Agreed on the pace. Usually, the Derby seems like an inscrutable mess in terms of the pace. You usually have at least three or four horses that look to be gunning for the early lead, and then just a mess of stalkers who like to lay just behind the leader(s) and a few deep closers that like to hang back 6+ lengths in the early going. And generally, one or two of these closers is a bit of a suckers bet (like stupid McCraken last year) that tend to look better than they truly are. This year, that does not seem to be the case. The pace seems surprisingly straightforward on paper, which means something weird will almost assuredly happen. For now, let’s consider what we know and introduce the Derby pace data I ran for the first time last year…
Like last year, the file has two tabs. The first is a summary of every prep race - who won, where they were early in the race, their speed figure (semi-home grown in our data), who was on the lead early, and their pace figure (also semi-home grown). The second is each of the perspective 20 horses' North American race record. (I say North American b/c we exclude a key race here, and that’s Mendelssohn’s impressive UAE Derby.)
Let’s get the obvious stuff out of the way…
Promises Fulfilled will be on the lead early in the Derby. If you look at column K of the All Runners tab, you can see how far many lengths behind the leader each horse was in the early stages of that race. Promises Fulfilled has only 0’s in that column b/c he’s ALWAYS on the lead. Last out in the Florida Derby, he also ran the highest pace figure of any horse in the race this year with a 115.
The following are going to be nowhere near the front in the early stages: Blended Citizen, Bravazo, Combatant, Firenze Fire, Free Drop Billy, Hofburg, Instilled Regard, Lone Sailor, & My Boy Jack. All of these horses also figure to be 25/1 or higher. Usually, when something weird happens in the Derby, it’s the result of enough longshots being in the mix early and screwing with the favorites or causing trouble when they’re fading and cutting off running lanes for talented closers. Weirdly, the latter group doesn’t seem to exist this year, which is really gonna mess up our dad’s betting, as he loves nothing more than betting on a closer that will be overbet and not get a good trip. C’est la vie.
The following have some potential to be near the lead and perhaps cause some trouble as they’re either fading or getting shockingly brave and running the race of their lives: Enticed, Flameaway, Noble Indy, Quip, Snapper Sinclair, Solomini, Vino Rosso. Looking at pace figures and recent running style, I actually think three of these – Enticed, Quip, and Snapper Sinclair – belong in the “nowhere near the front” group of nine I just rattled off, but we’ll see. And again, these three are also looking like 25/1+, so we’re now standing at 12 horses that could just be complete non-factors in the outcome of this race. Of everything that will be closing in this race, Vino Rosso, coming off a solid Wood Memorial win, is the only one I’d rate with any sort of decent chance at cracking the exacta.
So far, I’ve rattled off 18 of the 24 horses currently under consideration for the Derby. Of those 18, I’ve only said one that will be guaranteed to be in the pace picture early, with only an additional two (Flameaway and Solomini) maybe being in touch early in the race to have an influence on the early stages.
And this is why I call this race a six-horse race. The remaining six in the prospective field – Audible, Bolt d’Oro, Good Magic, Justify, Magnum Moon, and Mendelssohn – not only seem to tower over their 18 counterparts in terms of talent, they all also have the type of running style to be in touch with the early pace and not subject themselves to the “racing luck” of working a good trip from the back of the pack. It’s VERY reminiscent of the 2015 Derby that David already invoked where American Pharoah, Firing Line, and Dortmund were the three most talented horses in that group, and all were near the early lead and were able to make their own luck with clean trips. I think at this stage in the game, if someone offered you an even money bet on one of those six horses winning the Derby vs the field of 18 remaining horses, you take those six and laugh to the bank. (Although, truth be told, fair odds on them right now are probably closer to -200.)
That said, I think I can limit this group down even more, as two of the six – Good Magic and Magnum Moon – give me pause at this stage. Magnum Moon, so far at least, hasn’t run particularly fast from a pace or speed standpoint. Of what I would call the five major final prep races, Magnum Moon’s Arkansas Derby is the second-slowest of the group, only faster than Vino Rosso’s suspect Wood Memorial. I don’t believe he’ll be great value. Good Magic finally ran a race capable of competing in this field in his Blue Grass win, but until then, he struck me as a bit of plodder that’s a cut below the remaining four.
So, while David is down to a top 2, I’m at a top 4. I think our biggest disagreement is on Audible, who I think is VERY dangerous in this field. Let’s stop screwing around now David, and let’s really dig into these top 4. Unless you also wanna talk about Good Magic, who I could be tempted to include, but I have a feeling is going to take WAY too much money.
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