Derby 2017 - Post Mortem

27 hours later, and I'm still basking in the glow of our amazing handicapping prowess.  And by basking, I mean fully admitting that us catching a $0.50 trifecta was about 50/50 skill/luck.  So, a few thoughts on the race...

• Always Dreaming did about what we expected he could do, and he proved to me was the most talented horse in this field.  He sat very close to a blistering pace that cooked pace setter State of Honor and was able to hold off a fresh challenger with one of the luckiest trips I've seen in quite a while.  (More on that in a sec.)  He somehow validated our speed/pace figures in one observation, proving he had a high cruising speed and could finish a race of this caliber.  I fully expect him to be a heavy favorite in the Preakness, and I'm of the mind he's got a shot at the Triple Crown thanks in no small part to not a whole lot chasing him.
• Lookin at Lee was the recipient of one of the most incredibly lucky trips I can think of.  I was really, REALLY down on him since I didn't expect him to work a decent trip from the rail.  Generally, at the break, something bad happens to the rail horse... any horse breaks inward, and you're in trouble since you have to veer over a little given Churchill can't actually fit 20 horses across the whole track.  Well, when Thunder Snow spooked out the 2 hole, Lookin at Lee all the sudden had a clean run from the word go and worked a perfect rail-skimming ride the whole way around the track.  Given that and the fact that he ran a deceptively good race in Arkansas (all credit to David for picking up on that), it's not too shocking to see him run 2nd.  He's planning on coming back in the Preakness, and he could be an overlay in there.
• Battle of Midway ran a gutty race, none too surprising given his similar gutty effort in the Santa Anita Derby.  We left him in 3rd b/c you ALWAYS LEAVE CHEAP SPEED IN THIRD IN A TRIFECTA.  I think he's a good horse that could develop to be better down the line, but he ran his max effort here.
• Classic Empire is already getting some of the "rough trip" comments.  Anyone who came into the race thinking he was best more than likely still thinks he rates a great chance to knock off Always Dreaming in the Preakness. I am not in that camp, as I didn't see a great deal of trouble when I focused on him in one of my replay watches.  I think if he shows up in two weeks (he's nursing an eye irritation from the mud), he's a play-against.
• Practical Joke is going to be pointed to mile races.  Correct move.
• Irish War Cry fell apart badly in the stretch without much trouble to speak of.  Either we actually were right and his Wood Memorial wasn't much of an effort, or he's just one of those Jekyll/Hyde horses.

Looking ahead to the Preakness, I'm not seeing much of a reason to take a shot against Always Dreaming.  Only Lookin at Lee and Classic Empire are expected to wheel back from the Derby, with the possibility of Gunnevera and Girvin (WHY?  REST THE HORSE!).  Of the new shooters, Royal Mo strikes me as semi-intriguing given that he may have won the Santa Anita Derby had the rider not lost his whip late and the Derby efforts of Battle of Midway and Gormley (who also ran a sneaky solid race) validated the Santa Anita Derby as a worthwhile prep. 

Derby 2017 - Master Thread

If you're looking for our ramblings, here's everything bookmarked from start to finish.

Pt 1 - Well, We Can't Be as Wrong as Last Year

Pt. 2 - Who is the Best of the Worst?

Part 3 - Let's Do Some Data Mining!

Part 4 - Data Driven Decision Daking

Part 5 - What's up with the Wood Memorial and Blue Grass?

Part 6 - The More I Looke The More Confused I Become

Part 7 - Good News, Everyone! A Derby Field Rundown!

Part 8 - I Used 30 Rock Quotes....Because

Part 9 - Making Sense of the Nonsensical

Part 10 - Final Thoughts

Derby Discussion Final Thoughts

I'm left to close this baby out? So much pressure. Will I disappoint our reader? Oh, by the way, thanks for that mom. Haha, just kidding, not even our mom reads this.

Anyway, yes, I think we have more horses we feel comfortable tossing than usual. I'd tier them as follows right now using what I think and what I think you think:

Tier 1 - The Most Likely Winners: 

Irish War Cry - A horse we can't not respect, even though we kind of want to not respect him
Always Dreaming - We just bet horses like this. We don't pass on horses with this much potential. He seems like the one horse in here that could win by five.

Tier 2 - Horses We Really Like:

McCracken - For you
Tapwrit - For me
Irap - For.....I don't know....

Tier 3 - Horses We Kind of Like, But Shouldn't (or are Just Scared of)

State of Honor - He's lost to horses we like.
Classic Empire - We can't just not use him at all
Practical Joke - I mean at least I'm not forcing Lookin at Lee here

Tier 4 - Bottom of Exotics, But, We Won't Hit If They Win

Lookin At Lee - He'll be rolling late
Thunder Snow - We can't COMPLETELY toss the Dubai horse.
Hence - Seems the most likely to move up by Saturday for us
Untrapped -  I don't know, blinkers back off and Santana back up
Gunnevera -  Have to leave him in a little probably
Gormley - He's ok...

