First, I love that you think Exaggerator has only had one chance to run his race and THAT'S why he ran big in the Santa Anita Derby...In the words of our insane father: That race fell apart like a soup sandwich. They went the final quarter mile in 26 and 1/5 seconds....walking home. How much of his visually impressive move was due to the others stumbling through the mud? Also, at this point, have they decided he is at his best as a one run closer? If that's the case he will be back there with Mo Tom, Creator, Suddenbreakingnews, Whitmore, My Man Sam, Brody's Cause, and Trojan Nation trying to weave through a big field. Do you really want to key a one run closer in a race like this?
Exaggerator might be able to be keyed I guess...but if we do key him it will basically be due to a lack of options. Really, I don't want to really key around any of those one run closers, because you just don't know which ones will get miserable trips. A few of them will have nightmare trips and it's guesswork to figure out which ones.
Here's some of the others I don't like right now:
Mor Spirit looks too much like a plodder to me, he hasn't really made an impressive move as those Santa Anita preps fell apart, he just kind of grinds around the track. I don't think those horses win Derbies. Although, again, this isn't a typical Derby in a lot of ways.
Danzing Candy just looks like he's hit his distance limit. Twirling Candy out of a Songandaprayer mare doesn't seem like a Derby pedigree, and the way he stopped in the Santa Anita Derby wasn't inspiring. We'll leave him in a little since we never toss speed, but I can't love him.
Gun Runner just doesn't impress me. He was all over the place weaving in and out down the stretch in the Louisiana Derby and switched to the wrong lead during the stretch as well. I think there are others with more upside.
Nyquist we've covered quite a bit. The price will be too low and he has too many knocks. The lack of much speed in there makes him a threat to hit the board and he COULD win, but he should be 10/1 - 15/1 in my opinion.
So....the horses I feel like I could maybe end up liking are:
Mohaymen - As you've already pointed out, heading into the Florida Derby many people thought he was a stand-out favorite for this race. But, he just didn't look good there at all. He beat six horse fields in the Holy Bull and the Fountain of Youth...and he may be third choice. He's got potential, but there's probably better value elsewhere.
Destin - We both like him some, you maybe do more than me at this point. Obviously, there's plenty to like. Pletcher and Castellano. Won his two preps. One of the few stalkers in the race that figures to get a great trip. But, I am worried about the eight week lay-off. Can he run back to those last couple, or might he regress a bit?
Shagaf - This horse is basically Alpha version 2.0 for me, except he might be worse. Of course, Alpha was a horse I liked in the Derby in 2012. He was also on the slowish side and had also just lost the Wood Memorial, and he was also owned by the Maktoum family. Oh, and they're both by Bernardini....so, yeah, pretty damn similar. Alpha ran 12th.........so it's obvious why I'm ready to go back to that well! This horse is going to be a huge price, and I think he has as much upside as anything in the field. He was very impressive in his first two starts and then won the Gotham on the outside on a day when EVERYTHING won on the rail. His Wood is a complete toss in the mud. Plus he should have enough tactical speed to be sitting somewhat close early.
There's a lot of horses we haven't mentioned much, but I think we've covered out basic thoughts one week out. The next few days not a lot will happen, so maybe it's time to lighten things up and try to make this thing a little bit interesting?
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