Here we go again David, another year in the endless hellish
cycle of “Hey, the Derby! 20 horses
going a distance they’ve never gone before in a field of absurd size! Let’s throw THOUSANDS of dollars at
that?!” As usual, I’ll kick things
off. Every year I like to start with a
recap of the previous year. Last year,
we had two prevailing thoughts:
1)
It was a bad group, which leads to unpredictable
results and massive payouts.
2)
Nyquist was one of the worst Derby favorites
we’ve ever seen.
So, we were right about the group being bad. We were wrong about, well, everything
else. Not only did Nyquist crush the
field, but the 2nd choice ran 2nd, 3rd choice
3rd, and 4th choice 4th, resulting in what has
to be the smallest superfecta in Derby history.
I blame us entirely for the result.
Regardless, we actually ended up having a pretty good Triple Crown, as
we were all over Exaggerator winning the Preakness and came about a nose short
of a five-figure payout in the Belmont when Creator won the head bob over Destin. Maybe we should just write about those races.
So far, I’ve been pretty uninspired with this three year old
crop. The preps that looked like they
were going to be good wound up with puzzling results. Too many horses in this group have run just
total clunkers insofar that keying them feels like a bit of a coin flip. I’m actually ok with this as nothing can
crush my spirit more than being all-in on a horse, only to see them get a
terrible post draw or whatever other innumerable disasters can occur in the
days leading up to the race.
That lack of inspiration starts at the top with Classic
Empire. My prevailing thought all season
has been that racing fans desperately want this horse to be the next big
thing. He checks all the boxes –
champion 2yo, blue blood classic pedigree, Lexington royalty owner, top
trainer. He’s exactly what you’d want in
a Derby runner. The connections
confidence is sky high, saying that he was only about 95% ready in his Arkansas
Derby win. I think more and more people
are going to watch that Arkansas Derby, which is visually a much more
impressive race then it translated to on paper, and tell themselves that 3/1 or
7-2 is a fair price on Classic Empire.
Now, unlike Nyquist, I do think Classic Empire rates a very
good chance to win the race. He should
almost certainly be one of the favorites.
But I don’t feel like he’s an overwhelming favorite like California
Chrome was back in 2014. Slice it
however you want, but his Breeder’s Cup Juvenile is still the most impressive
race any horse in this crop has run.
However, that was six months ago.
That’s a lifetime ago for horses of this age. A lot of people are still betting him off
that race more than anything else. The
Arkansas Derby was a help in reinforcing that belief, but that’s the race
people are really pointing to for him.
In the last five years, the Derby favorite has an incredible record of 5
starts, 4 wins, 1 second, with only Bodemeister managing to squander a
six-length lead to I’ll Have Another as the blemish. All of those horses – even the much maligned
by me Nyquist – had a 3yo resume that included multiple prep wins or
ludicrously fast races. (Bodemeister is
the only one without multiple 3yo prep victories – he’s also the only loser of
the bunch.)
Conclusion: Classic Empire is a very good horse, but in no
way deserving of favoritism in this race.
So who do I like?
Well, there’s plenty of time for that, but I’ll start with three horses
for now.
Always Dreaming: Don’t like the favorite? Go for the second choice I suppose! Always Dreaming joined the Todd Pletcher barn
after a couple okay 2yo starts, and Pletcher waited to run him until he turned
3. So what’s he done since joining Pletcher? Well, he first broke his maiden by 11-1/2
lengths, then he won a four-horse allowance race in a fashion that was much
more akin to a public work, then he won the Florida Derby by five lengths with
a 97 Beyer, three points faster than Classic Empire’s Arkansas Derby win. I feel like, with the majority of the field,
I know about how good they are. We have
no idea how good Always Dreaming is.
This horse could be a monster and we just haven’t seen him face any
competition yet. I’m a little worried he
hasn’t run THAT fast yet, and that’s my only concern.
Irish War Cry: Sigh, how about the third choice?! This looks like the type of horse we love to
bet. He’s fast, owning two of the three fastest
Beyers this year in his wins in the Holy Bull (101 Beyer) and the Wood Memorial
(also a 101). The big issue is the race
in between those two, the Fountain of Youth.
He just ran AWFUL. What the hell
happened there? We still don’t know to
this day, but whatever it was, they seemed to figure it out in the Wood. Now, if you care about these things, Irish
War Cry finished VERY slow in the Wood… I don’t know if it means much
though. I tend not to think about these
things too hard. Anyway, draw a line
through the Fountain of Youth, he’s easily the most accomplished 3yo in this
crop.
McCraken: Ugh. These
are the types of horses we NEVER bet: overhyped closers that are working up a
storm in the morning and are definitely going to take way too much money. However, sometimes pace makes the race. And I can’t find a closer with anywhere close
to the talent McCraken has. The Blue
Grass is definitely cause for concern, but we bet 31/1 winner Irap in there
specifically because there was no pace to fire at on paper, and that mostly
came to fruition. McCraken sat a little
closer than he liked I think, and getting his trip on Saturday should be in the
cards. Also, if it rains like it’s
threatening to, he’s going to devour the mud with his pedigree.
No comments:
Post a Comment