Part 4 (David) - Why Mad is the Madness Mad Mad

Am I doing the whole follow the madness themed title thing right? It feels pretty good.

So, in these first few posts we're basically lamenting the group of runners we'll be choosing from next weekend. But, one thing I'm becoming very intrigued by is what the odds are going to look like in this race. Right now, I'm not talking value line or what horses odds SHOULD be, I'm talking about what the odds are going to look like. Some thoughts I have on this:

1. Nyquist will be 5/2 or shorter. Honestly, I think he'll be 2/1 vs this field. It seems like most people I talk to aren't in agreement with me on this. But, Nyquist is the first horse since freaking Seattle Slew in 1977 to enter the Derby undefeated at 3 after being an undefeated champion at 2 as well. I just don't see many other horses people can get excited over in this field. Plus, most people realize there doesn't seem to be a lot of speed in this field, and Nyquist has the speed to be very close to the pace next Saturday. This all adds up to strong favoritism in my mind.

2. Exaggerator will be a strong second choice. I think it will be similar to last year when Pharoah was 5/2 and Dortmund was 4/1. If anything I think Nyquist will be just under Pharoah's odds and that Nyquist will be a little higher than Dortmund was (9/2 or 5/1).

3. I have absolutely no idea who will be third choice. Honestly, when I say I have no idea I'm being absolutely serious. This isn't just some hilarious joke like when you tell your kid you left the fire going on Christmas Eve and burned Santa Claus alive. I could absolutely see any of these horses ending up third choice:

Mor Spirit

Mohaymen

Destin

Whitmore

Gun Runner

Outwork

Brody's Cause

Creator

Mo Tom

You can make legitimate cases for any of them being third choice I think. Will one of these horses clearly emerge from this group as a clear third choice? Can all nine of them end up between 10/1 and 20/1?

4. Everything else will be 20/1+ and Oscar Nominated will take way more money than he should.....because he should take no money at all.

What do you think? In agreement with the Nyquist & Exaggerator odds guesses? Who do you think ends up third choice? Is it crazy to think the bad trips everyone saw on Mo Tom or Victor Espinoza on Whitmore ends up the deciding factor? We have a real chance at seeing a horse be third choice in the Derby with an 88 Beyer as their career high. This is like that year when Anthony Bennett was the number 1 pick.