Derby 2017 - Post Mortem

27 hours later, and I'm still basking in the glow of our amazing handicapping prowess.  And by basking, I mean fully admitting that us catching a $0.50 trifecta was about 50/50 skill/luck.  So, a few thoughts on the race...

• Always Dreaming did about what we expected he could do, and he proved to me was the most talented horse in this field.  He sat very close to a blistering pace that cooked pace setter State of Honor and was able to hold off a fresh challenger with one of the luckiest trips I've seen in quite a while.  (More on that in a sec.)  He somehow validated our speed/pace figures in one observation, proving he had a high cruising speed and could finish a race of this caliber.  I fully expect him to be a heavy favorite in the Preakness, and I'm of the mind he's got a shot at the Triple Crown thanks in no small part to not a whole lot chasing him.
• Lookin at Lee was the recipient of one of the most incredibly lucky trips I can think of.  I was really, REALLY down on him since I didn't expect him to work a decent trip from the rail.  Generally, at the break, something bad happens to the rail horse... any horse breaks inward, and you're in trouble since you have to veer over a little given Churchill can't actually fit 20 horses across the whole track.  Well, when Thunder Snow spooked out the 2 hole, Lookin at Lee all the sudden had a clean run from the word go and worked a perfect rail-skimming ride the whole way around the track.  Given that and the fact that he ran a deceptively good race in Arkansas (all credit to David for picking up on that), it's not too shocking to see him run 2nd.  He's planning on coming back in the Preakness, and he could be an overlay in there.
• Battle of Midway ran a gutty race, none too surprising given his similar gutty effort in the Santa Anita Derby.  We left him in 3rd b/c you ALWAYS LEAVE CHEAP SPEED IN THIRD IN A TRIFECTA.  I think he's a good horse that could develop to be better down the line, but he ran his max effort here.
• Classic Empire is already getting some of the "rough trip" comments.  Anyone who came into the race thinking he was best more than likely still thinks he rates a great chance to knock off Always Dreaming in the Preakness. I am not in that camp, as I didn't see a great deal of trouble when I focused on him in one of my replay watches.  I think if he shows up in two weeks (he's nursing an eye irritation from the mud), he's a play-against.
• Practical Joke is going to be pointed to mile races.  Correct move.
• Irish War Cry fell apart badly in the stretch without much trouble to speak of.  Either we actually were right and his Wood Memorial wasn't much of an effort, or he's just one of those Jekyll/Hyde horses.

Looking ahead to the Preakness, I'm not seeing much of a reason to take a shot against Always Dreaming.  Only Lookin at Lee and Classic Empire are expected to wheel back from the Derby, with the possibility of Gunnevera and Girvin (WHY?  REST THE HORSE!).  Of the new shooters, Royal Mo strikes me as semi-intriguing given that he may have won the Santa Anita Derby had the rider not lost his whip late and the Derby efforts of Battle of Midway and Gormley (who also ran a sneaky solid race) validated the Santa Anita Derby as a worthwhile prep.