First, I love that you think Exaggerator has only had one chance to run his race and THAT'S why he ran big in the Santa Anita Derby...In the words of our insane father: That race fell apart like a soup sandwich. They went the final quarter mile in 26 and 1/5 seconds....walking home. How much of his visually impressive move was due to the others stumbling through the mud? Also, at this point, have they decided he is at his best as a one run closer? If that's the case he will be back there with Mo Tom, Creator, Suddenbreakingnews, Whitmore, My Man Sam, Brody's Cause, and Trojan Nation trying to weave through a big field. Do you really want to key a one run closer in a race like this?
Exaggerator might be able to be keyed I guess...but if we do key him it will basically be due to a lack of options. Really, I don't want to really key around any of those one run closers, because you just don't know which ones will get miserable trips. A few of them will have nightmare trips and it's guesswork to figure out which ones.
Here's some of the others I don't like right now:
Mor Spirit looks too much like a plodder to me, he hasn't really made an impressive move as those Santa Anita preps fell apart, he just kind of grinds around the track. I don't think those horses win Derbies. Although, again, this isn't a typical Derby in a lot of ways.
Danzing Candy just looks like he's hit his distance limit. Twirling Candy out of a Songandaprayer mare doesn't seem like a Derby pedigree, and the way he stopped in the Santa Anita Derby wasn't inspiring. We'll leave him in a little since we never toss speed, but I can't love him.
Gun Runner just doesn't impress me. He was all over the place weaving in and out down the stretch in the Louisiana Derby and switched to the wrong lead during the stretch as well. I think there are others with more upside.
Nyquist we've covered quite a bit. The price will be too low and he has too many knocks. The lack of much speed in there makes him a threat to hit the board and he COULD win, but he should be 10/1 - 15/1 in my opinion.
So....the horses I feel like I could maybe end up liking are:
Mohaymen - As you've already pointed out, heading into the Florida Derby many people thought he was a stand-out favorite for this race. But, he just didn't look good there at all. He beat six horse fields in the Holy Bull and the Fountain of Youth...and he may be third choice. He's got potential, but there's probably better value elsewhere.
Destin - We both like him some, you maybe do more than me at this point. Obviously, there's plenty to like. Pletcher and Castellano. Won his two preps. One of the few stalkers in the race that figures to get a great trip. But, I am worried about the eight week lay-off. Can he run back to those last couple, or might he regress a bit?
Shagaf - This horse is basically Alpha version 2.0 for me, except he might be worse. Of course, Alpha was a horse I liked in the Derby in 2012. He was also on the slowish side and had also just lost the Wood Memorial, and he was also owned by the Maktoum family. Oh, and they're both by Bernardini....so, yeah, pretty damn similar. Alpha ran 12th.........so it's obvious why I'm ready to go back to that well! This horse is going to be a huge price, and I think he has as much upside as anything in the field. He was very impressive in his first two starts and then won the Gotham on the outside on a day when EVERYTHING won on the rail. His Wood is a complete toss in the mud. Plus he should have enough tactical speed to be sitting somewhat close early.
There's a lot of horses we haven't mentioned much, but I think we've covered out basic thoughts one week out. The next few days not a lot will happen, so maybe it's time to lighten things up and try to make this thing a little bit interesting?
Saturday, April 30, 2016
Derby 2016 Discussion - Phil - Part 5 - Odds and Exaggerator
Ok, the "Mad" thing was cute, but I'm done with it. Much like how a child is done with Christmas after that joke... but not quite as done with it as Phoebe Cates in Gremlins.
Tackling your odds predictions one by one....
Nyquist - Man, I get the resume reasons for him to be that slow, but I just can't see people being that dumb. They're dumb enough to make him favored, but it's really tough for a horse to go off under 3/1 unless they're a bonafide freak like Big Brown or Pharoah. Too many people bet too many horses in the Derby for a horse with all the questions Nyquist has to go off as short as you're saying.
