Derby 2018 Kickoff - Reverse the Curse(s)!

By Phil

Holy Week has graced us once again, and with that, comes the ramblings of two man-children claiming they can predict one of the most unpredictable events in all of sports - 20 animals running in a circle for a longer distance than any of them have ever run!  If you want to know how we did last year, I posted a 2017 Derby post mortem on the Monday after the race, so enjoy that.  Now, time to get into this field.  As usual, Phil will kick it off, and David always gets the last word.

Normally, David and I try not to talk too much about the race before starting, but we've already hopped in a bit.  I think we both agree that this isn't your prototypical Derby with a handful of horses at the top, some "just happy to be here" clunkers at the bottom, and a bevy of interesting mid-range odds horses that could have some hidden form that there sitting on.  That "fun" group of 10/1-25/1 shots that could upset the apple cart and you can build bets around?  They just aren't here this year.  This is one of the most top-heavy Derbies I've seen in a while.  Just to give you an idea, I'm going to throw out two resumes for the uninformed....

• Good Magic - Your Champion 2yo comes from the barn of Chad Brown, perhaps the top trainer east of California, and will be ridden by top jockey Jose Ortiz.  After winning the biggest race of the 2yo season in 2017, the Breeder's Cup Juvenile, he returned off a five-month break to run a solid 3rd in the Fountain of Youth and followed that up with a 1-1/4 length win in the biggest prep race at Keeneland, The Blue Grass.
• Noble Indy - Pretty nice horse from the Todd Pletcher barn that the main jockey for Pletcher, John Velasquez, opted not to ride on Saturday.  After starting his career 2-for-2, Noble Indy shipped to the Fair Grounds for The Risen Star, which has proven to be a pretty weak prep this year.  He ran third there, but it was only his third start.  After that, Noble Indy did win the Louisiana Derby by a neck over Lone Sailor, a horse being pegged at 50/1 currently in DRF's Derby Watch.

Now, Good Magic sounds like he's probably one of the top rated horses while Noble Indy is a bit of a rank outsider, no?  Well, according to the DRF Derby Watch, Good Magic is currently the 6th choice in their eyes, and Noble Indy is.... 8th.  Usually, when David and I get down to the nitty gritty of figuring out betting strategy for the Derby, we need five tiers to classify horses.  This year, we may only need three - horses who can legitimately win, horses who might be able to clunk up third, and complete tosses.

So, does that mean there's no value to be found in betting the Derby this year?  Of course not, and that's thanks to one of my best friends when it comes to Derby betting - SILLY SUPERSTITIONS!  With the Derby consistently being the most heavily-scrutinized race of the year, people tend to forget something that David always likes to say - it's "just another horse race."  While I find that to be a bit dismissive of all the variables at play here, he's not totally wrong in the sense that you'll here a lot of things about historical precedence that simply do not matter.  Here's the two big ones you'll hear, and why they don't matter...

The Curse of Apollo - Apollo won the 8th edition of the Kentucky Derby back in 1882.  He was a gelding, so his bloodlines have zero effect on the Derby at this point, so why does he STILL matter?  Well, he also happens to be the last Derby winner to win the race without having ever started as a 2yo.  Horseplayers refer to this as "The Curse of Apollo" and seem to think that horses without a 2yo start simply cannot win the race.  However, any reasonable person knows that's a load of crap.  With the way horses are conditioned at this point and now race less and less, these historical trends just don't matter.  For a long time, you couldn't win the Derby with only two races in your 3yo season, and you had to go back to Iron Liege in 1957 to find the last horse who did that.  Now, good luck finding a horse that has MORE than two preps, and since 2010, five of your eight Derby winners did so with only two preps.

The Curse is going down, and the only question is when.  In 2000, Fusaichi Pegasus won the Derby, only keeping the record alive by a case of superficiality, as he debuted only a week before turning 3.  In 2012, Derby favorite Bodemeister took a six-length lead into the stretch, only to be caught by I'll Have Another and nearly putting the Curse down for good.

This year, you have two major players looking to reverse the curse in Magnum Moon and your sure-to-be favorite, Justify.  They both look to be supremely talented, currently undefeated and winning their final preps in relative walkovers.  In the time we've been writing these previews, I would say that far and away the two most talented horses we've seen on paper coming into the Derby are Bodemeister in 2012 and American Pharoah in 2015.  Justify is in that group, and he may be #1.  I still need convincing to play him, but thanks to the Curse, you're gonna get a pretty square price on a supremely talented horse, much like with Bodemeister five years ago.

The Dubai Curse - This one isn't so much a curse as an obvious trend - no horse who has ran their final prep in the UAE Derby has ever even hit the board in the Derby.  It's not terribly shocking when you consider that these horses are relatively young and shipping from quite literally halfway around the world to run against 19 other horses that are in prime condition.

So why is 2018 UAE Derby winner Mendelssohn different?  Two reasons.  First, he's proven he can do this already, as he shipped from the UK to California off only three weeks rest as a 2yo to win the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Turf.  Second, he just might be an absolute freak of nature, as he won that UAE Derby by an astounding 18-1/2 lengths.  How big of a gap is that between Mendelssohn and 2nd place finisher Rayya?  That's the amount Always Dreaming beat Hence by in last year's Derby.  By the way, Hence finished 11th.

I'll save thoughts for other horses for later b/c I've already gone on long for a first post, but that's what I find fascinating about this Derby - I think we're going to see some shocking amount of value for very talented horses.  I'll let David expand more, but I think this is basically a six-horse race with the other 14 just vying for third maybe.  What kind of odds you get on those six is going to be fun to see.  I don't think a horse like Good Magic is nearly as talented as Justify or Mendelssohn, but there are going to be people who stubbornly will not bet the latter two.  Additionally, Good Magic is the type of horse that if you talked yourself into him early on in the Derby prep season, he hasn't given you a reason to jump off.  This feels like a Derby where you're going to have to take a big stand against some very good horses if you want to get a good payoff.  David, I know you have more thoughts here.