Derby 2016 Discussion - Phil - Part 7 - Freaking Shagaf?!

Oh you would like to lighten things up, but now I have to actually think about Shagaf first.  Freaking crappy ass Shagaf.  DRF has Shagaf listed 18th out of 20 on their watch, and that's... about right.  You can't just toss the Wood Memorial - where he ran 5th with an 87 Beyer, a speed figure that won't even be good enough to win the allowance race carded as the final race by the way - because it was 1) as fast as his "impressive" Gotham win, and 2) he's bred up-and-down to LOVE a sloppy track.  I won't dive into the details of pedigree analysis for the sake of boring people even more then they are already bored, but we both know he has a pedigree to be at least as good in the mud as on a fast track.  Really, I think he's a one turn horse and his connections just haven't admitted it to themselves yet.  I only had one thought when I read your Shagaf take...

Quick hits on some of the others you mentioned...

Danzing Candy - Agreed
Gun Runner - Agreed
Nyquist - Perfect summation of his chances if you ask me
Mohaymen - Mostly agreed; I'm not sure he really does have "potential" though.

Now, let's talk about Mor Spirit a little bit.  Partially, I agree.  I can't stand this horse.  But he at least runs ok every race.  Couldn't he be like Giacomo in that he was knocking on the door for a while, has as much change as any of these horses, and you just know you're going to get a decent race out of him?  I don't know... I struggle to just toss him on the crap pile yet.

And I'll admit that I think you're not wrong about Exaggerator, but he did run a 103 Beyer in the Santa Anita Derby, which is two points faster than Destin in the Tampa Bay Derby and six points faster than anything else.  Six Beyer points is about three lengths in the Derby... which can be the difference between winning and not hitting the board.  They may have been stumbling home too, but on paper, it's tough to deny that anything else has run close to what he's done at two turns.