2018 NFL Survivor Pool Week 11

Lost a few more and we're down to 8!

Week 11 Pick (If embedded forms don't work for you)

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NFL Survivor Pool 2018 Week 10

Four suckers trusted Jason "The Clapper" Garrett and we're down to 11!

Week 10 Pick (If embedded forms don't work for you)

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2018 NFL Survivor Pool Week 9

100% success last week!  Yay!  I get to keep making these fun forms!

Week 9 Pick (If embedded forms don't work for you)

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2018 NFL Survivor Pool Week 8

I desperately hope you know the drill by now.

Week 8 Pick (If embedded forms don't work for you)

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2018 NFL Survivor Pool Week 7

OK, a week where everyone actually DID survive.  I think.  Guys, stop it.  Running this isn't fun anymore.

Week 7 Pick (If embedded forms don't work for you)

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2018 NFL Survivor Pool - Week 6

Seriously, EVERYONE survived?!  Guys, I've been out of this thing for weeks now.  Can you all just pick the Cardinals or something?  It's really depressing running this thing when you're dead.

Week 6 Pick (If embedded forms don't work for you)

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2018 NFL Survivor Pool - Week 5

Ho hum week with only one loser.  Onto October!

Week 5 Pick (If embedded forms don't work for you)

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2018 NFL Survivor Pool Week 4

Congrats if you survived Wipeout Week!  I know I didn't... So anyway, here's your pick form I guess.

Week 4 Pick (If embedded forms don't work for you)
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2018 NFL Survivor Pool - Week 3

A few brave souls gambled a bit with Washington and we had one person go a bit nuts with Detroit, but besides that, not much movement after a lot of favorites won outright.

Also, note that I've added email addresses and you'll now get an email with your pick as a receipt of sorts.  I got a lot of questions this time around about whether or not I got picks.  This should alleviate those concerns.

Links if you need 'em below...

Leaderboard
Week 3 Pick Form (If your device doesn't like embedded forms)

2018 NFL Survivor Pool - Week 2

Welp, thanks to the Saints and Steelers for clearing out a third of the pool.  If you're wondering why the Steelers are in there, the rules state your team has to win - "not losing" isn't good enough.

And with that, good luck!

Link for those with issues:

Week 2 Form

2018 NFL Survivor Pool Leaderboard!

Leaderboard is live!

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Already easily our biggest year - thanks everyone!

2018 NFL Survivor Pool!

Summer is winding down.  That sucks b/c it’s going to get cold soon.  However, it’s great because we can all stop pretending we care about baseball and focus on entertaining sports, like football.  That means it's time for the time honored tradition of a good ol’ Survivor Pool.  Yep, no terribly fancy bells or whistles here… Except the tiebreaker of course.

Rules

• Pick one team a week to win their game outright.  If you choose correctly, congrats!  You live to fight another week.  Choose wrong, and it’s GAME OVER MAN. 
• You may only choose a team ONCE throughout the season.  Look, any idiot could pick against the Jets every week (except their bye) and laugh all the way to the bank.  Sorry, you can’t use the other NFC West teams twice each.
• Picks will be submitted via a Google Form I post to our world famous blog (tourneypools.blogspot.com) as well as emailed out once I have wrangled up all the email addresses for participants.  The first week form will have a lot of questions (name, email, blood type, the usual stuff) so I know who to pay and how to contact you.  Subsequent weeks will just ask for your Entry Name and your pick.  The Week 1 Form is at the bottom of this post
• Entries will be $20 each & multiple entries are allowed.  As usual, the easiest way to pay me is PayPal to tourneypools@gmail.com or Venmo to tourneypools@gmail.com.  If that is a bridge too far, find me and give me money/a check.
• Entry deadline each week will be prior to the kickoff of the Sunday 1 PM ET games except Week 1, where we will leave the form open right up until the final game to encourage as much participation as possible.  Picking any Thursday/Saturday games is fine, but those picks must be in prior to their actual kickoff for them to count.
• It is YOUR RESPONSIBILITY to know which entries have which teams still alive & to submit entries on time.  I will not babysit you.  If you submit an entry using a team that you have previously used, or you fail to submit an entry prior the 1 PM ET kickoff of Sunday games, you’ll get the biggest favorite for the Sunday/Monday games based on the lines at http://www.bovada.lv, which is the website I use to check lines.
• I will be maintaining a leaderboard with all selections that you will be able to find a link to on our world famous blog (tourneypools.blogspot.com) once I have put it up.
• Just to cut this question off at the pass, if everyone is out prior to Week 8, I'll more than likely start another pool with the same rules, so be on the lookout for that.  Last year, everyone was knocked out by Week 4, so this is very possible.

