Derby Discussion Part 5 - "Foo"d for Thought

First off, apologies for missing a day.  I know what most of you are thinking... "Wait, you were gonna do this on a DAILY basis?!"  Look, I have a standard to uphold... Or something.  Where was I last night rather than regaling you with Derby analysis?  I was here:

More on that in a minute.

Second, good thing I did delay, b/c we have a ton more information now.  We've got post positions, ML odds, more work reports I'm really counting on David to add in, etc. etc. etc.  So, I'll be responding to, well, A LOT.  So buckle in!

While at the concert, I thought it was only appropriate to use Foo Fighters songs in our usual gimmick we stole from Bill Simmons and made worse years ago - pairing Derby runners with quotes that describe them.  I'll also be including what I feel their odds SHOULD be to advise betting on them, so this is not the actual morning line from Churchill Downs.  Ok, no more preamble, let's go!

Long road to ruin
There in your eyes
Under the cold streetlights
No tomorrow
No dead-end in sight

To our "toss" club of Firenze Fire, Free Drop Billy, Lone Sailor, Bravazo, and Combatant (all 200/1), the Derby trail is long, and ends in a bad place for you all.

These are my famous last words
My number's up bridges will burn

Of course the opening to "Bridges Burning" about going down and taking whomever with you would go to Promises Fulfilled (99/1).  He will run with you for a 1/2 mile and do it swiftly - tangle with him, and you're just as doomed as he is.  The only reason he's not a complete toss is that speed, b/c if you're betting a trifecta, you ALWAYS leave cheap speed in 3rd, especially when they'll be at least 30/1.

What if I say I'm not like the others?
What if I say I'm not just another one of your plays?
You're the pretender

I've seen too many horses like Hofburg (65/1) to be suckered in.  He's run one pretty good race that is getting blown WAY out of proportion.  I feel pretty confident saying he's your "smoke horse" this year that takes just an obscene amount of money for no reason other than everyone thinks he'll be good value, then he isn't.  Not only are there better horses in this field; there are better closers too.  I will save Hofburg for when he's a good play - The Belmont.

I'm learnin' to walk again
I believe I've waited long enough
Where do I begin?
I'm learnin' to talk again
Can't you see I've waited long enough?
Where do I begin?

I think there's a small case to be made for Instilled Regard (65/1), who started the season pretty high on the rankings with a nice LeComte win.  If he can get some of that old form back, he's at least usable in very small tri's/exactas.

end over end

end over end

end over end

I'm circling

This is about the best shot My Boy Jack (49/1) has - he's going to sit last and try to circle the field.  His Louisiana Derby effort was very weird as he tried that very move, and then just didn't sustain that run for the final head he needed to push past.  I think he's a solid horse, but that type of move rarely works in the Derby, and with how toploaded this group is, I have trouble seeing it.

Oh sweet ignition be my fuse
You have no choice you have to choose
Bid farewell to yesterday
Say goodbye I'm on my way

I'm using this one for both Solomini (65/1) and Noble Indy (33/1).  Both got very wide posts (17 and 19 respectively) and are stalkers that want to be semi-close to the pace in a race with a lot of horses like that.  So they have a choice on how to run, and I don't think either ends well: try to go early and end up 4-5 wide in that first turn, or try to drop back and close, something neither particularly wants to do.  I know David likes Noble Indy, so I save further thoughts on him until I hear what kind of trip David thinks he can work out from the 19 hole.

When I talked about it
Carried on
Reasons only knew

But it's you I fell into

Do you want a Mentos all the sudden? Anyway, I don't have much logic for thinking Flameaway (33/1) has a chance to hit the board in this race, but I think there's a case to be made. He just hasn't run a bad race and was right there with Good Magic in the Blue Grass last out. He's the type of honest, hard-knocking horse that you can expect will just show up and not crap the bed. I think if you're playing any decent-sized tickets, you have to include him.

