2016 Derby Discussion

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2016 Derby/Oaks Betting Pool

And now, our thread...
The "Way Too Early" Pre-Postposition Draw Banter That Probably Means Nothing


Part 1 - Phil - The Overview
Part 2 - David - Embrace the Madness
Part 3 - Phil - How Mad is the Madness?
Part 4 - David - Why Mad is the Madness Mad Mad
Part 5 - Phil - Odds And Exaggerator
Part 6 - David - One Week Out Thoughts
Part 7 - Phil - Freaking Shagaf?!
Part 8 - David - Shagaf The Chain!
Part 9 - Phil - History Repeats Itself
Part 10 - David - How Bad Is Cheap Speed In The Derby?
Part 11 - Phil - Who I Actually Like
Part 14 - David - The Derby Card is Posted


Oaks Talk

Part 12 - David - Oaks You Glad I Didn't Say Shagaf?
Part 13 - Phil - Let's Be Careful Out There



Derby Field Comprehesive Analysis With Stupid TV Quotes


Part 15 - Phil - Two Minutes in the Valley
Part 16 - David - It's Always Sunny In The Derby



Final Thoughts

Coming soon!

Derby 2016 - Part 16 (David) - It's Always Sunny In The Derby

Ok, Philip did a pretty good job on these Silicon Valley quotes...so now it's time for my entry in:

The Great Crone Brothers Derby Horse Pop Culture Reference Comparison Game

That's a working title....but it's pretty God damn good, huh? Basically, this works as follows: I pick a quote that I think fits a horse and give a quick explanation on why it makes sense it my twisted brain. This year, I've chosen to use quotes from It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia to describe the runners in the Derby field, without further ado, here they are you jabroni's....

Mac: Don't you get it dude? They'll always be "At Capacity" for us.

Charlie: I don't get it at all, is that what he said?

Mac: Don't you get it? We got big timed dude. He called us lower class!

Not everyone can get into the Derby field. Some of them are being Big Timed and being told the Derby is "At Capacity." This year that distinction falls to LAOBAN and CHERRY WINE who find themselves on the Also Eligible list and will only get in the race if another horse scratches.

Dennis: Frank don't be a moron! You start cutting bonuses and you'll lose your top guys. You gotta separate the wheat from the chaff somehow.

Mac: Yeah, and these guys are all chaff!

Separating the wheat from the chaff is hard in a race that seems so full of chaff...I mean, unless your Mac who thinks the chaff is what you want to be...to be clear, the chaff is the portion of the field that is unusable, and in this field that designation goes to OSCAR NOMINATED and TOM'S READY. I can make some case for virtually every other horse in the field to potentially at least have a reason to hit the board. I can find no reason at all to suggest OSCAR NOMINATED or TOM'S READY can get a piece.

Dennis: Let me explain to you guys a little something about how class works.You're born into class, it's about pedigree, it's about upbringing, it has nothing to do with your present circumstances.

LANI and TROJAN NATION are two of the best bred runners in the Derby field. Sired by Tapit and Street Cry respectively, they have the pedigree and upbringing to be truly high class. However, their present circumstances leave much to be desired...

Dennis: As I tried to explain before, you cannot get honey from a hornet's nest.
Charlie: I just don't think there's any science to support that, buddy.

GUN RUNNER and BRODY'S CAUSE each won major Derby preps, the Louisiana Derby and Blue Grass Stakes respectively. So, a lot of people think they're legit contenders. Just like they seem kind of legit, hornet seem kind of like bees...but, they aren't going to be making any honey on Saturday.

Dennis: Open a leather shop in Arizona? Are you serious? There are far too many leather shops in Arizona as it is! Why, you would be out of business in a week's time!

There are too many leather shops in Arizona, and there are too many dead closers in this freaking Derby field. I don't like any of them, because there is no real valid way to distinguish between them. They all look exactly the same to me. So, SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS, CREATOR, WHITMORE, and MY MAN SAM are all horses I want to play against.


