If you're looking for any post we've made in relation to the Derby, we go you covered right here!
David - So It Begins
Phil - My Year With No Agenda
David - More Like Nomaha
Phil - A Marvel-ous Affair
Saturday, May 4, 2019
Thursday, May 2, 2019
My Derby Tears, I mean Tiers, and Some Oaks Picks
Bro, good for you doing quotes...but it's 10 pm on Thursday night and it's too late this year for me to go through the last four seasons of a tv show finding hilarious quotes for our reader (Hi again mom!). Plus if it was Big Bang Theory or Cincinnati Reds quotes mom wouldn't even get them.
So, instead, it's time I just do this old school and throw out my Derby Tiers.
Tier 4 AKA I don't like them, not at all. (post position order)
Gray Magician - More like gray slowician.
Plus Que Parfait - Named after a lame dessert I guess
Cutting Humor - Cutting isn't funny, and neither is this horse
Master Fencer - I don't think a second tier Japanese runner can win the Derby
Tier 3 AKA I don't like them, but I don't completely hate them. (post position order)
War of Will - Bad draw, awful last race, not particularly fast in his good races
Tax - Bad draw, dream set-up last, pedigree to run all day so maybe stumbles into third with a dream trip.
Vekoma - Don't buy him going 10 furlongs
Haikal - He's probably a tier 4 horse with his hoof issues, but I'll leave him here.
Long Range Toddy - Tier 4 in the slop, if the track comes up fast somehow he can maybe bounce back off the Arkansas Derby debacle
Spinoff - Philip like him some, but I just can't see it.
Country House - His maiden win is the only time he's looked good all year, has just been a total plodder in stakes races
Bodexpress - Probably my favorite of this group, but can't put a maiden any higher.
Tier 2 AKA Maybe there's a chance (order of preference last to first)
Tacitus - He's done nothing wrong. He won the Tampa Bay Derby and the Wood Memorial. He's gone from Mott's third best Derby shot, to his best Derby shot. His daddy won the Wood before finishing ninth in the Derby as the second choice, and I don't think the apple fell far from the tree.
Improbable - I am much less bullish on him than my brother is. I think he's Baffert's third best entry in this race and seriously question his ability to go 10 furlongs, oh and Country House is the best horse he's beaten.....
Roadster - Another of the Baffert trio. I think he's talented, but like Improbable, I don't think 10 furlongs is going to be his wheelhouse.
By My Standards - The talk of the backstretch with his AM workouts and easily the best horse out of the Louisiana Derby IMO. Serious pedigree questions, but have to use some.
Win Win Win - Tons of trouble last out in the Blue Grass, I think he was the best horse in there. He got hung super wide in the Tampa Bay Derby or he might've threatened Tacitus that day. He'll be a big price, he can hit the board.
Tier 1 AKA I'm tired and these are my picks (order of preference last to first)
Code of Honor - Quite simply, no horse in this field would have caught Maximum Security after he went a half mile in 48 and 4. Not a single damn one of them. And, I think CoH's Fountain of Youth is even better than it looks, he hit the lead early and kind of pulled himself up a bit. He's the best closer in this race, IMO. He's better than Tacitus, and I think he's better than Win Win Win. My only reservation is how quick the pace will be and if he will get much of a set-up.
Game Winner - I'm convinced this horse is Baffert's best chance at this year's Derby. He's bred to love the distance. Last out, he went way wide at Santa Anita or he probably beats Roadster there. He was hands down the best two-year-old in the country last year, talent is not an issue. Honestly, I'm not sure why you think Improbable possibly has more talent than Game Winner, at no point in Improbable's career has he been faster than Game Winner. Of my top three picks, Code of Honor needs a hot pace to win, Maximum Security needs a slower pace to win, with Game Winner it doesn't matter how the pace sets up.