Payouts

• 100% of the pool will be paid out & we will pay out the number of entries based on the number of participants.
• Payout structure will be announced sometime between week 1 and week 2 & will be posted on our world famous blog (tourneypools.blogspot.com).
• There are no ties at TourneyPools, if we can help it.  Here’s the tiebreaking procedure in the event that we have multiple people go out the same week and have finished high enough to get paid…

1. Margin of victory for your picks.
2. Margin of yards from scrimmage for your picks.  (Offense only, no special teams or turnover returns or whatever else you can think of.)  If this is somehow negative for a week, it will be rounded up to 0.

• If the tiebreaker rules are confusing, no worries, I’ll be tracking them on the leaderboard.

Questions/Comments

Email: tourneypools@gmail.com

PayPal ID: tourneypools@gmail.com

Venmo ID: tourneypools@gmail.com

Our World Famous Blog: tourneypools.blogspot.com

For those with devices that don't play nicely with embedded forms, here's a link: Week 1 Pick

Derby 2018 Post Mortem

Ok, time to wrap up this whole thing a few hours and a lot of rewatches later.  In terms of betting for us, we talked most of the week about hammering Justify with a few horses and trying to catch  $5+ tri, and... we didn't like Good Magic enough, so we basically made a few bucks and that's that.  Sure, he was 5/2 and how much money could be made, but you gotta take what the race gives you and adjust as such. Ultimately, I think we picked the race well, but Good Magic was one we just didn't use enough.  Notes on the race...

• Justify is who we thought he was as he scored an open lengths win despite dueling with Promises Fulfilled early and getting multiple challenges from stalkers: first Bolt d'Oro on the turn, and then finally Good Magic down the stretch.  It wasn't a fast win (his final Beyer speed figure of 103 is lower than both his debut and his Santa Anita Derby win), but it's hard to not be impressed with how he won.
• Good Magic got as good a trip as you could possibly hope for, and it just wasn't enough.  The six morning line favorites all figured they could get Good Magic's trip, so a lot of the betting for this race was really about who would get that trip.  Solid effort.
• Audible ended up with a pretty tough trip early, then some serious racing luck to get inside and have a good run.  
• Both My Boy Jack and Hofburg had tough trips and closed strong, so we could see them take some serious money if they continue on.  However, like we see every year, the issue with taking a closer in this race is that you're gonna need that racing luck.  Justify and horses of that ilk make their own luck, and you can see why we bet these dumb 5/2 shots every time they show up.
• Assuming the current Preakness field stays as is, it seriously might be nothing more than a public workout for Justify.  Only Bravazo (6th at 67/1) is confirmed to also come out of the Derby to challenge Justify in two weeks.  Of the new shooters confirmed, only Quip - who is also owned by Justify's principal owner WinStar Farms - poses any threat to finish within five lengths of Justify just based on paper.  Good Magic is at least under serious consideration, so we may get an actual race.

2018 Derby Master Thread

Want to keep up with all our Derby banter?  Here's every post so far!

Phil Pt 1 - Reverse the Curses

David Pt 2 - On Superstition

Phil Pt 3 - "Pace Makes the Race"... Simpler?