Exaggerator - I think you're right that he's the clear 2nd choice, maybe even vying for favoritism if enough people see through the Nyquist smokescreen. Now, there's the obvious reason why Nyquist should be favored over Exaggerator... Nyquist has beaten Exaggerator three times and many people think Exaggerator is better on a sloppy track, given how he crushed the Santa Anita Derby field in the slop. It's looking like we'll have a fast track come Saturday, so Exaggerator loses his biggest advantage. However, I'd argue that Exaggerator had some pretty rough trips thus far. He was bothered by Nyquist TWICE in the stretch in separate races - The BC Juvenile and San Vicente. And let's not forget his suicidal middle move in the San Felipe. A horse can't exert that kind of energy mid-race and expect it to work out. The horse has really only had one race that he got to really run his race, and it was the Santa Anita Derby. He just sweeps into the picture and GOODBYE! No other horse in this Derby has proven to have this race in them. And it's hard to watch that race and not think that there's a possibility he's just getting way better. And you compare that to how Nyquist stumbled home in the Florida Derby, and it's no wonder people don't buy your 2/1 on him.
3rd choice - Yeah, that could be anything at this point. Part of me thinks it has to be Destin b/c people just have to wise up eventually. In reality, I think it ends up being Mohaymen. He was the Derby favorite until no showing the Florida Derby. Had Mohaymen just run as well in the FL Derby as he had in his previous two races, he wins by a half length and is your Derby favorite. I could see people talking themselves into Creator as an improving prospect, even though his Arkansas Derby win felt to me more like a fantastic ride by Ricardo Santana than anything else. (I have to admit, I like Suddenbreakingnews more and more out of that group of Arkansas horses.) Overall, I think your more right than wrong that we could just see everything at double digit odds with bettors turning it into a Nyquist vs Exaggerator match race... even though it won't be that shocking if neither hits the board.
I'm curious to see what crazy morning line Battaglia comes up with here. It's one of the toughest years to peg down odds. Now, all that being said, once again, something plausible according to the odds is bound to hit the board. I could be convinced Exaggerator is that horse. Same goes for Destin. Anything else? I'm struggling to find.
Tackling your odds predictions one by one....
Nyquist - Man, I get the resume reasons for him to be that slow, but I just can't see people being that dumb. They're dumb enough to make him favored, but it's really tough for a horse to go off under 3/1 unless they're a bonafide freak like Big Brown or Pharoah. Too many people bet too many horses in the Derby for a horse with all the questions Nyquist has to go off as short as you're saying.
Exaggerator - I think you're right that he's the clear 2nd choice, maybe even vying for favoritism if enough people see through the Nyquist smokescreen. Now, there's the obvious reason why Nyquist should be favored over Exaggerator... Nyquist has beaten Exaggerator three times and many people think Exaggerator is better on a sloppy track, given how he crushed the Santa Anita Derby field in the slop. It's looking like we'll have a fast track come Saturday, so Exaggerator loses his biggest advantage. However, I'd argue that Exaggerator had some pretty rough trips thus far. He was bothered by Nyquist TWICE in the stretch in separate races - The BC Juvenile and San Vicente. And let's not forget his suicidal middle move in the San Felipe. A horse can't exert that kind of energy mid-race and expect it to work out. The horse has really only had one race that he got to really run his race, and it was the Santa Anita Derby. He just sweeps into the picture and GOODBYE! No other horse in this Derby has proven to have this race in them. And it's hard to watch that race and not think that there's a possibility he's just getting way better. And you compare that to how Nyquist stumbled home in the Florida Derby, and it's no wonder people don't buy your 2/1 on him.
3rd choice - Yeah, that could be anything at this point. Part of me thinks it has to be Destin b/c people just have to wise up eventually. In reality, I think it ends up being Mohaymen. He was the Derby favorite until no showing the Florida Derby. Had Mohaymen just run as well in the FL Derby as he had in his previous two races, he wins by a half length and is your Derby favorite. I could see people talking themselves into Creator as an improving prospect, even though his Arkansas Derby win felt to me more like a fantastic ride by Ricardo Santana than anything else. (I have to admit, I like Suddenbreakingnews more and more out of that group of Arkansas horses.) Overall, I think your more right than wrong that we could just see everything at double digit odds with bettors turning it into a Nyquist vs Exaggerator match race... even though it won't be that shocking if neither hits the board.
I'm curious to see what crazy morning line Battaglia comes up with here. It's one of the toughest years to peg down odds. Now, all that being said, once again, something plausible according to the odds is bound to hit the board. I could be convinced Exaggerator is that horse. Same goes for Destin. Anything else? I'm struggling to find.
Thursday, April 28, 2016
Part 4 (David) - Why Mad is the Madness Mad Mad
Am I doing the whole follow the madness themed title thing right? It feels pretty good.
