So it sounds like you think the Oaks card could produce some weirdness late in the card but not sure where it's coming from? Hmmm... I think I agree, something stupid could happen - especially in the Oaks itself - but this isn't a card that's really screaming at me to bet it. Really, let's just be careful not to go nuts, especially if the Saturday card looks good. Compared to our usual Oaks betting goes, I think we back off this one a little bit save a bit of a shot at the late pick 4 & maaaaaybe a small pick 5 singling Carina Mia.
Quick hits on the five other stakes races...
La Troienne - I don't buy Curlina as a real two turn horse and think Sheer Drama crushes this field; could be some value underneath.
Eight Belles - Yeah, Carina Mia all day.
Turf Sprint - Always a stupid race, but I say go deep in a pick 4 and take anything that looks like it can get the lead early. Churchill turf sprints are generally dominated by speed. Latent Revenge is a super dumb one that could forget to stop on the lead at 20/1.
Alysheba - If Noble Bird loves Churchill as much as he appeared to last year, he should beat these. I wouldn't sleep on Majestic Affair, a Chad Brown improving four year-old that is 2-for-2 going two turns.
Edgewood - It's a mess if you don't like Catch a Glimpse. Luckily, she should air.
Ok, now the Oaks itself. It's a little easier to talk about some of these together, but I'll get the easy ones out of the way first.
Instant tosses - Dream Dance, Mo d'Amour, Venus Valentine, Taxable
Pretty easy tosses after those - Terra Promessa, Mokat, Paola Queen
Now, the others I'm not a big fan of....
Weep No More - I really just don't trust that race was as fast as the Beyers say, and Weep was running down a horse who has done her best running at one turn and one off a six month layoff. Pass.
Cathryn Sophia - Like I said above, she looks like a one turn horse to me. Just not a lot of value here.
Land Over Sea - She'll take money just for constantly finishing second to Songbird, but that Cali group was sooooooo bad. Her FG Oaks win last out was over nothing. Not a fan.
Lewis Bay/Royal Obsession - I wanted to like Lewis Bay, but I'm not sure why. This isn't a "me" horse. She won the Demoiselle last year, but it was pretty slow. Then she ran second to Cathryn Sophia by seven lengths bc, well, something had to run 2nd. And the Gazelle was a good effort, but I really don't think much of Royal Obsession, who was second there. RO was handily beaten by Venus Valentine prior to the Gazelle. Venus was an instant toss for me, so that's not good. Just not sure there's a lot of talent here.
So that leaves me with Rachel Valentina & Go Maggie Go. Rachel should be favored and ran a good race in the Ashland, outdueling Cathryn Sophia before being run down by Weep No More. But I have questions about that race in general and the price isn't going to be great on Rachel. So why not Go Maggie Go? She's 2-for-2 and ran just as fast as anything else in the GP Oaks. There's also the possibility her debut race is much better than it looks on paper. Second place runner there Conquest Serenade came back to win her 2nd start at Keeneland, running 14 Beyer points faster than in that race. She runs in the 2nd race on the Oaks undercard in a solid allowance race, so we'll see if she flatters Maggie there. Either way, at 12/1 in a race that's pretty underwhelming if you don't buy the three from Keeneland... I'll take a flyer on that.
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