David Pt 4 - Longshots are for Losers

Phil Pt 5 - "Foo"d for Thought

David Pt 6 - "80s"d For Thought

Phil Pt 7 - Early Odds and Some Final Tiers

David Pt 8 - And This Too Must End

Phil Pt 9 - Post Mortem

Derby Discussion Part 8 - And This Too Must End

The early odds are definitely interesting, and kind of crazy. I've got too much left to look at to go searching right now, but we really need to start tracking how odds change from the end of Oaks Day to the time when the Derby actually runs Saturday. I know that the odds Friday give us a solid gauge, but we need to be better than saying it's solid and try to understand how accurate they are. Hey, this is a rant that should be a text to you Philip, but, I've written it, so it stays. It's like the old saying goes, "White water in the morning."

Anyway, in what could easily turn into a rant, but I won't let it, we know that we can't get TOO caught up in Derby odds. If you hit a trifecta in the Derby you will get a solid return. But, with that said, there are a couple of horses that the odds do make me re-evaluate a bit, and I think you hit on them somewhat. My Boy Jack is insanely overbet thus far, anything under 15/1 on him is crazy. He should be 20-25/1. Bolt d'Oro as sixth choice is good value. I was convinced Hofburg would be 12/1 or so, the lack of money on him really surprises me as I really expected him to be a wiseguy pick. Noble Indy at 49/1 is insane...it's Pletcher with a Louisiana Derby winner, a horse with those credentials should never be above 20/1. Instilled Regard at 99/1? I think he finishes in the top half of the field.

With that said, heading into Saturday I think I have a solid idea of what our tiers will be, and you don't have a rebuttal left to make, so for our reader (hi mom), here's kind of how we break down this field:

Tier 1 - Horses that we will key all of our bets around

Justify - he's in his own tier.

Tier 2 - Secondary picks, will leave in first place on some tickets and second place on all tickets

Mendelssohn - really just don't know what else to do with him.
Bolt d'Oro - Quality runner that should get the distance and offers moderate value in early pricing

Tier 3 - Horses that we will still use heavily, will be in most of our trifectas in second and third

Audible and Magnum Moon - I'll try to talk Philip into dropping them a tier, but he'll likely force them here
Noble Indy - The best value in the race
Hofburg - I'm probably going to force him into this tier at his current price

Tier 4 - The other horses we will use, i.e. mostly just third in tri's, probably not in first on any tickets

In post position order: Free Drop Billy, Flameaway, Good Magic, Lone Sailor, My Boy Jack (who would've been tier 3 if he was 20/1+), Enticed, Instilled Regard, Vino Rosso

Tier 5 - Wait, are you just betting every horse? No, these ones we won't really use at all

Firenze Fire, Promises Fulfilled (though Philip will get weak when we are placing bets and leave him third in stuff), Bravazo, Solomini, Combatant 

NOTE: Basically anything can run third in a 20 horse field with the right trip, so really, Tier 4 are horses we won't use much at all, and wouldn't really use in exactas, Tier 4 is basically "This horse might run third somehow" Tier 5 is "Nope." In our deepest tickets, we will even use Tier 5 third though, that would essentially be a ticket like a Justify/Mendelssohn, Bolt d'Oro/All that would cost $18 for a $0.50 trifecta.


Now, with those tiers laid out, I'll briefly give anyone (no one?) that cares my thoughts on our betting strategy for the Derby. Let me make this clear: I'm hammering Justify. It will be the biggest bet I've ever made on a Derby horse (Philip is cringing at these words). Beyond that, we will build trifectas with Justify first and using our other picks according to tier. Essentially we will have more money on a trifecta that is Tier 1/Tier 2/Tier 2 than we would a trifecta that's Tier 1/Tier3/Tier 4 (but we'd still definitely hit this "smaller" trifecta for at least $1). We will also have a lot of Pick 4s and Pick 5s built around Justify winning the Derby, but will also likely have Tier 2 and Tier 3 horses on SOME of our Pick 4 and Pick 5 bets, my guess is we will probably end up with Good Magic and Vino Rosso on a ticket or two as well when we wuss out, but those tickets will be MUCH smaller than the Justify tickets.

