OK, before I say anything about Derby curses it does need to be mentioned that I am not just a little stitious...I am SUPER superstitious. I wore green socks and the same t-shirt for every game of UofL's 2013 title run THAT ABSOLUTELY DID HAPPEN!! The last song before I enter a racetrack needs to be Back in the High Life Again by Steve Winwood or I know I'll lose. I, not in a joking manner at all, blame my wife for Louisville's last second loss to Virginia this season because she walked downstairs right as the Virginia run started, I mean really, what other cause could there have been to disrupt the positive flow of universal mojo? I turn off games I bet when things aren't going my way. I don't shave for days or weeks if I think things in the world are going well for me. I absolutely understand there is no logic to any of this, and yet I adhere to my superstitious beliefs strictly and passionately.
Now, with that said...Derby curses are so stupid. You pointed out a number of cases on the alleged Apollo curse that basically show it's worthless to consider, but people are dumb and will still consider it. This isn't something that matters, like what socks I wear (which definitely does matter), this is just mass hysteria. Horses aren't trained like they used to be. In the 60s the average Derby starter entered the race on less than 10 days rest, in the 2010's that number has ballooned to 29 days since their last start. As horses run less and less it will became more and more likely horses with less than 5 starts, or no starts at 2 will win the Derby, it's simply a case of increased opportunity for it to happen.
The Dubai thing actually has some rational merit, i.e. it's really damn hard to run in a freaking desert and then ship around the world to win a 20 horse race in Kentucky. But, Mendelssohn appears to have a level of talent that no other Dubai shipper has ever possessed, so...there's that.
As you can maybe tell, the top two horses coming into this Derby, in my opinion at least, are Justify and Mendelssohn. They are horses with the aforementioned curses to overcome. They are also both potentially absolute superstars. It's unique to see a Derby field with two horses that could be this good. The only recent year I can think of that looked similar at all was 2015 where American Pharoah, Dortmund, Materiality, Frosted, and Carpe Diem all looked like really nice horses entering the race.
But, in 2015 you had five horses with big numbers. This year you really have only three...Justify (107 Beyer), Mendelssohn (106 Beyer...but in Dubai), and Bolt d'Oro (102 Beyer). Nothing else in the field has run a 100+ Beyer at 3. Only Justify, Bolt d'Oro, Magnum Moon, and Audible have been able to run two 95 Beyers. Everything else that is considered "fast" by this Derby's standard has only been "fast" once.
Now, Philip has already written a different version of most of what I just wrote. But, here's where I think we might disagree a bit. I don't think the other main contenders are on the same level as the top three. And, really, I don't think Bolt is on the level of the top two. I have issues fully buying into any of the other horses in this race as a win contender...super briefly on the other main options...
Good Magic - Was hard pressed to beat a really suspect field in the Blue Grass and hasn't run fast this year, I also don't think his third in the Fountain of Youth was a good third, he was under a ride the whole way.
Audible - He somehow won the Florida Derby by 3 lengths and didn't look impressive doing it. That seems crazy, but it's kind of a theme this year. He made up ground in the Florida Derby, but it wasn't with a quick turn of foot and an explosive move, it was more just grinding away as everything up front stopped.
Noble Indy and Vino Rosso - Essentially felt the same way as them I did watching Audible. They won preps while under pressure and never really looking particularly explosive.
Magnum Moon - Yet another "impressive" Pletcher prep winner. He won the Arkansas Derby by 4...but, again, he got a great trip, sat right on the rail, had an easy lead as they hit the stretch and then basically bolted to the right the whole stretch. Now, running erratically like that is TYPICALLY a sign of a tired horse or a distracted horse...neither of those options would bode well for a horse going longer in front of an 100K+ drunk people.
We'll get to other horses with a shot (spoiler...I don't think there really are any), but maybe we should talk pace a little bit? It seems almost too obvious this year, right? I'll let you take over here since this is getting long...
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