Well, it actually sounds like we're pretty much on the same page for much of the Oaks card. That's either a really good sign or a really bad sign...
Really, the more I look at the Oaks, the more I think it could end up being mayhem. If Rachel's Valentina take a big step forward in her second three-year-old start, she will probably win. If she doesn't, something crazy could happen. There's a lot of speed in here, and if the race falls apart some would it be that crazy to see Mokat or Royal Obsession get first run on the leaders and hang on? I'd love to be alive to a bunch here in the pick 5, and think we actually like some horses in the pick 5 races so maybe that's an actual possibility.
Shifting gears back to the Derby...post positions were drawn and the whole card is out now. Some quick thoughts:
3rd Race - The Derby Day Maiden Special Weight is one of my favorite races of the year. It gave us Masochistic before. This year I don't see any roided up freaks like him, but I do see a very interesting runner that some people might miss.....the 10 horse, Jimbo Fallon, has only made one start and it came one year ago at Santa Anita. He hasn't run since and Baffert has what looks to be a second tier jockey on him while Baffert's other runner in the race, Jazzy Times, has top jockey Javier Castellano aboard. But, Jimbo is the horse that has been OUTWORKING Derby horse Mor Spirit for the last two weeks. Obviously, the afternoon is different than the AM, but this could end up being a very interesting betting race.
5th Race - I've only glanced at this race so far, but Salengo at 20/1 on the morning line seems absurd. He won his debut by 6 beating What's Your Thesis who was VERY impressive at Churchill yesterday. Last time out he ran into freakish sprinter Limousine Liberal. The distance is a question mark, but if he's close to 20/1 it's an absurd overlay.
6th Race (The Distaff Turf Mile) - Tepin is probably a lock, but she's fun to watch at least I guess. Sucks betting wise though.
7th Race (The Churchill Downs) - I've always hated Kobe's Back. Not really sold on Calculator or Salutos Amigos being top class sprinters either. Disliking those leaves you with some enticing prices on others. If Speighster can come off the lay-off in top form I don't know if any sprinter in America can beat him.
8th Race (The Humana Distaff) - Tons of speed in here. I think Taris prefers two turns. Not a bad race, but I don't love anything yet.
11th Race (The Turf Classic) - Bolo REALLY intrigues me at first blush. The two favorites in here, Big Blue Kitten and Slumber, are both 8 years old, and they both made their last starts 6 months ago in the Breeders' Cup. They're both really solid, but if they've lost a half step off the shelf and at 8 it makes this a race that could produce a price. There's a number of intriguing price plays here.
The Derby - Been discussing it for days, the post draw happened yesterday. I don't think anything really occurred that changed my thoughts much. Danzing Candy drawing the 20 probably ensured a somewhat solid pace as he'll have to hustle some to try and clear everything and get closer to the rail. We'll finish Derby thoughts soon I'm sure, right brother?
No comments:
Post a Comment