To sum it up, I really like Justify you guys. Yes, we are getting abuse from other horseplayers who think it's crazy to be this high on a horse with just 3 starts that's going to be favored. But, I don't care. We bet talent in the Derby, and Justify seems to have that in spades. Yes, the most talented horse gets beat sometimes, even often, but Justify is the only horse in this race that doesn't need a new career best to win tomorrow. But, since I don't want to only give out a 3/1 shot for tomorrow, I'll also give out a bomb to use in a non-Derby race - in the 10th race on the card, the Pat Day Mile, you can do a lot worse than 20/1 shot Givemeaminit, his four best career starts have come in one turn races, but they've sent him longer in his five other starts. Tomorrow he catches a race filled with speed and is the only true closer in the field. He'll make a run late and could be a threat to win at a huge price....

Well you know what they say, "All good things must come to an end." What they don't say, is that all rambling back and forth musings between weirdos about horse racing must come to an end. But, they should. Because they do. And this post is the end of our annual Derby discourse. It's been quite a ride. I think we've all really grown. I know that, for me, this has been the greatest seven months of my life. Looking back on it, it's hard to believe how far we've come. We shared some laughs, like when cousin Ned fell off that tractor, but we've also shed some tears, like when we learned about Uncle Sal's liver problems. Sorry, that was all pretty dumb. Justify.

Derby Discussion Part 7 - Early Odds and Some Final Tiers

Oaks day has come and gone and the good news for us is, well, we still got money for tomorrow I suppose.  I was hoping the Oaks would shed a little light on the Derby in the form of Rayya letting us know how good Mendelssohn's UAE Derby effort really was.  However, after a disasterous break, Rayya basically just loped around the track and never ran a step.  So much for that.

Next, we got some early Derby odds to look at!  Now, only a small faction of the money that will ultimately be in the pool has been bet, but the early odds tend to be a surprisingly good indicator of what the final odds will be.  So let's go in sequential order from favorite on down and what I'm thinking...

• Justify - 7/2 - With the wealth of talent in the field and how lightly raced he is, I'm not too surprised to see him float above that 3/1 ML.  He remains my top horse.
• Mendelssohn - 5/1 - Not too surprising, I still think we use him a ton.
• My Boy Jack - 5/1 - WHAT?!  I thought Hofburg was going to be the smoke horse this year, but apparently it's ol' Jack.  I do understand why as he's had some visually good efforts, but I don't know if you can pass 19 horses that are this good without all of them just completely spitting the bit.  Jack will likely end up closer to 12/1, but even that is very inadvisable.
• Audible - 6/1 - Starting to sour on him a little, maybe just b/c David keeps talking crap about it.  I think the price is fair, but I don't know if I love it compared to others.
• Good Magic - 8/1 - I think we'll be playing against him, and at least he's not going off at such a big price that we'll feel obligated to include him.
• Bolt d'Oro - 9/1 - Hmmmm.... If he floats up any more, he's gonna be mighty tempting.  
• Magnum Moon - 13/1 - Sigh... I knew his price was gonna look too good to believe.  This is the type of horse that you can really easily make a strong case for or against.  I think he drops a little bit - 10/1 or so - which would make us not using his a ton much easier.
• Vino Rosso - 18/1 - We don't seem to like him so.... bye.
• Hofburg - 24/1 - He's got enough talent to use at the bottom of stuff, but nothing crazy
• Lone Sailor - 28/1 - Meh.
• Free Drop Billy - 42/1 - 'k
• Promises Fulfilled - 42/1 - Whatevs.
• Noble Indy - 49/1 - We'll use him b/c you like him and if you can make a case for a horse that's gonna go over 30/1, you use them.
• Flameaway - 53/1 - He's usable in third.
• Enticed - 53/1 - Usable.
• Firenze Fire - 66/1 - No thanks
• Solomini - 67/1 - Probably too good to be at that price, so we'll use him a small bit in 3rd.
• Bravazo - 69/1 - Nice.  And no.
• Combatant - 79/1 - Good story, not usable here.
• Instilled Regard - 99/1 - We'll have him in stuff in 3rd, he shouldn't be the longest shot on the board.