Maximum Security - Regardless of my praises of Game Winner, Maximum Security is my top pick in this year's Derby. No horse has ever been within 3 1/2 lengths of him at the finish and he has the top two speed figures in the race...oh, and he's gonna be like the fifth or sixth choice. You can't let the fastest horse in the Derby go off sixth choice and not bet them. Yes, if Vekoma, War of Will, and Tax are all hell bent on making the lead and end up going 46 and 3, he'll almost certainly lose. But, I don't expect that to happen. I think he's going to offer the best value in the race.
With all that said, it doesn't seem like we're really on the same page this year (Outside of Maximum Security, somehow). That can't be a good thing. I still can't believe Improbable is your top pick...wow. The next couple days are gonna be interesting...
Oh, and since it's almost Friday, a few quick thoughts about the Oaks card, going to keep them quick.
1. Newspaperofrecord in the sixth race might be the most talented horse running at Churchill Downs this weekend, she could be an absolute superstar. Her two year old season was ridiculous. She should be a very short priced winner.
2. McKinzie is another likely winner, and another likely very short price in the seventh race.
3. A couple of more decently priced runners I think will be tough are Valdolobo, the 9 horse in race 4 if they're on the turf, and Queen of Beas, the 4 horse in race 5.
4. The Oaks is wide open. Horses like Choclate Kisses (20/1), Lady Apple (20/1), and Jeltrin (15/1) all have a shot at being close at the finish.
So, instead, it's time I just do this old school and throw out my Derby Tiers.
Tier 4 AKA I don't like them, not at all. (post position order)
Gray Magician - More like gray slowician.
Plus Que Parfait - Named after a lame dessert I guess
Cutting Humor - Cutting isn't funny, and neither is this horse
Master Fencer - I don't think a second tier Japanese runner can win the Derby
Tier 3 AKA I don't like them, but I don't completely hate them. (post position order)
War of Will - Bad draw, awful last race, not particularly fast in his good races
Tax - Bad draw, dream set-up last, pedigree to run all day so maybe stumbles into third with a dream trip.
Vekoma - Don't buy him going 10 furlongs
Haikal - He's probably a tier 4 horse with his hoof issues, but I'll leave him here.
Long Range Toddy - Tier 4 in the slop, if the track comes up fast somehow he can maybe bounce back off the Arkansas Derby debacle
Spinoff - Philip like him some, but I just can't see it.
Country House - His maiden win is the only time he's looked good all year, has just been a total plodder in stakes races
Bodexpress - Probably my favorite of this group, but can't put a maiden any higher.
Tier 2 AKA Maybe there's a chance (order of preference last to first)
Tacitus - He's done nothing wrong. He won the Tampa Bay Derby and the Wood Memorial. He's gone from Mott's third best Derby shot, to his best Derby shot. His daddy won the Wood before finishing ninth in the Derby as the second choice, and I don't think the apple fell far from the tree.
Improbable - I am much less bullish on him than my brother is. I think he's Baffert's third best entry in this race and seriously question his ability to go 10 furlongs, oh and Country House is the best horse he's beaten.....
Roadster - Another of the Baffert trio. I think he's talented, but like Improbable, I don't think 10 furlongs is going to be his wheelhouse.
By My Standards - The talk of the backstretch with his AM workouts and easily the best horse out of the Louisiana Derby IMO. Serious pedigree questions, but have to use some.
Win Win Win - Tons of trouble last out in the Blue Grass, I think he was the best horse in there. He got hung super wide in the Tampa Bay Derby or he might've threatened Tacitus that day. He'll be a big price, he can hit the board.
Tier 1 AKA I'm tired and these are my picks (order of preference last to first)
Code of Honor - Quite simply, no horse in this field would have caught Maximum Security after he went a half mile in 48 and 4. Not a single damn one of them. And, I think CoH's Fountain of Youth is even better than it looks, he hit the lead early and kind of pulled himself up a bit. He's the best closer in this race, IMO. He's better than Tacitus, and I think he's better than Win Win Win. My only reservation is how quick the pace will be and if he will get much of a set-up.
