Derby Discussion - David Part 2 - Embrace the Madness

Let me just start by saying that this discussion is on a path to be very Dickens-ish. What I mean is, it's going to be very long and tedious and the best line came right at the start. Ole Charles had, "It was the best of times, it was the worst of times..." and Philip pulled out the "It might not be entertaining, but at least it's long..." Pretty sure that will be my favorite line of this entire discourse.

My overall impressions of this field are extremely similar to yours. It's basically a pile of garbage on a humid July day.

Honestly, as of right now, I can't tell you who I like in the race. I think there are major knocks on virtually every runner in the race. It's like I'm Hue Jackson trying to decide on who to start at QB...do I want to give the ball to Johnny Manziel, Josh McCown, or Austin Davis? There's not a good option here. In this year's Derby we're trying to pick the best of a bad group. Here is how I would rank the major Derby preps on a scale of 1-10 (10 being GREAT, 1 being the worst prep imaginable):

Wood Memorial - 5
Blue Grass - 2
Florida Derby - 5
Santa Anita Derby - 5
Arkansas Derby - 4
Tampa Bay Derby - 6
Spiral Stakes - 1
Louisiana Derby - 3
UAE Derby - ???

So, yeah, it's safe to say I haven't been too impressed. Also, I put like 30 seconds of thought into that, so in four days when I decide I like some horse from the Blue Grass just ignore this.

I really wish Destin wasn't coming off of such a big lay-off. I think he could have been an easy horse to really like. He's won a couple prep races and he'll be a solid price for arguably the best jockey/trainer combo in the country, Todd Pletcher and Javier Castellano. Plus, in the Tampa Bay Derby he beat Outwork (Wood Memorial winner) and Brody's Cause (Blue Grass winner). But, he hasn't raced since March 12th and I feel like he may not be peaking.

Right now, my early thought is that this thing could be absolute mayhem. I might change my mind when I look at the PPs more closely, but I am leaning towards moving away from what we've done most years (keying one or two top horses we love), and instead embracing the madness. I sincerely hope we like a few horses in the races leading up to the Derby, because I want to use about 15 of them from this field.