Tier 5 - The Rest

Fast and Accurate 
Girvin
Battle of Midway
Sonneteer
J Boys Echo
Patch

Basically, if one of our top two wins, we will hopefully have something. If Tapwrit or Irap wins I think we need to have something as well, they'll be prices. If any of the Tier 5 runners get second, we won't cash in the race. Basically we will key around our top 2, but will have some minor plays keyed around those tier 2 horses. A Tapwrit - Practical Joke - Gormley tri would be amazing to stumble into.

It's a pretty wide open year. The good news is we can't be much worse than last year! Happy Derby everyone!

Derby 2017 - Making Sense of the Nonsensical

Well David, that was enlightening.  You should really work that Dubya quote in every year.  I really thought you were going to attempt to talk me onto Thunder Snow.  So, to summarize our thoughts...

• I think we're going to end up keying Always Dreaming & Irish War Cry.  If IWC winds up way bigger odds than I expect (which wouldn't shock me), I could see us convincing ourselves to base all our bets on him.  And when he runs up the track, I'm going to claim I saw it coming.
• Looks like I'm going to force McCraken into a lot of our bets while you force Tapwrit in, which is fine.
• Irap is going to end up being the horse we shockingly use a ton b/c we can't come up with anything else to use a ton.
• Every year we end up liking one horse all the sudden for no reason whatsoever.  I'm going to bet right now that Hence is that horse.
• Looks like we're gonna stand pat on trying to beat Classic Empire.  That'll end well.
• The dumb horses we're going to use too much and I'm going to have token Oaks-Derby doubles with my dumb Oaks horse Ever So Clever are Practical Joke & State of Honor.  I don't think I totally agree with your PJ assessment, but he's got talent.
• I really think there are a lot of have-nots this year, and we agree on that for the most part.  Of that group though, I won't be totally surprised if we talk ourselves into Untrapped a little.

David, close us out.

I Used 30 Rock Quotes...Because

I'm gonna be really, painfully honest here...I'm kind of phoning this shit in. We started on this later than usual, and I have too much handicapping to do to spend more than the three hours I've already spent trying to find the right show to do quotes from.

We've used, Game of Thrones, It's Always Sunny, Silicon Valley, and Arrested Development. Seinfeld, for all it's quotiness, isn't good for this. The Office is a possibility, but I thought of that after already finding some 30 Rock quotes...so, I'm using 30 Rock. This isn't going to be great. It's going to be like this year's Derby, or my existence in general, not very inspiring.

So, now that I've set the bar super high, I might as well get started....

"My mom used to send me articles about how older virgins are considered good luck in Mexico." —Liz

This had to be used on the one horse in the field that has never won a race...Sonneteer. Maybe he would fare better in Mexico?? And, seriously, what is a sonneteer anyway? A person who reads sonnets? Who are the ad wizards that came up with this one?


"For every orphan Annie, there's a 30-year-old Russian dwarf who's just pretending to be a child, according to a movie that I watched part of." —Liz

This one gets multiple horses attributed to it. The horses I consider to be nothing more than dwarf's pretending to be Derby horses. I'm looking at you Fast and Accurate, Untrapped, and J Boys Echo. I consider you to be the worst horses in the Derby. You should be ashamed.

But don't you miss rubbing my foot back into the shape of a foot?

– Tracy and Kenneth

This is a cheap joke at Girvin's expense. He has bad feet. Get it? 

"Most of that time has been spent trying to come up with a hip, edgy name that would appeal to the marketing holy trinity: college students, the morbidly obese, and homosexuals." —Jack

A lot of people know about Patch because he has a hip name and a cool story. It's a marketing dream, "A one eyed horse named Patch, how clever!" But, what you may not know about Patch is that he's not very good at running fast around a track.

"There's an old saying in Tennessee, I know it's in Texas, it's probably in Tennessee that says: Fool me once, shame on....shame on you. Fool me, ya can't get fooled again." - George W Bush

Oh, what, I'm not playing by the rules because I dropped an epic W quote in here? Who are YOU to tell ME about the freaking rules. I WRITE THE DAMN RULES! Oh yeah, this is applied to Thunder Snow. Sure, I've bet 8-10 horses shipping from Dubai to the Derby, and they've all been awful....but, ya can't get fooled again.....although maybe they're due....

I believe that the moon does not exist. I believe that vampires are the world's greatest golfers, but their curse is they never get a chance to prove it. I believe that there are 31 letters in the white alphabet. Wait...what was the question – Tracy

Yeah, I just picked a confusing quote to represent Hence and Gormley. I have no idea what to think of these two. I'm vacillating between wanting to use them somewhat heavily and tossing them completely. And, yes, I knew the word vacillating without looking it up....I did have to look up how to spell it though. In case you don't know the meaning, and were not able to infer it from it's use here, it means to cover something in vaseline.

The founding fathers never expected the poor to live past their 40s. – Jack

And, like those founding fathers, most people don't expect Battle of Midway or State of Honor to last through the opening six furlongs. I tend to agree on Battle of Midway, but State of Honor is a little intriguing.

"Affirmative action was designed to keep women and minorities in competition with each other to distract us while white dudes inject AIDS into our chicken nuggets." —Tracy

Kind of like how Gunnevera's solid effort in the Fountain of Youth is just there to distract us from the fact that he isn't very good.