Alright David, bring us home.  

Derby Discussion Pt. 6 - "80s"d For Thought

Ah yes, the time to spend hours and hours looking up quotes for something my mom might read if she's bored. I can think of no better use of my time...no, seriously, that was not intended as sarcasm. I really don't have anything better to do tonight. This is it.

But, I will say, I'm not really happy my fair brother decided to switch things up and use lyrics. Now I'm sitting here like, "Oh man, do I need to use lyrics?" I've wrestled with this for a while now, trying to decide if I should just abandon that plan and use old faithful tv show lines/characters. Or, if I should maybe throw my own curveball and use something else cool...like what letter in the alphabet each horse is like or something equally nonsensical. Then I went down a circuitous path of trying decide what artist I could use if I did go musicians...Not many artists that I love have 8,746 songs like the Foo Fighters. Other artists I love drop words in virtually every line that I hesitate to throw on here repeatedly...But then it hit me...I am going to change things up a bit since lyrics take too much time to search for, but I'll keep the same spirit. So, what am I comparing this years Derby horses to?

Something I truly love: 80s Songs! It's perfect. I'm excited. This is going to be fun.

Should I Stay Or Should I Go - The Clash

Yeah, these horses should probably just go (i.e. no chance): FIRENZE FIRE, BRAVAZO, COMBATANT.

Livin' On A Prayer - Bon Jovi

This is a perfect description for PROMISES FULFILLED. It seems like a near certainty that the Dale Romans trainee will be on the lead early, and he very well might be on the lead when they're halfway there, but at that point he will certainly be livin' on a prayer. He's probably in need of divine intervention to be close at the end.

Don't You Want Me - Human League

No FLAMEAWAY and SOLOMINI I do not want you. You're both beautiful in your way, but you're just not for me. 

Never Gonna Give You Up - Rick Astley

This is kind of a personal one. As a terrible gambler, sometimes you fall in love with a horse in a race...and you're really, really, wrong. This happened to me in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile with a a horse named FREE DROP BILLY. Now, the smart thing to do would be cut your losses and move on. I didn't do that. Instead I bet heavily on Free Drop Billy in all three of his subsequent starts, which have all been losses. I'm too far behind now to ever get even on him, but what am I gonna do? Turn around, let him down, and desert him? I don't think so. I will waste some money for my own sanity on this hopeless runner on Saturday.

Don't You (Forget About Me) - Simple Minds

First, I really love this song and listen to it almost every day. That doesn't have anything to do with this, I just wanted you to know that. But there are a few horses I'm not forgetting about despite big prices: INSTILLED REGARD, LONE SAILOR, and ENTICED. To be fair, I don't like anything about Lone Sailor except the fact that a couple of people I think aren't complete idiots like the horse and told me he's looked great training...so, I'll leave him third. I honestly didn't even know Instilled Regard was running here until the post draw, but the more I look the more intrigued I get. With a legit pace to fire at he could get up for third. Enticed was considered a top prospect to start the season. He was even favored over Audible in the Holy Bull (and ran awful). But, then he won the Gotham easily and ran a decent second to Vino Rosso in the Wood, with a tougher trip than Vino got. He could run third.

You Can't Hurry Love - Phil Collins

You truly can't hurry love, you also can't hurry HOFBURG or MY BOY JACK early on in a race. There's a very good chance these two will be last and second to last early. And, there's an equally good chance one will end up running third. I think Hofburg was better than Audible in the Florida Derby, I think he deserves to be 15/1 or so and I'd probably put him in my top 4 for this race. My Boy Jack is not as good, but he will come running late and does have a big turn of foot.

A Matter of Trust - Billy Joel

We're about to enter a stretch of horses that are going to take money and that I don't like. Personally I just don't trust them. That run starts with VINO ROSSO. Philip already pointed it out, but, he got smoked by Flameaway twice at Tampa. Flameaway is not considered a top tier contender by me, or basically anyone. Now Vino is going to be 12/1 after getting a dream set-up in a race that collapsed? I just don't trust him.

