Derby Discussion Part 7 - Early Odds and Some Final Tiers

Oaks day has come and gone and the good news for us is, well, we still got money for tomorrow I suppose.  I was hoping the Oaks would shed a little light on the Derby in the form of Rayya letting us know how good Mendelssohn's UAE Derby effort really was.  However, after a disasterous break, Rayya basically just loped around the track and never ran a step.  So much for that.

Next, we got some early Derby odds to look at!  Now, only a small faction of the money that will ultimately be in the pool has been bet, but the early odds tend to be a surprisingly good indicator of what the final odds will be.  So let's go in sequential order from favorite on down and what I'm thinking...

• Justify - 7/2 - With the wealth of talent in the field and how lightly raced he is, I'm not too surprised to see him float above that 3/1 ML.  He remains my top horse.
• Mendelssohn - 5/1 - Not too surprising, I still think we use him a ton.
• My Boy Jack - 5/1 - WHAT?!  I thought Hofburg was going to be the smoke horse this year, but apparently it's ol' Jack.  I do understand why as he's had some visually good efforts, but I don't know if you can pass 19 horses that are this good without all of them just completely spitting the bit.  Jack will likely end up closer to 12/1, but even that is very inadvisable.
• Audible - 6/1 - Starting to sour on him a little, maybe just b/c David keeps talking crap about it.  I think the price is fair, but I don't know if I love it compared to others.
• Good Magic - 8/1 - I think we'll be playing against him, and at least he's not going off at such a big price that we'll feel obligated to include him.
• Bolt d'Oro - 9/1 - Hmmmm.... If he floats up any more, he's gonna be mighty tempting.  
• Magnum Moon - 13/1 - Sigh... I knew his price was gonna look too good to believe.  This is the type of horse that you can really easily make a strong case for or against.  I think he drops a little bit - 10/1 or so - which would make us not using his a ton much easier.
• Vino Rosso - 18/1 - We don't seem to like him so.... bye.
• Hofburg - 24/1 - He's got enough talent to use at the bottom of stuff, but nothing crazy
• Lone Sailor - 28/1 - Meh.
• Free Drop Billy - 42/1 - 'k
• Promises Fulfilled - 42/1 - Whatevs.
• Noble Indy - 49/1 - We'll use him b/c you like him and if you can make a case for a horse that's gonna go over 30/1, you use them.
• Flameaway - 53/1 - He's usable in third.
• Enticed - 53/1 - Usable.
• Firenze Fire - 66/1 - No thanks
• Solomini - 67/1 - Probably too good to be at that price, so we'll use him a small bit in 3rd.
• Bravazo - 69/1 - Nice.  And no.
• Combatant - 79/1 - Good story, not usable here.
• Instilled Regard - 99/1 - We'll have him in stuff in 3rd, he shouldn't be the longest shot on the board.

Alright David, bring us home.