Game Winner - I'm convinced this horse is Baffert's best chance at this year's Derby. He's bred to love the distance. Last out, he went way wide at Santa Anita or he probably beats Roadster there. He was hands down the best two-year-old in the country last year, talent is not an issue. Honestly, I'm not sure why you think Improbable possibly has more talent than Game Winner, at no point in Improbable's career has he been faster than Game Winner. Of my top three picks, Code of Honor needs a hot pace to win, Maximum Security needs a slower pace to win, with Game Winner it doesn't matter how the pace sets up.
Maximum Security - Regardless of my praises of Game Winner, Maximum Security is my top pick in this year's Derby. No horse has ever been within 3 1/2 lengths of him at the finish and he has the top two speed figures in the race...oh, and he's gonna be like the fifth or sixth choice. You can't let the fastest horse in the Derby go off sixth choice and not bet them. Yes, if Vekoma, War of Will, and Tax are all hell bent on making the lead and end up going 46 and 3, he'll almost certainly lose. But, I don't expect that to happen. I think he's going to offer the best value in the race.
With all that said, it doesn't seem like we're really on the same page this year (Outside of Maximum Security, somehow). That can't be a good thing. I still can't believe Improbable is your top pick...wow. The next couple days are gonna be interesting...
Oh, and since it's almost Friday, a few quick thoughts about the Oaks card, going to keep them quick.
1. Newspaperofrecord in the sixth race might be the most talented horse running at Churchill Downs this weekend, she could be an absolute superstar. Her two year old season was ridiculous. She should be a very short priced winner.
2. McKinzie is another likely winner, and another likely very short price in the seventh race.
3. A couple of more decently priced runners I think will be tough are Valdolobo, the 9 horse in race 4 if they're on the turf, and Queen of Beas, the 4 horse in race 5.
4. The Oaks is wide open. Horses like Choclate Kisses (20/1), Lady Apple (20/1), and Jeltrin (15/1) all have a shot at being close at the finish.
2019 Derby - A Marvel-ous Affair
…. That was a pretty good burn on Improbable. Touche.
Despite the late start, we've already done a deep dive into pace, key questions, and... Other things maybe... So now it's time for the quote-en-ing! After your little crack about me seeing Endgame twice (which is true - the movie is so much damn fun), I'm opting to lean into it and use Marvel Cinematic Universe quotes to pair with each horse. Fun! (Is this a bit we shameless steal from Bill Simmons every year? You betcha!) As usual, I'll include my fair value odds in parentheses.
"I look around at us and you know what I see? Losers..... But not today. Today it's giving us something. It's giving us a chance." - Star-Lord
To this entire God forsaken field. By hook or by crook, one of these 20 (or 19 depending on Haikal's status) is going to be crown a Derby champion. God help us.
"Before we get started, does anyone want to get out?" - Captain America
To my "very little hope" 200/1 shots War of Will, Gray Magician, Plus Que Parfait, Master Fencer, Country House, and Bodexpress. I cannot forsee any of these horses hitting the board except maaaaaaybe Country House if the pace is just insane. As David alluded to though, I don't think that's going to happen with Omaha Beach out. I'm also throwing my lone 99/1 shot, Cutting Humor, in here as well.
"I don't recall killing your family. I doubt I'll remember killing you either." - Ronan The Accuser
I really cannot think of anything interesting to say about Haikal (33/1) or Long Range Toddy (33/1), a couple horses I doubt we'll remember being in this field.
"I can do this all day." - Captain America
I don't know if Win Win Win (33/1) has the talent to win the Derby, but you can bet he'll be advancing at the end of the race. Of all the deep DEEP closers, I think he's the best. He's the type that sneaks into the exacta/trifecta, so don't leave him off your exotics.
"Now, this is important. Once the battery is removed, everything is gonna slam into emergency mode. Once we have it, we gotta move quickly, so you definitely need to get that last. Or we could just get it first and improvise." - Rocket
I feel like Tax (24/1) had a decent plan and shot until he drew the two hole. The break is gonna determine if he has a shot. He'll be a great price, so I think we'll use him a little.
