Wow, we have really boring opinions on this year's Derby thus far. Really, my take on this Derby is starting to make me question my entire existence. I'm sitting here looking at this race, and all I keep coming back to is how much I love the top two runners. Is this just me getting old and boring? Seeing things through the eyes of adulthood, and devoid of any remaining childhood wonder and creativity? Is that the point I have reached in my existence? Or, is this just taking what the universe is giving us this year and not trying to be too convoluted and cute with our picks?
Every year this point comes up in our discussion, but I think it's time to make it...the Derby is just another horse race. Yes, it is more scrutinized and it is unique in that it's a huge field and none of the horses have ever gone this distance before...but, it's still just a horse race. The fundamental rules are the same as every other race run, the horse that gets to the wire first wins. But, unlike most races, money from the general public is far more prevalent in the Derby than any other race. Last year Patch was hopelessly overmatched and went off at 6th choice because of his cute, blind in one eye, story. That might not seem like a big deal to people, but, it's a huge deal for the overall odds of a race. I just glanced at the opening night races at Churchill, the feature was an 8 horse stakes race, the longest shot on the board was 62/1. Last year, in a 20 horse Derby field, the longest shot was ONLY 58/1. If the Derby was run with zero fanfare and dumb money, there would be 300/1 shots in the race, Mine That Bird absolutely would've been 250/1+.
Here's the point I'm driving at dear reader (since there's probably one of you), the odds on the Derby are far different than normal races. Betting big prices in the Derby is typically a horrible proposition because the odds are all sort of condensed to the middle. Favorites go off at 4/1 that would be 2/1 any other day, longshots are 50/1 that should be 200/1. In other words while some people search for "value" by playing longer odds horses since "anyone can win," they are really doing the opposite of pursuing value.
We've mentioned the 2015 Derby a couple times already. It was another top heavy Derby like this year's seems to be. The favorite, American Pharoah, won at 5/2 odds. Firing Line, the fourth choice, was second at 9/1 odds. Dortmund was the heavy second choice at 4/1 and rounded out the trifecta. That tri paid $202 for a $2 bet. Even in 2016 when the top three choices ran 1-2-3 in order the $2 tri paid $173.That doesn't seem like awful value when the favorites stand out...
And, to me, the favorites do stand out. I think Justify is hands down the most impressive 3YO that's raced on American soil this spring. I think Mendelssohn is a uniquely talented racehorse that represents the best chance any Dubai shipper has ever had. And, I think Bolt d'Oro is the second most talented US based 3YO, and that he would be vying for favoritism if he hadn't run against Justify last out. We've talked about this, but if Bolt had gone to Arkansas and won that race with the same 102 he ran at Santa Anita he would be a standout second choice to Justify.
With all that said, there are a couple of longer shots that I think deserve a small look at least. To me, these are horses that are strong show contenders that maybe we leave in on one small pick 4 just in case one of them can catch lightning in a bottle this weekend...
Noble Indy - I think he's generally considered the worst of Pletcher's Derby chances. But, he's actually the one I like the most. While Vino Rosso, Magnum Moon, and Audible all got dream set-ups in their final preps, Indy was sitting just off hot fractions in a Louisiana Derby that completely collapsed. Lone Sailor and My Boy Jack, who finished second and third respectively, were next to last and last halfway through the race. Noble Indy sat second en route to winning the race. Meanwhile, the early leader ended up last, the horse that was third early (fellow Derby entrant Bravazzo) ended up 21 lengths behind Indy in 8th place. Now, the Louisiana Derby WAS SLOW so, there is that. But, as kind of the forgotten Pletcher entrant, Noble Indy could offer some value.
My Boy Jack - OK, he's not real fast with a top Beyer of 94 entering the race. But, of all the closers in the field he is the one that, visually, has shown the quickest turn of foot. Now, maybe that's just an optical illusion created by the other horses running slow...but, he seems to be an explosive closer in a field that doesn't really have any other horses fitting that description. Even horses that should take more money like Audible and Vino Rosso, that made up a lot of ground in recent starts, didn't show the type of quick burst acceleration that Jack seems to possess.
Hofburg - Hofburg is going to take money. People are going to talk themselves into this horse off of his second place finish behind Audible in the Florida Derby. That day, I think Audible got a little bit better trip and got out to make his move a little quicker than Hof who kind of waited behind rivals before getting room to run.
Outside of those three, I guess maybe Solomini, Flameaway, or Free Drop Billy have some potential to maybe run third as prices?
This is long enough, but you can probably get a sense for how my Derby tiers are starting to break down...
