Going to keep this pretty brief since our next couple posts will be quite long...
As far as the drop off goes, yes, this year there seems to be a way bigger drop-off than usual between the top group and that next group, and the top group seems deeper than it normally is.
Of the horses outside that top nine or so...and, I think we have a lot more to talk about where those horses fall in our plans...the other 11 entrants are going to be interesting to figure out.
Instead of going through them all, I'll just touch on two of them that I think could be intriguing...
OCHO OCHO OCHO - This horse is super stupid. His two 3YO starts have earned him speed figures that would probably not even make him a favorite in an allowance on the Derby undercard...but, has he had much of a shot in either start this year? He's a son of Street Sense out of a Horse Chestnut mare, that's two serious route influences. He was precocious enough to be an undefeated 2YO. He ran awful in the San Felipe and a dull third in the Blue Grass, but I don't think he got the trip he really wanted there. With pace targets to sit behind he could move forward in his third start at 3, and that could leave him in the 3rd and 4th place discussion.
BOLO - Ran a really solid race in the San Felipe and was a good third behind Dortmund that day. He regressed a little speed figure wise in the Santa Anita Derby, but he seems to have some ability and does have that one fast speed figure. Again, I'd be really surprised if he could win, but hitting the board is possible.
Of the others, KEEN ICE, WAR STORY, and FAR RIGHT all fit the profile of deep closer that seems too slow. But, it seems like every year a horse like that runs a big race and gets in the money. So, again, we could probably leave these in the third or fourth spot.
But, right now, eight days out and with just my most general handicapping finished, I would actually be surprised if the winner of this race isn't MATERIALITY, DORTMUND, or AMERICAN PHAROAH.
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