"I'm made of rocks, as you can see, but don't let that intimidate you. You don't need to be afraid, unless you're made of scissors! Just a little rock-paper-scissors joke for you!" - Korg
All we really know about Code of Honor (19/1) is that he can win when he has a crazy pace to fire at. I can say the same for half the closers in here. I know you like him, but he doesn't scare me.
"I do what he does, just slower." - Falcon
I don't see the logic in betting Roadster (9/1) when he looks like a poor man's Game Winner and figures to be similar odds. Yes, he beat Game Winner last out, but he had a perfect trip while Game Winner opted to go four wide on both turns.
"Dormammu, I've come to bargain" - Dr. Strange
Game Winner (8/1) just can't catch a break, running second in both his preps this year. First, he loses by a nose to Omaha Beach. Then he gets caught after Roadster has a perfect trip. It feels like he should get the W one of these times, but a repeat "close but no cigar" performance would not be shocking.
If any horse is gonna close on Saturday, I think it's Tacitus (7/1). He's had two solid setups to run into for sure. At this point though, he feels like one of the horses with the least questions, now being the only horse in the race with a two prep wins with one of those coming in the key final round of preps.
Ant-Man: My days of breaking into places and stealing shit are over. What do you want me to do?
Hank Pym: I want you to break into some place and steal some shit.
Like we've mentioned already, Maximum Security (7/1) may not need to think too hard beyond "just do what you did before and it might work again." Now, he won't get away with a :49 half mile, but does he have the talent to take a 1-1/2 length lead and a :47 half mile to Derby victory? Against this group, it wouldn't shock me.
"Anybody on our side hiding any shocking and fantastic abilities they'd like to disclose? I'm open to suggestions." - Iron Man
Despite your cracks, Improbable (5/1) is the only horse left in this race that could be a special horse. Both of his 2019 races are just bizarre, and if Omaha Beach wasn't in the Arkansas Derby, he wins that race by six lengths and is your heavy favorite.
Despite the late start, we've already done a deep dive into pace, key questions, and... Other things maybe... So now it's time for the quote-en-ing! After your little crack about me seeing Endgame twice (which is true - the movie is so much damn fun), I'm opting to lean into it and use Marvel Cinematic Universe quotes to pair with each horse. Fun! (Is this a bit we shameless steal from Bill Simmons every year? You betcha!) As usual, I'll include my fair value odds in parentheses.
"I look around at us and you know what I see? Losers..... But not today. Today it's giving us something. It's giving us a chance." - Star-Lord
To this entire God forsaken field. By hook or by crook, one of these 20 (or 19 depending on Haikal's status) is going to be crown a Derby champion. God help us.
"Before we get started, does anyone want to get out?" - Captain America
To my "very little hope" 200/1 shots War of Will, Gray Magician, Plus Que Parfait, Master Fencer, Country House, and Bodexpress. I cannot forsee any of these horses hitting the board except maaaaaaybe Country House if the pace is just insane. As David alluded to though, I don't think that's going to happen with Omaha Beach out. I'm also throwing my lone 99/1 shot, Cutting Humor, in here as well.
"I don't recall killing your family. I doubt I'll remember killing you either." - Ronan The Accuser
I really cannot think of anything interesting to say about Haikal (33/1) or Long Range Toddy (33/1), a couple horses I doubt we'll remember being in this field.
"I can do this all day." - Captain America
I don't know if Win Win Win (33/1) has the talent to win the Derby, but you can bet he'll be advancing at the end of the race. Of all the deep DEEP closers, I think he's the best. He's the type that sneaks into the exacta/trifecta, so don't leave him off your exotics.
"Now, this is important. Once the battery is removed, everything is gonna slam into emergency mode. Once we have it, we gotta move quickly, so you definitely need to get that last. Or we could just get it first and improvise." - Rocket
I feel like Tax (24/1) had a decent plan and shot until he drew the two hole. The break is gonna determine if he has a shot. He'll be a great price, so I think we'll use him a little.