Yeah you can run with me
If you wanted to

Enticed (33/1) is a weird one to figure.  Prior to the Wood Memorial, he was considered at least "in the mix" when it came to Derby discussions.  Now, after a meh Wood Memorial performance where he sat too close to a blistering pace, it feels like he's being just completely tossed aside.  I think there's a not-0% chance he can run with these, a bit like Flameaway.  

And tonight I thank the stars
As I count my lucky scars
For everything you've given me

I don't know why I'm remotely scared of Vino Rosso (24/1), as the horse is only in the race thanks to a dream setup in the Wood Memorial.  Prior to that race, he was on NOBODY's radar after consistently getting beat up on in Tampa.  Somehow, this horse is 12/1 on the morning line, and Flameaway is 30/1 after Flameaway beat him twice in Tampa by open lengths.  Horse racing is weird man.

Worth noting that with Vino Rosso, we're now in the clear top seven on the morning line, and I have to admit that I have no idea how betting is going to shake out in this race.  Justify will be your favorite, but outside of that, your guess is as good as mine.

One of these days
I bet your heart'll be broken
I bet your pride'll be stolen
I bet I bet I bet I bet
One of these days
One of these days

I know that Magnum Moon (15/1)  is 4-for-4 and has won all his races by open lengths, but I don't think he was facing much in Arkansas.  His Arkansas Derby win looks better on video than on paper, and I care about the latter far more than the eye test.  I think he cracks when he sees this field - currently, I believe the best horse he's ever faced is Solomini, who I put at 65/1 in this field.  One thing that worries me about Magnum Moon is his price.  He seems like one that could be lost in the shuffle for the reasons I just laid out.  I might steal a pct from Vino Rosso and put it on Magnum Moon just to justify betting him when he's up there at way more than his 6/1 morning line.

There goes my hero
Watch him as he goes
There goes my hero
He's ordinary

Good Magic (12/1) is the type of horse that if you liked him going into the year off his 2yo Champion campaign, he hasn't done anything to dissuade you from that opinion.  However, I don't think he's done enough to get any new fans, and that's how a Champion 2yo and winner of the Blue Grass ends up with a 12/1 morning line.  There are years where a horse like Good Magic would be your favorite or 2nd choice - this ain't one of those years.

All my life I've been searching for something
Something never comes never leads to nothing
Nothing satisfies but I'm getting close
Closer to the prize at the end of the rope

Man, it's tough to advocate for Bolt d'Oro (7/1) to actually win this race when all he does is come up short in big races.  Last year, he ran well in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile, but not well enough.  Last out, he ran well in the Santa Anita Derby, but he ran into a buzzsaw.  Horses like these always seem to be forgotten, so he's another one that could go off at a crazy nice price.

I, I'm a new day rising
I'm a brand new sky
To hang the stars upon tonight
I am a little divided
Do I stay or run away
And leave it all behind?

I'm pretty worried you're going to talk me out of Audible (6/1), who is the fastest horse in this race according to both our numbers and our dad's numbers.  He's dominated the Florida preps and maybe moved a bit too early in the Florida Derby, making his race look less impressive visually than it may have been.  I think he's a hell of a horse with a big shot here.

Hello
I've waited here for you
Everlong

After YEARS of throwing away money on suspect horses from Dubai, you're telling me we might have a legitimate freak from there in the form of Mendelssohn (6/1)?  SIGN ME UP!  Mendelssohn is one whose opinion for me will fluctuate depending on the results of the Oaks on Friday.  Rayya, who ran a very distant second to Mendelssohn last out, is coming back to run in the Oaks, and it's the only indication we're going to get of how good the UAE Derby really was. If she can at least run decent there, watch out.

One last thing before I quit!
I never wanted any more than I could fit into my head!
I still remember every single word you said,
And all the shit that somehow came along with it!
Still, there's one thing that comforts me
Since I was always caged and now I'm free

The more I look, the more I get the feeling that we have no idea how good Justify (3/1) actually is, and we're gonna find out on Saturday.  Another horse we haven't mentioned yet that we saw this with before was Big Brown, who just toyed with fields up to the Derby, only to toy with that field too.  This is a better group than Big Brown faced, but sometimes, you just don't overthink it and take the talent.  And that's Justify.