Data Driven Decision Daking

Ahhhh yes, for the first time in the history of the Kentucky Derby, we have our own pace and speed figures to pore over. There's two main points here:

1. If they're right, we are basically the only people in the world with them
2. We have no idea if they're right

These numbers are definitely interesting to look at. But, we are scratching the surface of the surface of the surface in regards to understanding their strengths, weaknesses, biases or lack thereof, etc.

But, I have to defer to my brother on these matters. He is, after all, the math wizard in the family. I, meanwhile, do not possess wizardry of any sort. The biggest takeaway I had, which you already mentioned, were the numbers on Classic Empire. In this context his Juvenile is still impressive, but maybe not quite as impressive. He still ran a big pace figure in the Juvenile to match a solid speed figure...but, he's well below some others on speed figures in this race...I definitely don't think we'll be using him as a key horse, but there's also a chance he isn't a second tier horse?

Irish War Cry's numbers are a bit troubling as well. His Holy Bull was clearly great, but his big number was earned on the lead. He looked good stalking in the Wood, but maybe he's not really as good sitting off of rivals?

McCracken's last race is crazy as well. Suddenly jumps to a huge new pace figure and doesn't fire at all. Did they just have him way to close to the pace while he wants to be a one run closer? The Blue Grass did look paceless on paper, maybe the jocks just went way faster than expected?

Yeah, State of Honor certainly seems more intriguing in this context. He's a weird horse. They put the blinkers on for the two races at Tampa when he set really hot fractions. Took them off last time when he tried to sit behind Always Dreaming. He has solid pace and speed figures. Tough horse to gauge.

The real standout on these things is just how screwy the Blue Grass was as a prep. Every horse coming out of it ran the fastest pace figure of their careers in that race. The two that ran way faster than usual, Tapwrit and McCracken, both came up empty late. Really feels like a race to just draw a line through for the two.

Speaking of preps...was there a good prep this year? In the past few years California horses have been tough, but there's nothing from California to trust this year, right? Do we think Florida was the home to the best runners this winter? Seems like Fair Grounds was lousy, Oaklawn seems to be worse than usual, but the Gulfstream preps seem pretty strong...