We have no idea if they're right?! OF COURSE THEY'RE RIGHT! Testing stuff is for losers, David. You know what America didn't test? Apollo rockets. And they made it to the freaking moon with the processing power of a solar-powered calculator!
On the 11th attempt. Wait, what happened on the first attempt?
Oh... OOOOOHHH.....
Well, that's not going to happen to us. Probably.
Anyway, I did some more research into the screwy numbers, and the results we're enlightening.
Let's start with Irish War Cry and his puzzling Wood Memorial number. Let's not forget the race before, which was the Grade 3 Excelsior. That race was won by a horse named Shut In. If you believe Beyers, Shut In ran one of the fastest route races in the last five years or so, running an eye-popping 119 Beyer. (For context, the fastest Triple Crown winner American Pharoah ever ran was a 120.) The race after the Wood Memorial was the Gazelle, a 3yo filly race and major prep for the Oaks. The winner, Miss Sky Warrior, ran a 94 Beyer. Her previous best was an 80. Now, that said, she did win the Gazelle by 13 lengths, but it was not a great field. Even with that previous best of only an 80, she was sent of as the 8/5 favorite.
My point? Two horses ran nearly 7-10 lengths faster then they ever had and one ran about as expected. Maybe those two didn't run that must faster than ever and the other (Irish War Cry) ran a bit slower than we thought. It's at least plausible. I'm buying Irish War Cry's Wood effort less and less.
Next, there's the odd pace figures for the Blue Grass. Keeneland doesn't run many races at 1-1/8 miles, so it's tough to guage pace here. But the day was odd to say the least. The only other two-turn race of the day, The Ashland stakes (another Oaks prep) saw an opening half mile of 49.4, nearly a full second slower than the Blue Grass. The Commonwealth Stakes, a 7 furlong G2 for older males, had an opening quarted of 22.97 seconds. For an older horse graded stakes sprint, that's about as slow as you can get. The Madison, a 7f G1 for older mares, was even slower in the open at 23 and change. Now, of course, I'd be remiss if I didn't mention a group of freaking maidens ran 21.8 seconds in their opening quarter a couple races earlier than all this slowness. Something weird was up all day, and the pace figures are just screwy. So I don't know if I buy the numbers totally at face value, but I do think everyone involved probably did go faster than they thought, confirming your thought there.
So, right now, all this tells me that McCraken and Always Dreaming look like the strongest keys, with Irish War Cry & Classic Empire as potential play-againsts. Post draw is later today, so it'll be nice to have some actual PPs in our hands to help confirm all of this.
As for strongest prep... You could make a bizarre case that it was the Sam F. Davis (McCraken, Tapwrit, State of Honor). Despite how screwy the race was, the Blue Grass had the most talent, but there's so little you can actually glean from that race. The only takeaway I have from the Blue Grass is that 2nd place finisher Practical Joke wants no part of two turns and should be pointed to sprint races going forward. It speaks to the strength of the Blue Grass that five horses are exiting that race into the Derby, and three of the five look very usable (and there will be people who make legitimate cases that all five are usable and I wouldn't exactly laugh in their faces). Stark contrast to the perennial strong Wood Memorial, which has exactly ONE horse exiting the race and running in the Derby.
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