Monday, April 30, 2018
Derby Discussion Part 3: "Pace Makes the Race"... Simpler?
Agreed on the pace. Usually, the Derby seems like an inscrutable mess in terms of the pace. You usually have at least three or four horses that look to be gunning for the early lead, and then just a mess of stalkers who like to lay just behind the leader(s) and a few deep closers that like to hang back 6+ lengths in the early going. And generally, one or two of these closers is a bit of a suckers bet (like stupid McCraken last year) that tend to look better than they truly are. This year, that does not seem to be the case. The pace seems surprisingly straightforward on paper, which means something weird will almost assuredly happen. For now, let’s consider what we know and introduce the Derby pace data I ran for the first time last year…
Like last year, the file has two tabs. The first is a summary of every prep race - who won, where they were early in the race, their speed figure (semi-home grown in our data), who was on the lead early, and their pace figure (also semi-home grown). The second is each of the perspective 20 horses' North American race record. (I say North American b/c we exclude a key race here, and that’s Mendelssohn’s impressive UAE Derby.)
Let’s get the obvious stuff out of the way…
Promises Fulfilled will be on the lead early in the Derby. If you look at column K of the All Runners tab, you can see how far many lengths behind the leader each horse was in the early stages of that race. Promises Fulfilled has only 0’s in that column b/c he’s ALWAYS on the lead. Last out in the Florida Derby, he also ran the highest pace figure of any horse in the race this year with a 115.
The following are going to be nowhere near the front in the early stages: Blended Citizen, Bravazo, Combatant, Firenze Fire, Free Drop Billy, Hofburg, Instilled Regard, Lone Sailor, & My Boy Jack. All of these horses also figure to be 25/1 or higher. Usually, when something weird happens in the Derby, it’s the result of enough longshots being in the mix early and screwing with the favorites or causing trouble when they’re fading and cutting off running lanes for talented closers. Weirdly, the latter group doesn’t seem to exist this year, which is really gonna mess up our dad’s betting, as he loves nothing more than betting on a closer that will be overbet and not get a good trip. C’est la vie.
The following have some potential to be near the lead and perhaps cause some trouble as they’re either fading or getting shockingly brave and running the race of their lives: Enticed, Flameaway, Noble Indy, Quip, Snapper Sinclair, Solomini, Vino Rosso. Looking at pace figures and recent running style, I actually think three of these – Enticed, Quip, and Snapper Sinclair – belong in the “nowhere near the front” group of nine I just rattled off, but we’ll see. And again, these three are also looking like 25/1+, so we’re now standing at 12 horses that could just be complete non-factors in the outcome of this race. Of everything that will be closing in this race, Vino Rosso, coming off a solid Wood Memorial win, is the only one I’d rate with any sort of decent chance at cracking the exacta.
So far, I’ve rattled off 18 of the 24 horses currently under consideration for the Derby. Of those 18, I’ve only said one that will be guaranteed to be in the pace picture early, with only an additional two (Flameaway and Solomini) maybe being in touch early in the race to have an influence on the early stages.
And this is why I call this race a six-horse race. The remaining six in the prospective field – Audible, Bolt d’Oro, Good Magic, Justify, Magnum Moon, and Mendelssohn – not only seem to tower over their 18 counterparts in terms of talent, they all also have the type of running style to be in touch with the early pace and not subject themselves to the “racing luck” of working a good trip from the back of the pack. It’s VERY reminiscent of the 2015 Derby that David already invoked where American Pharoah, Firing Line, and Dortmund were the three most talented horses in that group, and all were near the early lead and were able to make their own luck with clean trips. I think at this stage in the game, if someone offered you an even money bet on one of those six horses winning the Derby vs the field of 18 remaining horses, you take those six and laugh to the bank. (Although, truth be told, fair odds on them right now are probably closer to -200.)
That said, I think I can limit this group down even more, as two of the six – Good Magic and Magnum Moon – give me pause at this stage. Magnum Moon, so far at least, hasn’t run particularly fast from a pace or speed standpoint. Of what I would call the five major final prep races, Magnum Moon’s Arkansas Derby is the second-slowest of the group, only faster than Vino Rosso’s suspect Wood Memorial. I don’t believe he’ll be great value. Good Magic finally ran a race capable of competing in this field in his Blue Grass win, but until then, he struck me as a bit of plodder that’s a cut below the remaining four.