"I'm made of rocks, as you can see, but don't let that intimidate you. You don't need to be afraid, unless you're made of scissors! Just a little rock-paper-scissors joke for you!" - Korg
All we really know about Code of Honor (19/1) is that he can win when he has a crazy pace to fire at. I can say the same for half the closers in here. I know you like him, but he doesn't scare me.
"Don't do anything I would do. And don't do anything I wouldn't do. There's a little gray area in there. That's where you operate." - Tony Stark
I'm putting both Spinoff (19/1) and By My Standards (15/1) here, as both look to sit similar trips, both are coming out of the Louisiana Derby, and both should probably figure into our bets somehow, but I haven't figured out yet.
"Just because something works doesn't mean it can't be improved" - Shuri
I do want to like Vekoma (15/1), who looks like he can sit a perfect trip... if it weren't for that insane stride of his down the lane winning the Blue Grass. Not sure he wants an extra furlong.
"Just because something works doesn't mean it can't be improved" - Shuri
I do want to like Vekoma (15/1), who looks like he can sit a perfect trip... if it weren't for that insane stride of his down the lane winning the Blue Grass. Not sure he wants an extra furlong.
"I do what he does, just slower." - Falcon
I don't see the logic in betting Roadster (9/1) when he looks like a poor man's Game Winner and figures to be similar odds. Yes, he beat Game Winner last out, but he had a perfect trip while Game Winner opted to go four wide on both turns.
"Dormammu, I've come to bargain" - Dr. Strange
Game Winner (8/1) just can't catch a break, running second in both his preps this year. First, he loses by a nose to Omaha Beach. Then he gets caught after Roadster has a perfect trip. It feels like he should get the W one of these times, but a repeat "close but no cigar" performance would not be shocking.
"On your left." - Captain America
If any horse is gonna close on Saturday, I think it's Tacitus (7/1). He's had two solid setups to run into for sure. At this point though, he feels like one of the horses with the least questions, now being the only horse in the race with a two prep wins with one of those coming in the key final round of preps.
Ant-Man: My days of breaking into places and stealing shit are over. What do you want me to do?
Hank Pym: I want you to break into some place and steal some shit.
Like we've mentioned already, Maximum Security (7/1) may not need to think too hard beyond "just do what you did before and it might work again." Now, he won't get away with a :49 half mile, but does he have the talent to take a 1-1/2 length lead and a :47 half mile to Derby victory? Against this group, it wouldn't shock me.
"Anybody on our side hiding any shocking and fantastic abilities they'd like to disclose? I'm open to suggestions." - Iron Man
Despite your cracks, Improbable (5/1) is the only horse left in this race that could be a special horse. Both of his 2019 races are just bizarre, and if Omaha Beach wasn't in the Arkansas Derby, he wins that race by six lengths and is your heavy favorite.
Wednesday, May 1, 2019
2019 Derby More Like Nomaha
Normally the Wednesday of Derby week is pretty uneventful. Horses have finished their real training, so there's not much activity there. The post draw is over, so that's all done. It's kind of just the calm before the storm (figuratively most years, literally this year). But, just when you relax....BOOM, the Derby favorite scratches.
Look Omaha Beach was going to be a major contender. He was the morning line favorite, the likely post time favorite, and a horse that had the tactical speed to be involved early in the race along with the talent and stamina to be tough to run down late....and now he'll be watching from the sidelines.
This really does change the complexion of the whole race, and it drastically alters my answers to the questions you posed fair brother...
1) What is Maximum Security going to do?
Well, I thought Omaha Beach would put pressure to him 6-8 furlongs in, now, the horse's pressing probably aren't as talented as the horse expected to go. We discussed this a bit earlier tonight IRL, but this scratch moves Maximum Security up the list more than any other horse in the race, IMO. He's now potential lone speed, and the only horse as fast as him on paper has scratched. Lone speed and possibly most talented is a pretty scary combination, especially when he might be 10/1....
2) When will we see the real Improbable?
