not better, than other recent overwhelming Derby favorites like California Chrome, Bodemeister, and Big Brown.  Thanks to the strength of this field though, he'll probably be closer to 4/1.   He's a bit of a scary bet though, since he's a Bob Baffert trainee that might need the lead to run his best.

That last sentence could be used to describe your likely second choice, Dortmund.  Yeah, Bob Baffert has the weirdest problem on his hands.  He's got maybe the two best horses in one of the most loaded Derby fields in history, and both want the lead.  Yeah, that won't keep him up at night.  Betting either of these two heavily means you need some serious insight into Baffert's psyche, b/c I doubt he tells both jockeys to make a crazy run for the lead.  Or, you know, maybe neither makes the lead, b/c there's another wildly fast horse out there...

We've always subscribed to a simple rule in the Derby: The most talented horse usually finds their way into the top 3.  This has basically held every year except 2009, 2010, and maybe 2013 - all three years when the track came up sloppy after some heavy rains.  That could help the horse who might have the most talent, and that horse looks to me to be Materiality.  His Florida Derby win was the fastest two turn Derby prep in terms of Beyer Speed Figures since... maybe Sinister Minister in 2006?  That race came up about two full lengths faster than any other prep, including Pharoah's romp in Arkansas and Dortmund's brilliant final prep in the Santa Anita Derby.

The knocks on him are pretty straightforward - he might be too close to a hot pace, he's only raced three times in his career, and he never raced at 2 years old.  The first is valid, but not too concerning to me.  He has only been on the lead once in his career, and it was in the Florida Derby where there weren't many frontrunners.  The other two knocks are pointless - horses race less and less every year; a horse this lightly raced is bound to win the Derby someday.  You'll probably hear the name Apollo thrown around when talking about Materiality.  Apollo was the last Derby winner to not race as a 2yo... He won the Derby in 1882.  Yes, that's 133 years ago.  Again though, this is one of those historical trends that is bound to fall sooner or later given how modern horses are campaigned. Fortunately, b/c of those knocks and the strength of this field, he might be 12/1 or something.  That's an amazing price for a horse as talented as this.

I've got a few others I like, but I'll stop there b/c I've already gone long.  We got plenty of time to yell back and forth about this one.

National Championship Update

So, did everyone enjoy the games yesterday?  I sure did.  Regardless, three people correctly saved Wisconsin & Duke - Michael Crone, Hunter Strickler, and... and... ME AGAIN?!?!?!  Oh man, I don't know what to do with myself.  I'll figure something out.  Either way, here are the scenarios and payouts for each team winning:

Main Pool - Duke win

1st: Phil Crone
2nd: Michael Crone
3rd: BF27
4th: Steve Fiscus
5th: Jon Schaab
6th: Agameofskill
7th: John Siegel

Main Pool - Wisconsin win

1st: Michael Crone
2nd: Hunter Strickler
3rd: Phil Crone
4th: BF27
5th: Steve Fiscus
6th: Jon Schaab
7th: Agameofskill

The referral pool has already been decided.  Congrats to those winners:

1st: mmidland
2nd: barrett
3rd: Jon Ryan

Just as a reminder, I've copy-and-pasted payouts below, and good luck to the Blue Devils of Duke!

Main Pool

1st: 2,000
2nd: 900
3rd: 400
4th: 200
5th: 100
6th: 75
7th: 50

Referral Pool

1st: 450
2nd: 155
3rd: 84.44 (blame the five people who couldn't figure out how to not pay PayPal commissions)