"I do not want to disappoint my Japanese public. Especially Godzilla. I'm just kidding, I know he doesn't care what humans do." – Tracy

This is kind of how I feel, Classic Empire feels, about Philip and I continually saying we don't like him on this blog. We're just a pair of stupid little humans taking shots at Godzilla. He certainly doesn't care, but I still don't think he's that good.

"Look how Greenzo's testing! They love him in every demographic—colored people, broads, fairies, commies. Gosh, we gotta update these forms." —Jack

This is how I feel about McCracken. It seems like everyone I talk to likes him. I honestly think he could end up favored on Saturday, and I really don't buy him at that price. He's a really nice horse, but he shouldn't be favored. I'd make him fifth or sixth choice, tops.

"You're Liz Lemon, damn it. In certain lights, you're an 8! Using East Coast, over-35 standards, excluding Miami." – Jack

This sounds an awful lot like me trying to convince myself Lookin At Lee has a shot at a piece...I think he has a shot at running ok Saturday.

"Stop eating people's old French fries, pigeon! Have some self respect! Don't you know you can fly?" —Tracy

Irap and Practical Joke get to share my favorite quote from 30 Rock. I think both of these horses are better than they've been so far. Irap hasn't wanted to switch leads in his last couple starts. Practical Joke has had trouble and made big middle moves. Both of them can fly, if they just realize it. I should write inspirational post cards. Is there a big market for inspirational post cards?

Liz:Kenneth, why did you bet that terrible hand?

Kenneth:Why? Because I believe life is for the living. I believe in taking risks and biting off more than you can chew. And also, people were yelling and I got confused about the rules.

This is basically a perfect quote for me and Tapwrit. He's in my top three. I know it's probably stupid, but he's the stupid horse I've started to fall for this dumb year. I think he was better than McCracken in the Sam F Davis, if he had gotten more room earlier I think he gets the win there. His Blue Grass was abysmal, but I'm willing to forgive him. It's dumb, but he's a top 4 horse for me for sure.

"Making it through a full twenty-four hours without making a single misstep is called Reaganing. The only other people who've ever done it? Lee Iacocca, Jack Welch, and—no judgment—Saddam Hussein." – Jack

Always Dreaming has done nothing wrong in his last few starts. He's been Reaganing his whole Derby prep trail, winning easily and with class. He's a regular Saddam. He'll be tough to beat.

"You know how the media are. They wait for a mistake and that's all you are. It happened to Hitler. No one ever talks about his paintings." – Jack

I've always said there's one rule to writing a Derby blog, always include a good Hitler joke. It's what the people want. Irish War Cry was excellent in the Holy Bull and the Wood Memorial. He won them both impressively and neither was ever in doubt. But, my God was he awful in the Fountain of Youth, just one mistake, and it's cost him Derby favoritism. If he doesn't run in that race we are looking at a 2/1 Derby favorite and people are talking potential Triple Crown horse. Instead, he's probably going to be third or fourth choice.

OK, we've rambled a lot. Oaks Day is almost on us. We need to start wrapping up.

Derby 2017 - Good News, Everyone! A Derby Field Rundown!

I'm not going to even bother responding to your ramblings at the start.  That last post reads as the disorganized thoughts of a broken man.  But...

Now that the posts are drawn and past performances are out, let's run down the field from worst to first!  As per usual, I'm stealing Bill Simmons fantastic bit of pairing a quote with a horse, and this year, I'm using Futurama quotes.  How we've never used Futurama before blows my mind.  As usual, with each horse, I'll include what I think their fair odds are in the race.  So, without further ado...

Bender: Not enough room? My place is two cubic meters, and we only take up 1.5 cubic meters. We've got room for a whole 'nother two thirds of a person!

Poor Lookin at Lee (199/1), who already was going to have a hard enough time, draws the rail.  Even good horses run bad from the rail in the Derby.  I'm assuming he'll get a horrific trip, be crowded early, and maybe run like 13th or something.

Kif: Well, sir, I'm a little nervous about meeting her parents.
Zapp Brannigan: Of course you are. You're meek and uninteresting.

There's nothing worth discussing on Fast and Accurate (199/1) other than that he's a horse who exists and is running along with 19 other horses.

[Zoidberg is unsuccessful in attracting a mate]
Leela: Why is Zoidberg the only one still alone?
Bender: Because he's a loser, that's why. He's the lobster equivalent of Fry.
Fry: Hey, I can have any girl I want anytime I want! I'm just too busy.
[He plays with a yo-yo and the string gets tangled. He snarls and starts to untie it.]

Sonneteer (199/1) is the field's lone maiden (horse who has never won a race).  He's gonna stay that way more than likely.

Leela: After all this time, somebody else with one eye... who ISN'T a clumsy carpenter or a kid with a BB gun.

I had to make a one-eyed joke about Patch (199/1), right?

Amy: Leela's gonna kill me.
Bender: No, she'll probably make me do it.

Battle of Midway (99/1) seems to have one purpose in the race - set a stupid fast pace and run the hopes of anything near the lead to have a shot.  I don't know if he's actually that fast, but the Derby's pace is always 1-2 seconds faster than I expect, and I imagine Battle of Midway will have something to do with it.

