Seriously, this is just a great race and a great field. Just to give everyone an idea of how strong this field is, we have:
- A horse who swept all three major Louisiana prep races (named International Star),
- A two time Grade 1 winner for Todd Pletcher and ridden by John Velasquez, one of the best trainer/jockey combinations of the last 15 years (Carpe Diem),
- Another Pletcher trainee that just registered one of the fastest major prep Beyer Speed Figure since the Daily Racing Form started publishing them in the early 90's (Materiality),
- A horse widely regarded as the best colt to come out of the powerhouse Maktoum family of stables from Dubai, who has spent the better part of 20 years trying to win the Derby (Mubtaahij),
- A horse that won a major prep 6 weeks ago by more than the length of a basketball court (Firing Line),
- A horse who has broken the magical 100 Beyer Speed Figure mark three times, two of which were above a 105 (Upstart - Here's why this matters), AND...
- A Bob Baffert trainee who is an undefeated 6-for-6 on his career and swept all three major California prep races (Dortmond).
Smarty Jones in 2004 is the last horse I can recall that swept an entire prep season in one of the five major Derby prep regions - Southern California, Louisiana, South Florida, New York, & Arkansas. Smarty Jones was the 7/2 favorite in the Derby and won convincingly. This year, we have two such horses who pulled off this feat. And neither is the favorite. Many years, any of those eight horses I mentioned above would be the favorite or 2nd choice. You're going to get 15/1 on at least two of them, maybe three. That's absolutely incredible.
It's extremely rare for basically every talented horse out there to make it all the way through the prep season to the Derby. The only horse ever considered a legitimate contender that won an important race this year and fell by the wayside was Calculator, who won a minor SoCal race in Janaury. Let's all just appreciate this first and foremost. It's going to be a fun ride.
Now, I always begin this analysis with talking about the favorite. This year that honor likely belongs to American Pharoah. (Yes, someone connected to American Pharoah's Egyptian owner spelled "pharaoh" incorrectly. Moving on.) He absolutely dominated both major preps in Arkansas this year, winning the Rebel by 6 lengths and the Arkansas Derby by 8 lengths. He's pretty much been the unquestioned division #1 or #2 since Labor Day, and he's damn fast on paper, breaking a 100 Beyer Speed Figure in every start since his debut. Most years, his odds would be around 2/1 - he's every bit as good, if not better, than other recent overwhelming Derby favorites like California Chrome, Bodemeister, and Big Brown. Thanks to the strength of this field though, he'll probably be closer to 4/1. He's a bit of a scary bet though, since he's a Bob Baffert trainee that might need the lead to run his best.
That last sentence could be used to describe your likely second choice, Dortmund. Yeah, Bob Baffert has the weirdest problem on his hands. He's got maybe the two best horses in one of the most loaded Derby fields in history, and both want the lead. Yeah, that won't keep him up at night. Betting either of these two heavily means you need some serious insight into Baffert's psyche, b/c I doubt he tells both jockeys to make a crazy run for the lead. Or, you know, maybe neither makes the lead, b/c there's another wildly fast horse out there...
We've always subscribed to a simple rule in the Derby: The most talented horse usually finds their way into the top 3. This has basically held every year except 2009, 2010, and maybe 2013 - all three years when the track came up sloppy after some heavy rains. That could help the horse who might have the most talent, and that horse looks to me to be Materiality. His Florida Derby win was the fastest two turn Derby prep in terms of Beyer Speed Figures since... maybe Sinister Minister in 2006? That race came up about two full lengths faster than any other prep, including Pharoah's romp in Arkansas and Dortmund's brilliant final prep in the Santa Anita Derby.
The knocks on him are pretty straightforward - he might be too close to a hot pace, he's only raced three times in his career, and he never raced at 2 years old. The first is valid, but not too concerning to me. He has only been on the lead once in his career, and it was in the Florida Derby where there weren't many frontrunners. The other two knocks are pointless - horses race less and less every year; a horse this lightly raced is bound to win the Derby someday. You'll probably hear the name Apollo thrown around when talking about Materiality. Apollo was the last Derby winner to not race as a 2yo... He won the Derby in 1882. Yes, that's 133 years ago. Again though, this is one of those historical trends that is bound to fall sooner or later given how modern horses are campaigned. Fortunately, b/c of those knocks and the strength of this field, he might be 12/1 or something. That's an amazing price for a horse as talented as this.
I've got a few others I like, but I'll stop there b/c I've already gone long. We got plenty of time to yell back and forth about this one.
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