So, in these first few posts we're basically lamenting the group of runners we'll be choosing from next weekend. But, one thing I'm becoming very intrigued by is what the odds are going to look like in this race. Right now, I'm not talking value line or what horses odds SHOULD be, I'm talking about what the odds are going to look like. Some thoughts I have on this:
1. Nyquist will be 5/2 or shorter. Honestly, I think he'll be 2/1 vs this field. It seems like most people I talk to aren't in agreement with me on this. But, Nyquist is the first horse since freaking Seattle Slew in 1977 to enter the Derby undefeated at 3 after being an undefeated champion at 2 as well. I just don't see many other horses people can get excited over in this field. Plus, most people realize there doesn't seem to be a lot of speed in this field, and Nyquist has the speed to be very close to the pace next Saturday. This all adds up to strong favoritism in my mind.
2. Exaggerator will be a strong second choice. I think it will be similar to last year when Pharoah was 5/2 and Dortmund was 4/1. If anything I think Nyquist will be just under Pharoah's odds and that Nyquist will be a little higher than Dortmund was (9/2 or 5/1).
3. I have absolutely no idea who will be third choice. Honestly, when I say I have no idea I'm being absolutely serious. This isn't just some hilarious joke like when you tell your kid you left the fire going on Christmas Eve and burned Santa Claus alive. I could absolutely see any of these horses ending up third choice:
Mor Spirit
Mohaymen
Destin
Whitmore
Gun Runner
Outwork
Brody's Cause
Creator
Mo Tom
You can make legitimate cases for any of them being third choice I think. Will one of these horses clearly emerge from this group as a clear third choice? Can all nine of them end up between 10/1 and 20/1?
4. Everything else will be 20/1+ and Oscar Nominated will take way more money than he should.....because he should take no money at all.
What do you think? In agreement with the Nyquist & Exaggerator odds guesses? Who do you think ends up third choice? Is it crazy to think the bad trips everyone saw on Mo Tom or Victor Espinoza on Whitmore ends up the deciding factor? We have a real chance at seeing a horse be third choice in the Derby with an 88 Beyer as their career high. This is like that year when Anthony Bennett was the number 1 pick.
Derby 2016 Discussion - Phil - Part 3 - How Mad is The Madness?
That's such a great It's Always Sunny clip. I can't wait to peak all over this Derby.
Fair point about the madness here, and that's one thing I failed to mention earlier. Good Derbies are fun to watch. Bad Derbies are fun to bet. Why are they fun to bet? B/c the pay crazy prices. However, I'd temper embracing the madness fully.
Let's look at some history here. Most Derbies fall into one of three categories: Good, Bad, or Bad with One Juggernaut. "Bad with One Juggernaut" years are years where the field sucked, but one horse was so overwhelmingly good, it practically forced your betting strategy. Below is a quick summary by year & category of what the $1 trifecta paid and what the odds were of the top 3 finishers. I'll go back to 2001, the first year they got rid of entries. For Juggernaut years, I'll include the finishing position of the Juggernaut...
Good
2015: Trifecta paid $101; Odds were 3/1 - 9/1 - 4/1
2007: $220; 4/1 - 10/1 - 5/1
2006: $5,709; 6/1 - 30/1 - 16/1
2004: $494; 7/2 - 4/1 - 20/1
2003: $332; 13/1 - 5/2 - 5/1
Bad
2013: $3,462; 5/1 - 35/1 - 6/1
2011: $1,976; 20/1 - 8/1 - 9/1
2010: $1,169; 8/1 - 11/1 - 12/1
2009: $20,750; 50/1 - 6/1 - 19/1
2002: $9,187; 20/1 - 20/1 - 8/1
Bad with One Juggernaut
2014: $1,712; 5/2 - 37/1 - 8/1 (Juggernaut was California Chrome - 1st)
2012: $1,533; 15/1 - 4/1 - 12/1 (Bodemeister - 2nd)
2008: $1,723; 2/1 - 13/1 - 27/1 (Big Brown - 1st)
2005: $66,567; 50/1 - 71/1 - 9/2 (Afleet Alex - 3rd or Bellamy Road - 7th)
2001: $6,119; 11/1 - 50/1 - 5/1 (Point Given - 5th)
Two things stand out here. First, to the non-shock of us, the good fields proved to be pretty formful and result in nothing payouts while the bad fields always went over $1,000. But, even the bad fields had something the good fields had... at least one plausible contender under 10/1 hit the board. The winner might be something crazy, but for the most part, a good horse always sneaks into the tri. Even 2005, when the tri paid $66k, 2nd choice Afleet Alex (who went on to win the Preakness & Belmont) snuck into the tri.
