Derby Discussion Part 8 - And This Too Must End

The early odds are definitely interesting, and kind of crazy. I've got too much left to look at to go searching right now, but we really need to start tracking how odds change from the end of Oaks Day to the time when the Derby actually runs Saturday. I know that the odds Friday give us a solid gauge, but we need to be better than saying it's solid and try to understand how accurate they are. Hey, this is a rant that should be a text to you Philip, but, I've written it, so it stays. It's like the old saying goes, "White water in the morning."

Anyway, in what could easily turn into a rant, but I won't let it, we know that we can't get TOO caught up in Derby odds. If you hit a trifecta in the Derby you will get a solid return. But, with that said, there are a couple of horses that the odds do make me re-evaluate a bit, and I think you hit on them somewhat. My Boy Jack is insanely overbet thus far, anything under 15/1 on him is crazy. He should be 20-25/1. Bolt d'Oro as sixth choice is good value. I was convinced Hofburg would be 12/1 or so, the lack of money on him really surprises me as I really expected him to be a wiseguy pick. Noble Indy at 49/1 is insane...it's Pletcher with a Louisiana Derby winner, a horse with those credentials should never be above 20/1. Instilled Regard at 99/1? I think he finishes in the top half of the field.

With that said, heading into Saturday I think I have a solid idea of what our tiers will be, and you don't have a rebuttal left to make, so for our reader (hi mom), here's kind of how we break down this field:

Tier 1 - Horses that we will key all of our bets around

Justify - he's in his own tier.

Tier 2 - Secondary picks, will leave in first place on some tickets and second place on all tickets

Mendelssohn - really just don't know what else to do with him.
Bolt d'Oro - Quality runner that should get the distance and offers moderate value in early pricing

Tier 3 - Horses that we will still use heavily, will be in most of our trifectas in second and third

Audible and Magnum Moon - I'll try to talk Philip into dropping them a tier, but he'll likely force them here
Noble Indy - The best value in the race
Hofburg - I'm probably going to force him into this tier at his current price

Tier 4 - The other horses we will use, i.e. mostly just third in tri's, probably not in first on any tickets

In post position order: Free Drop Billy, Flameaway, Good Magic, Lone Sailor, My Boy Jack (who would've been tier 3 if he was 20/1+), Enticed, Instilled Regard, Vino Rosso

Tier 5 - Wait, are you just betting every horse? No, these ones we won't really use at all

Firenze Fire, Promises Fulfilled (though Philip will get weak when we are placing bets and leave him third in stuff), Bravazo, Solomini, Combatant 

NOTE: Basically anything can run third in a 20 horse field with the right trip, so really, Tier 4 are horses we won't use much at all, and wouldn't really use in exactas, Tier 4 is basically "This horse might run third somehow" Tier 5 is "Nope." In our deepest tickets, we will even use Tier 5 third though, that would essentially be a ticket like a Justify/Mendelssohn, Bolt d'Oro/All that would cost $18 for a $0.50 trifecta.


Now, with those tiers laid out, I'll briefly give anyone (no one?) that cares my thoughts on our betting strategy for the Derby. Let me make this clear: I'm hammering Justify. It will be the biggest bet I've ever made on a Derby horse (Philip is cringing at these words). Beyond that, we will build trifectas with Justify first and using our other picks according to tier. Essentially we will have more money on a trifecta that is Tier 1/Tier 2/Tier 2 than we would a trifecta that's Tier 1/Tier3/Tier 4 (but we'd still definitely hit this "smaller" trifecta for at least $1). We will also have a lot of Pick 4s and Pick 5s built around Justify winning the Derby, but will also likely have Tier 2 and Tier 3 horses on SOME of our Pick 4 and Pick 5 bets, my guess is we will probably end up with Good Magic and Vino Rosso on a ticket or two as well when we wuss out, but those tickets will be MUCH smaller than the Justify tickets.

To sum it up, I really like Justify you guys. Yes, we are getting abuse from other horseplayers who think it's crazy to be this high on a horse with just 3 starts that's going to be favored. But, I don't care. We bet talent in the Derby, and Justify seems to have that in spades. Yes, the most talented horse gets beat sometimes, even often, but Justify is the only horse in this race that doesn't need a new career best to win tomorrow. But, since I don't want to only give out a 3/1 shot for tomorrow, I'll also give out a bomb to use in a non-Derby race - in the 10th race on the card, the Pat Day Mile, you can do a lot worse than 20/1 shot Givemeaminit, his four best career starts have come in one turn races, but they've sent him longer in his five other starts. Tomorrow he catches a race filled with speed and is the only true closer in the field. He'll make a run late and could be a threat to win at a huge price....

Well you know what they say, "All good things must come to an end." What they don't say, is that all rambling back and forth musings between weirdos about horse racing must come to an end. But, they should. Because they do. And this post is the end of our annual Derby discourse. It's been quite a ride. I think we've all really grown. I know that, for me, this has been the greatest seven months of my life. Looking back on it, it's hard to believe how far we've come. We shared some laughs, like when cousin Ned fell off that tractor, but we've also shed some tears, like when we learned about Uncle Sal's liver problems. Sorry, that was all pretty dumb. Justify.