We're on the same page for the most part with Materiality. I think the only difference might be that I do think American Pharoah should be favored, just b/c 10f is such a different animal. But Materiality should be a close 2nd or 3rd choice. Talent ultimately rules the day for me, and I think the most talented horse here is a tossup between Materiality, American Pharoah, and Dortmund... so why not take the one that's four times the price? Now, is it a bad thing we agree so much? Well, for entertainment purposes, yes. Less name calling and all. But for betting purposes? Absolutely not. The only two times this decade we've been as sympatico were in 2008 with Big Brown and 2012 with Bodemeister... Those worked out alright.
As for why Materiality isn't getting enough respect nationwide, I think being lightly raced is the biggest contributor. He only has three starts, which is a fair enough knock when you have such a deep field. It didn't matter back in 2008 with Big Brown only having three career starts b/c he was just miles better then that group. This year, that could be enough to discount him - but again, value has to be considered. I'm willing to forgive a minor deficiency like that for a double-digit price.
People solidifying their thoughts early on certainly has to be part of it too. I'm fairly certain that's part of why Carpe Diem will be third choice (more on him in a second). I always argue that, when it comes to the Derby, there is no reason to really begin to form any opinion on any horse until mid-February when the major preps really begin. However, people still consider January and earlier form. And people's opinions then have only been strengthened b/c of how well this crop has held together throughout the year. Normally, a horse like Dortmund or Pharoah would have fallen apart by now - this year, the only horse that has noticeably tailed off is El Kabier.
The visual impressiveness plays into this as well. There have been so many horses that have passed "the eye test" this year that putting too much faith in it is bound to burn you. Ultimately, this is why I cannot take Carpe Diem seriously. Carpe Diem had a great 2yo campaign, winning the Breeder's Futurity at Keeneland and running 2nd to Texas Red in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile. Texas Red is the only horse to ever beat Carpe Diem, and guess who isn't showing up next Saturday. This year, he's 2-for-2, winning the Tampa Bay Derby and Blue Grass by open lengths. So everyone who locked into him back in November is still on board, and he's looked damn good. However, if you just look at him on paper, he isn't fast. He has yet to post a 100 Beyer Speed Figure in his career. And in the Juvenile last year, he only beat fellow Derby contender Upstart by a nose, and Upstart ran closer to a punishing pace that day. But, since Upstart doesn't pass the same eye test, Carpe is probably going to be around 7/1, while Upstart, who you already mentioned has run the second fastest race on paper and has twice run as fast or faster than American Pharoah's top race, is going to be around 18/1 probably. DOES NOT COMPUTE.
OK, so far, we've talked about basically two horses and only mentioned 10 of the 20 runners. That's another subplot I'm finding fascinating with this race - the chasm between the top 9 and bottom 11 is basically the size of the Grand Canyon. We have the eight I ran down plus the clear Wise-Guy horse Frosted. After that, the drop-off is so staggering I feel like we should just cap the Derby at those top 9 this year, b/c the combined chances of the remaining 11 is probably somewhere around 2%. If you remember last year, we split the field into five tiers, with tier three basically being the horses we kind of liked and just had to leave in b/c they might be able to run 2nd but probably couldn't win. Last year, we had maybe 8-10 horses in that, which is the norm. This year, there might be two horses that fit that tier. It's just mind-boggling. Is there any horse outside of that top nine even worth entertaining as having a chance over 1%? Maybe El Kabier b/c Calvin Borel is a witch? Maybe Bolo as his biggest sin is just being not as good as Dortmund? Heck, there are some years I'd try to talk myself into a horse like Bolo (who does have a Beyer Speed Figure over 100, something Carpe Diem cannot claim still), but can you take anyone in that group of 11 even remotely seriously?
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