If you're looking for any post we've made in relation to the Derby, we go you covered right here!
David - So It Begins
Phil - My Year With No Agenda
David - More Like Nomaha
Phil - A Marvel-ous Affair
Saturday, May 4, 2019
Thursday, May 2, 2019
My Derby Tears, I mean Tiers, and Some Oaks Picks
Bro, good for you doing quotes...but it's 10 pm on Thursday night and it's too late this year for me to go through the last four seasons of a tv show finding hilarious quotes for our reader (Hi again mom!). Plus if it was Big Bang Theory or Cincinnati Reds quotes mom wouldn't even get them.
So, instead, it's time I just do this old school and throw out my Derby Tiers.
Tier 4 AKA I don't like them, not at all. (post position order)
Gray Magician - More like gray slowician.
Plus Que Parfait - Named after a lame dessert I guess
Cutting Humor - Cutting isn't funny, and neither is this horse
Master Fencer - I don't think a second tier Japanese runner can win the Derby
Tier 3 AKA I don't like them, but I don't completely hate them. (post position order)
War of Will - Bad draw, awful last race, not particularly fast in his good races
Tax - Bad draw, dream set-up last, pedigree to run all day so maybe stumbles into third with a dream trip.
Vekoma - Don't buy him going 10 furlongs
Haikal - He's probably a tier 4 horse with his hoof issues, but I'll leave him here.
Long Range Toddy - Tier 4 in the slop, if the track comes up fast somehow he can maybe bounce back off the Arkansas Derby debacle
Spinoff - Philip like him some, but I just can't see it.
Country House - His maiden win is the only time he's looked good all year, has just been a total plodder in stakes races
Bodexpress - Probably my favorite of this group, but can't put a maiden any higher.
Tier 2 AKA Maybe there's a chance (order of preference last to first)
Tacitus - He's done nothing wrong. He won the Tampa Bay Derby and the Wood Memorial. He's gone from Mott's third best Derby shot, to his best Derby shot. His daddy won the Wood before finishing ninth in the Derby as the second choice, and I don't think the apple fell far from the tree.
Improbable - I am much less bullish on him than my brother is. I think he's Baffert's third best entry in this race and seriously question his ability to go 10 furlongs, oh and Country House is the best horse he's beaten.....
Roadster - Another of the Baffert trio. I think he's talented, but like Improbable, I don't think 10 furlongs is going to be his wheelhouse.
By My Standards - The talk of the backstretch with his AM workouts and easily the best horse out of the Louisiana Derby IMO. Serious pedigree questions, but have to use some.
Win Win Win - Tons of trouble last out in the Blue Grass, I think he was the best horse in there. He got hung super wide in the Tampa Bay Derby or he might've threatened Tacitus that day. He'll be a big price, he can hit the board.
Tier 1 AKA I'm tired and these are my picks (order of preference last to first)
Code of Honor - Quite simply, no horse in this field would have caught Maximum Security after he went a half mile in 48 and 4. Not a single damn one of them. And, I think CoH's Fountain of Youth is even better than it looks, he hit the lead early and kind of pulled himself up a bit. He's the best closer in this race, IMO. He's better than Tacitus, and I think he's better than Win Win Win. My only reservation is how quick the pace will be and if he will get much of a set-up.
Game Winner - I'm convinced this horse is Baffert's best chance at this year's Derby. He's bred to love the distance. Last out, he went way wide at Santa Anita or he probably beats Roadster there. He was hands down the best two-year-old in the country last year, talent is not an issue. Honestly, I'm not sure why you think Improbable possibly has more talent than Game Winner, at no point in Improbable's career has he been faster than Game Winner. Of my top three picks, Code of Honor needs a hot pace to win, Maximum Security needs a slower pace to win, with Game Winner it doesn't matter how the pace sets up.
Maximum Security - Regardless of my praises of Game Winner, Maximum Security is my top pick in this year's Derby. No horse has ever been within 3 1/2 lengths of him at the finish and he has the top two speed figures in the race...oh, and he's gonna be like the fifth or sixth choice. You can't let the fastest horse in the Derby go off sixth choice and not bet them. Yes, if Vekoma, War of Will, and Tax are all hell bent on making the lead and end up going 46 and 3, he'll almost certainly lose. But, I don't expect that to happen. I think he's going to offer the best value in the race.
With all that said, it doesn't seem like we're really on the same page this year (Outside of Maximum Security, somehow). That can't be a good thing. I still can't believe Improbable is your top pick...wow. The next couple days are gonna be interesting...
Oh, and since it's almost Friday, a few quick thoughts about the Oaks card, going to keep them quick.