When he cuts back to 7 furlongs and wins the King's Bishop in a few months? (for the non racing fans, this is a sick burn, trust me).
3) What do you make of the Santa Anita Derby?
Honestly, it's just like all these preps to me. I don't think it was special or terrible. The top two are solid runners, and there wasn't a whole lot behind them. But, there wasn't really a great and deep prep all year. I do think Game Winner is the more talented runner out of this race, remember he was 1 to 2 against Omaha Beach a couple months ago. At that point in time he was everyone's Derby favorite, he's a nose and a half length away from being a 2/1 favorite Saturday.
4) How cocky will Mike Smith be on Omaha Beach?
Well.
OK, now that I've completed my homework assignment and answered all your questions. As the saying goes, pace makes the race. And, the pace in this Derby isn't all that clear cut. Or maybe it is?
I am going on one real assumption here: Maximum Security will be sent for the lead. I think there are legitimately 10 to 12 other runners in this race that want to be close to the pace, one or two of them may decide to go for the lead. But, I think Maximum Security is the only horse in the race that virtually has to send early and try to make the front.
With that assumption made, it seems like there are three real possibilities that exist regarding how the pace of this Derby shapes up:
1) Everyone decides Maximum Security is the pace of the race, and they decide he isn't a superstar and it isn't worth ruining their horse's chances by trying to beat him to the lead....in this scenario Maximum Security gets an easy lead and has a real chance to lead the whole way.
2) A couple of other jockeys/trainers decide they need to gun early, that even if it could backfire, it's their best chance. In this scenario the pace still might not be that fast, and it could work out for the jockeys that try this.
3) Everyone decides Maximum Security is a threat and they can't let him go early, three or four others really gun with him, and the pace gets out of hand.
Honestly, it's hard for me to feel strongly one way or the other on this. But, I actually kind of lean to option 1. The 7 post is ideal for a front runner like Maximum Security. He's also drawn outside of the other horses I consider to be his main pace competition, War of Will, Gray Magician, and Vekoma. I think that leaves Maximum Security with a tactical advantage, along with a talent advantage, over those rivals.
But, while I think Maximum Security is on the lead, what happens behind him is way murkier...here's how I see the field.
Front Runner: Maximum Security
Could Try to Make Lead: War of Will, Gray Magician, Vekoma
Willing to Sit Just off the Leader(s): Tax, By My Standards, Improbable, Game Winner, Roadster, Long Range Toddy, Spinoff, Bodexpress
Midpack or Further Back: Tacitus, Cutting Humor, Code of Honor
Want to Be Way Back: Plus Que Parfait, Haikal, Win Win Win, Master Fencer(?), Country House
So, while I don't think there's a lot of pure speed, it seems like most of the field wants to be close to the early pace.
I think both of us basically have decided that the potential to be lone speed makes Maximum Security a real threat to steal this race. So, I've discussed the case for him, he's talented and could be alone up front. But, who are our other main contenders? I don't want this to come across like he's a horse I consider a lock...I think this is a year where you have to spread out a bit and not get completely married to one runner. Right?
2019 Derby - My Year With No Agenda
Yes, selfishly shepherding another life into this world has really limited my ability to put, well, any foot forward on this. Normally, by the time we have post positions, we're about five posts deep. That said, brevity is the soul of wit, and it's probably better for everyone that we didn't spend 10,000 words talking about the field when we didn't even have post positions. So, for my first post, we have post positions, morning line odds, workout hype, etc etc etc, and...
I have no idea what to do.
It's an odd feeling to be sitting less than 100 hours from post time with absolutely no agenda. To be fair though, that's how horse players should handicap every race - let the odds dictate your strategy. The Derby is no ordinary race though, so the odds don't matter quite as much. To say they're useless would be folly.
With that said, I'm going to avoid making a pick even now. Instead, I'm going to posit what I feel are the key questions in this race that you need to answer, and answering those will ultimately determine how I feel about the race...
1) What is Maximum Security going to do?