Girl You Know It's True - Milli Vanilli

OK, I cheated as this song is actually from 1990. But, I have a hilarious (in my mind, and my mind only) comparison to make here...So, this song, for me, fits GOOD MAGIC. Good Magic was a champion at two, he won a major prep, the Blue Grass, in his final pre-Derby start. And yet, just like when Milli Vanilli broke America's collective heart when we found out they were lip syncing, I think Good Magic will end up being exposed as a cut below the best of his generation this weekend.

Danger Zone - Kenny Loggins

I don't like AUDIBLE. He's fast, he's won four straight races by open lengths, and I just don't like him. He's bred to be a sprinter. He has to be hard ridden the entire race to give any effort. His works look terrible and he routinely gets outrun by so so horses in the morning. I get that he has run fast, I really do. But, I just don't like him. I don't think he wants this distance and I don't think he's as good as his last two suggest he could be. This is a strong stand against a fast horse, it's something of a Danger Zone (see what I did there), but it's a feeling I can't shake. If he is in the exacta I don't want to cash.

I Can't Go For That - Hall and Oates

Much like the entry I have just above this one, I get that everyone likes MAGNUM MOON. He's undefeated. He doesn't seem slow on paper. But, he hasn't beaten anything I consider to be good, and he veered right all down the stretch last time at Oaklawn. I just can't go for that in a horse that will be a top four choice. I wouldn't use him above third in anything.

Can't Fight This Feelin' - REO Speedwagon

My brother is all about numbers and logic. I am mostly about numbers and logic when it comes to betting horses, but I go by my gut sometimes. It's probably not smart. But, it's something I do. And, I just get a feeling that NOBLE INDY is being overlooked in this field. He's 30/1 on the morning line while Magnum Moon is 6/1 and Vino Rosso is 12/1? Noble Indy just ran a 95 Beyer in a race that collapsed around him, in other words it looks like a GOOD 95 to me. Vino Rosso and Magnum Moon ran 98's, but did so with DREAM set-ups. In other words I think they were suspect 98's. Now, that said, Noble Indy will be forced to sit a bit further back than he has so far in his career. But, you're getting a legit Todd Pletcher horse at 30/1 off a Louisiana Derby win? Why fight that feeling?

Every Rose Has It's Thorn - Poison

I think BOLT D'ORO is a rose. He's an extremely talented racehorse that's bred to go the Derby distance, has a Derby savant riding him (Victor Espinoza), and got a dream post draw. But, there's one major thorn that's been in his side...Justify. Justify beat him soundly in the Santa Anita Derby and figures to be favored over him this Saturday as well. If not for the existence of Justify, Bolt d'Oro would probably be the Derby favorite.

Everybody Wants To Rule The World - Tears For Fears

A perfect description for one of the hardest horses to figure out I've ever encountered leading up to the Derby...MENDELSSOHN. He has stakes wins on three continents in just seven career starts. There's only seven continents you guys, and Antarctica barely counts...so, he's basically won stakes races in half of the world's continents...again, IN SEVEN CAREER STARTS. If he wins the Derby Aidan O'Brien should make it his mission to get wins in the other three. Send him to South America, Africa, and Australia guys. Why not? Oh, and he has a pretty huge chance. He is the only horse in the race that I think could potentially beat Justify if Justify runs his race. 

Back In The High Life Again - Steve Winwood

I love that I've made two references to this song in our Derby discussion this year. Really, this is why I used 80's song, just to use this song again. Bob Baffert has won Derbys (Derbies?). He's even won a Triple Crown. The dude owns this race. On Saturday I fully expect him to be back in the high life again when JUSTIFY proves to be a legitimate Triple Crown threat. I'm sold on him. I am a believer. His races are brilliant. His running style fits the Derby. He looks like a champion. He works like a champion. Everything he's done has been so easy. I don't think we have any idea how good he might be yet, and he's already been better than everything else in this race. Just take the 3/1 Saturday, you're never getting that price on him again.