Charlie: In Scooby Doo secret tunnels are always behind shelves, there's gotta be one.
Dennis: Could we not base our decisions on what does or does not happen in episodes of Scooby Doo!?

Philip I feel like you're basing your liking DANZING CANDY on what happens in 8 horse maiden fields. There I love to bet cheapish speed horses. In the Derby I do not.

Mac: We're not men who get a lot of opportunities. Every one we've had, we've squandered,

It is highly unusual for a maiden, a horse that's never won a race, to make it into the Derby field, but this year TROJAN NATION has done just that. Every chance he's had so far he has squandered, and now he has another chance, and he has a very high probability of squandering this one as well.

Charlie: Pears weird me out, dude. Where do you start with a pear? The bottom? The top?

The two horses in this field I have the absolute worst reads on are MO TOM and MAJESTO. I don't know what to make of them. One minute I think they're complete tosses, the next I'm trying to talk myself into thinking they're usable. At the end of the day, I just don't know what to do with them.


Dennis: I don't think he has a point. I'm a stallion.
Mac: Oh, uh, ooohhh, this is messy. Look buddy, 2003 Dennis was a Grade A prime beefcake, no one is disputing that, but 2008 Dennis is in decline...

No one is disputing that NYQUIST was the best two-year-old colt in the country last year. But, three-year-old NYQUIST seems to be in decline to me. The distance isn't ideal, he doesn't seem to be improving. Let's beat a Derby favorite for a change.


Mac: I'm gonna go out there and take a wicked slap shot, ya know, really make a name for myself. Otherwise, I go out there, I look like a jabroni.

OUTWORK isn't going to be some jabroni and let some other horse beat him early. He's gonna go out there and take a wicked slap shot, or in racing terms, be a part of the pace. He just needs to hope it works out better for him than it did for Mac.


Charlie: I'm getting sick of this shit! I really am. You keep treating me like a dumb-dumb and a grunt. I have potential ya know. I could go places. I could do things. Who knows? I might even rule the world some day.

I think MOR SPIRIT and DESTIN seem to be trending towards being two horses that are overlooked a bit, but have as good a chance as any to win on Saturday. They're not exactly longshots, but they should both be top four choices, and I'm not sure either will be in the betting public's top 6.


Dennis: I swallowed some apple seeds today.
Mac: Did you make yourself throw up?
Dennis: I tried...but, I couldn't.
Mac: Smoke some cigarettes. The smoke will suffocate the bacteria in your stomach.

This comparison is a bit of a stretch, but I wasn't not going to use this quote. MOHAYMEN ran bad in the Florida Derby, it was like he had a belly full of toxic apple seeds or something. But, he was five for five heading to that race, and I think in a field this bad, I'm willing to forgive that effort if the price is ok.


Mac: Maybe this whole thing isn't about meeting girls. Maybe it's about having an adventure, you know, an open ocean adventure. Take a look at this guy. How'd he lose that hand? I betcha it was some kind of crazy adventure, right? Let's find out...Hey bro, how'd you lose that hand?
Guy: Diabetes
Dennis: Oh....
Mac: Uh, that's not much of an adventure is it? Kind of tragic actually....

I really struggled to find a quote I thought fit my feelings on EXAGGERATOR. On one hand, I think he has a shot versus this group, on another I think he's overrated off a dream trip over a surface he loved in the Santa Anita Derby. I think you look at his speed figure and think, "Wow, this horse must be amazing!", but the real story is probably more likely that it was just a dream set-up. I think the quote works, because the the story you expect isn't really the story you get.


Mac: I'm not gonna stand here and present some egghead, scientific argument based on fact. I'm just a regular dude. I like to drink beer. I love my family. Rock, flag, and eagle, right Charlie?
Charlie: He's got a point.

SHAGAF is still one of my top picks. I've already made the arguments, so I'm not going to here.

