Thursday, May 4, 2017

Derby 2017 - Good News, Everyone! A Derby Field Rundown!

I'm not going to even bother responding to your ramblings at the start.  That last post reads as the disorganized thoughts of a broken man.  But...

Now that the posts are drawn and past performances are out, let's run down the field from worst to first!  As per usual, I'm stealing Bill Simmons fantastic bit of pairing a quote with a horse, and this year, I'm using Futurama quotes.  How we've never used Futurama before blows my mind.  As usual, with each horse, I'll include what I think their fair odds are in the race.  So, without further ado...

Bender: Not enough room? My place is two cubic meters, and we only take up 1.5 cubic meters. We've got room for a whole 'nother two thirds of a person!

Poor Lookin at Lee (199/1), who already was going to have a hard enough time, draws the rail.  Even good horses run bad from the rail in the Derby.  I'm assuming he'll get a horrific trip, be crowded early, and maybe run like 13th or something.

Kif: Well, sir, I'm a little nervous about meeting her parents.
Zapp Brannigan: Of course you are. You're meek and uninteresting.

There's nothing worth discussing on Fast and Accurate (199/1) other than that he's a horse who exists and is running along with 19 other horses.

[Zoidberg is unsuccessful in attracting a mate]
Leela: Why is Zoidberg the only one still alone?
Bender: Because he's a loser, that's why. He's the lobster equivalent of Fry.
Fry: Hey, I can have any girl I want anytime I want! I'm just too busy.
[He plays with a yo-yo and the string gets tangled. He snarls and starts to untie it.]

Sonneteer (199/1) is the field's lone maiden (horse who has never won a race).  He's gonna stay that way more than likely.

Leela: After all this time, somebody else with one eye... who ISN'T a clumsy carpenter or a kid with a BB gun.

I had to make a one-eyed joke about Patch (199/1), right?

Amy: Leela's gonna kill me.
Bender: No, she'll probably make me do it.

Battle of Midway (99/1) seems to have one purpose in the race - set a stupid fast pace and run the hopes of anything near the lead to have a shot.  I don't know if he's actually that fast, but the Derby's pace is always 1-2 seconds faster than I expect, and I imagine Battle of Midway will have something to do with it.

Glab: I can think of no better place for this centre of diplomacy than here in orbit around the Neutral Planet. What are your thoughts on this momentous occasion, Your Neutralness?
Neutral President: I have no strong feelings one way or the other.

This is about how I feel about Untrapped (66/1).  I could be talked into using him or tossing him completely.

Professor Farnsworth: Who are those horrible orange creatures over there?
Glurmo: Why those are the Grunka-Lunkas. They work here in the Slurm factory.
Professor Farnsworth: Tell them I hate them.

I just do not buy into J Boy's Echo (66/1) at all.  I'm not sure his Gotham is as fast as Beyer has it and there's a handful of talented closers in here.  Not seeing it.

Harold Zoid: So, you want to be a comedian, is it?
Dr. Zoidberg: It's my life long dream.
Harold Zoid: Well, that dream dies now! You're unfunny and untalented. That's why you're perfect for drama.

Every year, there's a horse that runs in the Derby that is destined to either be a great sprinter or turf horse.  Practical Joke (49/1) is this year's edition.  He just hung so badly in the Blue Grass and I don't think he wants any part of two turns ultimately.  He should be running on the undercard in the Pat Day Mile.

George Foreman: As an interesting side note, as a head without a body, I envy the dead.
Rich Little (impersonating Howard Cosell): No argument here.

There's one horse every year that runs when they're over the top and should take some time off.  Girvin (40/1) looks like this year's edition.  With all the rumors David alluded to of foot issues, I'm not touching him with a 20 ft pole.

Fry: Don't listen to them, Leela. People said I was dumb, but I proved them!

Thunder Snow (27/1) is getting a little more attention than your typical Godolphin import from Dubai, and I don't get it.  He didn't run particularly fast winning the UAE Derby (Beyer had it at an estimated 94) and he doesn't look to me like a horse yearning for even more distance.  I'm done being the person that talks myself into the Dubai horse whenever they show up.

Prof. Farnsworth: Nothing is impossible! Not if you can imagine it. That's what being a scientist is all about!
Cubert Farnsworth: No, that's what being a magical elf is all about!

I can see a weird world where State of Honor (24/1) sneaks away and wires this field, but it's very unlikely.  I think the horse has talent though, and I'll be using him in exotics.  Given that I'm a fan of basically every horse that's beat him this year, I could see him hanging on for 3rd.

Fry: It's just like the story of the grasshopper and the octopus. All year long, the grasshopper kept burying acorns for winter, while the octopus mooched off his girlfriend and watched TV. But then the winter came, and the grasshopper died, and the octopus ate all his acorns. Also he got a race car. Is any of this getting through to you?

I don't quite know what to make of Hence (19/1).  On paper, he's run one good race in the Sunland Derby, and that race appeared to be the result of an incredible pace setup.  However, looking at the day, that's just how Sunland plays it seems, and the race is pretty normal by our pace figures.  Is he just finally getting good?  Tough to tell.

