Derby 2017 (1) - Well, We Can't Be As Wrong As Last Year

Here we go again David, another year in the endless hellish cycle of “Hey, the Derby!  20 horses going a distance they’ve never gone before in a field of absurd size!  Let’s throw THOUSANDS of dollars at that?!”  As usual, I’ll kick things off.  Every year I like to start with a recap of the previous year.  Last year, we had two prevailing thoughts:

1)      It was a bad group, which leads to unpredictable results and massive payouts.

2)      Nyquist was one of the worst Derby favorites we’ve ever seen.

So, we were right about the group being bad.  We were wrong about, well, everything else.  Not only did Nyquist crush the field, but the 2^nd choice ran 2^nd, 3^rd choice 3^rd, and 4^th choice 4^th, resulting in what has to be the smallest superfecta in Derby history.  I blame us entirely for the result.  Regardless, we actually ended up having a pretty good Triple Crown, as we were all over Exaggerator winning the Preakness and came about a nose short of a five-figure payout in the Belmont when Creator won the head bob over Destin.  Maybe we should just write about those races.

So far, I’ve been pretty uninspired with this three year old crop.  The preps that looked like they were going to be good wound up with puzzling results.  Too many horses in this group have run just total clunkers insofar that keying them feels like a bit of a coin flip.  I’m actually ok with this as nothing can crush my spirit more than being all-in on a horse, only to see them get a terrible post draw or whatever other innumerable disasters can occur in the days leading up to the race.

That lack of inspiration starts at the top with Classic Empire.  My prevailing thought all season has been that racing fans desperately want this horse to be the next big thing.  He checks all the boxes – champion 2yo, blue blood classic pedigree, Lexington royalty owner, top trainer.  He’s exactly what you’d want in a Derby runner.  The connections confidence is sky high, saying that he was only about 95% ready in his Arkansas Derby win.  I think more and more people are going to watch that Arkansas Derby, which is visually a much more impressive race then it translated to on paper, and tell themselves that 3/1 or 7-2 is a fair price on Classic Empire.

Now, unlike Nyquist, I do think Classic Empire rates a very good chance to win the race.  He should almost certainly be one of the favorites.  But I don’t feel like he’s an overwhelming favorite like California Chrome was back in 2014.  Slice it however you want, but his Breeder’s Cup Juvenile is still the most impressive race any horse in this crop has run.  However, that was six months ago.  That’s a lifetime ago for horses of this age.  A lot of people are still betting him off that race more than anything else.  The Arkansas Derby was a help in reinforcing that belief, but that’s the race people are really pointing to for him.  In the last five years, the Derby favorite has an incredible record of 5 starts, 4 wins, 1 second, with only Bodemeister managing to squander a six-length lead to I’ll Have Another as the blemish.  All of those horses – even the much maligned by me Nyquist – had a 3yo resume that included multiple prep wins or ludicrously fast races.  (Bodemeister is the only one without multiple 3yo prep victories – he’s also the only loser of the bunch.)

Conclusion: Classic Empire is a very good horse, but in no way deserving of favoritism in this race.

So who do I like?  Well, there’s plenty of time for that, but I’ll start with three horses for now.

Always Dreaming: Don’t like the favorite?  Go for the second choice I suppose!  Always Dreaming joined the Todd Pletcher barn after a couple okay 2yo starts, and Pletcher waited to run him until he turned 3.  So what’s he done since joining Pletcher?  Well, he first broke his maiden by 11-1/2 lengths, then he won a four-horse allowance race in a fashion that was much more akin to a public work, then he won the Florida Derby by five lengths with a 97 Beyer, three points faster than Classic Empire’s Arkansas Derby win.  I feel like, with the majority of the field, I know about how good they are.  We have no idea how good Always Dreaming is.  This horse could be a monster and we just haven’t seen him face any competition yet.  I’m a little worried he hasn’t run THAT fast yet, and that’s my only concern.

Irish War Cry: Sigh, how about the third choice?!  This looks like the type of horse we love to bet.  He’s fast, owning two of the three fastest Beyers this year in his wins in the Holy Bull (101 Beyer) and the Wood Memorial (also a 101).  The big issue is the race in between those two, the Fountain of Youth.  He just ran AWFUL.  What the hell happened there?  We still don’t know to this day, but whatever it was, they seemed to figure it out in the Wood.  Now, if you care about these things, Irish War Cry finished VERY slow in the Wood… I don’t know if it means much though.  I tend not to think about these things too hard.  Anyway, draw a line through the Fountain of Youth, he’s easily the most accomplished 3yo in this crop.

McCraken: Ugh.  These are the types of horses we NEVER bet: overhyped closers that are working up a storm in the morning and are definitely going to take way too much money.  However, sometimes pace makes the race.  And I can’t find a closer with anywhere close to the talent McCraken has.  The Blue Grass is definitely cause for concern, but we bet 31/1 winner Irap in there specifically because there was no pace to fire at on paper, and that mostly came to fruition.  McCraken sat a little closer than he liked I think, and getting his trip on Saturday should be in the cards.  Also, if it rains like it’s threatening to, he’s going to devour the mud with his pedigree.