Derby 2018 Post Mortem

Ok, time to wrap up this whole thing a few hours and a lot of rewatches later.  In terms of betting for us, we talked most of the week about hammering Justify with a few horses and trying to catch  $5+ tri, and... we didn't like Good Magic enough, so we basically made a few bucks and that's that.  Sure, he was 5/2 and how much money could be made, but you gotta take what the race gives you and adjust as such. Ultimately, I think we picked the race well, but Good Magic was one we just didn't use enough.  Notes on the race...

• Justify is who we thought he was as he scored an open lengths win despite dueling with Promises Fulfilled early and getting multiple challenges from stalkers: first Bolt d'Oro on the turn, and then finally Good Magic down the stretch.  It wasn't a fast win (his final Beyer speed figure of 103 is lower than both his debut and his Santa Anita Derby win), but it's hard to not be impressed with how he won.
• Good Magic got as good a trip as you could possibly hope for, and it just wasn't enough.  The six morning line favorites all figured they could get Good Magic's trip, so a lot of the betting for this race was really about who would get that trip.  Solid effort.
• Audible ended up with a pretty tough trip early, then some serious racing luck to get inside and have a good run.  
• Both My Boy Jack and Hofburg had tough trips and closed strong, so we could see them take some serious money if they continue on.  However, like we see every year, the issue with taking a closer in this race is that you're gonna need that racing luck.  Justify and horses of that ilk make their own luck, and you can see why we bet these dumb 5/2 shots every time they show up.
• Assuming the current Preakness field stays as is, it seriously might be nothing more than a public workout for Justify.  Only Bravazo (6th at 67/1) is confirmed to also come out of the Derby to challenge Justify in two weeks.  Of the new shooters confirmed, only Quip - who is also owned by Justify's principal owner WinStar Farms - poses any threat to finish within five lengths of Justify just based on paper.  Good Magic is at least under serious consideration, so we may get an actual race.