Look Omaha Beach was going to be a major contender. He was the morning line favorite, the likely post time favorite, and a horse that had the tactical speed to be involved early in the race along with the talent and stamina to be tough to run down late....and now he'll be watching from the sidelines.
This really does change the complexion of the whole race, and it drastically alters my answers to the questions you posed fair brother...
1) What is Maximum Security going to do?
Well, I thought Omaha Beach would put pressure to him 6-8 furlongs in, now, the horse's pressing probably aren't as talented as the horse expected to go. We discussed this a bit earlier tonight IRL, but this scratch moves Maximum Security up the list more than any other horse in the race, IMO. He's now potential lone speed, and the only horse as fast as him on paper has scratched. Lone speed and possibly most talented is a pretty scary combination, especially when he might be 10/1....
2) When will we see the real Improbable?
When he cuts back to 7 furlongs and wins the King's Bishop in a few months? (for the non racing fans, this is a sick burn, trust me).
3) What do you make of the Santa Anita Derby?
Honestly, it's just like all these preps to me. I don't think it was special or terrible. The top two are solid runners, and there wasn't a whole lot behind them. But, there wasn't really a great and deep prep all year. I do think Game Winner is the more talented runner out of this race, remember he was 1 to 2 against Omaha Beach a couple months ago. At that point in time he was everyone's Derby favorite, he's a nose and a half length away from being a 2/1 favorite Saturday.
4) How cocky will Mike Smith be on Omaha Beach?
Well.
OK, now that I've completed my homework assignment and answered all your questions. As the saying goes, pace makes the race. And, the pace in this Derby isn't all that clear cut. Or maybe it is?
I am going on one real assumption here: Maximum Security will be sent for the lead. I think there are legitimately 10 to 12 other runners in this race that want to be close to the pace, one or two of them may decide to go for the lead. But, I think Maximum Security is the only horse in the race that virtually has to send early and try to make the front.
With that assumption made, it seems like there are three real possibilities that exist regarding how the pace of this Derby shapes up:
1) Everyone decides Maximum Security is the pace of the race, and they decide he isn't a superstar and it isn't worth ruining their horse's chances by trying to beat him to the lead....in this scenario Maximum Security gets an easy lead and has a real chance to lead the whole way.
2) A couple of other jockeys/trainers decide they need to gun early, that even if it could backfire, it's their best chance. In this scenario the pace still might not be that fast, and it could work out for the jockeys that try this.
3) Everyone decides Maximum Security is a threat and they can't let him go early, three or four others really gun with him, and the pace gets out of hand.
Honestly, it's hard for me to feel strongly one way or the other on this. But, I actually kind of lean to option 1. The 7 post is ideal for a front runner like Maximum Security. He's also drawn outside of the other horses I consider to be his main pace competition, War of Will, Gray Magician, and Vekoma. I think that leaves Maximum Security with a tactical advantage, along with a talent advantage, over those rivals.
But, while I think Maximum Security is on the lead, what happens behind him is way murkier...here's how I see the field.
Front Runner: Maximum Security
Could Try to Make Lead: War of Will, Gray Magician, Vekoma
Willing to Sit Just off the Leader(s): Tax, By My Standards, Improbable, Game Winner, Roadster, Long Range Toddy, Spinoff, Bodexpress
Midpack or Further Back: Tacitus, Cutting Humor, Code of Honor
Want to Be Way Back: Plus Que Parfait, Haikal, Win Win Win, Master Fencer(?), Country House
So, while I don't think there's a lot of pure speed, it seems like most of the field wants to be close to the early pace.
I think both of us basically have decided that the potential to be lone speed makes Maximum Security a real threat to steal this race. So, I've discussed the case for him, he's talented and could be alone up front. But, who are our other main contenders? I don't want this to come across like he's a horse I consider a lock...I think this is a year where you have to spread out a bit and not get completely married to one runner. Right?
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