Derby Discussion Part 5 - "Foo"d for Thought

First off, apologies for missing a day.  I know what most of you are thinking... "Wait, you were gonna do this on a DAILY basis?!"  Look, I have a standard to uphold... Or something.  Where was I last night rather than regaling you with Derby analysis?  I was here:

More on that in a minute.

Second, good thing I did delay, b/c we have a ton more information now.  We've got post positions, ML odds, more work reports I'm really counting on David to add in, etc. etc. etc.  So, I'll be responding to, well, A LOT.  So buckle in!

While at the concert, I thought it was only appropriate to use Foo Fighters songs in our usual gimmick we stole from Bill Simmons and made worse years ago - pairing Derby runners with quotes that describe them.  I'll also be including what I feel their odds SHOULD be to advise betting on them, so this is not the actual morning line from Churchill Downs.  Ok, no more preamble, let's go!

Long road to ruin
There in your eyes
Under the cold streetlights
No tomorrow
No dead-end in sight

To our "toss" club of Firenze Fire, Free Drop Billy, Lone Sailor, Bravazo, and Combatant (all 200/1), the Derby trail is long, and ends in a bad place for you all.

These are my famous last words
My number's up bridges will burn

Of course the opening to "Bridges Burning" about going down and taking whomever with you would go to Promises Fulfilled (99/1).  He will run with you for a 1/2 mile and do it swiftly - tangle with him, and you're just as doomed as he is.  The only reason he's not a complete toss is that speed, b/c if you're betting a trifecta, you ALWAYS leave cheap speed in 3rd, especially when they'll be at least 30/1.

What if I say I'm not like the others?
What if I say I'm not just another one of your plays?
You're the pretender

I've seen too many horses like Hofburg (65/1) to be suckered in.  He's run one pretty good race that is getting blown WAY out of proportion.  I feel pretty confident saying he's your "smoke horse" this year that takes just an obscene amount of money for no reason other than everyone thinks he'll be good value, then he isn't.  Not only are there better horses in this field; there are better closers too.  I will save Hofburg for when he's a good play - The Belmont.

I'm learnin' to walk again
I believe I've waited long enough
Where do I begin?
I'm learnin' to talk again
Can't you see I've waited long enough?
Where do I begin?

I think there's a small case to be made for Instilled Regard (65/1), who started the season pretty high on the rankings with a nice LeComte win.  If he can get some of that old form back, he's at least usable in very small tri's/exactas.

end over end

end over end

end over end

I'm circling

This is about the best shot My Boy Jack (49/1) has - he's going to sit last and try to circle the field.  His Louisiana Derby effort was very weird as he tried that very move, and then just didn't sustain that run for the final head he needed to push past.  I think he's a solid horse, but that type of move rarely works in the Derby, and with how toploaded this group is, I have trouble seeing it.

Oh sweet ignition be my fuse
You have no choice you have to choose
Bid farewell to yesterday
Say goodbye I'm on my way

I'm using this one for both Solomini (65/1) and Noble Indy (33/1).  Both got very wide posts (17 and 19 respectively) and are stalkers that want to be semi-close to the pace in a race with a lot of horses like that.  So they have a choice on how to run, and I don't think either ends well: try to go early and end up 4-5 wide in that first turn, or try to drop back and close, something neither particularly wants to do.  I know David likes Noble Indy, so I save further thoughts on him until I hear what kind of trip David thinks he can work out from the 19 hole.

When I talked about it
Carried on
Reasons only knew

But it's you I fell into

Do you want a Mentos all the sudden? Anyway, I don't have much logic for thinking Flameaway (33/1) has a chance to hit the board in this race, but I think there's a case to be made. He just hasn't run a bad race and was right there with Good Magic in the Blue Grass last out. He's the type of honest, hard-knocking horse that you can expect will just show up and not crap the bed. I think if you're playing any decent-sized tickets, you have to include him.

Yeah you can run with me
If you wanted to

Enticed (33/1) is a weird one to figure.  Prior to the Wood Memorial, he was considered at least "in the mix" when it came to Derby discussions.  Now, after a meh Wood Memorial performance where he sat too close to a blistering pace, it feels like he's being just completely tossed aside.  I think there's a not-0% chance he can run with these, a bit like Flameaway.  