1. Newspaperofrecord in the sixth race might be the most talented horse running at Churchill Downs this weekend, she could be an absolute superstar. Her two year old season was ridiculous. She should be a very short priced winner.
2. McKinzie is another likely winner, and another likely very short price in the seventh race.
3. A couple of more decently priced runners I think will be tough are Valdolobo, the 9 horse in race 4 if they're on the turf, and Queen of Beas, the 4 horse in race 5.
4. The Oaks is wide open. Horses like Choclate Kisses (20/1), Lady Apple (20/1), and Jeltrin (15/1) all have a shot at being close at the finish.
So, instead, it's time I just do this old school and throw out my Derby Tiers.
Tier 4 AKA I don't like them, not at all. (post position order)
Gray Magician - More like gray slowician.
Plus Que Parfait - Named after a lame dessert I guess
Cutting Humor - Cutting isn't funny, and neither is this horse
Master Fencer - I don't think a second tier Japanese runner can win the Derby
Tier 3 AKA I don't like them, but I don't completely hate them. (post position order)
War of Will - Bad draw, awful last race, not particularly fast in his good races
Tax - Bad draw, dream set-up last, pedigree to run all day so maybe stumbles into third with a dream trip.
Vekoma - Don't buy him going 10 furlongs
Haikal - He's probably a tier 4 horse with his hoof issues, but I'll leave him here.
Long Range Toddy - Tier 4 in the slop, if the track comes up fast somehow he can maybe bounce back off the Arkansas Derby debacle
Spinoff - Philip like him some, but I just can't see it.
Country House - His maiden win is the only time he's looked good all year, has just been a total plodder in stakes races
Bodexpress - Probably my favorite of this group, but can't put a maiden any higher.
Tier 2 AKA Maybe there's a chance (order of preference last to first)
Tacitus - He's done nothing wrong. He won the Tampa Bay Derby and the Wood Memorial. He's gone from Mott's third best Derby shot, to his best Derby shot. His daddy won the Wood before finishing ninth in the Derby as the second choice, and I don't think the apple fell far from the tree.
Improbable - I am much less bullish on him than my brother is. I think he's Baffert's third best entry in this race and seriously question his ability to go 10 furlongs, oh and Country House is the best horse he's beaten.....
Roadster - Another of the Baffert trio. I think he's talented, but like Improbable, I don't think 10 furlongs is going to be his wheelhouse.
By My Standards - The talk of the backstretch with his AM workouts and easily the best horse out of the Louisiana Derby IMO. Serious pedigree questions, but have to use some.
Win Win Win - Tons of trouble last out in the Blue Grass, I think he was the best horse in there. He got hung super wide in the Tampa Bay Derby or he might've threatened Tacitus that day. He'll be a big price, he can hit the board.
Tier 1 AKA I'm tired and these are my picks (order of preference last to first)
Code of Honor - Quite simply, no horse in this field would have caught Maximum Security after he went a half mile in 48 and 4. Not a single damn one of them. And, I think CoH's Fountain of Youth is even better than it looks, he hit the lead early and kind of pulled himself up a bit. He's the best closer in this race, IMO. He's better than Tacitus, and I think he's better than Win Win Win. My only reservation is how quick the pace will be and if he will get much of a set-up.
Game Winner - I'm convinced this horse is Baffert's best chance at this year's Derby. He's bred to love the distance. Last out, he went way wide at Santa Anita or he probably beats Roadster there. He was hands down the best two-year-old in the country last year, talent is not an issue. Honestly, I'm not sure why you think Improbable possibly has more talent than Game Winner, at no point in Improbable's career has he been faster than Game Winner. Of my top three picks, Code of Honor needs a hot pace to win, Maximum Security needs a slower pace to win, with Game Winner it doesn't matter how the pace sets up.
Maximum Security - Regardless of my praises of Game Winner, Maximum Security is my top pick in this year's Derby. No horse has ever been within 3 1/2 lengths of him at the finish and he has the top two speed figures in the race...oh, and he's gonna be like the fifth or sixth choice. You can't let the fastest horse in the Derby go off sixth choice and not bet them. Yes, if Vekoma, War of Will, and Tax are all hell bent on making the lead and end up going 46 and 3, he'll almost certainly lose. But, I don't expect that to happen. I think he's going to offer the best value in the race.
With all that said, it doesn't seem like we're really on the same page this year (Outside of Maximum Security, somehow). That can't be a good thing. I still can't believe Improbable is your top pick...wow. The next couple days are gonna be interesting...
Oh, and since it's almost Friday, a few quick thoughts about the Oaks card, going to keep them quick.
1. Newspaperofrecord in the sixth race might be the most talented horse running at Churchill Downs this weekend, she could be an absolute superstar. Her two year old season was ridiculous. She should be a very short priced winner.