Glab: I can think of no better place for this centre of diplomacy than here in orbit around the Neutral Planet. What are your thoughts on this momentous occasion, Your Neutralness?
Neutral President: I have no strong feelings one way or the other.

This is about how I feel about Untrapped (66/1).  I could be talked into using him or tossing him completely.

Professor Farnsworth: Who are those horrible orange creatures over there?
Glurmo: Why those are the Grunka-Lunkas. They work here in the Slurm factory.
Professor Farnsworth: Tell them I hate them.

I just do not buy into J Boy's Echo (66/1) at all.  I'm not sure his Gotham is as fast as Beyer has it and there's a handful of talented closers in here.  Not seeing it.

Harold Zoid: So, you want to be a comedian, is it?
Dr. Zoidberg: It's my life long dream.
Harold Zoid: Well, that dream dies now! You're unfunny and untalented. That's why you're perfect for drama.

Every year, there's a horse that runs in the Derby that is destined to either be a great sprinter or turf horse.  Practical Joke (49/1) is this year's edition.  He just hung so badly in the Blue Grass and I don't think he wants any part of two turns ultimately.  He should be running on the undercard in the Pat Day Mile.

George Foreman: As an interesting side note, as a head without a body, I envy the dead.
Rich Little (impersonating Howard Cosell): No argument here.

There's one horse every year that runs when they're over the top and should take some time off.  Girvin (40/1) looks like this year's edition.  With all the rumors David alluded to of foot issues, I'm not touching him with a 20 ft pole.

Fry: Don't listen to them, Leela. People said I was dumb, but I proved them!

Thunder Snow (27/1) is getting a little more attention than your typical Godolphin import from Dubai, and I don't get it.  He didn't run particularly fast winning the UAE Derby (Beyer had it at an estimated 94) and he doesn't look to me like a horse yearning for even more distance.  I'm done being the person that talks myself into the Dubai horse whenever they show up.

Prof. Farnsworth: Nothing is impossible! Not if you can imagine it. That's what being a scientist is all about!
Cubert Farnsworth: No, that's what being a magical elf is all about!

I can see a weird world where State of Honor (24/1) sneaks away and wires this field, but it's very unlikely.  I think the horse has talent though, and I'll be using him in exotics.  Given that I'm a fan of basically every horse that's beat him this year, I could see him hanging on for 3rd.

Fry: It's just like the story of the grasshopper and the octopus. All year long, the grasshopper kept burying acorns for winter, while the octopus mooched off his girlfriend and watched TV. But then the winter came, and the grasshopper died, and the octopus ate all his acorns. Also he got a race car. Is any of this getting through to you?

I don't quite know what to make of Hence (19/1).  On paper, he's run one good race in the Sunland Derby, and that race appeared to be the result of an incredible pace setup.  However, looking at the day, that's just how Sunland plays it seems, and the race is pretty normal by our pace figures.  Is he just finally getting good?  Tough to tell.

Fry: Leela, there's something I've wanted to tell you for a long time but every time I try I get nervous and my mouth feels like it's stuffed with peanut butter, even when it's not.
Leela: What is it? Is it about Bender?
Fry: No, it's about you and me.
Leela: And Bender?
Fry: Bender's not involved. Leela ... I love you.
Leela: You do?
Fry: Yes. But it's only recently that I've been able to articulate my thoughts. I love you, Leela, and I always have.
Leela: Fry, that's the sweetest, most wonderful-- Wait, "recently?" Like since you ate that toilet sandwich?
Fry: Yeah! I don't know why but my life really turned around that day.

I'm not sure why Irap (19/1) decided to pick the most loaded-with-talent prep to be the first win of his career, but it doesn't totally surprise me.  I bet him there and in the Robert B. Lewis back in February.  I think he's got some talent and just finally put it together.  I can't get it out of my head how much he was begging Practical Joke to run by him that day though.

Fry: Fear not. I shall assist ye.
Hermes: Robots don't say "ye"!
Fry: Relax, mammal. My robotic software shall meet your calculatory needs. What is the meaning of this symbol?
Hermes: That's a plus sign, ya pointy-haired loony! Quit thinking you're a robot!
Fry: I'll show ye...

I don't know why I can't like Gunnevera (19/1) more than I do.  He looks like a Derby contender, but something's missing.  His Fountain of Youth win was a great effort, but once Irish War crapped the bed, there wasn't a whole lot in that field.  I think you have to use him for the price he's going to be, but it's tough to take him seriously as a main contender.

Prof. Farnsworth: Doomsday device? Ah, now the ball's in Farnsworth's court!

As the rain continues to pour here with it looking like it won't stop between now and Saturday, we may need to take Gormley (15/1) a bit more seriously.  His win in the Sham stakes back in January came over a sloppy surface and was one of the more impressive preps this season.  I'm a little worried after his meh Santa Anita Derby win that his connections think he's a closer now when he probably isn't.  It wouldn't shock me if he made a good showing in the slop.