So I think if you want to talk strategy and embracing the madness, this feels like a year where you can take a stand with one or two horses, force them to finish SOMEWHERE in the tri, and then go super-deep in the other two spots. Save Mine that Bird in 2008, I'd argue every winner in this group was at least haveable, so its not like you need to go 18 deep on top.
This year actually feels a lot like 2001 to me. I'd classify this Derby as "Bad," but I think most other people would classify it as "Bad with One Juggernaut," with Nyquist as said Juggernaut. I don't see it. We unloaded against Point Given, and if you hadn't decided to save $9 on a trifecta for whatever stupid reason, we would have had that $6,119 trifecta that year after Monarchos won. Monarchos, of course, is the last horse you, me, and our dad all loved.
Dad's horse this year, at least right now? Destin.
Regarding Destin, it's taken me a while, but he actually reminds me a little bit of Firing Line from last year. Both came in off longer than you'd want layoffs (Firing Line at 6 weeks was a little easier to stomach) and won preps that aren't traditionally considered top-tier preps. Of course, Firing Line gave Triple Crown Winner American Pharoah all he could handle in the stretch.
Ugh, I still haven't gotten to Exaggerator. Maybe next time. Or maybe I'll just keep teasing it for the entire discussion and never get around to it.
Fair point about the madness here, and that's one thing I failed to mention earlier. Good Derbies are fun to watch. Bad Derbies are fun to bet. Why are they fun to bet? B/c the pay crazy prices. However, I'd temper embracing the madness fully.
Let's look at some history here. Most Derbies fall into one of three categories: Good, Bad, or Bad with One Juggernaut. "Bad with One Juggernaut" years are years where the field sucked, but one horse was so overwhelmingly good, it practically forced your betting strategy. Below is a quick summary by year & category of what the $1 trifecta paid and what the odds were of the top 3 finishers. I'll go back to 2001, the first year they got rid of entries. For Juggernaut years, I'll include the finishing position of the Juggernaut...
Good
2015: Trifecta paid $101; Odds were 3/1 - 9/1 - 4/1
2007: $220; 4/1 - 10/1 - 5/1
2006: $5,709; 6/1 - 30/1 - 16/1
2004: $494; 7/2 - 4/1 - 20/1
2003: $332; 13/1 - 5/2 - 5/1
Bad
2013: $3,462; 5/1 - 35/1 - 6/1
2011: $1,976; 20/1 - 8/1 - 9/1
2010: $1,169; 8/1 - 11/1 - 12/1
2009: $20,750; 50/1 - 6/1 - 19/1
2002: $9,187; 20/1 - 20/1 - 8/1
Bad with One Juggernaut
2014: $1,712; 5/2 - 37/1 - 8/1 (Juggernaut was California Chrome - 1st)
2012: $1,533; 15/1 - 4/1 - 12/1 (Bodemeister - 2nd)
2008: $1,723; 2/1 - 13/1 - 27/1 (Big Brown - 1st)
2005: $66,567; 50/1 - 71/1 - 9/2 (Afleet Alex - 3rd or Bellamy Road - 7th)
2001: $6,119; 11/1 - 50/1 - 5/1 (Point Given - 5th)
Two things stand out here. First, to the non-shock of us, the good fields proved to be pretty formful and result in nothing payouts while the bad fields always went over $1,000. But, even the bad fields had something the good fields had... at least one plausible contender under 10/1 hit the board. The winner might be something crazy, but for the most part, a good horse always sneaks into the tri. Even 2005, when the tri paid $66k, 2nd choice Afleet Alex (who went on to win the Preakness & Belmont) snuck into the tri.
So I think if you want to talk strategy and embracing the madness, this feels like a year where you can take a stand with one or two horses, force them to finish SOMEWHERE in the tri, and then go super-deep in the other two spots. Save Mine that Bird in 2008, I'd argue every winner in this group was at least haveable, so its not like you need to go 18 deep on top.
