Friday, May 6, 2016

Derby 2016 - Part 16 (David) - It's Always Sunny In The Derby

Ok, Philip did a pretty good job on these Silicon Valley quotes...so now it's time for my entry in:

The Great Crone Brothers Derby Horse Pop Culture Reference Comparison Game

That's a working title....but it's pretty God damn good, huh? Basically, this works as follows: I pick a quote that I think fits a horse and give a quick explanation on why it makes sense it my twisted brain. This year, I've chosen to use quotes from It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia to describe the runners in the Derby field, without further ado, here they are you jabroni's....


Mac: Don't you get it dude? They'll always be "At Capacity" for us.
Charlie: I don't get it at all, is that what he said?
Mac: Don't you get it? We got big timed dude. He called us lower class!

Not everyone can get into the Derby field. Some of them are being Big Timed and being told the Derby is "At Capacity." This year that distinction falls to LAOBAN and CHERRY WINE who find themselves on the Also Eligible list and will only get in the race if another horse scratches.


Dennis: Frank don't be a moron! You start cutting bonuses and you'll lose your top guys. You gotta separate the wheat from the chaff somehow.
Mac: Yeah, and these guys are all chaff!

Separating the wheat from the chaff is hard in a race that seems so full of chaff...I mean, unless your Mac who thinks the chaff is what you want to be...to be clear, the chaff is the portion of the field that is unusable, and in this field that designation goes to OSCAR NOMINATED and TOM'S READY. I can make some case for virtually every other horse in the field to potentially at least have a reason to hit the board. I can find no reason at all to suggest OSCAR NOMINATED or TOM'S READY can get a piece.


Dennis: Let me explain to you guys a little something about how class works.You're born into class, it's about pedigree, it's about upbringing, it has nothing to do with your present circumstances.

LANI and TROJAN NATION are two of the best bred runners in the Derby field. Sired by Tapit and Street Cry respectively, they have the pedigree and upbringing to be truly high class. However, their present circumstances leave much to be desired...


Dennis: As I tried to explain before, you cannot get honey from a hornet's nest.
Charlie: I just don't think there's any science to support that, buddy.

GUN RUNNER and BRODY'S CAUSE each won major Derby preps, the Louisiana Derby and Blue Grass Stakes respectively. So, a lot of people think they're legit contenders. Just like they seem kind of legit, hornet seem kind of like bees...but, they aren't going to be making any honey on Saturday.


Dennis: Open a leather shop in Arizona? Are you serious? There are far too many leather shops in Arizona as it is! Why, you would be out of business in a week's time!

There are too many leather shops in Arizona, and there are too many dead closers in this freaking Derby field. I don't like any of them, because there is no real valid way to distinguish between them. They all look exactly the same to me. So, SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS, CREATOR, WHITMORE, and MY MAN SAM are all horses I want to play against.


Charlie: In Scooby Doo secret tunnels are always behind shelves, there's gotta be one.
Dennis: Could we not base our decisions on what does or does not happen in episodes of Scooby Doo!?

Philip I feel like you're basing your liking DANZING CANDY on what happens in 8 horse maiden fields. There I love to bet cheapish speed horses. In the Derby I do not.


Mac: We're not men who get a lot of opportunities. Every one we've had, we've squandered,

It is highly unusual for a maiden, a horse that's never won a race, to make it into the Derby field, but this year TROJAN NATION has done just that. Every chance he's had so far he has squandered, and now he has another chance, and he has a very high probability of squandering this one as well.


Charlie: Pears weird me out, dude. Where do you start with a pear? The bottom? The top?

The two horses in this field I have the absolute worst reads on are MO TOM and MAJESTO. I don't know what to make of them. One minute I think they're complete tosses, the next I'm trying to talk myself into thinking they're usable. At the end of the day, I just don't know what to do with them.


Dennis: I don't think he has a point. I'm a stallion.
Mac: Oh, uh, ooohhh, this is messy. Look buddy, 2003 Dennis was a Grade A prime beefcake, no one is disputing that, but 2008 Dennis is in decline...

No one is disputing that NYQUIST was the best two-year-old colt in the country last year. But, three-year-old NYQUIST seems to be in decline to me. The distance isn't ideal, he doesn't seem to be improving. Let's beat a Derby favorite for a change.


Mac: I'm gonna go out there and take a wicked slap shot, ya know, really make a name for myself. Otherwise, I go out there, I look like a jabroni.

OUTWORK isn't going to be some jabroni and let some other horse beat him early. He's gonna go out there and take a wicked slap shot, or in racing terms, be a part of the pace. He just needs to hope it works out better for him than it did for Mac.


Charlie: I'm getting sick of this shit! I really am. You keep treating me like a dumb-dumb and a grunt. I have potential ya know. I could go places. I could do things. Who knows? I might even rule the world some day.

I think MOR SPIRIT and DESTIN seem to be trending towards being two horses that are overlooked a bit, but have as good a chance as any to win on Saturday. They're not exactly longshots, but they should both be top four choices, and I'm not sure either will be in the betting public's top 6.


Dennis: I swallowed some apple seeds today.
Mac: Did you make yourself throw up?
Dennis: I tried...but, I couldn't.
Mac: Smoke some cigarettes. The smoke will suffocate the bacteria in your stomach.

This comparison is a bit of a stretch, but I wasn't not going to use this quote. MOHAYMEN ran bad in the Florida Derby, it was like he had a belly full of toxic apple seeds or something. But, he was five for five heading to that race, and I think in a field this bad, I'm willing to forgive that effort if the price is ok.


Mac: Maybe this whole thing isn't about meeting girls. Maybe it's about having an adventure, you know, an open ocean adventure. Take a look at this guy. How'd he lose that hand? I betcha it was some kind of crazy adventure, right? Let's find out...Hey bro, how'd you lose that hand?
Guy: Diabetes
Dennis: Oh....
Mac: Uh, that's not much of an adventure is it? Kind of tragic actually....

I really struggled to find a quote I thought fit my feelings on EXAGGERATOR. On one hand, I think he has a shot versus this group, on another I think he's overrated off a dream trip over a surface he loved in the Santa Anita Derby. I think you look at his speed figure and think, "Wow, this horse must be amazing!", but the real story is probably more likely that it was just a dream set-up. I think the quote works, because the the story you expect isn't really the story you get.


Mac: I'm not gonna stand here and present some egghead, scientific argument based on fact. I'm just a regular dude. I like to drink beer. I love my family. Rock, flag, and eagle, right Charlie?
Charlie: He's got a point.

SHAGAF is still one of my top picks. I've already made the arguments, so I'm not going to here.

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