Dwight: You don't wanna miss the unveiling of our new company, do you?
Hermes: Company? [He laughs.] How cute! What will you be pedalling? Lemonade? Shoe shines? Cootie insurance?
Farnsworth: Perhaps they've constructed a teddy bear hospital!
[They laugh]
Cubert: Actually, we're starting a competing delivery company.
[He pulls the sheet off to reveal a red "Awesome Express" logo. Hermes and Farnsworth look at each other and stand up]
Hermes: Welcome to the world of business.
[He and Farnsworth kick the logo and smash it down]

I like Tapwrit (15/1) b/c I like McCraken (who I'll get to later), but it's hard to see Tapwrit as anything more than a poor man's McCraken.  They've raced twice, they run similarly, and McCraken has beaten him soundly both times.  That said, I like McCraken for the same reasons I like Tapwrit, and I think he has to be used at his 20/1 ML.

Fry: I'm Santa Claus!
Hermes: No, I'm Santa Claus!
Amy: We're also Santa Claus!
Dr. Zoidberg: [with a heavenly aura around him] And I'm his friend, Jesus.
Mayor: You guys aren't Santa! You're not even robots. How dare you lie in front of Jesus!

Maybe my favorite moment in Futurama history is reserved for our morning line favorite, Classic Empire (11/1).  He has the resume of favorite, but something about him just feels off.  He's a bit of a headcase, he isn't particularly fast, and I'm not even sure his Juvenile is that fast.  I've soured on him as the week progresses, but I have to admit that he probably needs to be kept in.

Evil Lincoln: Real holographic simulated Evil Lincoln is BACK!!!

I know there's a lot of reasons to knock McCraken (6/1), but if the pace gets hot and the track comes up sloppy, he's going to be real damn tough in here.  The horse had done no wrong until his last race, where he came in nowhere near 100% and just ran a bizarre race (along with 3/4ths of the field).

Bender: So do you know I'm going to do something before I do it?
God Entity: Yes.
Bender: What if I do something else?
God Entity: Then I don't know that.

A perfect quote for Irish War Cry (5/1), who feels like the crux of this whole thing.  He could be great, he could be a fraud.  I'm erring on the side of believing he's good though b/c, to your point earlier, we really don't know how good our speed figures are.

Fry: What's so wonderful about Leela being normal? The rest of us aren't normal and that's what makes us great. Like Dr. Zoidberg: He's a weird monster who smells like he eats garbage and does. Zoidberg: Damn right!
Fry: The Professor's a senile, amoral crackpot.
[Farnsworth blubbers and waves.]
Fry: Hermes is a Rastafarian accountant.
Hermes: Tally me banana.
Fry: Amy's a klutz from Mars.
[Amy drops the glass she is drinking from and it smashes.]
Amy: Sploops!
Farnsworth: And, Fry, you've got that brain thing.
Fry: I already did! So, Leela, do you wanna be like us? Or do you wanna be like Adlai with no severe mental or social problems whatsoever?
Leela: That's the dumbest question I ever heard!

This remains how I feel about Always Dreaming (9/2).  I just don't see a knock on the horse after his Florida Derby, and there's serious knocks on every horse in this field.  I always say the most talented horse in the Derby finds his or her way into the trifecta.  That feels like Always Dreaming this year, for several reasons I've already spelled out.

And now, let's end with a bonus quote...

Bender: Game's over, losers! I have all the money!! Compare your lives to mine and then kill yourselves!

This won't be us, but I'd like it to be... maybe.

The More I Look The More Confused I Become

Ok...so, let me get this straight...you're now not considering Irish War Cry a major contender off of Speed figures that we've just started using and are not super clear on how great they are? There's a thin line between genius and stupidity, a line we straddle every year.

The more I look at the race the more muddled it becomes. It's just so hard for me to be confident about any of these horses. Classic Empire seems slow for a favorite and missed a lot of training this year, partially because he refused to train a few times.

Irish War Cry is apparently not as good on our new figures as we hoped, and it's making us question how good the Wood really was.

McCracken is another one that missed time, had setbacks, and had a lousy final prep...sure, we can rationalize that effort, but should we?

Always Dreaming is the horse that COULD be anything...but, I always get nervous trusting big winning margins and not super fast speed figures. Plus, distance is kind of an issue maybe?

Girvin basically has three feet, and if this wasn't the Kentucky Derby he'd probably be getting a few weeks rest.

The good news is that I haven't talked myself into loving some terrible horse this year.....yet. It's going to happen though. It has to happen. I don't love any of these favorites, how can I not talk myself into some longshot that will end up 16th?

I suggest we get to some funny comparisons...I know you're excited for that.

Derby 2017 - What's Up with the Wood Memorial and Blue Grass?

We have no idea if they're right?!  OF COURSE THEY'RE RIGHT!  Testing stuff is for losers, David.  You know what America didn't test?  Apollo rockets.  And they made it to the freaking moon with the processing power of a solar-powered calculator! 

On the 11th attempt.  Wait, what happened on the first attempt?

Oh... OOOOOHHH.....

Well, that's not going to happen to us.  Probably.

Anyway, I did some more research into the screwy numbers, and the results we're enlightening.