This year actually feels a lot like 2001 to me. I'd classify this Derby as "Bad," but I think most other people would classify it as "Bad with One Juggernaut," with Nyquist as said Juggernaut. I don't see it. We unloaded against Point Given, and if you hadn't decided to save $9 on a trifecta for whatever stupid reason, we would have had that $6,119 trifecta that year after Monarchos won. Monarchos, of course, is the last horse you, me, and our dad all loved.
Dad's horse this year, at least right now? Destin.
Regarding Destin, it's taken me a while, but he actually reminds me a little bit of Firing Line from last year. Both came in off longer than you'd want layoffs (Firing Line at 6 weeks was a little easier to stomach) and won preps that aren't traditionally considered top-tier preps. Of course, Firing Line gave Triple Crown Winner American Pharoah all he could handle in the stretch.
Ugh, I still haven't gotten to Exaggerator. Maybe next time. Or maybe I'll just keep teasing it for the entire discussion and never get around to it.
Wednesday, April 27, 2016
Derby Discussion - David Part 2 - Embrace the Madness
Let me just start by saying that this discussion is on a path to be very Dickens-ish. What I mean is, it's going to be very long and tedious and the best line came right at the start. Ole Charles had, "It was the best of times, it was the worst of times..." and Philip pulled out the "It might not be entertaining, but at least it's long..." Pretty sure that will be my favorite line of this entire discourse.
My overall impressions of this field are extremely similar to yours. It's basically a pile of garbage on a humid July day.
Honestly, as of right now, I can't tell you who I like in the race. I think there are major knocks on virtually every runner in the race. It's like I'm Hue Jackson trying to decide on who to start at QB...do I want to give the ball to Johnny Manziel, Josh McCown, or Austin Davis? There's not a good option here. In this year's Derby we're trying to pick the best of a bad group. Here is how I would rank the major Derby preps on a scale of 1-10 (10 being GREAT, 1 being the worst prep imaginable):
Wood Memorial - 5
Blue Grass - 2
Florida Derby - 5
Santa Anita Derby - 5
Arkansas Derby - 4
Tampa Bay Derby - 6
Spiral Stakes - 1
Louisiana Derby - 3
UAE Derby - ???
So, yeah, it's safe to say I haven't been too impressed. Also, I put like 30 seconds of thought into that, so in four days when I decide I like some horse from the Blue Grass just ignore this.
I really wish Destin wasn't coming off of such a big lay-off. I think he could have been an easy horse to really like. He's won a couple prep races and he'll be a solid price for arguably the best jockey/trainer combo in the country, Todd Pletcher and Javier Castellano. Plus, in the Tampa Bay Derby he beat Outwork (Wood Memorial winner) and Brody's Cause (Blue Grass winner). But, he hasn't raced since March 12th and I feel like he may not be peaking.
Right now, my early thought is that this thing could be absolute mayhem. I might change my mind when I look at the PPs more closely, but I am leaning towards moving away from what we've done most years (keying one or two top horses we love), and instead embracing the madness. I sincerely hope we like a few horses in the races leading up to the Derby, because I want to use about 15 of them from this field.
My overall impressions of this field are extremely similar to yours. It's basically a pile of garbage on a humid July day.
Honestly, as of right now, I can't tell you who I like in the race. I think there are major knocks on virtually every runner in the race. It's like I'm Hue Jackson trying to decide on who to start at QB...do I want to give the ball to Johnny Manziel, Josh McCown, or Austin Davis? There's not a good option here. In this year's Derby we're trying to pick the best of a bad group. Here is how I would rank the major Derby preps on a scale of 1-10 (10 being GREAT, 1 being the worst prep imaginable):
Wood Memorial - 5
Blue Grass - 2
Florida Derby - 5
Santa Anita Derby - 5
Arkansas Derby - 4
Tampa Bay Derby - 6
Spiral Stakes - 1
Louisiana Derby - 3
UAE Derby - ???
So, yeah, it's safe to say I haven't been too impressed. Also, I put like 30 seconds of thought into that, so in four days when I decide I like some horse from the Blue Grass just ignore this.
I really wish Destin wasn't coming off of such a big lay-off. I think he could have been an easy horse to really like. He's won a couple prep races and he'll be a solid price for arguably the best jockey/trainer combo in the country, Todd Pletcher and Javier Castellano. Plus, in the Tampa Bay Derby he beat Outwork (Wood Memorial winner) and Brody's Cause (Blue Grass winner). But, he hasn't raced since March 12th and I feel like he may not be peaking.