Pace makes the race, and with Maximum Security as the clear pace setter, what he does will lead to a lot of your strategy. There's an interesting twist to Maximum Security, and that twist is that his owners also own one of the favorites, Game Winner. Game Winner is an impeccably bred champion 2yo with the potential to be worth millions. Maximum Security is a homebred of questionable pedigree that owners Gary & Mary West risked to lose for a mere $16,000 in his debut. For Game Winner to have his best chance, he'll need a pace to fire at... a pace that Maximum Security can ensure. If Maximum Security goes nuts and throws out a sub :45 half mile, I think we'll be wanting to structure bets around closers.
That said, Maximum Security is also the only early speed horse left in a Derby with a bunch of stalkers that may not see him as a legitimate threat. 17 years ago, we saw what happens when you underestimate a horse that can control the pace and is the fastest horse on paper when War Emblem went wire-to-wire at 20/1 over a pretty suspect field. Maximum Security certainly has the credentials that he can do the same.
Normally, I always feel that you take the most talented horse in the Derby, pace be damned, because talent, like life, uh, finds a way when it comes to the Derby. As David mentioned, there isn't a Justify or American Pharoah this year. Hell, there isn't even a Nyquist. There's a bunch of honest horses who have mostly run either good or ok races, but nothing that will knock your socks off. Evaluating who has the best opportunity to make their run looks to be the way to play this Derby.
2) When will we see the real Improbable?
That said, there is a very good chance the most talented horse in this race is Improbable, and we just haven't seen it this year. Improbable has run twice this year. His debut in the first division of the Rebel was one of the most criminally awful rides I've ever seen. Unsurprisingly, for his next start in the Arkansas Derby, we had a jockey change. We also had a sloppy track and an equipment change with blinkers on. Improbable never looked right in that Arkansas Derby, running with an odd gait known as "climbing" the whole way and not properly adjusting his gait down the stretch. Despite all of this, he still only finished a length behind Omaha Beach, your Derby favorite on the morning line.
The big question is what caused the odd race - the blinkers or the slop. Improbable is by City Zip out of an A.P. Indy mare - if a horse was ever bred to swim, it would be Improbable. Therefore, part of me believes that it was the blinkers that confused him and made him run in a wonky manner. There's definitely a question regarding whether a son of City Zip can get the Derby distance - City Zip did his best running in races about half the distance of the Derby, and his progeny have mostly proven to be the same - but if you're looking for the horse with the most talent on his day, he may be it.
3) What do you make of the Santa Anita Derby?
The Santa Anita Derby is giving us two of the favorites here in Roadster and Game Winner, but if you watch the race, you might ask why. Visually, both appeared to be staggering down the stretch in a battle of attrition. However, this could be attributed to the overhaul Santa Anita underwent after 22 horses died on the track over the course of the first few months of this year. The surface is now incredibly deep, yielding races where world-class runners appear to be moving in quicksand. If you're willing to assume this race is solid and the form will transfer, both Roadster and Game Winner rate a good shot on Saturday. If not, there's value to be found.
4) How cocky will Mike Smith be on Omaha Beach?
We've seen Mike Smith do some crazy stuff in the Derby, especially when he believes he's on the best horse. Omaha Beach has a habit of making strong middle moves, advancing his position in a portion of the race where everyone is running their fastest. Smith has a habit of letting horses do what they want, but I don't know if that strategy works on a horse like Omaha Beach, who hasn't really created enough separation to "justify" being penciled in to the trifecta. (That pun was not intended, but I'm gonna own it.)
Those are the questions I'm trying to answer right now, as I don't think you can frame up a decent strategy in this Derby without tackling them. Maybe you have some answers. You let me go free form - I'm going to demand in your next post to at least a quick answer on these questions.
I have no idea what to do.
It's an odd feeling to be sitting less than 100 hours from post time with absolutely no agenda. To be fair though, that's how horse players should handicap every race - let the odds dictate your strategy. The Derby is no ordinary race though, so the odds don't matter quite as much. To say they're useless would be folly.