Let's start with Irish War Cry and his puzzling Wood Memorial number.  Let's not forget the race before, which was the Grade 3 Excelsior.  That race was won by a horse named Shut In.  If you believe Beyers, Shut In ran one of the fastest route races in the last five years or so, running an eye-popping 119 Beyer.  (For context, the fastest Triple Crown winner American Pharoah ever ran was a 120.)  The race after the Wood Memorial was the Gazelle, a 3yo filly race and major prep for the Oaks.  The winner, Miss Sky Warrior, ran a 94 Beyer.  Her previous best was an 80.  Now, that said, she did win the Gazelle by 13 lengths, but it was not a great field.  Even with that previous best of only an 80, she was sent of as the 8/5 favorite.

My point?  Two horses ran nearly 7-10 lengths faster then they ever had and one ran about as expected.  Maybe those two didn't run that must faster than ever and the other (Irish War Cry) ran a bit slower than we thought.  It's at least plausible.  I'm buying Irish War Cry's Wood effort less and less.

Next, there's the odd pace figures for the Blue Grass.  Keeneland doesn't run many races at 1-1/8 miles, so it's tough to guage pace here.  But the day was odd to say the least.  The only other two-turn race of the day, The Ashland stakes (another Oaks prep) saw an opening half mile of 49.4, nearly a full second slower than the Blue Grass.  The Commonwealth Stakes, a 7 furlong G2 for older males, had an opening quarted of 22.97 seconds.  For an older horse graded stakes sprint, that's about as slow as you can get.  The Madison, a 7f G1 for older mares, was even slower in the open at 23 and change.  Now, of course, I'd be remiss if I didn't mention a group of freaking maidens ran 21.8 seconds in their opening quarter a couple races earlier than all this slowness.  Something weird was up all day, and the pace figures are just screwy.  So I don't know if I buy the numbers totally at face value, but I do think everyone involved probably did go faster than they thought, confirming your thought there.

So, right now, all this tells me that McCraken and Always Dreaming look like the strongest keys, with Irish War Cry & Classic Empire as potential play-againsts.  Post draw is later today, so it'll be nice to have some actual PPs in our hands to help confirm all of this.

As for strongest prep... You could make a bizarre case that it was the Sam F. Davis (McCraken, Tapwrit, State of Honor).  Despite how screwy the race was, the Blue Grass had the most talent, but there's so little you can actually glean from that race.  The only takeaway I have from the Blue Grass is that 2nd place finisher Practical Joke wants no part of two turns and should be pointed to sprint races going forward.  It speaks to the strength of the Blue Grass that five horses are exiting that race into the Derby, and three of the five look very usable (and there will be people who make legitimate cases that all five are usable and I wouldn't exactly laugh in their faces).  Stark contrast to the perennial strong Wood Memorial, which has exactly ONE horse exiting the race and running in the Derby.

Data Driven Decision Daking

Ahhhh yes, for the first time in the history of the Kentucky Derby, we have our own pace and speed figures to pore over. There's two main points here:

1. If they're right, we are basically the only people in the world with them
2. We have no idea if they're right

These numbers are definitely interesting to look at. But, we are scratching the surface of the surface of the surface in regards to understanding their strengths, weaknesses, biases or lack thereof, etc.

But, I have to defer to my brother on these matters. He is, after all, the math wizard in the family. I, meanwhile, do not possess wizardry of any sort. The biggest takeaway I had, which you already mentioned, were the numbers on Classic Empire. In this context his Juvenile is still impressive, but maybe not quite as impressive. He still ran a big pace figure in the Juvenile to match a solid speed figure...but, he's well below some others on speed figures in this race...I definitely don't think we'll be using him as a key horse, but there's also a chance he isn't a second tier horse?

Irish War Cry's numbers are a bit troubling as well. His Holy Bull was clearly great, but his big number was earned on the lead. He looked good stalking in the Wood, but maybe he's not really as good sitting off of rivals?

McCracken's last race is crazy as well. Suddenly jumps to a huge new pace figure and doesn't fire at all. Did they just have him way to close to the pace while he wants to be a one run closer? The Blue Grass did look paceless on paper, maybe the jocks just went way faster than expected?

Yeah, State of Honor certainly seems more intriguing in this context. He's a weird horse. They put the blinkers on for the two races at Tampa when he set really hot fractions. Took them off last time when he tried to sit behind Always Dreaming. He has solid pace and speed figures. Tough horse to gauge.

The real standout on these things is just how screwy the Blue Grass was as a prep. Every horse coming out of it ran the fastest pace figure of their careers in that race. The two that ran way faster than usual, Tapwrit and McCracken, both came up empty late. Really feels like a race to just draw a line through for the two.

Speaking of preps...was there a good prep this year? In the past few years California horses have been tough, but there's nothing from California to trust this year, right? Do we think Florida was the home to the best runners this winter? Seems like Fair Grounds was lousy, Oaklawn seems to be worse than usual, but the Gulfstream preps seem pretty strong...

Derby 2017 - Let's Do Some Data Mining!