Right now, my early thought is that this thing could be absolute mayhem. I might change my mind when I look at the PPs more closely, but I am leaning towards moving away from what we've done most years (keying one or two top horses we love), and instead embracing the madness. I sincerely hope we like a few horses in the races leading up to the Derby, because I want to use about 15 of them from this field.
Derby 2016 Discussion - Phil Pt. 1 - The Kick-off, or How Bad is This Group?
Oh here it is, a tradition unlike any other... The Derby thread! This is something like the 8th year David and I have been doing this, and it tends to meander for about 12,000 words. It may not be entertaining, but at least it's long. As usual, I set the table, we go back and forth about the race generally until Thursday night (May 5th this year) when David closes us out.
For starters, a recap of last year. Last year, we both gushed over how stacked the field was, talked a lot about Materiality (is he retired?), & ended up betting him & American Pharoah heavy. Of course, we ended up with a measily $100 tri for all our trouble, and blew that on the last race. Moving on forever.
Next, so you know the names I'm about to rattle off, here's a list of the Derby contenders this year.
Last year, like I said, we had a great Derby field. And that bore out as great fields usually do... A predictable trifecta and low payouts across the board. So while it's nice to watch a good field, it's much more fun and exciting to bet a bad field.... AND HOLY SHIT DO WE HAVE A STINKER ON OUR HANDS THIS YEAR!
Last year, each region was either dominated by one horse or saw a horse emerge as a plausible star. This year has been a complete mess. Mohaymen was the defacto early favorite for quite a while, but he was pretty slow on paper, only managing to muster back-to-back Beyer Speed Figures (or just "Beyers" for short) of 95 while winning The Holy Bull & The Fountain of Youth, two of the major prep races in Florida. I don't know how many people were ever sold on Mohaymen - personally, I was not. The final Florida prep, the Florida Derby, was billed as a showdown between Mohaymen and Nyquist. Mohaymen essentially no-showed the race, finishing a distant fourth. Nyquist went on to romp pretty easily. His winning Beyer? A 94. We're not getting any faster here.
After that win, Nyquist became the heavy favorite for the Derby, and on reputation, it makes sense. He's 7-for-7 lifetime, he won the Breeder's Cup Juvenile and was the champion 2yo, and he's an easy 2-for-2 this year. I get WHY he's going to be 7/2 or even less. However, unlike past big favorites like American Pharoah or California Chrome, there's a problem here...
HE'S NOT FAST.
Well, he's not at two turns at least. Nyquist ran one of the fastest preps of the season in the San Vicente, but that's a seven furlong race. It's like assuming a sprinter who was fast at 200 meters can also run just as fast at 800 meters. Nyquist did win the Florida Derby, but once Mohaymen showed he was not going to fire his best shot, it was clearly a walkover at that point. Pretty much all you need to know about the quality of the remaining field is that the 2nd place runner in the Florida Derby, Majesto, needed five starts just to get his first win and will probably be one of the two or three longest shots on the board next Saturday. Also, visually, Nyquist was weaving in and out, usually a good indication that a horse is tired. The Florida Derby is run at 1 1/8 miles. The Kentucky Derby is 1 1/4 miles. That's not good. Nyquist's fastest two turn Beyer is that Florida Derby win with a 94. I believe seven others in this field have run faster than that at two turns, many much faster. Nyquist is a good horse. Nyquist can probably win the race. But at the price, he's one of the worst values I think I've ever seen in a Derby.
Now, one positive I didn't mention for Nyquist is pace. Nyquist likes to sit close to the pace. In my estimation, this is a Derby without a whole lot of early speed, a stark contrast from most years. It seems like Danzing Candy is definitely the pace-setter, followed by Outwork, Nyquist, and Destin close behind, and after that.... I got nothing. The race is full of deep closers, something you just don't see in a typical Derby. In general, I like to bet horses closer to the pace anyway, and we've found that horses closer to the pace tend to have the advantage anyway.