Fry: Leela, there's something I've wanted to tell you for a long time but every time I try I get nervous and my mouth feels like it's stuffed with peanut butter, even when it's not.
Leela: What is it? Is it about Bender?
Fry: No, it's about you and me.
Leela: And Bender?
Fry: Bender's not involved. Leela ... I love you.
Leela: You do?
Fry: Yes. But it's only recently that I've been able to articulate my thoughts. I love you, Leela, and I always have.
Leela: Fry, that's the sweetest, most wonderful-- Wait, "recently?" Like since you ate that toilet sandwich?
Fry: Yeah! I don't know why but my life really turned around that day.

I'm not sure why Irap (19/1) decided to pick the most loaded-with-talent prep to be the first win of his career, but it doesn't totally surprise me.  I bet him there and in the Robert B. Lewis back in February.  I think he's got some talent and just finally put it together.  I can't get it out of my head how much he was begging Practical Joke to run by him that day though.

Fry: Fear not. I shall assist ye.
Hermes: Robots don't say "ye"!
Fry: Relax, mammal. My robotic software shall meet your calculatory needs. What is the meaning of this symbol?
Hermes: That's a plus sign, ya pointy-haired loony! Quit thinking you're a robot!
Fry: I'll show ye...

I don't know why I can't like Gunnevera (19/1) more than I do.  He looks like a Derby contender, but something's missing.  His Fountain of Youth win was a great effort, but once Irish War crapped the bed, there wasn't a whole lot in that field.  I think you have to use him for the price he's going to be, but it's tough to take him seriously as a main contender.

Prof. Farnsworth: Doomsday device? Ah, now the ball's in Farnsworth's court!

As the rain continues to pour here with it looking like it won't stop between now and Saturday, we may need to take Gormley (15/1) a bit more seriously.  His win in the Sham stakes back in January came over a sloppy surface and was one of the more impressive preps this season.  I'm a little worried after his meh Santa Anita Derby win that his connections think he's a closer now when he probably isn't.  It wouldn't shock me if he made a good showing in the slop.

Dwight: You don't wanna miss the unveiling of our new company, do you?
Hermes: Company? [He laughs.] How cute! What will you be pedalling? Lemonade? Shoe shines? Cootie insurance?
Farnsworth: Perhaps they've constructed a teddy bear hospital!
[They laugh]
Cubert: Actually, we're starting a competing delivery company.
[He pulls the sheet off to reveal a red "Awesome Express" logo. Hermes and Farnsworth look at each other and stand up]
Hermes: Welcome to the world of business.
[He and Farnsworth kick the logo and smash it down]

I like Tapwrit (15/1) b/c I like McCraken (who I'll get to later), but it's hard to see Tapwrit as anything more than a poor man's McCraken.  They've raced twice, they run similarly, and McCraken has beaten him soundly both times.  That said, I like McCraken for the same reasons I like Tapwrit, and I think he has to be used at his 20/1 ML.

Fry: I'm Santa Claus!
Hermes: No, I'm Santa Claus!
Amy: We're also Santa Claus!
Dr. Zoidberg: [with a heavenly aura around him] And I'm his friend, Jesus.
Mayor: You guys aren't Santa! You're not even robots. How dare you lie in front of Jesus!

Maybe my favorite moment in Futurama history is reserved for our morning line favorite, Classic Empire (11/1).  He has the resume of favorite, but something about him just feels off.  He's a bit of a headcase, he isn't particularly fast, and I'm not even sure his Juvenile is that fast.  I've soured on him as the week progresses, but I have to admit that he probably needs to be kept in.

Evil Lincoln: Real holographic simulated Evil Lincoln is BACK!!!

I know there's a lot of reasons to knock McCraken (6/1), but if the pace gets hot and the track comes up sloppy, he's going to be real damn tough in here.  The horse had done no wrong until his last race, where he came in nowhere near 100% and just ran a bizarre race (along with 3/4ths of the field).

Bender: So do you know I'm going to do something before I do it?
God Entity: Yes.
Bender: What if I do something else?
God Entity: Then I don't know that.

A perfect quote for Irish War Cry (5/1), who feels like the crux of this whole thing.  He could be great, he could be a fraud.  I'm erring on the side of believing he's good though b/c, to your point earlier, we really don't know how good our speed figures are.

Fry: What's so wonderful about Leela being normal? The rest of us aren't normal and that's what makes us great. Like Dr. Zoidberg: He's a weird monster who smells like he eats garbage and does. Zoidberg: Damn right!
Fry: The Professor's a senile, amoral crackpot.
[Farnsworth blubbers and waves.]
Fry: Hermes is a Rastafarian accountant.
Hermes: Tally me banana.
Fry: Amy's a klutz from Mars.
[Amy drops the glass she is drinking from and it smashes.]
Amy: Sploops!
Farnsworth: And, Fry, you've got that brain thing.
Fry: I already did! So, Leela, do you wanna be like us? Or do you wanna be like Adlai with no severe mental or social problems whatsoever?
Leela: That's the dumbest question I ever heard!

This remains how I feel about Always Dreaming (9/2).  I just don't see a knock on the horse after his Florida Derby, and there's serious knocks on every horse in this field.  I always say the most talented horse in the Derby finds his or her way into the trifecta.  That feels like Always Dreaming this year, for several reasons I've already spelled out.

And now, let's end with a bonus quote...

Bender: Game's over, losers! I have all the money!! Compare your lives to mine and then kill yourselves!

This won't be us, but I'd like it to be... maybe.

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