I thought about including Tapwrit in my list, but my two issues with him were the relatively easy trips he got in his two Tampa races and the fact that he's a pretty clear 0-2 against McCraken.  That being said, if you could be convinced to like McCraken, using Tapwrit as a main play around him isn't a terrible strategy.  Assuming McCraken is #1 gives Tapwrit a nice claim at #2.

Before we go any further, let's really confuse the crap out of the bulk of our readership and do some data diving!  It's like dumpster diving, only less useful!  Anyway, there's a long and painful story that goes with this, but the punchline is that I have a crapload of data, and I've converted it into a database with my own pace and speed figures.  And I'm going to share it free of charge b/c I'm a super nice guy...

2017 Derby Data

This file has two tabs.  The first is a summary of every prep race - who won, where they were early in the race, their speed figure (semi-home grown in our data), who was on the lead early, and their pace figure (also semi-home grown).  The second is each of the perspective 20 horses' North American race record. (I say North American b/c one of the 20, Thunder Snow, has not raced in North America.)

So, what can we glean from this?  A few things jump out at me...

• Always Dreaming has the fastest speed figure in our data and one of the fastest pace figures too in the Florida Derby. Once again, we may not have any idea how good this horse is.
• Besides Always Dreaming, I'm not sure we've seen McCraken's best yet either.
• I was worried the pace was going to be very hot in this race, and I'm not so sure anymore.  There's a couple horses that are fast early, but nothing sticks out as ludicrous.  State of Honor looks like your one of your two clear early leaders (with Battle of Midway), and he's got more talent in our numbers than the Beyers published in the Daily Racing Form.  Not to delve too much into strategy now, but he could be a sneaky play to fill out trifectas and superfectas.
• Classic Empire doesn't leap off the page, and it makes me wonder if his Breeder's Cup effort is a bit overrated given that we don't have it particularly fast.
• I mentioned before that Irish War Cry seemed to figure out his issues in the Wood Memorial, yet we have it as the slowest of the final prep races, a stark contrast from Beyer, who has it fastest.  We may need to delve into Wood Memorial Day a little more to understand what's going on here.  Aqueduct can be an odd track given that it's situated on Jamaica Bay and heavy winds can play a factor in times there.
• Likewise, the Blue Grass's pace figures look odd, with horses like McCraken, Tapwrit, and J Boys Echo running much faster pace numbers then they ever had.  The race was run a bit oddly, but again, something that may merit more research.

Any thoughts on your end on our data adventure?

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Who is the Best of the Worst?

I love that you open by saying how there's no big favorite and it's wide open....and then talk about the four favorites.....But, yeah, this looks like a bad group.

Yeah, last year we thought the Derby was wide open...and yes, we were as wrong as we possibly could have been. The stat about four of the last five Derby's being won by favorites is really freaking incredible. For our not as racing obsessed friends, favorites win thoroughbred races around 30-ish% of the time. Average thoroughbred races have 7-8 horses. The Derby is a 20 horse crapshoot of a race filled with young horses, none of which have ever raced at the 1 1/4 mile distance or in a race with more than 10-12 runners. In other words, it is the exact type of race you would expect the favorite to RARELY win. And, you would have been right...for a while. It wasn't that long ago that longshots like Charismatic, War Emblem, Giacomo, and freaking Mine That Bird were winning the Derby at big prices.

But, at the end of the day, what happened last year in the Derby doesn't matter. None of them do. Way too many stupid people try to take results of this extremely small sample size and find meaning. Yes, favorites have dominated the past five years, but that is just as meaningless as the streak of years without a favorite winning. But, I still think the Derby is the type of race that is built to have crazy results, and this field looks like a group so bad that anything can happen.

With that said, looking through this field, I'm not finding much that inspires me. I need to re-watch all the preps today and see if that will help me at all, but, wow, just not a very impressive group. Remember a few years ago when having a few triple digit Beyers was almost a prerequisite to have a chance in the Derby? Now we're staring down a Derby field with THREE horses that have cracked that 100 barrier. One of them only did so at two (Classic Empire). And one of them, J Boys Echo, has never run above a 90 in any other start...which makes me strongly question the validity of the 102 he got in the Gotham.

As for the third horse that has cracked 100......I have a feeling that by Saturday we will have completely talked ourselves into Irish War Cry. The top two Beyers in the field at 3 (a pair of 101's), a trainer (Graham Motion) that can get a horse ready for a big race, won two major preps, bred to be a two turn horse, tactical speed, and probably ends up third or fourth choice? We probably can't pass on a horse like that, right?

The other intriguing one to me at first blush is Tapwrit. He's a son of Tapit which means distance shouldn't be a problem, yeah, I know, we always say pedigree is overrated. He ran AWFUL last out in the Blue Grass, but it was a weird race and he was unprepared at the start. Before that he looked great winning the Tampa Bay Derby. He's not a need the lead type, but he doesn't need to be too far back. Pletcher and Jose Espinoza are as good a combo as you'll find...at a price he can be a factor, right?

It's definitely a year where you're left trying to make cases for horses and not so much against horses. They all look pretty bad, they all have real flaws, they all have questions to answer. I can't wait for this Classic Empire - Always Dreaming exacta.