All of it actually makes me lean a little bit in favor of Destin right now. He should get a good trip, he's going to be over 10/1, and he's fast. His Tampa Bay Derby win was 2nd fastest two turn prep this year. He ran a 101 there and beat Outwork, who went on to win the Wood Memorial, which is generally one of the strongest races of the prep season. The big worry with Destin is that he hasn't run since mid-March. Most horses run their final prep 4-6 weeks prior to the Derby, and Destin hasn't run in 8 weeks. However, given the trend of how much less horses race anyway, his talent, and his expected odds, that's a measured risk I'm willing to take. I have others I like, but I've gone on too long already. I'll save my Exaggerator love for a later post.
For starters, a recap of last year. Last year, we both gushed over how stacked the field was, talked a lot about Materiality (is he retired?), & ended up betting him & American Pharoah heavy. Of course, we ended up with a measily $100 tri for all our trouble, and blew that on the last race. Moving on forever.
Next, so you know the names I'm about to rattle off, here's a list of the Derby contenders this year.
Last year, like I said, we had a great Derby field. And that bore out as great fields usually do... A predictable trifecta and low payouts across the board. So while it's nice to watch a good field, it's much more fun and exciting to bet a bad field.... AND HOLY SHIT DO WE HAVE A STINKER ON OUR HANDS THIS YEAR!
Last year, each region was either dominated by one horse or saw a horse emerge as a plausible star. This year has been a complete mess. Mohaymen was the defacto early favorite for quite a while, but he was pretty slow on paper, only managing to muster back-to-back Beyer Speed Figures (or just "Beyers" for short) of 95 while winning The Holy Bull & The Fountain of Youth, two of the major prep races in Florida. I don't know how many people were ever sold on Mohaymen - personally, I was not. The final Florida prep, the Florida Derby, was billed as a showdown between Mohaymen and Nyquist. Mohaymen essentially no-showed the race, finishing a distant fourth. Nyquist went on to romp pretty easily. His winning Beyer? A 94. We're not getting any faster here.
After that win, Nyquist became the heavy favorite for the Derby, and on reputation, it makes sense. He's 7-for-7 lifetime, he won the Breeder's Cup Juvenile and was the champion 2yo, and he's an easy 2-for-2 this year. I get WHY he's going to be 7/2 or even less. However, unlike past big favorites like American Pharoah or California Chrome, there's a problem here...
HE'S NOT FAST.
Well, he's not at two turns at least. Nyquist ran one of the fastest preps of the season in the San Vicente, but that's a seven furlong race. It's like assuming a sprinter who was fast at 200 meters can also run just as fast at 800 meters. Nyquist did win the Florida Derby, but once Mohaymen showed he was not going to fire his best shot, it was clearly a walkover at that point. Pretty much all you need to know about the quality of the remaining field is that the 2nd place runner in the Florida Derby, Majesto, needed five starts just to get his first win and will probably be one of the two or three longest shots on the board next Saturday. Also, visually, Nyquist was weaving in and out, usually a good indication that a horse is tired. The Florida Derby is run at 1 1/8 miles. The Kentucky Derby is 1 1/4 miles. That's not good. Nyquist's fastest two turn Beyer is that Florida Derby win with a 94. I believe seven others in this field have run faster than that at two turns, many much faster. Nyquist is a good horse. Nyquist can probably win the race. But at the price, he's one of the worst values I think I've ever seen in a Derby.
Now, one positive I didn't mention for Nyquist is pace. Nyquist likes to sit close to the pace. In my estimation, this is a Derby without a whole lot of early speed, a stark contrast from most years. It seems like Danzing Candy is definitely the pace-setter, followed by Outwork, Nyquist, and Destin close behind, and after that.... I got nothing. The race is full of deep closers, something you just don't see in a typical Derby. In general, I like to bet horses closer to the pace anyway, and we've found that horses closer to the pace tend to have the advantage anyway.
All of it actually makes me lean a little bit in favor of Destin right now. He should get a good trip, he's going to be over 10/1, and he's fast. His Tampa Bay Derby win was 2nd fastest two turn prep this year. He ran a 101 there and beat Outwork, who went on to win the Wood Memorial, which is generally one of the strongest races of the prep season. The big worry with Destin is that he hasn't run since mid-March. Most horses run their final prep 4-6 weeks prior to the Derby, and Destin hasn't run in 8 weeks. However, given the trend of how much less horses race anyway, his talent, and his expected odds, that's a measured risk I'm willing to take. I have others I like, but I've gone on too long already. I'll save my Exaggerator love for a later post.