With that said, I'm going to avoid making a pick even now. Instead, I'm going to posit what I feel are the key questions in this race that you need to answer, and answering those will ultimately determine how I feel about the race...
1) What is Maximum Security going to do?
Pace makes the race, and with Maximum Security as the clear pace setter, what he does will lead to a lot of your strategy. There's an interesting twist to Maximum Security, and that twist is that his owners also own one of the favorites, Game Winner. Game Winner is an impeccably bred champion 2yo with the potential to be worth millions. Maximum Security is a homebred of questionable pedigree that owners Gary & Mary West risked to lose for a mere $16,000 in his debut. For Game Winner to have his best chance, he'll need a pace to fire at... a pace that Maximum Security can ensure. If Maximum Security goes nuts and throws out a sub :45 half mile, I think we'll be wanting to structure bets around closers.
That said, Maximum Security is also the only early speed horse left in a Derby with a bunch of stalkers that may not see him as a legitimate threat. 17 years ago, we saw what happens when you underestimate a horse that can control the pace and is the fastest horse on paper when War Emblem went wire-to-wire at 20/1 over a pretty suspect field. Maximum Security certainly has the credentials that he can do the same.
Normally, I always feel that you take the most talented horse in the Derby, pace be damned, because talent, like life, uh, finds a way when it comes to the Derby. As David mentioned, there isn't a Justify or American Pharoah this year. Hell, there isn't even a Nyquist. There's a bunch of honest horses who have mostly run either good or ok races, but nothing that will knock your socks off. Evaluating who has the best opportunity to make their run looks to be the way to play this Derby.
2) When will we see the real Improbable?
That said, there is a very good chance the most talented horse in this race is Improbable, and we just haven't seen it this year. Improbable has run twice this year. His debut in the first division of the Rebel was one of the most criminally awful rides I've ever seen. Unsurprisingly, for his next start in the Arkansas Derby, we had a jockey change. We also had a sloppy track and an equipment change with blinkers on. Improbable never looked right in that Arkansas Derby, running with an odd gait known as "climbing" the whole way and not properly adjusting his gait down the stretch. Despite all of this, he still only finished a length behind Omaha Beach, your Derby favorite on the morning line.
The big question is what caused the odd race - the blinkers or the slop. Improbable is by City Zip out of an A.P. Indy mare - if a horse was ever bred to swim, it would be Improbable. Therefore, part of me believes that it was the blinkers that confused him and made him run in a wonky manner. There's definitely a question regarding whether a son of City Zip can get the Derby distance - City Zip did his best running in races about half the distance of the Derby, and his progeny have mostly proven to be the same - but if you're looking for the horse with the most talent on his day, he may be it.
3) What do you make of the Santa Anita Derby?
The Santa Anita Derby is giving us two of the favorites here in Roadster and Game Winner, but if you watch the race, you might ask why. Visually, both appeared to be staggering down the stretch in a battle of attrition. However, this could be attributed to the overhaul Santa Anita underwent after 22 horses died on the track over the course of the first few months of this year. The surface is now incredibly deep, yielding races where world-class runners appear to be moving in quicksand. If you're willing to assume this race is solid and the form will transfer, both Roadster and Game Winner rate a good shot on Saturday. If not, there's value to be found.
4) How cocky will Mike Smith be on Omaha Beach?
We've seen Mike Smith do some crazy stuff in the Derby, especially when he believes he's on the best horse. Omaha Beach has a habit of making strong middle moves, advancing his position in a portion of the race where everyone is running their fastest. Smith has a habit of letting horses do what they want, but I don't know if that strategy works on a horse like Omaha Beach, who hasn't really created enough separation to "justify" being penciled in to the trifecta. (That pun was not intended, but I'm gonna own it.)
Those are the questions I'm trying to answer right now, as I don't think you can frame up a decent strategy in this Derby without tackling them. Maybe you have some answers. You let me go free form - I'm going to demand in your next post to at least a quick answer on these questions.
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