Ok, ok, ok, to all of our loyal blog readers (hi mom! jk, my mom doesn't read this crap) we are starting a little later with our Derby discussion than usual this year. Philip, selfishly, became a father a few months back and has less time than the past to spend on writing a blog that two people read. He also had to go see Avengers Endgame like 27 times in theaters on its opening weekend, and between that and the Battle of Winterfell, time has been tight.
But, fear not, we are here to discuss the 2019 Derby despite this myriad of distractions. And, for a change, it's actually a pretty interesting Derby this year! To recap, last year we thought Justify was a lock...he was. Here were my exact words on our Derby blog last year:
Let me make this clear: I'm hammering Justify. It will be the biggest bet I've ever made on a Derby horse (Philip is cringing at these words).
So, that was ok. In 2017, Always Dreaming was one of our two top tier horses along with Irish War Cry...so not bad. But, 2016 we weren't as good, Philip liked Exaggerator who ran second, I liked Shagaf who literally didn't finish...oh well. But, Shagaf's horribleness aside, all those horses were first or second choice that we picked basically. Will this year be different? Will our hero's come up with something other than what literally anyone could come up with? Well....maybe. I'll get this started with my general thoughts on the race...
On the surface, there isn't a horse in this field like Justify. He towered over last year's group. But, it's not exactly like 2017 either where a handful of horses were under 7/1 and then most horses in the field were over 20/1. It feels like this group is similar to 2013 when Orb won as a tepid 5/1 favorite, but there were six runners under 10/1 in the field.
In this year's renewal it SEEMS like Omaha Beach is an obvious pick for favoritism after beating Game Winner in one of the Rebels and beating Improbable in the Arkansas Derby...but, I am still of the opinion that Tacitus is going to take a lot of money after his roughly run win in the Wood Memorial, By My Standards (Louisiana Derby winner) is getting all the AM workout hype, Roadster is undefeated this season and trained by Bob Baffert, and Game Winner is also trained by Baffert and won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Churchill six months ago, his losses this season were by a nose to Omaha Beach and a half length to Roadster...both mentioned already. I could see all six of those runners being in the under 10/1 neighborhood.
The crazy thing is that I didn't even mention Maximum Security, the horse that won the Florida Derby by 3 1/2 lengths and won his other three starts by more than 6 lengths each. I know Philip is chomping at the bit to make cases for this horse. He's going to try and tell us Maximum Security is possibly the most talented runner in the field. He'll whsiper to us sweet nothings about how Maximum Security is going to be on the lead. I'll just say that, right now, I don't love Maximum Security, he feels like a second or third tier runner to me, so I'm going to have to be convinced.
Back to the betting discussion, unlike a lot of recent years, the middle of this field seems to be capable of running with the top group. War of Will got tons of hype before his horrible Louisiana Derby, some will be willing to toss that race and he'll have backers. Long Range Toddy beat Improbable in a Rebel before an Arkansas Derby flop in the slop and could rebound on faster ground. Tax and Haikal were right behind Tacitus in the Wood and both have reasons to improve. Code of Honor won the Fountain of Youth before running third in the Florida Derby when there wasn't much speed to set up his late rally. Vekoma won the Blue Grass, which is kind of ok I guess, I mean it was a bad race, but he won. And, after listing all those horses I haven't even listed either of Todd Pletcher's runners or Win Win Win who I think ran the best race in the Blue Grass.
The point I'm driving at, is this is a race that could really offer value. And, it's really damn tough to pick. Coming up with horses to key our bets around isn't as clear cut as it usually seems to be. There are 13 runners in here with top Beyer Speed Figures falling between 95 and 99. There are two horses (Omaha Beach 101 and Maximum Security 102) with figures slightly above that group.That's 15 runners that have, on their best day, been within a few lengths of one another.
I'll finish this up with where I'm at right now...
The more I look at this race, the more it seems to me that Omaha Beach is the safest horse. I'm not saying he's a star, and it sucks that he'll probably be favored, but with a gun to my head picking one horse to finish in the tri, it's probably him. He has the highest floor in the race, IMO.
I thought the Wood Memorial was the deepest prep, so Tacitus and Tax, even Haikal, should be horses I like..but, right now I'm struggling to really like them. I think I like Game Winner more than Roadster, who just beat him, to me Game Winner just seems like more of a ten furlong Derby horse.
And a final thought: Code of Honor is a really legit contender to win this race. Here's a look at the opening half miles of the six major Derby preps:
Wood Memorial: 46 and 4/5 seconds
Blue Grass: 47 flat
Arkansas Derby: 47 2/5
Louisiana Derby: 47 3/5
Santa Anita Derby: 47 4/5
Florida Derby: 48 4/5
Now, I don't want to pretend that all tracks are equal in regards to fractional times. But, Gulfstream Park is not typically considered a slow track that produces slow times. The 3yo fillies earlier on the card went their opening half mile over a second faster than this Florida Derby half. For the first half mile to be a full second slower than fillies on the same card and a full second slower than any of the other major preps really points to how difficult it would be for a closer to win under those circumstances. Code of Honor was left with a lot of work to do and the pace scenario made that basically impossible.
Most of the horses in this field look like stalkers. There's only a few true closers that will come from way back. For me, that group looks like Haikal, maybe Tacitus, Win Win Win, Country House, and Code of Honor. I think Code of Honor had the most unfavorable pace set-up of that group in his final prep. He seems live to me.
OK, take it away Philip. Talk about the pace, or the preps, or the odds you expect...or whatever, I'm not your boss.