Kentucky Derby (and Oaks...) Betting Pool
Hey Everyone!
Well, it's been a few weeks since BryanH took down the NCAA Survivor Pool, the rest of you were just horrible, horrible losers. You entered the Survivor Pool with your little head filled with dreams and delusions of grandeur, and you woke up to the soul crushing reality that you aren't special, that you aren't a winner, and that you are certainly no BryanH. The Survivor Pool is a harsh mistress and add the end of the day, there can be only one winner.
BUT ALL IS NOT LOST!
May is just around the corner, and that means it is time for the Derby to descend upon us with all of it's fury. Sure, it is a horribly overrated race with stupidly expensive tickets that rarely produces a winner worth a damn. But, it is also a weekend of racing that attracts more dumb money than any other weekend of the entire year, and that leaves it ripe for the picking!
As you may remember, we ran this betting pool last year and did quite well. Just look at how we did last year:
WE LOST EVERYTHING
Oh, yeah, that actually isn't a great selling point. I guess some people would look at that and say, "Why would I put you idiots in charge of my money, if I want to lose I can do that on my own!" To that I would simply respond, "Yeah......you kind of have a point." But, maybe we're due? Do you really want to be sitting on the sideline while the rest of us are cashing a $40,000 pick 5*?
Ok, real quick, here is what this pool is...
We are going to take a few big swings at jackpot type bets, we're talking Pick 4's, Pick 5's, maybe a few superfectas. Last year's payouts sucked, and that's kind of why we didn't hit. We aren't looking to make a 5% profit, we're looking to hit something big. Or, even better, somethingS big....like, multiple things, because more is better than less.
What makes things even better? There doesn't have to be only one. WE CAN ALL WIN TOGETHER!
*Note - We probably won't hit a $40,000 pick 5.
Getting in on the fun is simple. The vast majority of you know how PayPal and Venmo work. Just send over your payment on your perferred platform to tourneypools@gmail.com, and we'll add you to the mix. On the actual days of betting, I'll be tweeting how we are doing on our Twitter handle "TourneyPools." If you prefer slow results, we'll post how we did on the following Sunday at the latest. Or, if there is interest in it, we might just create a Google Doc and update what's going on there, like we do with the NCAA Pools.
Well, it's been a few weeks since BryanH took down the NCAA Survivor Pool, the rest of you were just horrible, horrible losers. You entered the Survivor Pool with your little head filled with dreams and delusions of grandeur, and you woke up to the soul crushing reality that you aren't special, that you aren't a winner, and that you are certainly no BryanH. The Survivor Pool is a harsh mistress and add the end of the day, there can be only one winner.
BUT ALL IS NOT LOST!
May is just around the corner, and that means it is time for the Derby to descend upon us with all of it's fury. Sure, it is a horribly overrated race with stupidly expensive tickets that rarely produces a winner worth a damn. But, it is also a weekend of racing that attracts more dumb money than any other weekend of the entire year, and that leaves it ripe for the picking!
As you may remember, we ran this betting pool last year and did quite well. Just look at how we did last year:
WE LOST EVERYTHING
Oh, yeah, that actually isn't a great selling point. I guess some people would look at that and say, "Why would I put you idiots in charge of my money, if I want to lose I can do that on my own!" To that I would simply respond, "Yeah......you kind of have a point." But, maybe we're due? Do you really want to be sitting on the sideline while the rest of us are cashing a $40,000 pick 5*?
Ok, real quick, here is what this pool is...
We are going to take a few big swings at jackpot type bets, we're talking Pick 4's, Pick 5's, maybe a few superfectas. Last year's payouts sucked, and that's kind of why we didn't hit. We aren't looking to make a 5% profit, we're looking to hit something big. Or, even better, somethingS big....like, multiple things, because more is better than less.
What makes things even better? There doesn't have to be only one. WE CAN ALL WIN TOGETHER!
*Note - We probably won't hit a $40,000 pick 5.
Getting in on the fun is simple. The vast majority of you know how PayPal and Venmo work. Just send over your payment on your perferred platform to tourneypools@gmail.com, and we'll add you to the mix. On the actual days of betting, I'll be tweeting how we are doing on our Twitter handle "TourneyPools." If you prefer slow results, we'll post how we did on the following Sunday at the latest. Or, if there is interest in it, we might just create a Google Doc and update what's going on there, like we do with the NCAA Pools.
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