Derby 2016 Discussion - Part 15 - Phil - Two Minutes in the Valley

Just to quickly hit on your thoughts on the card… We agree too much on the stakes races.  This is never good.  For the Humana Distaff, we’ll end up talking ourselves into Wavell Avenue, which is likely the correct move.  CD Handicap I agree there too, but Holy Boss could steal it on the lead.  And yes, the Turf Classic looks like the exact type of race where we go all out against the two favorites b/c they have a ton of legitimate questions, and then one of them wins.  Bolo was the one I was looking at as well – 1-1/8 miles hits him right in the head.

Ok, now the Derby itself.  The main event.  The post you all really came to read.  As usual, we’ll steal liberally from Bill Simmons and each compare the field to quotes or characters from a popular TV show.  I’ve stared at the race probably longer than I needed to, and my witty weapon of choice this year involves these guys….

Also, for each horse, I’ll include in parentheses what I think are the fair odds for each horse.  In effect, those are the odds I think the horse should be in.  Ok, let’s get to it!

Richard: Since when do we have an intern program?

Erlich: We don’t.  And when Keith finds that out, it’s going to be a very valuable business lesson to him.

For Laoban (999,999/1) & Cherry Wine (999,999/1), who are stuck on the also eligible list. Guys, no horse draws in off the also eligible list.  Just pack it up and head to Baltimore for the Preakness now and save yourself the extra van ride.

Richard: Am I not dressed formally enough?  Should I zip up the hoodie before the meeting?

For Trojan Nation (199/1), Oscar Nominated (199/1), Lani (199/1), & Majesto (199/1).  You all do not belong, and we knew it the moment we laid eyes on you.  There’s the door.  Good luck running through it in under 2 minutes 10 seconds.

Jared: If I use you as references, can I count on you to say nice things about me?  Be honest.

Guilfoyle: Do you want me to be honest or nice?

For Tom’s Ready (99/1), who I really want to just throw on the trashpile.  However, he’s trained by Dallas Stewart, who has an uncanny ability to have bad closers run 2^nd in the Derby.  Tom’s Ready has run 9 times – 1 win, 4 second place finishes.  It’s almost destiny.

Erlich: Richard, I know that you look at me and see a guy who has it all figured out.

Erlich does not have it all figured out, and neither does Brody’s Cause (99/1).  Sure he won the Blue Grass, but I remain unimpressed by his lack of talent.

Guilfoyle: He’s not gonna do shit.  He’s a coder.  By definition, we’re all pussies.

For both Mo Tom (99/1) and Whitmore (49/1), both closers on the slow-ish side that look like they could take some money just b/c people aren’t totally sure who to bet.  I don’t see it ending well for either of them.

Attorney: Do you have any skill at all, other that magically failing your way to the top?

Big Head: I have a boat.

For Gun Runner (49/1), who is 2-for-2 in Louisiana and somehow ended the prep season earning more Derby qualifying points than any other horse.  He’s just slow though.  His top Beyer is a 91, slower than even Trojan Nation’s top.  He’s had a far better prep season than he’s ever deserved, and I don’t see the magic continuing.

Erlich: Ask me what 9 times F is.  It’s Fleventy-Five.

For Shagaf (33/1), but really more for David thinking he’s answered the big question of who to bet in the Derby with his answer being this horse.  It’s pretty much nonsense.

Erlich: What?  Revenue?  No, no, no, no, no.  No.  If you show revenue, people will ask “How much?”  But if you have no revenue, you can say you’re pre-revenue.  You’re a pure potential play.  It’s not about how much you earn, it’s about what you’re worth.  And who’s worth the most?  Companies that lose money.  Pinterest, Snapchat… No revenue.  Amazon has lost money every f**king quarter for the last 20 f**king years, and that Bezos mother**ker is the king.

For Creator (19/1), who was way more interesting until he actually got a good ride from Ricardo Santana and won the Arkansas Derby with a solid but not great 96 Beyer.  I feel like I know what his ceiling is now, and it isn’t enough to win the Derby.

Richard: I always knew I was missing something, and then when someone explained the concept of “game,” I remember very distinctly thinking “That’s what I don’t have.”

