So much agreement with Mugatu on this one. I just don't understand it at all. Materiality is so fast, and everyone dislikes him. It's astounding. I'm still not getting my hopes up for the 15/1 price that I think is possible though. It just seems way too good to be true.
I want to move onto where I tier these things, this is my start, some of these need moved around, so let's see where we agree/disagree on these...
Tier One - Probable Winners Contained Here
AMERICAN PHAROAH - There's nothing to knock here. This horse seems super talented. I know we're not huge workout guys, but he looks amazing. I think, right now, I'd probably peg him as the most likely winner of the Derby.
DORTMUND - Not sure he'd be my second choice, I probably have him slotted at third choice. But, he belongs with the top tier for now. He could potentially drop to second tier for me.
MATERIALITY - Yeah, still have him for sure. His combination of talent and probable odds is ridiculous, he is almost a lock to stay tier one barring a rail draw...and even then...
Tier Two - Knock Knock Knockin' On Top Tier's Door
FROSTED - I don't want to do this. I don't want to do this. I don't want to do this.....does Frosted rate a serious chance and need to be used as a second tier horse? I don't want him to be, I REALLY don't want him to be. But, he did run pretty fast in the Wood, and I know the Ragozin Number is going to be big since he had such a wide trip....are you going to try to talk me out of this? Will you please?
MUBTAAHIJ - I get it, you don't like this horse. I also completely understand why, he's not fast. So, let me try to very briefly explain why I like Mubtaahij who is visually impressive but slow, and I dislike a horse like Carpe Diem who is also visually impressive but slow. Let me start with the very obvious, Mubtaahij has never run in America, I know, that's stupidly simple. But, my point is the races he has run in don't play out like US races. Carpe Diem sat just off of a front runner that ran a half mile in 48 seconds flat, and 6 furlongs in 1:12. Mub was sitting behind front runners that went just 50:04 for the first half mile, and covered 6 furlongs in a much slower 1:14.31. There weren't many dirt races to compare the UAE Derby too on Dubai World Cup day, the main one being the Dubai World Cup where the pace was a much snappier 1:12.77 work the opening 6 furlongs. That 1 1/2 second difference to that point in the race can easily explain why Mub ended up with just an OK final time. If he had been sitting with faster early splits his final time could be far more impressive.
I hate to use a Street Sense comparison, because we didn't like Street Sense. But, Mubtaahij's UAE Derby is extremely similar to Street Sense's final Derby prep in the Blue Grass. That polytrack Blue Grass had a dawdling opening 6 furlongs and Street Sense closed to win with a mid 90's Beyer. The same exact thing happened with Mub's UAE Derby. I can excuse his soft final time because the fractions were ridiculously slow. I won't excuse Carpe Diem's weak speed figure since a 1:12 pace gave him ample opportunity to run a bigger number.
UPSTART - Our love of Materiality forces us to use Upstart prominently, as has been discussed. Still, I think it's laughable that more people are picking Upstart for the Derby than Materiality. People just overthink things sometimes.
Tier Three - Horses I Want To Hate and I Want To Like
BOLO - I kind of want to like this horse. But the rational part of me says he has not shot. Best finish on dirt is third, are we getting too caught up in one solid speed figure?
CARPE DIEM - One I want to hate. He's just slow, right? He does feel kind of Super Saver-y though...and that has me unsettled.
FIRING LINE - I don't think I like this horse. His pedigree isn't good, he beat a terrible field at Sunland, his trainer lacks Derby experience.
INTERNATIONAL STAR - Not sure why you think I like this horse some, I really don't. He seems too slow, he's gotten amazing rail trips in his wins, and that never works in the Derby unless Calvin Borel's voodoo blessed ass is riding your horse.
Tier Four - The Other Pletchers
ITSAKNOCKOUT - There is nothing to like about this horse. Nothing. Well, nothing except how he worked with Materiality and looked as good as Materiality...we love Materiality...so do we have to find a spot for this horse?
STANFORD - Ridiculous pedigree, should love more distance, and may not have wanted to be on the lead in his last couple of starts? He kind of just ended up on the lead in his last two starts. He's run a 98 Beyer too. He's as fast as Carpe Diem...
Tier Five - These Two Jerks
OCHO OCHO OCHO - We can't really play this horse. I mean part of me is trying to make an insane reason for him to hit the board, but I'm wrong.
TENCENDUR - I don't particularly like how this horse has one decent race that came under ideal circumstances. I was also set to make fun of his name, until I found out it's the name of King Freaking Charlemagne's Freaking WARHORSE in the freaking epic freaking poem The Song of Roland, a poem which happened to be the freaking inspiration for Stephen King's Dark Tower series....Now I'm just turning into your everyday idiot that's going to bet a horse because of it's name...this is what I've become.
Tier Six - The Rest
Look, I can't distinguish these horses. They're all virtually the same. Every one of them is a closer that runs in the high 80s to low 90s. They are all too slow on paper. None of them seem to have any reason to expect dramatic jumps in form. One of them will probably get to the top four, I just have absolutely no idea how you decide which one it might be.
DANZIG MOON
EL KABEIR
FAR RIGHT
KEEN ICE
WAR STORY
Tier Seven - Mr. Irrelevant
mr. z.
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