But, I will say, I'm not really happy my fair brother decided to switch things up and use lyrics. Now I'm sitting here like, "Oh man, do I need to use lyrics?" I've wrestled with this for a while now, trying to decide if I should just abandon that plan and use old faithful tv show lines/characters. Or, if I should maybe throw my own curveball and use something else cool...like what letter in the alphabet each horse is like or something equally nonsensical. Then I went down a circuitous path of trying decide what artist I could use if I did go musicians...Not many artists that I love have 8,746 songs like the Foo Fighters. Other artists I love drop words in virtually every line that I hesitate to throw on here repeatedly...But then it hit me...I am going to change things up a bit since lyrics take too much time to search for, but I'll keep the same spirit. So, what am I comparing this years Derby horses to?
Something I truly love: 80s Songs! It's perfect. I'm excited. This is going to be fun.
Should I Stay Or Should I Go - The Clash
Yeah, these horses should probably just go (i.e. no chance): FIRENZE FIRE, BRAVAZO, COMBATANT.
Livin' On A Prayer - Bon Jovi
This is a perfect description for PROMISES FULFILLED. It seems like a near certainty that the Dale Romans trainee will be on the lead early, and he very well might be on the lead when they're halfway there, but at that point he will certainly be livin' on a prayer. He's probably in need of divine intervention to be close at the end.
Don't You Want Me - Human League
No FLAMEAWAY and SOLOMINI I do not want you. You're both beautiful in your way, but you're just not for me.
Never Gonna Give You Up - Rick Astley
This is kind of a personal one. As a terrible gambler, sometimes you fall in love with a horse in a race...and you're really, really, wrong. This happened to me in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile with a a horse named FREE DROP BILLY. Now, the smart thing to do would be cut your losses and move on. I didn't do that. Instead I bet heavily on Free Drop Billy in all three of his subsequent starts, which have all been losses. I'm too far behind now to ever get even on him, but what am I gonna do? Turn around, let him down, and desert him? I don't think so. I will waste some money for my own sanity on this hopeless runner on Saturday.
Don't You (Forget About Me) - Simple Minds
First, I really love this song and listen to it almost every day. That doesn't have anything to do with this, I just wanted you to know that. But there are a few horses I'm not forgetting about despite big prices: INSTILLED REGARD, LONE SAILOR, and ENTICED. To be fair, I don't like anything about Lone Sailor except the fact that a couple of people I think aren't complete idiots like the horse and told me he's looked great training...so, I'll leave him third. I honestly didn't even know Instilled Regard was running here until the post draw, but the more I look the more intrigued I get. With a legit pace to fire at he could get up for third. Enticed was considered a top prospect to start the season. He was even favored over Audible in the Holy Bull (and ran awful). But, then he won the Gotham easily and ran a decent second to Vino Rosso in the Wood, with a tougher trip than Vino got. He could run third.
You Can't Hurry Love - Phil Collins
You truly can't hurry love, you also can't hurry HOFBURG or MY BOY JACK early on in a race. There's a very good chance these two will be last and second to last early. And, there's an equally good chance one will end up running third. I think Hofburg was better than Audible in the Florida Derby, I think he deserves to be 15/1 or so and I'd probably put him in my top 4 for this race. My Boy Jack is not as good, but he will come running late and does have a big turn of foot.
A Matter of Trust - Billy Joel
We're about to enter a stretch of horses that are going to take money and that I don't like. Personally I just don't trust them. That run starts with VINO ROSSO. Philip already pointed it out, but, he got smoked by Flameaway twice at Tampa. Flameaway is not considered a top tier contender by me, or basically anyone. Now Vino is going to be 12/1 after getting a dream set-up in a race that collapsed? I just don't trust him.
Girl You Know It's True - Milli Vanilli
OK, I cheated as this song is actually from 1990. But, I have a hilarious (in my mind, and my mind only) comparison to make here...So, this song, for me, fits GOOD MAGIC. Good Magic was a champion at two, he won a major prep, the Blue Grass, in his final pre-Derby start. And yet, just like when Milli Vanilli broke America's collective heart when we found out they were lip syncing, I think Good Magic will end up being exposed as a cut below the best of his generation this weekend.
Danger Zone - Kenny Loggins
I don't like AUDIBLE. He's fast, he's won four straight races by open lengths, and I just don't like him. He's bred to be a sprinter. He has to be hard ridden the entire race to give any effort. His works look terrible and he routinely gets outrun by so so horses in the morning. I get that he has run fast, I really do. But, I just don't like him. I don't think he wants this distance and I don't think he's as good as his last two suggest he could be. This is a strong stand against a fast horse, it's something of a Danger Zone (see what I did there), but it's a feeling I can't shake. If he is in the exacta I don't want to cash.
I Can't Go For That - Hall and Oates
Much like the entry I have just above this one, I get that everyone likes MAGNUM MOON. He's undefeated. He doesn't seem slow on paper. But, he hasn't beaten anything I consider to be good, and he veered right all down the stretch last time at Oaklawn. I just can't go for that in a horse that will be a top four choice. I wouldn't use him above third in anything.
Can't Fight This Feelin' - REO Speedwagon
My brother is all about numbers and logic. I am mostly about numbers and logic when it comes to betting horses, but I go by my gut sometimes. It's probably not smart. But, it's something I do. And, I just get a feeling that NOBLE INDY is being overlooked in this field. He's 30/1 on the morning line while Magnum Moon is 6/1 and Vino Rosso is 12/1? Noble Indy just ran a 95 Beyer in a race that collapsed around him, in other words it looks like a GOOD 95 to me. Vino Rosso and Magnum Moon ran 98's, but did so with DREAM set-ups. In other words I think they were suspect 98's. Now, that said, Noble Indy will be forced to sit a bit further back than he has so far in his career. But, you're getting a legit Todd Pletcher horse at 30/1 off a Louisiana Derby win? Why fight that feeling?
Every Rose Has It's Thorn - Poison
I think BOLT D'ORO is a rose. He's an extremely talented racehorse that's bred to go the Derby distance, has a Derby savant riding him (Victor Espinoza), and got a dream post draw. But, there's one major thorn that's been in his side...Justify. Justify beat him soundly in the Santa Anita Derby and figures to be favored over him this Saturday as well. If not for the existence of Justify, Bolt d'Oro would probably be the Derby favorite.
Everybody Wants To Rule The World - Tears For Fears
A perfect description for one of the hardest horses to figure out I've ever encountered leading up to the Derby...MENDELSSOHN. He has stakes wins on three continents in just seven career starts. There's only seven continents you guys, and Antarctica barely counts...so, he's basically won stakes races in half of the world's continents...again, IN SEVEN CAREER STARTS. If he wins the Derby Aidan O'Brien should make it his mission to get wins in the other three. Send him to South America, Africa, and Australia guys. Why not? Oh, and he has a pretty huge chance. He is the only horse in the race that I think could potentially beat Justify if Justify runs his race.
Back In The High Life Again - Steve Winwood
I love that I've made two references to this song in our Derby discussion this year. Really, this is why I used 80's song, just to use this song again. Bob Baffert has won Derbys (Derbies?). He's even won a Triple Crown. The dude owns this race. On Saturday I fully expect him to be back in the high life again when JUSTIFY proves to be a legitimate Triple Crown threat. I'm sold on him. I am a believer. His races are brilliant. His running style fits the Derby. He looks like a champion. He works like a champion. Everything he's done has been so easy. I don't think we have any idea how good he might be yet, and he's already been better than everything else in this race. Just take the 3/1 Saturday, you're never getting that price on him again.
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