So, while David is down to a top 2, I’m at a top 4. I think our biggest disagreement is on Audible, who I think is VERY dangerous in this field. Let’s stop screwing around now David, and let’s really dig into these top 4. Unless you also wanna talk about Good Magic, who I could be tempted to include, but I have a feeling is going to take WAY too much money.
Sunday, April 29, 2018
Derby Discussion Part 2: On Superstition
OK, before I say anything about Derby curses it does need to be mentioned that I am not just a little stitious...I am SUPER superstitious. I wore green socks and the same t-shirt for every game of UofL's 2013 title run THAT ABSOLUTELY DID HAPPEN!! The last song before I enter a racetrack needs to be Back in the High Life Again by Steve Winwood or I know I'll lose. I, not in a joking manner at all, blame my wife for Louisville's last second loss to Virginia this season because she walked downstairs right as the Virginia run started, I mean really, what other cause could there have been to disrupt the positive flow of universal mojo? I turn off games I bet when things aren't going my way. I don't shave for days or weeks if I think things in the world are going well for me. I absolutely understand there is no logic to any of this, and yet I adhere to my superstitious beliefs strictly and passionately.
Now, with that said...Derby curses are so stupid. You pointed out a number of cases on the alleged Apollo curse that basically show it's worthless to consider, but people are dumb and will still consider it. This isn't something that matters, like what socks I wear (which definitely does matter), this is just mass hysteria. Horses aren't trained like they used to be. In the 60s the average Derby starter entered the race on less than 10 days rest, in the 2010's that number has ballooned to 29 days since their last start. As horses run less and less it will became more and more likely horses with less than 5 starts, or no starts at 2 will win the Derby, it's simply a case of increased opportunity for it to happen.
The Dubai thing actually has some rational merit, i.e. it's really damn hard to run in a freaking desert and then ship around the world to win a 20 horse race in Kentucky. But, Mendelssohn appears to have a level of talent that no other Dubai shipper has ever possessed, so...there's that.
As you can maybe tell, the top two horses coming into this Derby, in my opinion at least, are Justify and Mendelssohn. They are horses with the aforementioned curses to overcome. They are also both potentially absolute superstars. It's unique to see a Derby field with two horses that could be this good. The only recent year I can think of that looked similar at all was 2015 where American Pharoah, Dortmund, Materiality, Frosted, and Carpe Diem all looked like really nice horses entering the race.
But, in 2015 you had five horses with big numbers. This year you really have only three...Justify (107 Beyer), Mendelssohn (106 Beyer...but in Dubai), and Bolt d'Oro (102 Beyer). Nothing else in the field has run a 100+ Beyer at 3. Only Justify, Bolt d'Oro, Magnum Moon, and Audible have been able to run two 95 Beyers. Everything else that is considered "fast" by this Derby's standard has only been "fast" once.
Now, Philip has already written a different version of most of what I just wrote. But, here's where I think we might disagree a bit. I don't think the other main contenders are on the same level as the top three. And, really, I don't think Bolt is on the level of the top two. I have issues fully buying into any of the other horses in this race as a win contender...super briefly on the other main options...
Good Magic - Was hard pressed to beat a really suspect field in the Blue Grass and hasn't run fast this year, I also don't think his third in the Fountain of Youth was a good third, he was under a ride the whole way.
Audible - He somehow won the Florida Derby by 3 lengths and didn't look impressive doing it. That seems crazy, but it's kind of a theme this year. He made up ground in the Florida Derby, but it wasn't with a quick turn of foot and an explosive move, it was more just grinding away as everything up front stopped.
Noble Indy and Vino Rosso - Essentially felt the same way as them I did watching Audible. They won preps while under pressure and never really looking particularly explosive.
Magnum Moon - Yet another "impressive" Pletcher prep winner. He won the Arkansas Derby by 4...but, again, he got a great trip, sat right on the rail, had an easy lead as they hit the stretch and then basically bolted to the right the whole stretch. Now, running erratically like that is TYPICALLY a sign of a tired horse or a distracted horse...neither of those options would bode well for a horse going longer in front of an 100K+ drunk people.
We'll get to other horses with a shot (spoiler...I don't think there really are any), but maybe we should talk pace a little bit? It seems almost too obvious this year, right? I'll let you take over here since this is getting long...
Now, with that said...Derby curses are so stupid. You pointed out a number of cases on the alleged Apollo curse that basically show it's worthless to consider, but people are dumb and will still consider it. This isn't something that matters, like what socks I wear (which definitely does matter), this is just mass hysteria. Horses aren't trained like they used to be. In the 60s the average Derby starter entered the race on less than 10 days rest, in the 2010's that number has ballooned to 29 days since their last start. As horses run less and less it will became more and more likely horses with less than 5 starts, or no starts at 2 will win the Derby, it's simply a case of increased opportunity for it to happen.
