Wow, we have really boring opinions on this year's Derby thus far. Really, my take on this Derby is starting to make me question my entire existence. I'm sitting here looking at this race, and all I keep coming back to is how much I love the top two runners. Is this just me getting old and boring? Seeing things through the eyes of adulthood, and devoid of any remaining childhood wonder and creativity? Is that the point I have reached in my existence? Or, is this just taking what the universe is giving us this year and not trying to be too convoluted and cute with our picks?
Every year this point comes up in our discussion, but I think it's time to make it...the Derby is just another horse race. Yes, it is more scrutinized and it is unique in that it's a huge field and none of the horses have ever gone this distance before...but, it's still just a horse race. The fundamental rules are the same as every other race run, the horse that gets to the wire first wins. But, unlike most races, money from the general public is far more prevalent in the Derby than any other race. Last year Patch was hopelessly overmatched and went off at 6th choice because of his cute, blind in one eye, story. That might not seem like a big deal to people, but, it's a huge deal for the overall odds of a race. I just glanced at the opening night races at Churchill, the feature was an 8 horse stakes race, the longest shot on the board was 62/1. Last year, in a 20 horse Derby field, the longest shot was ONLY 58/1. If the Derby was run with zero fanfare and dumb money, there would be 300/1 shots in the race, Mine That Bird absolutely would've been 250/1+.
Here's the point I'm driving at dear reader (since there's probably one of you), the odds on the Derby are far different than normal races. Betting big prices in the Derby is typically a horrible proposition because the odds are all sort of condensed to the middle. Favorites go off at 4/1 that would be 2/1 any other day, longshots are 50/1 that should be 200/1. In other words while some people search for "value" by playing longer odds horses since "anyone can win," they are really doing the opposite of pursuing value.
We've mentioned the 2015 Derby a couple times already. It was another top heavy Derby like this year's seems to be. The favorite, American Pharoah, won at 5/2 odds. Firing Line, the fourth choice, was second at 9/1 odds. Dortmund was the heavy second choice at 4/1 and rounded out the trifecta. That tri paid $202 for a $2 bet. Even in 2016 when the top three choices ran 1-2-3 in order the $2 tri paid $173.That doesn't seem like awful value when the favorites stand out...
And, to me, the favorites do stand out. I think Justify is hands down the most impressive 3YO that's raced on American soil this spring. I think Mendelssohn is a uniquely talented racehorse that represents the best chance any Dubai shipper has ever had. And, I think Bolt d'Oro is the second most talented US based 3YO, and that he would be vying for favoritism if he hadn't run against Justify last out. We've talked about this, but if Bolt had gone to Arkansas and won that race with the same 102 he ran at Santa Anita he would be a standout second choice to Justify.
With all that said, there are a couple of longer shots that I think deserve a small look at least. To me, these are horses that are strong show contenders that maybe we leave in on one small pick 4 just in case one of them can catch lightning in a bottle this weekend...
Noble Indy - I think he's generally considered the worst of Pletcher's Derby chances. But, he's actually the one I like the most. While Vino Rosso, Magnum Moon, and Audible all got dream set-ups in their final preps, Indy was sitting just off hot fractions in a Louisiana Derby that completely collapsed. Lone Sailor and My Boy Jack, who finished second and third respectively, were next to last and last halfway through the race. Noble Indy sat second en route to winning the race. Meanwhile, the early leader ended up last, the horse that was third early (fellow Derby entrant Bravazzo) ended up 21 lengths behind Indy in 8th place. Now, the Louisiana Derby WAS SLOW so, there is that. But, as kind of the forgotten Pletcher entrant, Noble Indy could offer some value.
My Boy Jack - OK, he's not real fast with a top Beyer of 94 entering the race. But, of all the closers in the field he is the one that, visually, has shown the quickest turn of foot. Now, maybe that's just an optical illusion created by the other horses running slow...but, he seems to be an explosive closer in a field that doesn't really have any other horses fitting that description. Even horses that should take more money like Audible and Vino Rosso, that made up a lot of ground in recent starts, didn't show the type of quick burst acceleration that Jack seems to possess.
Hofburg - Hofburg is going to take money. People are going to talk themselves into this horse off of his second place finish behind Audible in the Florida Derby. That day, I think Audible got a little bit better trip and got out to make his move a little quicker than Hof who kind of waited behind rivals before getting room to run.
Outside of those three, I guess maybe Solomini, Flameaway, or Free Drop Billy have some potential to maybe run third as prices?
This is long enough, but you can probably get a sense for how my Derby tiers are starting to break down...
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