2019 Derby - A Marvel-ous Affair

…. That was a pretty good burn on Improbable.  Touche.

Despite the late start, we've already done a deep dive into pace, key questions, and... Other things maybe... So now it's time for the quote-en-ing!  After your little crack about me seeing Endgame twice (which is true - the movie is so much damn fun), I'm opting to lean into it and use Marvel Cinematic Universe quotes to pair with each horse.  Fun!  (Is this a bit we shameless steal from Bill Simmons every year?  You betcha!)  As usual, I'll include my fair value odds in parentheses.

"I look around at us and you know what I see?  Losers..... But not today.  Today it's giving us something.  It's giving us a chance." - Star-Lord

To this entire God forsaken field.  By hook or by crook, one of these 20 (or 19 depending on Haikal's status) is going to be crown a Derby champion.  God help us.

"Before we get started, does anyone want to get out?"  - Captain America

To my "very little hope" 200/1 shots War of Will, Gray Magician, Plus Que Parfait, Master Fencer, Country House, and Bodexpress.  I cannot forsee any of these horses hitting the board except maaaaaaybe Country House if the pace is just insane.  As David alluded to though, I don't think that's going to happen with Omaha Beach out.  I'm also throwing my lone 99/1 shot, Cutting Humor, in here as well.

"I don't recall killing your family.  I doubt I'll remember killing you either."  - Ronan The Accuser

I really cannot think of anything interesting to say about Haikal (33/1) or Long Range Toddy (33/1), a couple horses I doubt we'll remember being in this field.

"I can do this all day." - Captain America

I don't know if Win Win Win (33/1) has the talent to win the Derby, but you can bet he'll be advancing at the end of the race. Of all the deep DEEP closers, I think he's the best. He's the type that sneaks into the exacta/trifecta, so don't leave him off your exotics.

"Now, this is important. Once the battery is removed, everything is gonna slam into emergency mode. Once we have it, we gotta move quickly, so you definitely need to get that last. Or we could just get it first and improvise."  - Rocket

I feel like Tax (24/1) had a decent plan and shot until he drew the two hole.  The break is gonna determine if he has a shot.  He'll be a great price, so I think we'll use him a little.

"I'm made of rocks, as you can see, but don't let that intimidate you.  You don't need to be afraid, unless you're made of scissors!  Just a little rock-paper-scissors joke for you!"  - Korg

All we really know about Code of Honor (19/1) is that he can win when he has a crazy pace to fire at.  I can say the same for half the closers in here.  I know you like him, but he doesn't scare me.

"Don't do anything I would do.  And don't do anything I wouldn't do.  There's a little gray area in there.  That's where you operate." - Tony Stark

I'm putting both Spinoff (19/1) and By My Standards (15/1) here, as both look to sit similar trips, both are coming out of the Louisiana Derby, and both should probably figure into our bets somehow, but I haven't figured out yet.

"Just because something works doesn't mean it can't be improved" - Shuri

I do want to like Vekoma (15/1), who looks like he can sit a perfect trip... if it weren't for that insane stride of his down the lane winning the Blue Grass.  Not sure he wants an extra furlong.

"I do what he does, just slower."  - Falcon

I don't see the logic in betting Roadster (9/1) when he looks like a poor man's Game Winner and figures to be similar odds.  Yes, he beat Game Winner last out, but he had a perfect trip while Game Winner opted to go four wide on both turns.

"Dormammu, I've come to bargain" - Dr. Strange

Game Winner (8/1) just can't catch a break, running second in both his preps this year.  First, he loses by a nose to Omaha Beach.  Then he gets caught after Roadster has a perfect trip.  It feels like he should get the W one of these times, but a repeat "close but no cigar" performance would not be shocking.

"On your left." - Captain America

If any horse is gonna close on Saturday, I think it's Tacitus (7/1).  He's had two solid setups to run into for sure.  At this point though, he feels like one of the horses with the least questions, now being the only horse in the race with a two prep wins with one of those coming in the key final round of preps.

Ant-Man: My days of breaking into places and stealing shit are over.  What do you want me to do?
Hank Pym: I want you to break into some place and steal some shit.

Like we've mentioned already, Maximum Security (7/1) may not need to think too hard beyond "just do what you did before and it might work again." Now, he won't get away with a :49 half mile, but does he have the talent to take a 1-1/2 length lead and a :47 half mile to Derby victory?  Against this group, it wouldn't shock me.

"Anybody on our side hiding any shocking and fantastic abilities they'd like to disclose?  I'm open to suggestions."  - Iron Man

Despite your cracks, Improbable (5/1) is the only horse left in this race that could be a special horse.  Both of his 2019 races are just bizarre, and if Omaha Beach wasn't in the Arkansas Derby, he wins that race by six lengths and is your heavy favorite.