The Dubai thing actually has some rational merit, i.e. it's really damn hard to run in a freaking desert and then ship around the world to win a 20 horse race in Kentucky. But, Mendelssohn appears to have a level of talent that no other Dubai shipper has ever possessed, so...there's that.
As you can maybe tell, the top two horses coming into this Derby, in my opinion at least, are Justify and Mendelssohn. They are horses with the aforementioned curses to overcome. They are also both potentially absolute superstars. It's unique to see a Derby field with two horses that could be this good. The only recent year I can think of that looked similar at all was 2015 where American Pharoah, Dortmund, Materiality, Frosted, and Carpe Diem all looked like really nice horses entering the race.
But, in 2015 you had five horses with big numbers. This year you really have only three...Justify (107 Beyer), Mendelssohn (106 Beyer...but in Dubai), and Bolt d'Oro (102 Beyer). Nothing else in the field has run a 100+ Beyer at 3. Only Justify, Bolt d'Oro, Magnum Moon, and Audible have been able to run two 95 Beyers. Everything else that is considered "fast" by this Derby's standard has only been "fast" once.
Now, Philip has already written a different version of most of what I just wrote. But, here's where I think we might disagree a bit. I don't think the other main contenders are on the same level as the top three. And, really, I don't think Bolt is on the level of the top two. I have issues fully buying into any of the other horses in this race as a win contender...super briefly on the other main options...
Good Magic - Was hard pressed to beat a really suspect field in the Blue Grass and hasn't run fast this year, I also don't think his third in the Fountain of Youth was a good third, he was under a ride the whole way.
Audible - He somehow won the Florida Derby by 3 lengths and didn't look impressive doing it. That seems crazy, but it's kind of a theme this year. He made up ground in the Florida Derby, but it wasn't with a quick turn of foot and an explosive move, it was more just grinding away as everything up front stopped.
Noble Indy and Vino Rosso - Essentially felt the same way as them I did watching Audible. They won preps while under pressure and never really looking particularly explosive.
Magnum Moon - Yet another "impressive" Pletcher prep winner. He won the Arkansas Derby by 4...but, again, he got a great trip, sat right on the rail, had an easy lead as they hit the stretch and then basically bolted to the right the whole stretch. Now, running erratically like that is TYPICALLY a sign of a tired horse or a distracted horse...neither of those options would bode well for a horse going longer in front of an 100K+ drunk people.
We'll get to other horses with a shot (spoiler...I don't think there really are any), but maybe we should talk pace a little bit? It seems almost too obvious this year, right? I'll let you take over here since this is getting long...
Derby 2018 Kickoff - Reverse the Curse(s)!
By Phil
Holy Week has graced us once again, and with that, comes the ramblings of two man-children claiming they can predict one of the most unpredictable events in all of sports - 20 animals running in a circle for a longer distance than any of them have ever run! If you want to know how we did last year, I posted a 2017 Derby post mortem on the Monday after the race, so enjoy that. Now, time to get into this field. As usual, Phil will kick it off, and David always gets the last word.
Normally, David and I try not to talk too much about the race before starting, but we've already hopped in a bit. I think we both agree that this isn't your prototypical Derby with a handful of horses at the top, some "just happy to be here" clunkers at the bottom, and a bevy of interesting mid-range odds horses that could have some hidden form that there sitting on. That "fun" group of 10/1-25/1 shots that could upset the apple cart and you can build bets around? They just aren't here this year. This is one of the most top-heavy Derbies I've seen in a while. Just to give you an idea, I'm going to throw out two resumes for the uninformed....
Holy Week has graced us once again, and with that, comes the ramblings of two man-children claiming they can predict one of the most unpredictable events in all of sports - 20 animals running in a circle for a longer distance than any of them have ever run! If you want to know how we did last year, I posted a 2017 Derby post mortem on the Monday after the race, so enjoy that. Now, time to get into this field. As usual, Phil will kick it off, and David always gets the last word.
- Good Magic - Your Champion 2yo comes from the barn of Chad Brown, perhaps the top trainer east of California, and will be ridden by top jockey Jose Ortiz. After winning the biggest race of the 2yo season in 2017, the Breeder's Cup Juvenile, he returned off a five-month break to run a solid 3rd in the Fountain of Youth and followed that up with a 1-1/4 length win in the biggest prep race at Keeneland, The Blue Grass.
