I love that you open by saying how there's no big favorite and it's wide open....and then talk about the four favorites.....But, yeah, this looks like a bad group.
Yeah, last year we thought the Derby was wide open...and yes, we were as wrong as we possibly could have been. The stat about four of the last five Derby's being won by favorites is really freaking incredible. For our not as racing obsessed friends, favorites win thoroughbred races around 30-ish% of the time. Average thoroughbred races have 7-8 horses. The Derby is a 20 horse crapshoot of a race filled with young horses, none of which have ever raced at the 1 1/4 mile distance or in a race with more than 10-12 runners. In other words, it is the exact type of race you would expect the favorite to RARELY win. And, you would have been right...for a while. It wasn't that long ago that longshots like Charismatic, War Emblem, Giacomo, and freaking Mine That Bird were winning the Derby at big prices.
But, at the end of the day, what happened last year in the Derby doesn't matter. None of them do. Way too many stupid people try to take results of this extremely small sample size and find meaning. Yes, favorites have dominated the past five years, but that is just as meaningless as the streak of years without a favorite winning. But, I still think the Derby is the type of race that is built to have crazy results, and this field looks like a group so bad that anything can happen.
With that said, looking through this field, I'm not finding much that inspires me. I need to re-watch all the preps today and see if that will help me at all, but, wow, just not a very impressive group. Remember a few years ago when having a few triple digit Beyers was almost a prerequisite to have a chance in the Derby? Now we're staring down a Derby field with THREE horses that have cracked that 100 barrier. One of them only did so at two (Classic Empire). And one of them, J Boys Echo, has never run above a 90 in any other start...which makes me strongly question the validity of the 102 he got in the Gotham.
As for the third horse that has cracked 100......I have a feeling that by Saturday we will have completely talked ourselves into Irish War Cry. The top two Beyers in the field at 3 (a pair of 101's), a trainer (Graham Motion) that can get a horse ready for a big race, won two major preps, bred to be a two turn horse, tactical speed, and probably ends up third or fourth choice? We probably can't pass on a horse like that, right?
The other intriguing one to me at first blush is Tapwrit. He's a son of Tapit which means distance shouldn't be a problem, yeah, I know, we always say pedigree is overrated. He ran AWFUL last out in the Blue Grass, but it was a weird race and he was unprepared at the start. Before that he looked great winning the Tampa Bay Derby. He's not a need the lead type, but he doesn't need to be too far back. Pletcher and Jose Espinoza are as good a combo as you'll find...at a price he can be a factor, right?
It's definitely a year where you're left trying to make cases for horses and not so much against horses. They all look pretty bad, they all have real flaws, they all have questions to answer. I can't wait for this Classic Empire - Always Dreaming exacta.
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