2. McKinzie is another likely winner, and another likely very short price in the seventh race.
3. A couple of more decently priced runners I think will be tough are Valdolobo, the 9 horse in race 4 if they're on the turf, and Queen of Beas, the 4 horse in race 5.
4. The Oaks is wide open. Horses like Choclate Kisses (20/1), Lady Apple (20/1), and Jeltrin (15/1) all have a shot at being close at the finish.
2019 Derby - A Marvel-ous Affair
…. That was a pretty good burn on Improbable. Touche.
Despite the late start, we've already done a deep dive into pace, key questions, and... Other things maybe... So now it's time for the quote-en-ing! After your little crack about me seeing Endgame twice (which is true - the movie is so much damn fun), I'm opting to lean into it and use Marvel Cinematic Universe quotes to pair with each horse. Fun! (Is this a bit we shameless steal from Bill Simmons every year? You betcha!) As usual, I'll include my fair value odds in parentheses.
"I look around at us and you know what I see? Losers..... But not today. Today it's giving us something. It's giving us a chance." - Star-Lord
To this entire God forsaken field. By hook or by crook, one of these 20 (or 19 depending on Haikal's status) is going to be crown a Derby champion. God help us.
"Before we get started, does anyone want to get out?" - Captain America
To my "very little hope" 200/1 shots War of Will, Gray Magician, Plus Que Parfait, Master Fencer, Country House, and Bodexpress. I cannot forsee any of these horses hitting the board except maaaaaaybe Country House if the pace is just insane. As David alluded to though, I don't think that's going to happen with Omaha Beach out. I'm also throwing my lone 99/1 shot, Cutting Humor, in here as well.
"I don't recall killing your family. I doubt I'll remember killing you either." - Ronan The Accuser
I really cannot think of anything interesting to say about Haikal (33/1) or Long Range Toddy (33/1), a couple horses I doubt we'll remember being in this field.
"I can do this all day." - Captain America
I don't know if Win Win Win (33/1) has the talent to win the Derby, but you can bet he'll be advancing at the end of the race. Of all the deep DEEP closers, I think he's the best. He's the type that sneaks into the exacta/trifecta, so don't leave him off your exotics.
"Now, this is important. Once the battery is removed, everything is gonna slam into emergency mode. Once we have it, we gotta move quickly, so you definitely need to get that last. Or we could just get it first and improvise." - Rocket
I feel like Tax (24/1) had a decent plan and shot until he drew the two hole. The break is gonna determine if he has a shot. He'll be a great price, so I think we'll use him a little.
"I'm made of rocks, as you can see, but don't let that intimidate you. You don't need to be afraid, unless you're made of scissors! Just a little rock-paper-scissors joke for you!" - Korg
All we really know about Code of Honor (19/1) is that he can win when he has a crazy pace to fire at. I can say the same for half the closers in here. I know you like him, but he doesn't scare me.
"I do what he does, just slower." - Falcon
I don't see the logic in betting Roadster (9/1) when he looks like a poor man's Game Winner and figures to be similar odds. Yes, he beat Game Winner last out, but he had a perfect trip while Game Winner opted to go four wide on both turns.
"Dormammu, I've come to bargain" - Dr. Strange
Game Winner (8/1) just can't catch a break, running second in both his preps this year. First, he loses by a nose to Omaha Beach. Then he gets caught after Roadster has a perfect trip. It feels like he should get the W one of these times, but a repeat "close but no cigar" performance would not be shocking.
If any horse is gonna close on Saturday, I think it's Tacitus (7/1). He's had two solid setups to run into for sure. At this point though, he feels like one of the horses with the least questions, now being the only horse in the race with a two prep wins with one of those coming in the key final round of preps.
Ant-Man: My days of breaking into places and stealing shit are over. What do you want me to do?
Hank Pym: I want you to break into some place and steal some shit.
Like we've mentioned already, Maximum Security (7/1) may not need to think too hard beyond "just do what you did before and it might work again." Now, he won't get away with a :49 half mile, but does he have the talent to take a 1-1/2 length lead and a :47 half mile to Derby victory? Against this group, it wouldn't shock me.
"Anybody on our side hiding any shocking and fantastic abilities they'd like to disclose? I'm open to suggestions." - Iron Man
Despite your cracks, Improbable (5/1) is the only horse left in this race that could be a special horse. Both of his 2019 races are just bizarre, and if Omaha Beach wasn't in the Arkansas Derby, he wins that race by six lengths and is your heavy favorite.