For My Man Sam (19/1), who I do kind of like, but I can’t totally explain why I can’t get on board him even finishing in the top half of this group.  He ran a sneaky good race two back in an allowance field against eventual Wood Memorial 2^nd choice Matt King Coal when he had no pace to run at.  Then he ran a really good 2^nd in the Blue Grass, probably running better than Brody’s Cause.  But he just doesn’t quite look fast enough, and that big number he ran in the allowance two back was in no way validated by his or Matt King Coal’s next starts.

Erlich: You just brought piss to a shit fight!

The greatest scene ever committed to television is for Mor Spirit (19/1).  I think he’s ok, but I really have trouble seeing how this ends well for him.  He feels like the type of horse we use more heavily than we should b/c he feels like a “safe” play.  Has one of those really ever worked out?  You’re really only betting him off his solid San Felipe effort, which was just a bizarre race given how Exaggerator rushed up early and Danzing Candy just somehow ran ‘em off their feet.  We’ll probably use him, but I don’t feel great about it.

Gavin: F**k!

Audious: Invalid Command.

Gavin: F**k!

For Suddenbreakingnews (19/1), who I think has some talent.  However, you can just tell he’s going to try and do what he’s tried to do every start of this Derby season – sit dead last and try to circle the entire field.  That doesn’t work, especially in a Derby without much early speed.

Erlich: If you’re not an asshole, this company dies.

For Danzing Candy (19/1), who breaks from post 20 and only has one plan in this race – break quickly, immediately veer over to the rail as fast as possible, and hang on.  I could see him messing something up early, but he has no choice.  He must be used by virtue of being the only real early speed horse in the entire race, but man it’s tough to feel good about it.

Gavin: I don’t know about you people, but I don’t want to live in a world where someone else makes the world a better place better than we do.

For Outwork (19/1), who I think would really want to do what Danzing Candy is going to do, but can’t quite do it well enough.  Outwork feels like a horse that needs the lead, but I doubt his connections are going to be willing to commit to it.  I don’t think it ends particularly well for him, but he must be considered if he can all the sudden prove he can sit off the pace.

Richard: Jobs was a poser.  He didn’t even code.

Could this be for anyone but Nyquist (15/1)?  We’ve talked our Nyquist hatred to death at this point, but just to put a bow on it.  Nyquist is a nice horse, but he’s not a Derby horse.  He’s going to have a good season when he finally drops back to running sprint to mile races and not pretending he’s a 1-1/4 mile horse. 

Russ Hanneman: I’m that much closer to re-billionizing!

For Mohaymen (12/1), who is far too similar to the accidental billionaire Russ Hanneman.  Mohaymen always struck as the type horse that was a Derby favorite by proxy.  I know you can spin the case for him that had he run “his race” in the Florida Derby, he wins it.  But, the Florida Derby wasn’t much of a field.  “His race” can win the Florida Derby, but I don’t know if it can win the Kentucky Derby.  He needs a big step forward Saturday, and others just seem more likely to take that step.

Richard: I have a meeting with Gavin Belson.  He wants to talk about Pied Piper.

Erlich: I own 10% of Pied Piper.

Richard: You said it was a shitty idea.

Erlich: It WAS a shitty idea.  I don’t know what it is now.

For Destin (5/1), who remains one of the biggest puzzles in this race.  On the plus side, he’s run two of the fastest preps so far this season and he has a running style that looks to set him up perfectly for this race.  On the other hand, he’s never really run a step outside of his two races at Tampa and he’s off an eight week layoff, which is about three weeks longer than you’d probably like.  There’s so much value here at his 15/1 morning line that I think you just have to say he’s a horse getting more talented more quickly than the rest of the field and use him heavily in any bets.

Erlich: We are trending up, boys!  We are trending up!

For Exaggerator (9/2), who looks to be peaking at the right time.  There’s definitely questions abound given that he’s going to likely try to close from far back, but he’s just faster than this group on paper.  It’s really hard for me to believe that he doesn’t figure in to the finish barring some horrendous trouble, which is unfortunately possible for a horse like him.  I also think Battaglia’s 8/1 morning line isn’t happening here.  I’m thinking he’s closer to 5/1 by post time.