Ok, the "Mad" thing was cute, but I'm done with it. Much like how a child is done with Christmas after that joke... but not quite as done with it as Phoebe Cates in Gremlins.
Tackling your odds predictions one by one....
Nyquist - Man, I get the resume reasons for him to be that slow, but I just can't see people being that dumb. They're dumb enough to make him favored, but it's really tough for a horse to go off under 3/1 unless they're a bonafide freak like Big Brown or Pharoah. Too many people bet too many horses in the Derby for a horse with all the questions Nyquist has to go off as short as you're saying.
Exaggerator - I think you're right that he's the clear 2nd choice, maybe even vying for favoritism if enough people see through the Nyquist smokescreen. Now, there's the obvious reason why Nyquist should be favored over Exaggerator... Nyquist has beaten Exaggerator three times and many people think Exaggerator is better on a sloppy track, given how he crushed the Santa Anita Derby field in the slop. It's looking like we'll have a fast track come Saturday, so Exaggerator loses his biggest advantage. However, I'd argue that Exaggerator had some pretty rough trips thus far. He was bothered by Nyquist TWICE in the stretch in separate races - The BC Juvenile and San Vicente. And let's not forget his suicidal middle move in the San Felipe. A horse can't exert that kind of energy mid-race and expect it to work out. The horse has really only had one race that he got to really run his race, and it was the Santa Anita Derby. He just sweeps into the picture and GOODBYE! No other horse in this Derby has proven to have this race in them. And it's hard to watch that race and not think that there's a possibility he's just getting way better. And you compare that to how Nyquist stumbled home in the Florida Derby, and it's no wonder people don't buy your 2/1 on him.
3rd choice - Yeah, that could be anything at this point. Part of me thinks it has to be Destin b/c people just have to wise up eventually. In reality, I think it ends up being Mohaymen. He was the Derby favorite until no showing the Florida Derby. Had Mohaymen just run as well in the FL Derby as he had in his previous two races, he wins by a half length and is your Derby favorite. I could see people talking themselves into Creator as an improving prospect, even though his Arkansas Derby win felt to me more like a fantastic ride by Ricardo Santana than anything else. (I have to admit, I like Suddenbreakingnews more and more out of that group of Arkansas horses.) Overall, I think your more right than wrong that we could just see everything at double digit odds with bettors turning it into a Nyquist vs Exaggerator match race... even though it won't be that shocking if neither hits the board.
I'm curious to see what crazy morning line Battaglia comes up with here. It's one of the toughest years to peg down odds. Now, all that being said, once again, something plausible according to the odds is bound to hit the board. I could be convinced Exaggerator is that horse. Same goes for Destin. Anything else? I'm struggling to find.
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