Derby 2017 - Let's Do Some Data Mining!

I thought about including Tapwrit in my list, but my two issues with him were the relatively easy trips he got in his two Tampa races and the fact that he's a pretty clear 0-2 against McCraken.  That being said, if you could be convinced to like McCraken, using Tapwrit as a main play around him isn't a terrible strategy.  Assuming McCraken is #1 gives Tapwrit a nice claim at #2.

Before we go any further, let's really confuse the crap out of the bulk of our readership and do some data diving!  It's like dumpster diving, only less useful!  Anyway, there's a long and painful story that goes with this, but the punchline is that I have a crapload of data, and I've converted it into a database with my own pace and speed figures.  And I'm going to share it free of charge b/c I'm a super nice guy...

2017 Derby Data

This file has two tabs.  The first is a summary of every prep race - who won, where they were early in the race, their speed figure (semi-home grown in our data), who was on the lead early, and their pace figure (also semi-home grown).  The second is each of the perspective 20 horses' North American race record. (I say North American b/c one of the 20, Thunder Snow, has not raced in North America.)

So, what can we glean from this?  A few things jump out at me...

• Always Dreaming has the fastest speed figure in our data and one of the fastest pace figures too in the Florida Derby. Once again, we may not have any idea how good this horse is.
• Besides Always Dreaming, I'm not sure we've seen McCraken's best yet either.
• I was worried the pace was going to be very hot in this race, and I'm not so sure anymore.  There's a couple horses that are fast early, but nothing sticks out as ludicrous.  State of Honor looks like your one of your two clear early leaders (with Battle of Midway), and he's got more talent in our numbers than the Beyers published in the Daily Racing Form.  Not to delve too much into strategy now, but he could be a sneaky play to fill out trifectas and superfectas.
• Classic Empire doesn't leap off the page, and it makes me wonder if his Breeder's Cup effort is a bit overrated given that we don't have it particularly fast.
• I mentioned before that Irish War Cry seemed to figure out his issues in the Wood Memorial, yet we have it as the slowest of the final prep races, a stark contrast from Beyer, who has it fastest.  We may need to delve into Wood Memorial Day a little more to understand what's going on here.  Aqueduct can be an odd track given that it's situated on Jamaica Bay and heavy winds can play a factor in times there.
• Likewise, the Blue Grass's pace figures look odd, with horses like McCraken, Tapwrit, and J Boys Echo running much faster pace numbers then they ever had.  The race was run a bit oddly, but again, something that may merit more research.

Any thoughts on your end on our data adventure?

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