- Noble Indy - Pretty nice horse from the Todd Pletcher barn that the main jockey for Pletcher, John Velasquez, opted not to ride on Saturday. After starting his career 2-for-2, Noble Indy shipped to the Fair Grounds for The Risen Star, which has proven to be a pretty weak prep this year. He ran third there, but it was only his third start. After that, Noble Indy did win the Louisiana Derby by a neck over Lone Sailor, a horse being pegged at 50/1 currently in DRF's Derby Watch.
Now, Good Magic sounds like he's probably one of the top rated horses while Noble Indy is a bit of a rank outsider, no? Well, according to the DRF Derby Watch, Good Magic is currently the 6th choice in their eyes, and Noble Indy is.... 8th. Usually, when David and I get down to the nitty gritty of figuring out betting strategy for the Derby, we need five tiers to classify horses. This year, we may only need three - horses who can legitimately win, horses who might be able to clunk up third, and complete tosses.
So, does that mean there's no value to be found in betting the Derby this year? Of course not, and that's thanks to one of my best friends when it comes to Derby betting - SILLY SUPERSTITIONS! With the Derby consistently being the most heavily-scrutinized race of the year, people tend to forget something that David always likes to say - it's "just another horse race." While I find that to be a bit dismissive of all the variables at play here, he's not totally wrong in the sense that you'll here a lot of things about historical precedence that simply do not matter. Here's the two big ones you'll hear, and why they don't matter...
The Curse of Apollo - Apollo won the 8th edition of the Kentucky Derby back in 1882. He was a gelding, so his bloodlines have zero effect on the Derby at this point, so why does he STILL matter? Well, he also happens to be the last Derby winner to win the race without having ever started as a 2yo. Horseplayers refer to this as "The Curse of Apollo" and seem to think that horses without a 2yo start simply cannot win the race. However, any reasonable person knows that's a load of crap. With the way horses are conditioned at this point and now race less and less, these historical trends just don't matter. For a long time, you couldn't win the Derby with only two races in your 3yo season, and you had to go back to Iron Liege in 1957 to find the last horse who did that. Now, good luck finding a horse that has MORE than two preps, and since 2010, five of your eight Derby winners did so with only two preps.
The Curse is going down, and the only question is when. In 2000, Fusaichi Pegasus won the Derby, only keeping the record alive by a case of superficiality, as he debuted only a week before turning 3. In 2012, Derby favorite Bodemeister took a six-length lead into the stretch, only to be caught by I'll Have Another and nearly putting the Curse down for good.
This year, you have two major players looking to reverse the curse in Magnum Moon and your sure-to-be favorite, Justify. They both look to be supremely talented, currently undefeated and winning their final preps in relative walkovers. In the time we've been writing these previews, I would say that far and away the two most talented horses we've seen on paper coming into the Derby are Bodemeister in 2012 and American Pharoah in 2015. Justify is in that group, and he may be #1. I still need convincing to play him, but thanks to the Curse, you're gonna get a pretty square price on a supremely talented horse, much like with Bodemeister five years ago.
The Dubai Curse - This one isn't so much a curse as an obvious trend - no horse who has ran their final prep in the UAE Derby has ever even hit the board in the Derby. It's not terribly shocking when you consider that these horses are relatively young and shipping from quite literally halfway around the world to run against 19 other horses that are in prime condition.
So why is 2018 UAE Derby winner Mendelssohn different? Two reasons. First, he's proven he can do this already, as he shipped from the UK to California off only three weeks rest as a 2yo to win the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Turf. Second, he just might be an absolute freak of nature, as he won that UAE Derby by an astounding 18-1/2 lengths. How big of a gap is that between Mendelssohn and 2nd place finisher Rayya? That's the amount Always Dreaming beat Hence by in last year's Derby. By the way, Hence finished 11th.
I'll save thoughts for other horses for later b/c I've already gone on long for a first post, but that's what I find fascinating about this Derby - I think we're going to see some shocking amount of value for very talented horses. I'll let David expand more, but I think this is basically a six-horse race with the other 14 just vying for third maybe. What kind of odds you get on those six is going to be fun to see. I don't think a horse like Good Magic is nearly as talented as Justify or Mendelssohn, but there are going to be people who stubbornly will not bet the latter two. Additionally, Good Magic is the type of horse that if you talked yourself into him early on in the Derby prep season, he hasn't given you a reason to jump off. This feels like a Derby where you're going to have to take a big stand against some very good horses if you want to get a good payoff. David, I know you have more thoughts here.