Despite the late start, we've already done a deep dive into pace, key questions, and... Other things maybe... So now it's time for the quote-en-ing! After your little crack about me seeing Endgame twice (which is true - the movie is so much damn fun), I'm opting to lean into it and use Marvel Cinematic Universe quotes to pair with each horse. Fun! (Is this a bit we shameless steal from Bill Simmons every year? You betcha!) As usual, I'll include my fair value odds in parentheses.
"I look around at us and you know what I see? Losers..... But not today. Today it's giving us something. It's giving us a chance." - Star-Lord
To this entire God forsaken field. By hook or by crook, one of these 20 (or 19 depending on Haikal's status) is going to be crown a Derby champion. God help us.
"Before we get started, does anyone want to get out?" - Captain America
To my "very little hope" 200/1 shots War of Will, Gray Magician, Plus Que Parfait, Master Fencer, Country House, and Bodexpress. I cannot forsee any of these horses hitting the board except maaaaaaybe Country House if the pace is just insane. As David alluded to though, I don't think that's going to happen with Omaha Beach out. I'm also throwing my lone 99/1 shot, Cutting Humor, in here as well.
"I don't recall killing your family. I doubt I'll remember killing you either." - Ronan The Accuser
I really cannot think of anything interesting to say about Haikal (33/1) or Long Range Toddy (33/1), a couple horses I doubt we'll remember being in this field.
"I can do this all day." - Captain America
I don't know if Win Win Win (33/1) has the talent to win the Derby, but you can bet he'll be advancing at the end of the race. Of all the deep DEEP closers, I think he's the best. He's the type that sneaks into the exacta/trifecta, so don't leave him off your exotics.
"Now, this is important. Once the battery is removed, everything is gonna slam into emergency mode. Once we have it, we gotta move quickly, so you definitely need to get that last. Or we could just get it first and improvise." - Rocket
I feel like Tax (24/1) had a decent plan and shot until he drew the two hole. The break is gonna determine if he has a shot. He'll be a great price, so I think we'll use him a little.
"I'm made of rocks, as you can see, but don't let that intimidate you. You don't need to be afraid, unless you're made of scissors! Just a little rock-paper-scissors joke for you!" - Korg
All we really know about Code of Honor (19/1) is that he can win when he has a crazy pace to fire at. I can say the same for half the closers in here. I know you like him, but he doesn't scare me.
"Don't do anything I would do. And don't do anything I wouldn't do. There's a little gray area in there. That's where you operate." - Tony Stark
I'm putting both Spinoff (19/1) and By My Standards (15/1) here, as both look to sit similar trips, both are coming out of the Louisiana Derby, and both should probably figure into our bets somehow, but I haven't figured out yet.
"Just because something works doesn't mean it can't be improved" - Shuri
I do want to like Vekoma (15/1), who looks like he can sit a perfect trip... if it weren't for that insane stride of his down the lane winning the Blue Grass. Not sure he wants an extra furlong.
"Just because something works doesn't mean it can't be improved" - Shuri
I do want to like Vekoma (15/1), who looks like he can sit a perfect trip... if it weren't for that insane stride of his down the lane winning the Blue Grass. Not sure he wants an extra furlong.
"I do what he does, just slower." - Falcon
I don't see the logic in betting Roadster (9/1) when he looks like a poor man's Game Winner and figures to be similar odds. Yes, he beat Game Winner last out, but he had a perfect trip while Game Winner opted to go four wide on both turns.
"Dormammu, I've come to bargain" - Dr. Strange
Game Winner (8/1) just can't catch a break, running second in both his preps this year. First, he loses by a nose to Omaha Beach. Then he gets caught after Roadster has a perfect trip. It feels like he should get the W one of these times, but a repeat "close but no cigar" performance would not be shocking.
"On your left." - Captain America
If any horse is gonna close on Saturday, I think it's Tacitus (7/1). He's had two solid setups to run into for sure. At this point though, he feels like one of the horses with the least questions, now being the only horse in the race with a two prep wins with one of those coming in the key final round of preps.
Ant-Man: My days of breaking into places and stealing shit are over. What do you want me to do?
Hank Pym: I want you to break into some place and steal some shit.
Like we've mentioned already, Maximum Security (7/1) may not need to think too hard beyond "just do what you did before and it might work again." Now, he won't get away with a :49 half mile, but does he have the talent to take a 1-1/2 length lead and a :47 half mile to Derby victory? Against this group, it wouldn't shock me.
"Anybody on our side hiding any shocking and fantastic abilities they'd like to disclose? I'm open to suggestions." - Iron Man
Despite your cracks, Improbable (5/1) is the only horse left in this race that could be a special horse. Both of his 2019 races are just bizarre, and if Omaha Beach wasn't in the Arkansas Derby, he wins that race by six lengths and is your heavy favorite.
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