And tonight I thank the stars
As I count my lucky scars
For everything you've given me

I don't know why I'm remotely scared of Vino Rosso (24/1), as the horse is only in the race thanks to a dream setup in the Wood Memorial.  Prior to that race, he was on NOBODY's radar after consistently getting beat up on in Tampa.  Somehow, this horse is 12/1 on the morning line, and Flameaway is 30/1 after Flameaway beat him twice in Tampa by open lengths.  Horse racing is weird man.

Worth noting that with Vino Rosso, we're now in the clear top seven on the morning line, and I have to admit that I have no idea how betting is going to shake out in this race.  Justify will be your favorite, but outside of that, your guess is as good as mine.

One of these days
I bet your heart'll be broken
I bet your pride'll be stolen
I bet I bet I bet I bet
One of these days
One of these days

I know that Magnum Moon (15/1)  is 4-for-4 and has won all his races by open lengths, but I don't think he was facing much in Arkansas.  His Arkansas Derby win looks better on video than on paper, and I care about the latter far more than the eye test.  I think he cracks when he sees this field - currently, I believe the best horse he's ever faced is Solomini, who I put at 65/1 in this field.  One thing that worries me about Magnum Moon is his price.  He seems like one that could be lost in the shuffle for the reasons I just laid out.  I might steal a pct from Vino Rosso and put it on Magnum Moon just to justify betting him when he's up there at way more than his 6/1 morning line.

There goes my hero
Watch him as he goes
There goes my hero
He's ordinary

Good Magic (12/1) is the type of horse that if you liked him going into the year off his 2yo Champion campaign, he hasn't done anything to dissuade you from that opinion.  However, I don't think he's done enough to get any new fans, and that's how a Champion 2yo and winner of the Blue Grass ends up with a 12/1 morning line.  There are years where a horse like Good Magic would be your favorite or 2nd choice - this ain't one of those years.

All my life I've been searching for something
Something never comes never leads to nothing
Nothing satisfies but I'm getting close
Closer to the prize at the end of the rope

Man, it's tough to advocate for Bolt d'Oro (7/1) to actually win this race when all he does is come up short in big races.  Last year, he ran well in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile, but not well enough.  Last out, he ran well in the Santa Anita Derby, but he ran into a buzzsaw.  Horses like these always seem to be forgotten, so he's another one that could go off at a crazy nice price.

I, I'm a new day rising
I'm a brand new sky
To hang the stars upon tonight
I am a little divided
Do I stay or run away
And leave it all behind?

I'm pretty worried you're going to talk me out of Audible (6/1), who is the fastest horse in this race according to both our numbers and our dad's numbers.  He's dominated the Florida preps and maybe moved a bit too early in the Florida Derby, making his race look less impressive visually than it may have been.  I think he's a hell of a horse with a big shot here.

Hello
I've waited here for you
Everlong

After YEARS of throwing away money on suspect horses from Dubai, you're telling me we might have a legitimate freak from there in the form of Mendelssohn (6/1)?  SIGN ME UP!  Mendelssohn is one whose opinion for me will fluctuate depending on the results of the Oaks on Friday.  Rayya, who ran a very distant second to Mendelssohn last out, is coming back to run in the Oaks, and it's the only indication we're going to get of how good the UAE Derby really was. If she can at least run decent there, watch out.

One last thing before I quit!
I never wanted any more than I could fit into my head!
I still remember every single word you said,
And all the shit that somehow came along with it!
Still, there's one thing that comforts me
Since I was always caged and now I'm free

The more I look, the more I get the feeling that we have no idea how good Justify (3/1) actually is, and we're gonna find out on Saturday.  Another horse we haven't mentioned yet that we saw this with before was Big Brown, who just toyed with fields up to the Derby, only to toy with that field too.  This is a better group than Big Brown faced, but sometimes, you just don't overthink it and take the talent.  And that's Justify.