Derby 2017 (1) - Well, We Can't Be As Wrong As Last Year

Here we go again David, another year in the endless hellish cycle of “Hey, the Derby!  20 horses going a distance they’ve never gone before in a field of absurd size!  Let’s throw THOUSANDS of dollars at that?!”  As usual, I’ll kick things off.  Every year I like to start with a recap of the previous year.  Last year, we had two prevailing thoughts:

1)      It was a bad group, which leads to unpredictable results and massive payouts.

2)      Nyquist was one of the worst Derby favorites we’ve ever seen.

So, we were right about the group being bad.  We were wrong about, well, everything else.  Not only did Nyquist crush the field, but the 2^nd choice ran 2^nd, 3^rd choice 3^rd, and 4^th choice 4^th, resulting in what has to be the smallest superfecta in Derby history.  I blame us entirely for the result.  Regardless, we actually ended up having a pretty good Triple Crown, as we were all over Exaggerator winning the Preakness and came about a nose short of a five-figure payout in the Belmont when Creator won the head bob over Destin.  Maybe we should just write about those races.

So far, I’ve been pretty uninspired with this three year old crop.  The preps that looked like they were going to be good wound up with puzzling results.  Too many horses in this group have run just total clunkers insofar that keying them feels like a bit of a coin flip.  I’m actually ok with this as nothing can crush my spirit more than being all-in on a horse, only to see them get a terrible post draw or whatever other innumerable disasters can occur in the days leading up to the race.

That lack of inspiration starts at the top with Classic Empire.  My prevailing thought all season has been that racing fans desperately want this horse to be the next big thing.  He checks all the boxes – champion 2yo, blue blood classic pedigree, Lexington royalty owner, top trainer.  He’s exactly what you’d want in a Derby runner.  The connections confidence is sky high, saying that he was only about 95% ready in his Arkansas Derby win.  I think more and more people are going to watch that Arkansas Derby, which is visually a much more impressive race then it translated to on paper, and tell themselves that 3/1 or 7-2 is a fair price on Classic Empire.

Now, unlike Nyquist, I do think Classic Empire rates a very good chance to win the race.  He should almost certainly be one of the favorites.  But I don’t feel like he’s an overwhelming favorite like California Chrome was back in 2014.  Slice it however you want, but his Breeder’s Cup Juvenile is still the most impressive race any horse in this crop has run.  However, that was six months ago.  That’s a lifetime ago for horses of this age.  A lot of people are still betting him off that race more than anything else.  The Arkansas Derby was a help in reinforcing that belief, but that’s the race people are really pointing to for him.  In the last five years, the Derby favorite has an incredible record of 5 starts, 4 wins, 1 second, with only Bodemeister managing to squander a six-length lead to I’ll Have Another as the blemish.  All of those horses – even the much maligned by me Nyquist – had a 3yo resume that included multiple prep wins or ludicrously fast races.  (Bodemeister is the only one without multiple 3yo prep victories – he’s also the only loser of the bunch.)

Conclusion: Classic Empire is a very good horse, but in no way deserving of favoritism in this race.

So who do I like?  Well, there’s plenty of time for that, but I’ll start with three horses for now.

Always Dreaming: Don’t like the favorite?  Go for the second choice I suppose!  Always Dreaming joined the Todd Pletcher barn after a couple okay 2yo starts, and Pletcher waited to run him until he turned 3.  So what’s he done since joining Pletcher?  Well, he first broke his maiden by 11-1/2 lengths, then he won a four-horse allowance race in a fashion that was much more akin to a public work, then he won the Florida Derby by five lengths with a 97 Beyer, three points faster than Classic Empire’s Arkansas Derby win.  I feel like, with the majority of the field, I know about how good they are.  We have no idea how good Always Dreaming is.  This horse could be a monster and we just haven’t seen him face any competition yet.  I’m a little worried he hasn’t run THAT fast yet, and that’s my only concern.

Irish War Cry: Sigh, how about the third choice?!  This looks like the type of horse we love to bet.  He’s fast, owning two of the three fastest Beyers this year in his wins in the Holy Bull (101 Beyer) and the Wood Memorial (also a 101).  The big issue is the race in between those two, the Fountain of Youth.  He just ran AWFUL.  What the hell happened there?  We still don’t know to this day, but whatever it was, they seemed to figure it out in the Wood.  Now, if you care about these things, Irish War Cry finished VERY slow in the Wood… I don’t know if it means much though.  I tend not to think about these things too hard.  Anyway, draw a line through the Fountain of Youth, he’s easily the most accomplished 3yo in this crop.

McCraken: Ugh.  These are the types of horses we NEVER bet: overhyped closers that are working up a storm in the morning and are definitely going to take way too much money.  However, sometimes pace makes the race.  And I can’t find a closer with anywhere close to the talent McCraken has.  The Blue Grass is definitely cause for concern, but we bet 31/1 winner Irap in there specifically because there was no pace to fire at on paper, and that mostly came to fruition.  McCraken sat a little closer than he liked I think, and getting his trip on Saturday should be in the cards.  Also, if it rains like it’s threatening to, he’s going to devour the mud with his pedigree.